Pathway to the Playoffs

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Can probably only afford to drop points in 4 or maybe even 3 matches to make it. Have to beat Wrexham and probably Birmingham. 10 wins, 3 defeats is very likely enough, but maybe not if one of those 3 losses is against Wrexham

It seems counterintuitive but tonight is probably the closest thing to a 'free hit' we have left
 



YES Blade said:
It’s always been the issue, 6 points has seemed a small margin to catch but we’ve still needed to rely on 10 teams having worse records than us
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We are closing teams down though. There's only Wrexham, Birmingham and Southampton that seem to have found real form. That form won't last all the way and we still have to play 2 of them.

This was the table 8 games back.
1772005088348.webp

We've Clawed points back on loads inbetween:
  • 4pts back on Preston.
  • 6 on Watford
  • 9 on Stoke
  • 2 on Bristol C
  • 2 on QPR
A win tonight trims them further.

We just need to worry about ourselves and win our own games.

I'm not suggesting it's possible, but a win tonight puts us 9 points off THIRD!!!
 
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mattbianco1 said:
Clearly not because that table i have put up above was between Leicester and Charlton games, so we got FURTHER away in the next 2 games, then the 6 that followed, clawed us back in contention
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Ok we will see who’s right in a couple of months, get ready for I told you so !!


Hope I am wrong tho !!!
 
IMG_5050.webp
Last time we played Coventry this season this was the league table.

We effectively started our season after this and started to hit more consistent form.

11 losses in 14 though was crazy & it shows how far we’ve come.

Pigs have only picked up 3 points since which is quite funny too.
 
mattbianco1 said:
We are closing teams down though. There's only Wrexham, Birmingham and Southampton that seem to have found real form. That form won't last all the way and we still have to play 2 of them.

This was the table 8 games back.
View attachment 231938

We've Clawed points back on loads inbetween:
  • 4pts back on Preston.
  • 6 on Watford
  • 9 on Stoke
  • 2 on Bristol C
  • 2 on QPR
A win tonight trims them further.

We just need to worry about ourselves and win our own games.

I'm not suggesting it's possible, but a win tonight puts us 9 points off THIRD!!!
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I think passing Southampton and Wrexham, even if we beat them both is a step too far.
Win tonight and I might change my view(again !).
 
The longest winning run this season is boro at 6 wins . Winning 3 on the trot or more is very tough in this league in which case I'd say clawing the points back on those above us is very unlikely.

Of course we can give it a go but its a long shot .
 
The Fox said:
The longest winning run this season is boro at 6 wins . Winning 3 on the trot or more is very tough in this league in which case I'd say clawing the points back on those above us is very unlikely.

Of course we can give it a go but its a long shot .
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We'll win our last 8 games
 
mattbianco1 said:
Wrexham don't seem to be letting anything slip.

If we win 3-0, we climb 4 places to 11th.
Any kind of win puts us just 2 points off 7th & 8th - unless Birmingham win at Millwall. That would put them 7th and we'd be 4 behind them still.

The key is to just keep winning
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I wouldn’t be surprised if Millwall and Hull dropped out of the playoffs, so those places could be up for grabs, but as you say, we need to keep winning.

I think our chances are slim to none unless we get on an unbelievable run. Nothing less than a win tonight will do.
 
We are one of the form teams over every timeframe on Flashscore bar the 30 match one. We just need to cut out the blips which have blighted our season.

Last 5 matches:
  1. Southampton 13pts
  2. Birmingham 11pts
  3. Millwall 10pts, +5GD, 10GF
  4. Swansea 10pts, +5GD, 8GF
  5. United 10pts, +3GD
  6. Wrexham 10pts, +2GD
Against the other sides above us, we've gained 2 points on Boro; 3 points on Coventry, Hull, Bristol & Ipswich; 4 points on Derby & Preston and 5 points on Watford


Last 10 matches:
  1. Boro 20pts, +9GD
  2. Millwall 20pts, +8GD
  3. Ipswich 20pts, +7GD
  4. Wrexham 20pts, +5GD
  5. United 19pts, +6GD
  6. Hull 19pts, +5GD
  7. Birmingham 19pts, +4GD
Against the other sides above us, we've gained 1 point on Southampton; 2 points on Swansea; 3 points on Derby; 5 points on Coventry & Bristol C; 7 points on QPR & Preston and 9 points on Watford.


