Mind The (Boro) Gap

[ucandomagic]

In my graphs thread HVR asked whether I could map out the gap between us and Boro over the season.

I have tried to do it below - but there are 2 ways to look at the gap.

The first is the usual way to think about it, by date, which doesn't allow for any differences in games played on that date.

The second is to map it out by the same number of games, where the gap shown may never match any specific date.

So - the 2 graphs below show both of those approaches.

For the dates graph, I've used the Saturday night each week - and added today at the end. (The flat run of 11 in the middle is the World Cup break.)

Blades-Boro Gap By Date:


Blades-Boro Gap By Games Played:


Overall, I guess that 7 points with 11 games to go is a good position to be in.

However, on January 27th we had both played 28 games and the gap was 15 points.

Over the games 29-32 the gap had reduced by 8 to 7 points - we took 4 points and they took 12.

On March 8th we have now both played 35 games and the gap is still 7 points.

So a gap of 7 points is good - but a bit like a 2-0 lead, if it starts to reduce it's squeaky bum time!!

UTB & Slava Ukraini

 

[Silkblade]

Not gonna lie, I think statistically it doesn’t matter at all. Just play each game by ear don’t worry about this stuff mate it’s a waste of time. We know some games we turn up, and some we don’t. Let’s just see where we finish at the end of the season.

UTB

 

[BangorBlade]

Just need to match boros results and were quids in

 

[ISZA ⚔️]

Not gonna lie, I think statistically it doesn’t matter at all. Just play each game by ear don’t worry about this stuff mate it’s a waste of time. We know some games we turn up, and some we don’t. Let’s just see where we finish at the end of the season.

UTB

He‘s clearly passionate about graphs and spends his time doing them. They are of moderate interest to me but I wouldn’t discourage anyone to participate less in anything healthy they have an interest in.

 

[Silkblade]

I think Blackburn are more of a threat than Middlesbrough I can’t lie. They look way more threatening and have been on a 11 game unbeaten run. I’m focusing on them more at the moment more than Middlesbrough

 

[Stretch]

I'll defer to you on this if wrong, but in late Jan weren't Norwich, Boro, Luton and Watford all about the same distance behind us though?

If so, then we have done well to whittle down the chasing pack.

 

[Millhousesblade1889]

I feel that Norwich (a) Sunderland (a) Burnley (a) are where promotion is won/ lost. If we can get 4-6 points out of them 3 then we'll go up.

 

[northsomersetblade]

It's the point where the curve re-intersects the x axis that worries me, is it before or after May the 8th or does it increase towards infinity?

 

[mattbianco1]

I feel that Norwich (a) Sunderland (a) Burnley (a) are where promotion is won/ lost. If we can get 4-6 points out of them 3 then we'll go up.

I'd take 3 draws from them and win the home games.

 

[RecordBreakers]

I think Blackburn are more of a threat than Middlesbrough I can’t lie. They look way more threatening and have been on a 11 game unbeaten run. I’m focusing on them more at the moment more than Middlesbrough

I don't know who your trying to kid but it ain't working! Boro are the biggest threat and that cannot be denied.

 

[MobileBlade]

I'd take 3 draws from them and win the home games.

What about one win and two defeats?

 

[Millhousesblade1889]

I'd take 3 draws from them and win the home games.

The Sheffield United way means 4 points is optimistic

 

[Charlieblade]

Not gonna lie, I think statistically it doesn’t matter at all. Just play each game by ear don’t worry about this stuff mate it’s a waste of time. We know some games we turn up, and some we don’t. Let’s just see where we finish at the end of the season.

UTB

I think it’s a bit more complicated than that William. Teams are learning our system and our key players. Sometimes the system works and sometimes we don’t play to our potential. Sometimes they get a break because their manager reads the game better than PH.

Football does throw up some inexplicable results. We have won games we sometimes didn’t deserve to. We have lost games because the other team played better.
Sometimes we don’t play as well as we should.

 

[MobileBlade]

I think it’s a bit more complicated than that William. Teams are learning our system and our key players. Sometimes the system works and sometimes we don’t play to our potential. Sometimes they get a break because their manager reads the game better than PH.

Football does throw up some inexplicable results. We have won games we sometimes didn’t deserve to. We have lost games because the other team played better.
Sometimes we don’t play as well as we should.

And sometimes teams do things to nulify us. For instance, the pitch at Blackburn on Saturday was not watered making it difficult to carry the ball, which nulified a lot of our threat.

