Our Performance Against Better Teams

[ucandomagic]

I like this table from Statto, as it highlights how we are performing against different quality opposition.

Unfortunately, the Statto results are behind, so I have had to reproduce it in a spreadsheet.

The reason that I have posted it is that it possibly tells quite a story for next year.

Against the other teams in the top 8 we have Played 12, Won 2, Drawn 4 and Lost 6 - ie 10 points from 12 games.

Against teams below 8th we are absolutely clinical - unbeaten in 24 games, Won 19, Drawn 5 - ie 62 points from 24 games.

If Championship quality is similar to League 1 Top 8 then we will certainly need to raise our performance and recruit well.

The only saving grace here is that 3 of those losses were in our first 4 games (Bolton, Southend and Millwall), so since then it is Won 2, Drawn 4, Lost 3 - ie 10 points from 9 games against the top 8. Better but still not great.

So, while I am 99.9% certain that we are going up - especially looking at our performance against lower teams - I am already starting to manage my expectations for next year.

UTB

 

[ucandomagic]

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[Pierre's PC]

Points against the top teams are worth the same as those against the bottom. Since there's only a small number of "top" teams and a larger number of also rans. You can lose to the better opposition and still win titles.

During their dominance, Man United always seemed to struggle against arsenal (for instance) and still won the title because they destroyed the lesser teams.

 

[ucandomagic]

Points against the top teams are worth the same as those against the bottom. Since there's only a small number of "top" teams and a larger number of also rans. You can lose to the better opposition and still win titles.

During their dominance, Man United always seemed to struggle against arsenal (for instance) and still won the title because they destroyed the lesser teams.

That is exactly my point - I think we will win the title this year by beating the large number of also-rans. Next year the quality of almost all of the Championship also-rans is likely to be as high or greater than the teams that we are struggling against this year.

UTB

 

[Pierre's PC]

That is exactly my point - I think we will win the title this year by beating the large number of also-rans. Next year the quality of almost all of the Championship also-rans is likely to be as high or greater than the teams that we are struggling against this year.

UTB

So the league above is comprised of better quality so we have to bring better quality in?

Thanks for that, I'm just going to go boil my head.

 

[ucandomagic]

So the league above is comprised of better quality so we have to bring better quality in?

Thanks for that, I'm just going to go boil my head.

Many people on here, myself included, have said and believed that the current team, with only minor improvements, would be reasonably competitive in the Championship next season.

The stark contrast in colours between the top third and bottom two thirds of this chart suggests that the recruitment of more quality will need to be more extensive than I and many others believed.

You may well have always realised that.

UTB

 

[South Bucks]

Ucando you are stating the blindingly obvious with very few exceptions but well presented all the same.

Several weak links need upgrading in the summer to stay up IMO.

We're not going to stay up if we only rely on one talented 31 year old player to score nearly all of our goals against much better opposition.

 

[ChrisBlade]

And then there is the concept of "top eight" in your current table. Walsall were anything but top eight both times we played them. They only just and for the first time this week squeezed into the top eight. Peterboro, meanwhile, were top eight both times we played them and we beat them twice. So substitute two defeats for two wins and your stats start looking markedly more favourable.

I would make more of the fact that we - for the first time ever in my memory - have a style that pretty safely takes care of the genuinely poor teams. The Championship will have those teams in it, too. They will be better than the League 1 dross, but so will we be.

Subject to reasonable reinforcements if we go up, this year's performances do not give me reason to fear the Championship. The key will be whether we will be able to maintain a confident style of football where players back their own ability or whether a few defeats to clearly better sides will erode confidence and expose our physical shortcomings (no pace, still a relatively high number of short and technical players) more.

 

[moDtheGod]

Isn't it a thing that teams who win the league don't do as well as in the league above as the team that comes second? Or is that an urban myth like the new manager syndrome?

If I'm bored at work next week I'll research that.