Negative Nigel - Really? Some Evidence

[alcoblade]

but why the results in April were worse than what your complaining about and we were bloody awful against tranmere orient stevenage its because we as fans set too high an expectation level , so now its oooh were only 5th and could lose in the play offs , but we could get 90 points and lose in a play off so lets see what happens
what really made last season more enjoyable was wednesday failing v charlton if we study it then us beating them. the cup run made our league form seem better

The football was more entertaining. That's just a statement of fact, from my seat.

UTB

 

[blade too long]

The football was more entertaining. That's just a statement of fact, from my seat.

UTB

not in every game it wasnt , so we werent entertaining beating swindon preston and bristol city since january

Again why when we win well do our fans forget it by the next match , , have we been piss poor in all 37 games ,,, really tell me what level you expect , sheer brilliance every game every other game , 40 shots a match , yet you see 3 wins in 10 last season as wonderful , to bolster your argument

one of those games tranmere away , if thats not as bad as anything weve seen since xmas Im dutch

 

[alcoblade]

Ok, the football is fucking shite right now. I really don't care when it wasbetter, when it was worse, or if it makes you feel on cloud 9.

I am bored to death with the vast majority of what I've witnessed this season.

UTB

 

[metalblade]

not in every game it wasnt , so we werent entertaining beating swindon preston and bristol city since january

Again why when we win well do our fans forget it by the next match , , have we been piss poor in all 37 games ,,, really tell me what level you expect , sheer brilliance every game every other game , 40 shots a match , yet you see 3 wins in 10 last season as wonderful , to bolster your argument

one of those games tranmere away , if thats not as bad as anything weve seen since xmas Im dutch

You know as well as anyone in some games we played the reserves saving ourselves for the semi-final, the team that beat Rotherham was nothing like the usual starting eleven we only ever had an outside chance of the play offs. Last seasons league one had better teams than this season I'd go as far as saying the poor quality of teams in this years league one is the only reason we are still top six.

 

[Bergen Blade]

Mmmm. Figures can look deceiving though.
So I'm a Sheffield United player, I get the ball 35 yards out, look one way, no support, look another way no support, step forward a couple of yards, still no support. So I shoot from 30 yards, it's a tame effort and it goes 5 yards wide or the goalkeeper drops his cap on it, regardless of where the shot ends up it's still counted as a shot.
All it tells you if you analyse it was that a shot was taken because of the negativity of the play not because of the positivity of the play.

The correlation between total shots and table position is pretty strong:

Here's the total shots Premiership table:



Looking at the difference in table position for each side you get:

1 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 14 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 5 - 0 - 2 - 0 - 5 - 3 - 7 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 4 - 3

So over time I think it's a good indication of how well a team is doing. QPR is the odd exception. Obviously stats like these should only be used as one of many tools that anaylyse performances.

A similar comparison with Shots on Target would be only slightly more accurate.

If they were available it would be interesting to see similar stats for League One, over the full season.

 

[Punk Blade]

There's plenty in here I agree with (and plenty I'd disagree with) but if I was going to be facetious I'd sum it up as: The set up that's a waste of time gives us too many chances?

Not really. I'm happy to see us create as many 'chances' as we do if we actually stick some of them away (or produce a useful pass or cross). If we'd been as clinical as the opposition in our home games we'd have won 5-1 and 6-2 most games and nobody would be upset.

I think a contributing factor to us being so wasteful in front of goal is that we know we'll get another chance. If that isn't a factor then we're left with our forwards not being good enough.

And I strongly disagree that the only stat that count is goals. That's just simplistic: you can create a hatful of chances, not finish them off and lose, or draw 0-0, or you can scrape a jammy 1-0 with a dodgy penalty. One bodes well for long term prospects, the other doesn't.

I'm not sure how to counter that without sounding condescending. What other stats are used in determining the winner of a match?

We've been creating a hatful of chances, not finishing them off and drawing or losing much of the season. That's the reason we're nowhere near the top two.

 

[Cyprus Blade]

Personally I think there are two key differences between last season and this.

1) Last season we had a settled side by March who knew each other and each others strengths and playing style and we had built effective partnerships in key areas of the pitch. In short a team. This season we do not have a settled side and the late incomings during the January window seem to have raised new communication issues. I'm not saying the players were better last year but our CH was, Coady was and Brayford was playing RB with Flynn on the right as an established pairing, not as an emergency CH.Turner has not filled me with any confidence when deputising for Howard's injuries this season. In general the spine of the side was stronger last year I think and by March the side had momentum which aided confidence.