Last 15 matches:
  1. Ipswich 30pts
  2. Hull 29pts
  3. Boro 27pts, +9GD
  4. Wrexham 27pts, +5GD
  5. United 26pts, +9GD, 27GF
  6. Norwich 26pts, +9GD, 24GF
  7. Swansea 26pts, +7GD
Against the other sides above us, we've gained 1 point on Millwall; 3 points on Southampton; 4 points on Coventry & Derby; 5 points on Bristol C, Birmingham & Watford; 7 points on QPR and 8 points on Preston.


Last 20 matches:
  1. Ipswich 38pts
  2. Boro 37pts, +12GD
  3. Coventry 37pts, +8GD
  4. United 36pts, +14GD
  5. Wrexham 36pts, +8GD
  6. Southampton 35pts, +14GD
  7. Hull 35pts, +5GD
Against the other sides above us, we've gained 4 points on Millwall; 5 points on Birmingham; 7 points on Watford, QPR & Swansea; 8 points on Bristol C & Derby and 12 points on Preston.

Conclusions:
  • Coventry's form, for all Wilder's bluster in the press conference, hasn't been great for 15 matches. They're 10th in the 5-match form table and 12th in the 10- and 15-match ones. Their season is resting on that blistering start but the win against Boro might be a turning point for them.

  • Wrexham and Millwall have been remarkably consistent with us, posting returns within a point of ours for each of the 5, 10 & 15 match views.

  • Preston have dropped off a cliff and have posted 15th-18th level results for the past 20 matches (24 pts, equivalent to 55pts over the season)

  • Those red cards at Charlton are looking more and more likely to break our season. I don't think it's unrealistic to say we'd have got 4 additional points (+3 vs Charlton, +1 vs Southampton) had we not gone down to 9 at the Valley. That would have put us top of every form table between 10 and 20 matches.

  • As a result, we frankly have to beat Hull and Wrexham at the Lane and probably Bristol C and Birmingham away if we're going to catch them. Those 3-point swings (let's not think about losing any of those!) will be huge, as will the potential momentum shifts.

  • Bristol C, QPR, Watford, Swansea and Derby are midtable sides performing like midtable sides. We should pass them over the next 5-6 matches to put ourselves on the fringes of the play-offs, with probably 3-6 points separating us, Birmingham, Southampton, Wrexham, Millwall and Hull going into the final 6 matches.
 
Although looking at hindsight is a wonderful thing realistically, we are where we are playing catchup because of individual and team errors both under Selles and Wilder.

I have handpicked 7 games below where on paper we should have won (in bold) the other 2, we had the lead and should have taken it all the way.
Norwich home - 2 points
Charlton home - 3 points
Southampton home - 3 points
Milwall Home - 3 points
West Brom away - 3 points
Wrexham away - 3 points
Charlton away - 3 points

I know it is a big ask saying this and that should have happened but the above there represents 20 dropped points, from last season we wouldn't have dropped them against opposition like that and performance levels were so much higher especially in defence. Just on those 20 dropped points we would be joint top, but if we had the form of last season, I think we would have been in cruise control, there are other examples too of matches where we lost it, Preston away is another example. If we had been 2-0 up away at Preston last season we wouldn't have lost the match 3-2.
 
Balham said:
  • Those red cards at Charlton are looking more and more likely to break our season. I don't think it's unrealistic to say we'd have got 4 additional points (+3 vs Charlton, +1 vs Southampton) had we not gone down to 9 at the Valley. That would have put us top of every form table between 10 and 20 matches.
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Yep, a bit like the Oldham game in 11/12
 
LBA_Blade said:
Although looking at hindsight is a wonderful thing realistically, we are where we are playing catchup because of individual and team errors both under Selles and Wilder.

