ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Usual Graphs and Tables for Matchday 3. I waited to post this until the Welsh Civil War had completed the weekend fixtures on Sunday!
So, what to say about the Norwich game? It seemed to me to be 2 teams who wanted to keep possession more than try to win the game and risk losing it. (Wilder called it “Cagey”, which I pinched for the title- as it’s the Canaries!) Both sides played some pretty football, but neither side had anybody who regularly looked like making that killer difference. Having said that, I think Brooks was outstanding, and was on the verge of being that game-changer. JRS looks like he could become something special as well. I thought some of the criticism of Big Kieff was a bit harsh – as he is what he is, and we aren’t really playing to his strengths yet. I think Burrows and Trusty are too weak together as a left-side defence. I would have RND and Robbo in there – but I’m probably in a small minority there! Hamer and O’Hare need to look beyond each other occasionally! At the moment it seems like a good job that the hotel has opened so that they can get a room!
It is very easy to see the players that really care – Blaster & Brooks, Blades through and through – and I think Souttar (like Robbo) will become a bloodied Blades Gladiator in the Morgan mould.
OK - and so to the graphs, to follow and compare our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. Compared to my benchmarks we are 2 points behind my 5 Point targets at this stage for Automatic Promotion or Certain Playoffs, and 1 point behind the 4 Point target on the Playoff Possible line. Without the 2 point deduction, we would, of course be right on the Automatic Promotion line.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 3 points we are level with the 3 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 3 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Without the deduction, we would actually be level 6th with Leeds on 5 points with a Goal Difference of 2. The table does show, however, that none of the 3 teams that we have played have made a very good start to the season, so Watford next week will be a real test.
League Table:
Finally, you may remember that I posted earlier my predicted league positions at the end of the season. So I am posting a review of my performance each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast – so this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster!
Over/Under Performance Table:
Overall, we are probably about where we should expect to be with basically a new side.
Next week we will be able to see better where we really are, against high-flying Watford, with no dropped points.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
So, what to say about the Norwich game? It seemed to me to be 2 teams who wanted to keep possession more than try to win the game and risk losing it. (Wilder called it “Cagey”, which I pinched for the title- as it’s the Canaries!) Both sides played some pretty football, but neither side had anybody who regularly looked like making that killer difference. Having said that, I think Brooks was outstanding, and was on the verge of being that game-changer. JRS looks like he could become something special as well. I thought some of the criticism of Big Kieff was a bit harsh – as he is what he is, and we aren’t really playing to his strengths yet. I think Burrows and Trusty are too weak together as a left-side defence. I would have RND and Robbo in there – but I’m probably in a small minority there! Hamer and O’Hare need to look beyond each other occasionally! At the moment it seems like a good job that the hotel has opened so that they can get a room!
It is very easy to see the players that really care – Blaster & Brooks, Blades through and through – and I think Souttar (like Robbo) will become a bloodied Blades Gladiator in the Morgan mould.
OK - and so to the graphs, to follow and compare our progress.
Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results. I've taken each match and created 3 sets of results to achieve 3 points totals, which should represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. Compared to my benchmarks we are 2 points behind my 5 Point targets at this stage for Automatic Promotion or Certain Playoffs, and 1 point behind the 4 Point target on the Playoff Possible line. Without the 2 point deduction, we would, of course be right on the Automatic Promotion line.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. These earlier season results are the results from the same game day – not the same opponents. On 3 points we are level with the 3 points that we had in 2018/19 under Wilder. We are 1 point behind Hecky in 22/23 and 3 points behind Warnock in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Without the deduction, we would actually be level 6th with Leeds on 5 points with a Goal Difference of 2. The table does show, however, that none of the 3 teams that we have played have made a very good start to the season, so Watford next week will be a real test.
League Table:
Finally, you may remember that I posted earlier my predicted league positions at the end of the season. So I am posting a review of my performance each week in the form of each team’s current position relative to my end of season forecast – so this may be an indication of a team’s over/under performance, or it may just be an indication of my ineptitude as a forecaster!
Over/Under Performance Table:
Overall, we are probably about where we should expect to be with basically a new side.
Next week we will be able to see better where we really are, against high-flying Watford, with no dropped points.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
