Is it in our hands?

[Chief_Froley]

Statistically teams need an average of about 73 points to get in the playoffs which basically means 3 wins out of 4 for us (we'd be on 74 then).

So basically yeah, it's in our hands but we need to average at least 2 points a game if we were to be in with a shout.

 

[BigBed]

The gaffer needs to sort out some of the strange substitutions he makes if we're going to win anything.
For example, last night when he took Wright off for Duffy, surely it would've been better to take Stevens off for Duffy?? 4-4-2 with a stronger defence and attack!?
I don't think Donaldson should've come on eather, idve gone with Sharp or Holmes, sharp always tries for the club and I'm guessing Holmes is dieing to prove himself, if he ever gets a chance that Is!!

What do you guys think???

 

[blademark]

We still might not get into the play offs if we will all the remaining games. If Boro win all their 4 games and Derby win 4 of their 6 games then we finish in 7th place

Derby have to play Wolves, Boro, Cardiff, and Villa !

 

[Silent Blade]

Derby have to play Wolves, Boro, Cardiff, and Villa !

I know

 

[Hamburg Blade]

Some people don't seem to know what "in our hands" means. The answer is no. Even if we win all our games another team can beat us to it, which means it isn't solely up to us.
Assuming that the teams around us don't win all their games, I still think we will need to win three of the remaining four, which is a lot to ask. The biggest one is on Saturday. If we lose to Millwall they can't win any of their remaining games and have to lose at least one, whilst we have to win all three.
Nothing is impossible yet, but it's looking difficult. We'll do well to still be in it when we play Bristol City.

 

[super_pig]

Millwall are on a fantastic run. The last time they lost was New Year's Day. Won't be an easy game.

due a defeat then

 

[Fulwood Blade]

Win our next 7 games and we are in the Premier League.

you are right - but then just a reminder that Huddersfield didn't win any of the PO games - drew them all.

They also went up having lost 15 games in the regular season...............same as us now

History repeating itself?

UTB

 

[tomtheblade]

We still might not get into the play offs if we will all the remaining games. If Boro win all their 4 games and Derby win 4 of their 6 games then we finish in 7th place

Yes that's true.

My thinking is: given their fixtures it's more reasonable to expect that millwall/boro will drop points before the end of the season than it is to expect they will win every game (though Millwall are going some to challenge that)

Therefore, a perfect or almost perfect end from us can see us in the p/o.

Of course if you apply the same reasoning to us then we don't make it either as we can barely afford to drop points.

In this instance i'm simply saying that once you accept the first premise- that the other teams likely won't win every game, then it places our fate, however tentatively, back in our hand... hence the 'just about'.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

Yes that's true.

My thinking is: given their fixtures it's more reasonable to expect that millwall/boro will drop points before the end of the season than it is to expect they will win every game (though Millwall are going some to challenge that)

Therefore, a perfect or almost perfect end from us can see us in the p/o.

Of course if you apply the same reasoning to us then we don't make it either as we can barely afford to drop points.

In this instance i'm simply saying that once you accept the first premise- that the other teams likely won't win every game, then it places our fate, however tentatively, back in our hand... hence the 'just about'.

No, it doesn't. The "in our hands" bit means no one else can prevent us, which they can, however "just about" it is. That is the meaning of the phrase.

 

[tomtheblade]

No, it doesn't. The "in our hands" bit means no one else can prevent us, which they can, however "just about" it is. That is the meaning of the phrase.

So you think millwall and boro will win every game?

 

[Hamburg Blade]

So you think millwall and boro will win every game?

By definition, relying on them to drop points means it isn't in our hands. That's the point.

 

[itsinyerblood]

If we're fortunate to make it into a play-off position we should take a momentary deep breath...but only for a few seconds, then we're off again, all four team with the same edge-of-their-seats attitude running through their veins. So much to play for, so much at stake, and no place for faint hearts........that's if we make it into the play-offs.

It might be a case of too little too late, but as the OP suggests, what the heck, we've everything to play for, and whatever's around the corner, well we should give ourselves a good fucking shake to ensure we leave nothing at all behind in the dressing room. Chris and the lads have done superbly well this term. At the season's beginning there were cryptic voices suggesting we'd be bound for relegation, well here we are, on the cusp of something very special.......as for anyone choosing to cast a dark shadow over our efforts, just try and suspend any inclination you have to see a negative and get behind the Blades.....and I speak as someone not short on a critical gaze, or slow to comment when the club appears to be less than able when it comes to grasping success from the jaws of failure.

 

[tomtheblade]

By definition, relying on them to drop points means it isn't in our hands. That's the point.

Yeah I get it. That's not a very interesting discussion though.
If you only want to talk mathematics then fair enough but fans naturally want to discuss more widely than that.
The minute you open up speculation as to how the p/o chasing teams will fare it becomes a different conversation.

 

[Maidenhead]

The gaffer needs to sort out some of the strange substitutions he makes if we're going to win anything.
For example, last night when he took Wright off for Duffy, surely it would've been better to take Stevens off for Duffy?? 4-4-2 with a stronger defence and attack!?
I don't think Donaldson should've come on eather, idve gone with Sharp or Holmes, sharp always tries for the club and I'm guessing Holmes is dieing to prove himself, if he ever gets a chance that Is!!