2) The root of the "negativity" I think lies in the defensive weakness as well as the lack of a settled side.The seeds of where we are now go back to the summer and the consistent failure to resolve the CH problem. We had a decent CH and settled defence last season. In the summer we had 5 CH's on our books. Now we have the least experienced 2 of those 5 left - MaGahey and Kennedy. Magahey went on loan to Tranmere and was dire by all accounts. Other than him we have no fit out and out C/H's until the good but inexperienced Kennedy (dodgy knees and all) returns. Apart from the brief flirtation with the Palace bloke we have sourced no replacement for HM, Collins or Butler and this has been a running sore throughout the season, with no end of people being played out of position in a makeshift defence. Put simply our defence is less capable, consistent and experienced than last season and this puts pressure on us all over the pitch. It cannot do anything for confidence throughout the team.

Already NC has said the Barnsley game is about not losing and, in a way, it is. But he has said similar things about other games this season. It doesn't sound like a positive and confident Manager does it? Two derby games to come which could well determine our season. Here's hoping the god's smile on us.

 

[Kenilworth]

Number of shots in a game means nothing
Number of shots on target is more significant but that will exclude any that hit the post (without intervention) as by definition they are not on target
However, the number of times the keeper is worked is highly significant
If the keeper never gets "worked" or is "worked" once or twice a game then the maximum you can score is 2. If you don't convert either of those or only one of those then you either have to keep a clean sheet to win or concede fewer than 2 to retain a point - all very basic, obviously, but that seems to be what is being forgotten when these types of meaningless stats are bandied about to disprove a perception that the team is under performing (my take on negative).

Stating that we have had x or y shots during a game proves neither a positive or a negative approach
Nor does possession stats - you can have 80% possession and be raining chances on the oppo goal or you could have that same possession percentage and have no goal mouth action to shout about - it means absolutely nothing.

It's true that if you don't shoot you don't score but if your shots are off target or of poor quality then you won't score either.
The only real measure of how attacking and how positive you are is the number of times the oppo keeper is called into action and strangely enough the more the oppo keeper is called on to make telling saves the more enjoyable the game is. This is true regardless of the result as well. Win lose or draw, if your team has put in a real effort, worked the oppo gk several times, their keeper has had a blinder or you have just been unlucky or you have been sunk by a piece of brilliance I can accept that and enjoy the spectacle as it is. But let's face it none of that happens in the vast majority of our games this season, has it?

It's a futile exercise to try to persuade everyone that this many shots and that many shots demonstrates we are an attacking and positive team - it does nothing of the sort. Most people know instinctively when they have been entertained and the majority of people feel entertained when they have got out of their seats plenty of times in a match when we are very close to scoring. I don't get out of my seat and applaud a string of sideways and backwards passes that end up with us giving possession away but if that led to a goal scoring opportunity where we either scored or the keeper pulled off a save then I would.

I'm not gullible, I'm not alarmist, I'm not hyper critical either but I have seen and played and coached enough to understand what is significant or not in a football game. Regardless of that the collective fan base feels when the wool is being pulled over their eyes and knows when the product is sub standard or not. The sad truth is that we have not been dominating teams by putting them under the cosh on a relentless and regular basis like many of our nearest competitors have, MKD, Swindon, Bristol C and Preston - and the comparison is there for all to see in the points difference and the goal difference. Yet we should have. The squad size, the resources, the quality we know is in this group of players all suggests we should have been doing just this. We have seen the quality with our own eyes and teams working at far higher levels in the league than we are have experienced it. So why not those teams lower down in this division?

Players or Clough?
Motivated or complacent?
Afraid or inspired?

What I see is this - playing a cup game against higher opposition - nothing expected, pressure off, no motivation needed as it's a relatively glamorous tie. Tactics set up to absorb pressure and counter attack - bloody good record on this count. We may not dominate possession nor do we have bundles of chances to test the oppo keeper but when we break or step it up a gear we can compete with teams operating much higher than we are.

Contrast Fleetwood, Peterborough, Preston in the FA Cup, Oldham, Walsall, Crewe, MKD, Barnsley in a slump of a run, there are so many - we don't appear to have the quality to overcome these teams - yet we know it's there - we have seen it. Now it is the players own motivation? Is it the quality of player in the squad? It could be - but players who were performing for other teams have come in and once acclimatised seem to be be drifting away again. We seem stifled and low on energy, the tempo is very low yet they persist with a variation of the passing game that is lethargic and so obviously ineffective as a result - substitutions too late in a game - like for like changes (defender for defender - defensive midfielder on for an attacking player - top scorer gets 5 mins a game IF he's lucky) - that's got nowt to do with players. The only one that has to do with a player is the one where Murphy sparkles or not. If he does we get a decent result if he doesn't then we are poor. It cannot be that simple, surely. That means we are playing to a system - a rigid system - an uncompromising system that allows little or no variation or woe betide you - and you can tell the fear is there, it's palpable. - It didn't start from the fans - the displeasure being voiced is a result of 1. no entertainment, 2. the same mistakes being repeated and 3. the obvious under performing compared to expectation.