 

[Blade56]

It’s so touch and go who will go up with Burnley SwissBlade has started selling 50/50 scarfs with SUFC Championship and SUFC Premiership on them[/USER]

 

[MobileBlade]

It’s so touch and go who will go up with Burnley Blade58 has started selling 50/50 scarfs with SUFC Championship and SUFC Premiership on them

Has he bought any stock off Blades11 ?

 

[LS16Blade]

I think Blackburn are more of a threat than Middlesbrough I can’t lie. They look way more threatening and have been on a 11 game unbeaten run. I’m focusing on them more at the moment more than Middlesbrough

Blackburn’s final 5 fixtures are Coventry, PNE, Burnley, Luton and Millwall. They also have Norwich to play in the run-in.

Added to that, I don’t think they’re very good…which is why our second-half no-show on Saturday was so infuriating.

And certainly not good enough to make up 9 (realistically 10 points given their goal difference) points on us.

 

[Benny]

It's interesting, the World cup gap of a month of no games after a loss is probably adding to the siege mentality.

 

[Snake]

I feel that Norwich (a) Sunderland (a) Burnley (a) are where promotion is won/ lost. If we can get 4-6 points out of them 3 then we'll go up.

I think promotion will be won/lost depending on our last 7 games. 6 of these are very winnable. Boro on the other hand have a tougher run in. If are still 3 points in front of Boro after the Norwich game then I think we will do it.

Hope they change the time of either our game v Preston or Millers v Boro on the same day (2nd last game of season) If so I can see many Blades at the NYS cheering on the Millers!

 

[Silent Blade]

Not gonna lie, I think statistically it doesn’t matter at all. Just play each game by ear don’t worry about this stuff mate it’s a waste of time. We know some games we turn up, and some we don’t. Let’s just see where we finish at the end of the season.

UTB

Exactly, we dont know who will be available to play for Blades or Boro in the matches for the rest of season. There are other elements of luck such as poor refereeing decisions, tactical decisions.

It is important for both teams to have positive backing from the fans.

 

[Keen Blade]

I feel that Norwich (a) Sunderland (a) Burnley (a) are where promotion is won/ lost. If we can get 4-6 points out of them 3 then we'll go up.

Realistically those are the three we'll lose.
Of the other 8 , we need to win 7 and draw 1 , putting us on 89 points which should do it.

 

[Ned the Donkey]

"That's some bias, that confirmation bias."

"It's the best there is."

 

[tyke1889]

I think Blackburn are more of a threat than Middlesbrough I can’t lie. They look way more threatening and have been on a 11 game unbeaten run. I’m focusing on them more at the moment more than Middlesbrough

I'm sure ucandomagic could sort a graph to either prove or disprove that

 

[Snowflake]

Just need to match boros results and were quids in

Not if we both go into bad spells and Blackburn/Luton fly past us.

 

[Greystones Blade]

I feel that Norwich (a) Sunderland (a) Burnley (a) are where promotion is won/ lost. If we can get 4-6 points out of them 3 then we'll go up.

I’m still trying to figure out how Sunderland lost 5-1 at home to Stoke!

 

[Mouth of the South]

Apart from Burnley (home) and Luton (away), Boro's run-in is fairly easy. I could imagine them picking up at least 2 points/game through to the end of the season which would put them on at least 82 points - not an easy target considering Utd's run-in and current form.

 

[CPB]

This month will be interesting, we have Luton H and Sunderland A as our only two league fixtures now this month.

Next month in the 8 games we play 5 are at home. But if we don't pick up points or at least a win in these 2 then Boro could conceivably be ahead of us before we play Norwich (If they win all 3). So take each game as it comes of course but this is a possible prospect if we fail to win either.

Luton are a tough nut, they are capable of getting points off anyone. Hopefully with it being at home we can grab a win.
Sunderland away is never easy, that said they have dropped off in form recently. Stoke stuffed them 5-1 at the weekend.

 

[CPB]

Apart from Burnley (home) and Luton (away), Boro's run-in is fairly easy. I could imagine them picking up at least 2 points/game through to the end of the season which would put them on at least 82 points - not an easy target considering Utd's run-in and current form.

5 wins 1 draw from 11 games would put us on 83 points.

 

[mcbladeface]

"That's some bias, that confirmation bias."

"It's the best there is."

A like for the reference.

 

[Yellarbellyblade]