ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
So, quite a weekend. First of all, our very own Sir Joseph paid tribute to the contribution of the late great Graham Thorpe in helping him to reach a record 33 (now 34) Test Centuries.
Roooot
For me, a first Sheffield Treble weekend. On Saturday I watched Sheffield Club win 5-0 in an FA Cup “1st Qualifying Round” match. On Sunday, the Blades put Watford to the sword… and, of course, on Saturday the Lions enjoyed a 3-course meal!
And so to Watford. Considering that I think they had won their last 5 games, including 3 Championship games, I thought we pretty much stifled them. Almost to a man we performed well. Kieffer was probably the only disappointment – we just don’t seem to have found a way to use his strengths yet. What impressed me most today was our speed in defensive recovery. On 2 occasions, once Anel and once Vini, we outpaced a Watford forward to get back to the ball. Gone are the days of Egan having to grab hold and getting a red card! JRS looks as though he could become unplayable and generally new players like Gilchrist and Burrows are looking increasingly settled.
So, on to the graphs to follow and compare our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. Compared to my benchmarks we are 2 points behind my 8 Point targets at this stage for Automatic Promotion or Certain Playoffs, and 1 point behind the 7 Point target on the Playoff Possible line. Without the 2 point deduction, we would, of course be right on course for Automatic Promotion. I was asked last week what I was doing about displaying the 2-point deduction. At the moment, I am just using our actual points, including the deduction. As time goes on, the lines will separate a bit and, if the deduction becomes significant, then I’ll include a “without the deduction” line to highlight the difference.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 6 points we are level with the 6 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are still 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 3 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Without the deduction, we would actually be level 5th with Blackburn on 8 points with a Goal Difference of 3. I like seeing that flash of green high up the table though – after our first test against an in-form opponent.
League Table:
I previously posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season. I now post a weekly review of my predictions in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position – this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster!
Over/Under Performance Table:
Overall, I think we are performing really well, with virtually a new squad. Without the deduction we would be just a couple of places below my predicted 3rd place. I haven't watched any of the Oxford games, but I am amazed at their start.
Dull City next, and nearly 3 weeks before Derby come to the Lane.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Roooot
For me, a first Sheffield Treble weekend. On Saturday I watched Sheffield Club win 5-0 in an FA Cup “1st Qualifying Round” match. On Sunday, the Blades put Watford to the sword… and, of course, on Saturday the Lions enjoyed a 3-course meal!
And so to Watford. Considering that I think they had won their last 5 games, including 3 Championship games, I thought we pretty much stifled them. Almost to a man we performed well. Kieffer was probably the only disappointment – we just don’t seem to have found a way to use his strengths yet. What impressed me most today was our speed in defensive recovery. On 2 occasions, once Anel and once Vini, we outpaced a Watford forward to get back to the ball. Gone are the days of Egan having to grab hold and getting a red card! JRS looks as though he could become unplayable and generally new players like Gilchrist and Burrows are looking increasingly settled.
So, on to the graphs to follow and compare our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. Compared to my benchmarks we are 2 points behind my 8 Point targets at this stage for Automatic Promotion or Certain Playoffs, and 1 point behind the 7 Point target on the Playoff Possible line. Without the 2 point deduction, we would, of course be right on course for Automatic Promotion. I was asked last week what I was doing about displaying the 2-point deduction. At the moment, I am just using our actual points, including the deduction. As time goes on, the lines will separate a bit and, if the deduction becomes significant, then I’ll include a “without the deduction” line to highlight the difference.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 6 points we are level with the 6 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are still 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 3 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Without the deduction, we would actually be level 5th with Blackburn on 8 points with a Goal Difference of 3. I like seeing that flash of green high up the table though – after our first test against an in-form opponent.
League Table:
I previously posted my predicted league positions for the end of the season. I now post a weekly review of my predictions in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast position – this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster!
Over/Under Performance Table:
Overall, I think we are performing really well, with virtually a new squad. Without the deduction we would be just a couple of places below my predicted 3rd place. I haven't watched any of the Oxford games, but I am amazed at their start.
Dull City next, and nearly 3 weeks before Derby come to the Lane.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
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