So, don't blow smoke up my arse - I know when we are good and I can sure as hell tell when we are not performing to a decent standard.
And this season, despite still being 5th at this late stage is already a huge disappointment and looks as though it is going to get worse.

I have lost all confidence that Clough has it in his locker to succeed in this campaign, despite the heavy backing from the board, and we are all watching on feeling pretty helpless as the beard fuelled promotion train grinds to a halt in the station marked "A fifth term - are you fucking with me?"

 

[metalblade]

I'd give that 10 likes if I could ^^^^^^^

 

[longinthe toothblade]

Moving the ball from one side of the pitch to the other, trying to work an opening: If you can't get in down the left then keep the ball, pass sideways <God No!> or even backwards <explodes in purple-faced rage> and try to work it in down the right side.

I Googled it for a better explanation and (my cookies presumably) got this http://www.betterfootballcoaching.c...ss-the-ball-to-team-mates-to-keep-possession# as the top suggestion, it includes the following, which I think is spot on:

Younger players tend to want to attack the opponent's goal at every opportunity. This enthusiasm is a good quality in young players but it can often affect the team's rhythm because each player that receives the ball wants to immediately dribble or run forward in search of a goal.

To combat this, you should teach your players [and some of the fans ] to remain patient in possession and wait for the correct space and time to attack. Young players often try to force their way through pressure rather than turning away and quickly passing back to a team mate in space.

By passing the ball from side to side, your team will keep its opponent on the run. This will eventually tire them or create attacking opportunities.

I've not even looked at the drill, so I can't comment on that, but that's a very good description of possession-based football.

The actual definition he uses of recycling possession is lower down the page, but I think amounts to what I said at the start.

FWIW I don't see this as the right way to play football - for me there isn't one. And to some extent it's a fashion inspired by recent Barcelona teams, which like any system has its shortcomings - but whatever it is, it's not negative.

Cheers - now I know.

The next time we are discussing football at work I can slip this in.

 

[Punk Blade]

Excellent post Kenilworth.

To continue on the theme of 'stats mean nowt', imagine a relegation-threatened team visiting top of the league. The visitors set up to defend in numbers and break on the counter if they can. The game quickly settles into an expected pattern of the home team controlling the ball in the opposition half and creating a succession of half-chances without really testing the goalie. After about 15 minutes one misplaced pass allows the visitors so break swiftly and decisively to take an early lead. No need to panic for the favourites as the game continues as before, with a few more serious chances. The hosts begin to apply a bit more pressure as half time nears in a bid to find the equaliser, but a quick throw out following a corner allows another counter attack to end in a goal. 0-2 at half time.

The second half is played entirely in the visitor's half and all the away team can do is head and kick clear, block and tackle as best they can. They defend well, but clearly the home team will have some clear cut opportunities. The away team ride their luck and the goalie pulls off two impressive double saves. As time runs out the hosts resort to shooting on sight, some easy takes, some blasted high or wide, and some pushed behind for corners.

Full time 0-2.

Stats:

Possession 78-22
Shots 27-3
On target 12-2
Corners 14-0

These stats reflect that the away team took an early lead and had 2-0 to defend for the entirety of the second half, not that the home team was vastly superior and deserved to win.

 

[TheBeard]

We are trying to play possession football and in doing so the ball has to go back and sideways until we can get into a position to break the opposition down. IMO the problem is not with playing this way the problem is that when you play this way, the players have to move around and make space for themselves and leave your markers so you gain an advantage when you recieve the ball. All of our players are static once they pass the the ball they don't pass and move to create forward momentum and break the other team down. Every match this season our throw in's are useless, for the same reason, no one is moving about to lose their markers and recieve the ball.

 

[TheBeard]

The trouble with playing possessional football is that the ball does have to go sideways and backwards until you gain an advantage. IMO Our problem is not in playing this system of football, but the problem lies in the players being static, to play this style of football once you have passed the ball you have to move and gain space and loose your markers to create forward opportunities or the ball goes sideways or backwards continually until we loose possession as what generally happens watching the Blades. We have the same problem with throw in's all season no one moves about to create space to receive the ball

 

[grafikhaus]

The phrase started in Derby before he came to us.