I have handpicked 7 games below where on paper we should have won (in bold) the other 2, we had the lead and should have taken it all the way.
Norwich home - 2 points
Charlton home - 3 points
Southampton home - 3 points
Milwall Home - 3 points
West Brom away - 3 points
Wrexham away - 3 points
Charlton away - 3 points

I know it is a big ask saying this and that should have happened but the above there represents 20 dropped points, from last season we wouldn't have dropped them against opposition like that and performance levels were so much higher especially in defence. Just on those 20 dropped points we would be joint top, but if we had the form of last season, I think we would have been in cruise control, there are other examples too of matches where we lost it, Preston away is another example. If we had been 2-0 up away at Preston last season we wouldn't have lost the match 3-2.
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Annoying thing about the Charlton game was the inconsistency. If he was going to send Soumaré off and Tanganga then their lad, ironically who got injured, should already have walked for his late high tackle on the ankle which injured McCallum.

We could have been all over them and a man to the good.

Likewise the goal Peck scored against Saints was perfectly fine. That was a shit decision too and caused a 3 point swing. We’ve be able to leapfrog them tonight if not for that. In fact Southampton have had more than their fair share of luck against us. The goal at their place was a lucky deflection.
 
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Things are starting to move closer to xPoints now. Bristol and Hull dropping, Southampton and Birmingham rising. Expecting the four to be Ipswich, Southampton, Millwall, Birmingham.
 
We keep trying to claw that gap still but as I expected it's too much.

And we are inconsistent enough not to do it.

However tonight was yet again another night where we could have got something and should have.

Coventry can count themselves lucky not to have conceded a pen, been down to 10 and for us not to take chances. Especially first half.
You get that luck at the top though. We had it last season at times.

Their equaliser sorted them out. Even after 2-1 though we had a few moments not as much as before we scored though. Bindon header off the line too.
 
wavy-blade said:
Get your calculator's out again girls , everyone will be bashing those keyboards 😂

#Blewitatcharlton lol
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Although still not mathematically impossible based on our form of only being able to win 1 or 2 in a row, we are going to struggle when we need to win 9 or 10 out of 12. There are too many teams above us. Saying that though I would have taken Championship football safe after October!
 
Updated:

6W1D (2.7pts/Game) - 19pts (+0.6pts)
Home: Oxford (W), Wednesday (W), WBA, Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-5.8pts)
Home: Boro (L), Ipswich (W), Coventry (L), Wrexham
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-0.5pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich, Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (+0.6pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth (W), QPR, Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

I think thats probably it. I give us a 15% chance to get to 74pts (and that might not be enough). Got to win the home games, even against the top teams to have a chance. Taking 0pts from Boro / Cov means we'll have to win a lot of away games, which we haven't done this season. We'll have to win the next 4 (3 away) to get back on track. Shame, because if we'd have had one of Phillips/Jairo/Rothwell available today, that might have been enough to tip the balance, as it was we weren't able to take the wind out of the game 1 up. Played well enough, but it'll be a miracle if we make the playoffs now.
 
Thought we played really well tonight, but for some sloppy defending for their goals. Keep going for the playoffs Blades, you never know what might happen!
 
It was always a long shot and tonight made it even harder, but the door isn't firmly shut yet.

Just win the next game and see what happens.
 
We need to go on an unprecidented run, and others have a catastrophic failure..

Then should the miracle happen and we step on the pitch at Wembley, we have beat Wrexham, the Ref and the linesmen, the worlds media, the Premier league, netflix, Donald Trump and anybody else who knows they are an advertisers wet dream, because the "journey" is prime box office.. unlike us..

Not to mention VAR who seal the deal.

However we are not god enough over a season, but this is definately one we can't even have any blind riddiculous hope at all in.

But...

We haven't gone down (ahem) we beat them twice and relegated them on our pitch, thats better than i hoped for after the Seles' fuck up.

No parachutetes ahead, so enjoy these quality players while you can, cus we gotta sell when it ends this season..
 



I was consistently saying win your home and draw your aways.

Well, we’ve lost two home games now. That requires two away draws to be converted to wins. We did one at Portsmouth somehow.

If we win our remaining home games against teams that lack the quality of Boro and Coventry then that gets us to 63 points. You then probably need to win 3 or 4 out of the remaining 6 aways to get in the Play Offs.

You’d have to be bonkers to suggest a team that switches off like that at home can make that.

But then again, there are worse things in this world than being a bit bonkers!

Let’s just take it all out on QPR now and give them a good hiding this weekend.
 
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