What do you guys think???

I think I'm glad that Chris Wilder is our manager and makes his decisions based on what he sees of the players every day in training, what he knows about their fitness and mental state, what the plan is that he has communicated to the players, and not on preconceived opinions of the players made from afar

 

[BigBed]

I am also glad he is our gaffer, but, don't some of his substitutions baffle you??

 

[blade too long]

on sheer statistics its not in our ands, but if we win all 4 with all the others playing each other we would be very unlucky for 2 of them to better the total

still think 3 wins and a draw will get us in 6th

 

[Houston_Blade]

Yeah I get it. That's not a very interesting discussion though.
If you only want to talk mathematics then fair enough but fans naturally want to discuss more widely than that.
The minute you open up speculation as to how the p/o chasing teams will fare it becomes a different conversation.

But then the discussion would be “can you we get 6th place?”, not “is it in our hands?”. The answer to the first is “no” whichever way you look at it.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Win our next 7 games and we are in the Premier League.

Not necessarily.

 

[tomtheblade]

But then the discussion would be “can you we get 6th place?”, not “is it in our hands?”. The answer to the first is “no” whichever way you look at it.

Then you have a thread with one post in it.
I agree with you, and you're welcome to have that 6 word discussion, but on a football forum i don't think it's unreasonable to talk a bit beyond that.

 

[Grappler]

I think, not holding on for a few more minutes against Cardiff, and then the Barnsley game, will have cost us.

But, I won't give up until it is mathematically impossible, and if that means going to Bristol with all to play for, so be it............

 

[Rob86]

Saturday is a must win. Draw or lose and the season is done. Millwall have been on an unbelievable run, very well done to them, but no amount of ‘we’re just enjoying it and having fun’ from the manager will take away the fact they are now defending 6th spot and that comes with pressure.

Win Saturday and see whether we can ‘afford’ a draw but I think if we win the last 4 we’ll definitely be in the play offs.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

Then you have a thread with one post in it.
I agree with you, and you're welcome to have that 6 word discussion, but on a football forum i don't think it's unreasonable to talk a bit beyond that.

Of course the conversation moves on and develops, nothing wrong with that, but there is something wrong with saying it's in our hands when it isn't, as some keep doing, on a subject which is all about specific permutations, results and points. It is actually anything but "in our hands" as we now need more than one club to cock up whilst we perform better than we have all year.
I do think we can do it, but I also think a lot of this speculation is a bit premature. If we lose on Saturday all of this is moot and this thread will be quietly brushed under the carpet.

 

[Houston_Blade]

Then you have a thread with one post in it.
I agree with you, and you're welcome to have that 6 word discussion, but on a football forum i don't think it's unreasonable to talk a bit beyond that.

Why would it have one post in it? Surely by asking if we can get in the play offs you’ll have all the usual suspects saying how we’ll smash all comers between now and the end of the season, the miserable fuckers saying we’re doomed and a smattering in the middle.

 

[tomtheblade]

Why would it have one post in it? Surely by asking if we can get in the play offs you’ll have all the usual suspects saying how we’ll smash all comers between now and the end of the season, the miserable fuckers saying we’re doomed and a smattering in the middle.

I meant regarding the original question of 'is it in our hands', rather than 'can we make the playoffs'. If you answer the first question alone then it's true the answer is no, but once you add in any extra premises or conditions, as is normal on a football forum, then you can give a more nuanced answer.
When we ask 'who will make the United starting XI on saturday', and someone responds 'well, I think if opposition starts striker X we will start this defender as they can deal with him better', we don't complain that the person has added conditions to the question. It's a reasonable response to the conversation. If someone else responds 'I don't know and no other fan does either' then of course that's accurate and narrowly accurately responding to the question, but it's not really in keeping with the spirit of the discussion.

Just out of curiosity though, here's a few scenarios.

Team A and team B play each other on the opening day of the season. Team A wins that game and goes onto win their next, with team B drawing their 2nd game. Is winning the title in team B's hands? Mathematically no. Realistically speaking surely it still is as there's so much left to play for.

Team C and team D are both fighting relegation. With 4 games remaining, team C, 4th bottom have a 1 point & 1 place advantage over team D 3rd bottom, but play the top four teams in the league who are all fighting for the title/Europe whereas team D plays midtable sides with nothing to play for. Is survival in team D's hands?

Team E are fighting for the playoffs with 4 games remaining. They are 11 points and 2 places behind 6th, with none of the teams playing each other in the remaining games. Is it still in their hands? Clearly not, they are relying on multiple teams losing every single game and for them to win every one.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

I meant regarding the original question of 'is it in our hands', rather than 'can we make the playoffs'. If you answer the first question alone then it's true the answer is no, but once you add in any extra premises or conditions, as is normal on a football forum, then you can give a more nuanced answer.
When we ask 'who will make the United starting XI on saturday', and someone responds 'well, I think if opposition starts striker X we will start this defender as they can deal with him better', we don't complain that the person has added conditions to the question. It's a reasonable response to the conversation. If someone else responds 'I don't know and no other fan does either' then of course that's accurate and narrowly accurately responding to the question, but it's not really in keeping with the spirit of the discussion.