'ang on. If Steve McLaren goes to Newcastle this summer, I'd expect Derby will be banging on our door wanting Clough back.

Won't they?

 

[grafikhaus]

We are trying to play possession football and in doing so the ball has to go back and sideways until we can get into a position to break the opposition down. IMO the problem is not with playing this way the problem is that when you play this way, the players have to move around and make space for themselves and leave your markers so you gain an advantage when you recieve the ball. All of our players are static once they pass the the ball they don't pass and move to create forward momentum and break the other team down. Every match this season our throw in's are useless, for the same reason, no one is moving about to lose their markers and recieve the ball.

Have a 'Like' from me and a prize for stating the bleedin' obvious. Now if only our 'technical staff' could see it....

(No need to post it twice, though )

 

[TheBeard]

Have a 'Like' from me and a prize for stating the bleedin' obvious. Now if only our 'technical staff' could see it....

(No need to post it twice, though )

Sorry did it on me phone and didn't think it had posted but posting it twice States the obvious for the ones who can't see it

 

[grafikhaus]

Sorry did it on me phone and didn't think it had posted but posting it twice States the obvious for the ones who can't see it

No need to apologise! You're new on here and I'm a sarky bastard. You'll learn.

 

[Bergen Blade]

I found this site that shows stats for League One:

http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=Leagues

In terms of Total Shots we're 8th this season. The top four in the table are also in the top four for total shots, though not the same order.

 

[Kenilworth]

Sorry did it on me phone and didn't think it had posted but posting it twice States the obvious for the ones who can't see it

No need to apologise! You're new on here and I'm a sarky bastard. You'll learn.

It's true

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

Excellent post Kenilworth.

To continue on the theme of 'stats mean nowt', imagine a relegation-threatened team visiting top of the league. The visitors set up to defend in numbers and break on the counter if they can. The game quickly settles into an expected pattern of the home team controlling the ball in the opposition half and creating a succession of half-chances without really testing the goalie. After about 15 minutes one misplaced pass allows the visitors so break swiftly and decisively to take an early lead. No need to panic for the favourites as the game continues as before, with a few more serious chances. The hosts begin to apply a bit more pressure as half time nears in a bid to find the equaliser, but a quick throw out following a corner allows another counter attack to end in a goal. 0-2 at half time.

The second half is played entirely in the visitor's half and all the away team can do is head and kick clear, block and tackle as best they can. They defend well, but clearly the home team will have some clear cut opportunities. The away team ride their luck and the goalie pulls off two impressive double saves. As time runs out the hosts resort to shooting on sight, some easy takes, some blasted high or wide, and some pushed behind for corners.

Full time 0-2.

Stats:

Possession 78-22
Shots 27-3
On target 12-2
Corners 14-0

These stats reflect that the away team took an early lead and had 2-0 to defend for the entirety of the second half, not that the home team was vastly superior and deserved to win.

Shots is a crude metric initially invoked to challenge the assertion that Clough is negative, where I think it has some traction.

The above illustrates some of its crudeness, but, in turn, has a number of shortcomings of its own.

I think the substantial point of the OP remains.

Hang on...it's coming to me...

The Nonsensical Notion of Negative Nigel

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

The trouble with playing possessional football is that the ball does have to go sideways and backwards until you gain an advantage. IMO Our problem is not in playing this system of football, but the problem lies in the players being static, to play this style of football once you have passed the ball you have to move and gain space and loose your markers to create forward opportunities or the ball goes sideways or backwards continually until we loose possession as what generally happens watching the Blades. We have the same problem with throw in's all season no one moves about to create space to receive the ball

Agreed. There are substantial issues with the way we are playing and insufficient movement may be one of them. I did post about Throw Ins a while ago. Holt as a new kid on the block hasn't yet learned to stand still - that's if he's even capable.

 

[NE Blade]

but why the results in April were worse than what your complaining about and we were bloody awful against tranmere orient stevenage its because we as fans set too high an expectation level , so now its oooh were only 5th and could lose in the play offs , but we could get 90 points and lose in a play off so lets see what happens
what really made last season more enjoyable was wednesday failing v charlton if we study it then us beating them. the cup run made our league form seem better

With the size of our budget the expectation for this season can have been nothing other than automatic promotion. Clough had a full pre-season and has signed a huge number of players, spending more than the vast majority of teams in this league could dream of. Anything other than automatic promotion is a failure.

Finishing with a small number of points more than last season when Weir wrecked the first few months can hardly be deemed progress.

