ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
The reality is that Leeds are likely to get over 100 points and Sunlan are likely to get 90 or just under and so, in all probability, the success of our season now hinges on how we and Burnley perform.
Chart 1 shows the tables and results for all 4 teams after 35 games but our focus is on Burnley, and we are just 2 points ahead of them with 11 games to go. In order to think about how the season might end, we need to look in detail at how those 11 games might turn out for both teams.
Chart 1:
Graph 1 shows the positions of all the Top 4 after Matchday 35 and illustrates the point that Sunlan are drifting – Leeds may be catchable, with a lot of favourable winds, but that would only be a small cherry on the very large cake of promotion.
Graph 1:
Chart 2 shows the games that we and Burnley have to come – along with a prediction of the points that I think each team might get in each of those 22 matches. I have tried to be realistic, rather than optimistic.
Chart 2:
Graph 2 illustrates the results of all of the Blades and Burnley results so far, and includes forecast lines based on my forecasts from Chart 2. Basically, in this scenario we end where we are now, with a 2-point margin, but it actually has us on equal points after our Coventry game. With an end-of-season forecast of Blades 96, Burnley 94 which includes a draw at Turf Moor, it only takes a Burnley win in that game to make the forecast Blades 95, Burnley 96! It's incredible how close we have been for the whole season.
Graph 2:
So basically, at the moment, it is far too close to call. Also, in our last game, if Blackburn are (i) already secure in the playoffs – or (ii) if they only need a point – or (iii) if they desperately need a win - will make for an entirely different afternoon. Millwall are likely to be “already on the beach” at Burnley.
It’s all pretty tense – but it sure as hell beats the end of last season!
In terms of XG stuff our QPR game XG was
QPR 1.3 – Blades 0.6
Which shows the value of scoring low XG goals, like Ty’s screamer. We don’t create many high XG chances for poachers like Cannon to tap in, so we need to take more low XG shooting opportunities, like for Ty’s goal.
Our next game is on Saturday against Preston at Bramall Lane.
Preston have scored 17 goals in their 17 away games with an XG of 17.2 and conceded 27 with an XGA of 24.3. Blades have scored 25 in 17 home games with an XG of 25.3 and conceded 13 with an XGA of 16.
So the stats would probably suggest 2-1 Blades or 1-1, with 1-0 Blades being the next most likely result.
The Bluebirds failed to fly over the rainbow for us tonight – so let’s hope the Lillywhites wave the white flag at Bramall Lane and the Hatters go mad in Burnley on Saturday!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Chart 1 shows the tables and results for all 4 teams after 35 games but our focus is on Burnley, and we are just 2 points ahead of them with 11 games to go. In order to think about how the season might end, we need to look in detail at how those 11 games might turn out for both teams.
Chart 1:
Graph 1 shows the positions of all the Top 4 after Matchday 35 and illustrates the point that Sunlan are drifting – Leeds may be catchable, with a lot of favourable winds, but that would only be a small cherry on the very large cake of promotion.
Graph 1:
Chart 2 shows the games that we and Burnley have to come – along with a prediction of the points that I think each team might get in each of those 22 matches. I have tried to be realistic, rather than optimistic.
Chart 2:
Graph 2 illustrates the results of all of the Blades and Burnley results so far, and includes forecast lines based on my forecasts from Chart 2. Basically, in this scenario we end where we are now, with a 2-point margin, but it actually has us on equal points after our Coventry game. With an end-of-season forecast of Blades 96, Burnley 94 which includes a draw at Turf Moor, it only takes a Burnley win in that game to make the forecast Blades 95, Burnley 96! It's incredible how close we have been for the whole season.
Graph 2:
So basically, at the moment, it is far too close to call. Also, in our last game, if Blackburn are (i) already secure in the playoffs – or (ii) if they only need a point – or (iii) if they desperately need a win - will make for an entirely different afternoon. Millwall are likely to be “already on the beach” at Burnley.
It’s all pretty tense – but it sure as hell beats the end of last season!
In terms of XG stuff our QPR game XG was
QPR 1.3 – Blades 0.6
Which shows the value of scoring low XG goals, like Ty’s screamer. We don’t create many high XG chances for poachers like Cannon to tap in, so we need to take more low XG shooting opportunities, like for Ty’s goal.
Our next game is on Saturday against Preston at Bramall Lane.
Preston have scored 17 goals in their 17 away games with an XG of 17.2 and conceded 27 with an XGA of 24.3. Blades have scored 25 in 17 home games with an XG of 25.3 and conceded 13 with an XGA of 16.
So the stats would probably suggest 2-1 Blades or 1-1, with 1-0 Blades being the next most likely result.
The Bluebirds failed to fly over the rainbow for us tonight – so let’s hope the Lillywhites wave the white flag at Bramall Lane and the Hatters go mad in Burnley on Saturday!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
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