Just out of curiosity though, here's a few scenarios.

Team A and team B play each other on the opening day of the season. Team A wins that game and goes onto win their next, with team B drawing their 2nd game. Is winning the title in team B's hands? Mathematically no. Realistically speaking surely it still is as there's so much left to play for.

Team C and team D are both fighting relegation. With 4 games remaining, team C, 4th bottom have a 1 point & 1 place advantage over team D 3rd bottom, but play the top four teams in the league who are all fighting for the title/Europe whereas team D plays midtable sides with nothing to play for. Is survival in team D's hands?

Team E are fighting for the playoffs with 4 games remaining. They are 11 points and 2 places behind 6th, with none of the teams playing each other in the remaining games. Is it still in their hands? Clearly not, they are relying on multiple teams losing every single game and for them to win every one.

tomtheblade mate, stop now, you just keep demonstrating that you don't know what "in our own hands" means. The answers to your examples are:
1) No. You answered that yourself. "in the teams own hands" =/= "all to play for".
2) No. It's all in team C's hands; it's theirs to throw away and until they do, team D can't save themselves even if they win all their games, regardless of the opponents.
3) No, as you've answered.

"in our own hands" doesn't mean "there's a chance", or "we can do it", or even "it's likely we'll do it". It means that no other team can do anything about stopping us getting 6th place if we win all our games. It means that and only that. And at the moment, they can.

 

[tomtheblade]

tomtheblade mate, stop now, you just keep demonstrating that you don't know what "in our own hands" means. The answers to your examples are:
1) No. You answered that yourself. "in the teams own hands" =/= "all to play for".
2) No. It's all in team C's hands; it's theirs to throw away and until they do, team D can't save themselves even if they win all their games, regardless of the opponents.
3) No, as you've answered.

"in our own hands" doesn't mean "there's a chance", or "we can do it", or even "it's likely we'll do it". It means that no other team can do anything about stopping us getting 6th place if we win all our games. It means that and only that. And at the moment, they can.

I know what it means. My purpose was not to answer the original question, but to expand upon that by considering extra conditions or questions. No worries if you don't want to look at it that way.

 

[Hamburg Blade]

I know what it means. My purpose was not to answer the original question, but to expand upon that by considering extra conditions or questions. No worries if you don't want to look at it that way.

You can look at it that way, we all do, we've got to the point in the season where we're all sat with calculators and prediction tables. You just can't use a phrase that means one thing to mean a different thing. As I say, it's all a bit premature. Millwall is the big one. Lose it and we've pretty much blown it. Win it and our situation will be much clearer. I reckon we need 3 wins, but Millwall has to be one of them.

 

[BladeFisher]

Middlesborough won't win their remaining games. They might not lose any of them, but they certainly won't beat Bristol (H), Derby (A) & Millwall (H). There'll be at least one draw in those three. If, and it's a big if, we can win our last 4 games we'll get 6th. I'd love it going down to us v Bristol, last game of the season to see who claims the last play off spot. Pay back for 87/88.

And when was the last time we won 4 league games on the bounce?

I can't see it happening. We're not good enough

3-6 IMO will be Cardiff, Villa, Millwall and Boro. We'll lose to Millwall I reckon.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

And when was the last time we won 4 league games on the bounce?

This time last year!

 

[Houston_Blade]

I meant regarding the original question of 'is it in our hands', rather than 'can we make the playoffs'. If you answer the first question alone then it's true the answer is no, but once you add in any extra premises or conditions, as is normal on a football forum, then you can give a more nuanced answer.
When we ask 'who will make the United starting XI on saturday', and someone responds 'well, I think if opposition starts striker X we will start this defender as they can deal with him better', we don't complain that the person has added conditions to the question. It's a reasonable response to the conversation. If someone else responds 'I don't know and no other fan does either' then of course that's accurate and narrowly accurately responding to the question, but it's not really in keeping with the spirit of the discussion.

Just out of curiosity though, here's a few scenarios.

Team A and team B play each other on the opening day of the season. Team A wins that game and goes onto win their next, with team B drawing their 2nd game. Is winning the title in team B's hands? Mathematically no. Realistically speaking surely it still is as there's so much left to play for.

Team C and team D are both fighting relegation. With 4 games remaining, team C, 4th bottom have a 1 point & 1 place advantage over team D 3rd bottom, but play the top four teams in the league who are all fighting for the title/Europe whereas team D plays midtable sides with nothing to play for. Is survival in team D's hands?

Team E are fighting for the playoffs with 4 games remaining. They are 11 points and 2 places behind 6th, with none of the teams playing each other in the remaining games. Is it still in their hands? Clearly not, they are relying on multiple teams losing every single game and for them to win every one.

Hammer and chisel required here I think.