2013/2014 - 67 points - 46 games: 1.46 points per game
2014/2015 - 61 points - 39 games: 1.56 points per game

Is anyone really happy with that "progress"?

 

[Cyprus Blade]

'ang on. If Steve McLaren goes to Newcastle this summer, I'd expect Derby will be banging on our door wanting Clough back.

and of course he'll want to take the players he goes everywhere with along with him. What are we going to do without Coutts?

 

[Hodgyman]

Recent proof of negativity from NN 's own mouth:

""If we had seen those two games out properly we would be at least two points better off, that's got to be something we learn from."

Read more at http://www.sufc.co.uk/news/article/sheffield-united-nigel-clough-2367376.aspx#vHRcYQrrA5uwhiDZ.99

We should be expecting, preparing and playing to win games against the likes of Crewe, Peterborough etc from the start. We should be scoring enough goals to be able to "declare" by half time, never mind losing to a last minute goal from the visitors.

 

[grafikhaus]

I found this site that shows stats for League One:

http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=Leagues

In terms of Total Shots we're 8th this season. The top four in the table are also in the top four for total shots, though not the same order.

Lies, damn lies and all that. We're third in the number of 'corners'. Means naff all if we can't take them. Mind, only Crewe have given fewer fouls away, so we must be doing something right. Right?

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

The football was more entertaining. That's just a statement of fact, from my seat.

UTB

Excellent post Kenilworth.

To continue on the theme of 'stats mean nowt', imagine a relegation-threatened team visiting top of the league. The visitors set up to defend in numbers and break on the counter if they can. The game quickly settles into an expected pattern of the home team controlling the ball in the opposition half and creating a succession of half-chances without really testing the goalie. After about 15 minutes one misplaced pass allows the visitors so break swiftly and decisively to take an early lead. No need to panic for the favourites as the game continues as before, with a few more serious chances. The hosts begin to apply a bit more pressure as half time nears in a bid to find the equaliser, but a quick throw out following a corner allows another counter attack to end in a goal. 0-2 at half time.

The second half is played entirely in the visitor's half and all the away team can do is head and kick clear, block and tackle as best they can. They defend well, but clearly the home team will have some clear cut opportunities. The away team ride their luck and the goalie pulls off two impressive double saves. As time runs out the hosts resort to shooting on sight, some easy takes, some blasted high or wide, and some pushed behind for corners.

Full time 0-2.

Stats:

Possession 78-22
Shots 27-3
On target 12-2
Corners 14-0

These stats reflect that the away team took an early lead and had 2-0 to defend for the entirety of the second half, not that the home team was vastly superior and deserved to win.

Which is a long way of saying this crude stat has some imperfections - for instance in this particular detailed scenario.

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

Recent proof of negativity from NN 's own mouth:

""If we had seen those two games out properly we would be at least two points better off, that's got to be something we learn from."

Read more at http://www.sufc.co.uk/news/article/sheffield-united-nigel-clough-2367376.aspx#vHRcYQrrA5uwhiDZ.99

We should be expecting, preparing and playing to win games against the likes of Crewe, Peterborough etc from the start. We should be scoring enough goals to be able to "declare" by half time, never mind losing to a last minute goal from the visitors.

Hang on. He said "seen those games out" how is that positive or negative?

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

I'm not sure how to counter that without sounding condescending. What other stats are used in determining the winner of a match?
We've been creating a hatful of chances, not finishing them off and drawing or losing much of the season. That's the reason we're nowhere near the top two.

The OP was about Clough not being negative - given that we are creating "a hatful of chances" that would seem to be something you agree with.

As stated previously you can win or lose one match for any number of reasons.

I am contesting the point that goals scored is the only statistic that counts. It's almost meaningless to generalise from one game but in terms of long term prospects it is at least arguable that it is better to play well and lose than play badly and win. You can't play well every week and lose, similarly you can't play badly every week and win.

 

[alcoblade]

Which is a long way of saying this crude stat has some imperfections - for instance in this particular detailed scenario.

I'm not sure why you quoted me?

Isn't the point that you don't need stats to tell you if you went home entertained or not?

There's no amount of stats that Blade too long can dig up from Spain that will convince a car load of bored supporters on the journey home from BDTBL.

UTB

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

I'm not sure why you quoted me?

Isn't the point that you don't need stats to tell you if you went home entertained or not?

There's no amount of stats that Blade too long can dig up from Spain that will convince a car load of bored supporters on the journey home from BDTBL.

UTB

I was aiming for the other (lengthy) post, and ended up with two for the price of one.