ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
A pretty damp squib of a game which look-at-me Matt Donohue tried his best to make controversial. Nobody was great and nobody was particularly poor. Peck, Brooks, and Seriki all look comfortable Championship players this season which, along with Blaster, is so important because it gives us a depth of squad that we couldn’t afford to buy.
Pompey had the best chance with a free header from a corner, but in reality neither side deserved to win. Once again the game ended in a load of handbags about nothing, we need to grow up and just walk off the pitch. These days it seems to be if Gus doesn’t have a great day then the Blades don’t have a great day. 4 shots on target out of 12 for us, 2 on target out of 9 for them – so we should probably have scored. I think we looked more threatening with a mobile Brewster and Campbell on the pitch. Campbell came closest for us alongside a first half Gus header, which he should have headed down rather than at a saveable height. Big Harry and Anel continue to be the rock that our season will be built on, and our GoalCooper glides through every game with quiet competence.
So 4 clean sheets in a row - Won 4, Drawn 3 - what do the graphs and charts look like?
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. Compared to my benchmarks we are now a couple behind my Promotion lines and probably about on the edge of a Playoff schedule. 13 points from 7 games with a 2-point deduction is still an excellent return.
Graph 1 does include our city rivals’ results, which was requested and which the majority seem to like to see, but I have also included Graph 1A (Graph 1 without Wendy), as requested by Snowflake and 7 others last week.
Graph 1:
Graph 1A (Graph 1 without Wendy):
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 13 points (even with a 2-point deduction) we are 1 ahead of the 12 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are now 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 5 points behind Warnock’s great start in 05/06. (For those with a good memory, we lost Game 7 away at Bristol City in 2018/19. They were 1 of only 2 teams who did the double over us in 2018/19 – the other was Swansea).
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. (I’ve posted this before the Sunday game between Bristol City and Swansea). Blades are in 6th and without the deduction we would actually be level 2nd, just 1 point off the top. We haven’t yet played any of the 5 teams above us though.
League Table:
I previously posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season. I am now posting a review of my performance each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position – this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster!
Over/Under Performance Table:
Only 5 teams are more than 7 places away from my forecast. The big overperformers compared to my forecast are Blackburn and Oxford. The big underperformers compared to my forecast are Luton and Coventry.
My review of performance and position against XG stats last Tuesday evening didn’t get a lot of response but I will do it again this Tuesday, when all the XG data is in, and see if it generates any more interest.
So a great week coming up with 2 home games. 6 points from those games and we’re really flying.
I’ve got an Airbnb 300 yards from the Lane on Wednesday night – so no 100 mile drive and no unit counting needed!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Pompey had the best chance with a free header from a corner, but in reality neither side deserved to win. Once again the game ended in a load of handbags about nothing, we need to grow up and just walk off the pitch. These days it seems to be if Gus doesn’t have a great day then the Blades don’t have a great day. 4 shots on target out of 12 for us, 2 on target out of 9 for them – so we should probably have scored. I think we looked more threatening with a mobile Brewster and Campbell on the pitch. Campbell came closest for us alongside a first half Gus header, which he should have headed down rather than at a saveable height. Big Harry and Anel continue to be the rock that our season will be built on, and our GoalCooper glides through every game with quiet competence.
So 4 clean sheets in a row - Won 4, Drawn 3 - what do the graphs and charts look like?
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. Compared to my benchmarks we are now a couple behind my Promotion lines and probably about on the edge of a Playoff schedule. 13 points from 7 games with a 2-point deduction is still an excellent return.
Graph 1 does include our city rivals’ results, which was requested and which the majority seem to like to see, but I have also included Graph 1A (Graph 1 without Wendy), as requested by Snowflake and 7 others last week.
Graph 1:
Graph 1A (Graph 1 without Wendy):
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 13 points (even with a 2-point deduction) we are 1 ahead of the 12 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are now 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 5 points behind Warnock’s great start in 05/06. (For those with a good memory, we lost Game 7 away at Bristol City in 2018/19. They were 1 of only 2 teams who did the double over us in 2018/19 – the other was Swansea).
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. (I’ve posted this before the Sunday game between Bristol City and Swansea). Blades are in 6th and without the deduction we would actually be level 2nd, just 1 point off the top. We haven’t yet played any of the 5 teams above us though.
League Table:
I previously posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season. I am now posting a review of my performance each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position – this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster!
Over/Under Performance Table:
Only 5 teams are more than 7 places away from my forecast. The big overperformers compared to my forecast are Blackburn and Oxford. The big underperformers compared to my forecast are Luton and Coventry.
My review of performance and position against XG stats last Tuesday evening didn’t get a lot of response but I will do it again this Tuesday, when all the XG data is in, and see if it generates any more interest.
So a great week coming up with 2 home games. 6 points from those games and we’re really flying.
I’ve got an Airbnb 300 yards from the Lane on Wednesday night – so no 100 mile drive and no unit counting needed!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
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