ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Another great result – 3 wins and 2 draws, and still seeming to manage to be a bit under the radar because of the 2-point deduction. Not such a good weekend all round, as Sheffield Club took a 5-0 pasting by Rushall in the 2nd qualifying round of the FA Cup, but the Hoops bounce-killer made for a nice Saturday finale!
And so to Hull. They seem to me to be a side and a fanbase lacking in self-belief at the moment, and we simply quietly and efficiently put them away. Two almost mirror-image goals – breaking down the flank moving inside and a professional finish across the keeper inside the far post. Simple, clinical and no blasting over the bar at the end! Having to pick either Brooks or JRS is a luxury that most managers would dream of. 2 clean sheets in a row and a defence in front of Cooperman that is starting to look as solid as the 18/19 – 19/20 model. Anel and Souttar are growing game by game into a rock-solid base. Speaking of Anel, real class from our travelling red wall. Also, big Kieffer showed, in the build-up to the second goal, exactly why he is going to be so important to us this year.
So, on to the graphs to follow and compare our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. Compared to my benchmarks we are now spot on my 9- Point target at this stage for Automatic Promotion. To be here after just 5 games with a 2-point deduction is way better than I had even dared to hope for.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 9 points (even with a 2-point deduction) we are level with the 9 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are still just 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 3 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. (I’ve posted this before the Sunday game between Portsmouth and West Brom). Blades are in 6th, and without the deduction, we would actually be level 2nd with Blackburn on 11 points and just 1-goal behind them with a Goal Difference of 5. The great thing is that we’ve had 2 points knocked off and we blew 2 points against QPR and yet we are still right up there and seem to have learned and improved from that game.
League Table:
I previously posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season. I am now posting a weekly review of my performance each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position – this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster! If I am spot on, everybody will be on zero! Blades would be zero without our points deduction. Oxford, Blackburn and Derby are way ahead of what I expected. Hopefully, we will knock Derby back a bit next week!
Over/Under Performance Table:
I was also asked to do an additional post, reviewing performance and position against XG stats, which I did last week. This seemed to be fairly-well received, so I will continue with that – posting it on Tuesday evening after all of the XG stats have come in.
So, another great week with an ever-developing new squad.
Time to knock Derby down a peg or two next Saturday.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
And so to Hull. They seem to me to be a side and a fanbase lacking in self-belief at the moment, and we simply quietly and efficiently put them away. Two almost mirror-image goals – breaking down the flank moving inside and a professional finish across the keeper inside the far post. Simple, clinical and no blasting over the bar at the end! Having to pick either Brooks or JRS is a luxury that most managers would dream of. 2 clean sheets in a row and a defence in front of Cooperman that is starting to look as solid as the 18/19 – 19/20 model. Anel and Souttar are growing game by game into a rock-solid base. Speaking of Anel, real class from our travelling red wall. Also, big Kieffer showed, in the build-up to the second goal, exactly why he is going to be so important to us this year.
So, on to the graphs to follow and compare our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. Compared to my benchmarks we are now spot on my 9- Point target at this stage for Automatic Promotion. To be here after just 5 games with a 2-point deduction is way better than I had even dared to hope for.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 9 points (even with a 2-point deduction) we are level with the 9 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are still just 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 3 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. (I’ve posted this before the Sunday game between Portsmouth and West Brom). Blades are in 6th, and without the deduction, we would actually be level 2nd with Blackburn on 11 points and just 1-goal behind them with a Goal Difference of 5. The great thing is that we’ve had 2 points knocked off and we blew 2 points against QPR and yet we are still right up there and seem to have learned and improved from that game.
League Table:
I previously posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season. I am now posting a weekly review of my performance each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position – this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster! If I am spot on, everybody will be on zero! Blades would be zero without our points deduction. Oxford, Blackburn and Derby are way ahead of what I expected. Hopefully, we will knock Derby back a bit next week!
Over/Under Performance Table:
I was also asked to do an additional post, reviewing performance and position against XG stats, which I did last week. This seemed to be fairly-well received, so I will continue with that – posting it on Tuesday evening after all of the XG stats have come in.
So, another great week with an ever-developing new squad.
Time to knock Derby down a peg or two next Saturday.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
