The Bohemian
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- Jul 24, 2012
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Intro
This year’s Epsom Derby comprised of 16 runners, including the winner, Harzand, who I was fortunate to back at a more than satisfactory price of 13/2.
Harzand was the son of a Group 1 winning sire, with a stamina rating of 9f+. He had finished in the first 3 in all his starts this season and achieved a Racing Post racing in excess of 112 for his last run prior to The Derby.
The significance of Harzand’s winning profile was that it matched that of every other Epsom Derby winner in the past ten years.
So how “fortunate” was I? By using the profiling data listed above, plus a few other pointers, I was left with a manageable short list of horses upon which I could apply my own judgement and find the winner.
Next season will be The Blades’ sixth, mired in the third tier of English football. During that time, we’ve experienced five ‘permanent’ managers, dozens of players, a myriad of formations and wasted millions of pounds in trying to get out, culminating in last season’s mid-table finish – our worst in 33 years.
So I used Soccerbase.com, Wikipedia and individual club websites to look at what’s needed to get out of League One, ideally as Champions, in a bit more detail. In doing so, I decided to crosscheck the accuracy of some of the anecdotes and opinions proffered by supporters and, even, perpetuated by recent managers, in reference to our under-achievement.
My main area of focus was the squad of players utilised by clubs in winning League One over the past ten years. For the purpose of comparison, I looked at five season’s worth of data for the teams finishing runners-up, being promoted via the play-offs or being relegated.
Previous finish
I started by looking for patterns in table-topping teams’ finishing position in the season prior to winning League One.
One assumption might have been that a near miss last time round could provide the foundations for a table-topping effort next time. Not the case. Five of the last ten Champions had been relegated from The Championship the season before – including last season’s winners, Wigan. The remaining five finished: 12, 13, 13, 7 and 12. So, not a single previous season’s Play-off failure went on to win League One in the past ten seasons. Indeed it appears that a mid-table finish is preferable to just missing out – perhaps providing the impetus for the drastic surgery required to build a winning team. Maybe this is the one and only positive to be taken from The Blades’ mid table finish last season?
Of the five Runners up examined, Burton achieved consecutive promotions having topped League Two in 2015, whilst the others finished: 10, 11, 3 and 15. Indeed, over the past ten seasons, the only teams finishing in the top two having been in the previous season’s League One Play-offs were Leeds and Forest. Otherwise, a mid to upper mid-table finish is preferable.
A Settled Team
Nigel Adkins regularly mentioned the importance of a settled team and the benefits of having a smaller, more manageable squad of players to deal with.
Many supporters agreed with this, citing the mantra of “quality over quantity” as a more likely recipe for success than the ‘pile ‘em high, pay ‘em too much, sell ‘em cheap’ (eventually) philosophy pursued more recently by The Blades.
I looked at three constituents of a “settled team.” Firstly, the number of players starting a significant number of games during the winning season (a minimum of 10 starts for permanent players and 6 for loans was the benchmark). We’ll call this group: contributors.
Next, I looked at the total number of players given starts during the winning season. We’ll call this group: starters.
Finally, I applied the 75% rule (well, 73.9% actually), which meant looking at the number of players, from each team, who had started 34 or more league games during the winning season. We’ll call this group: regulars.
The average number of contributors used by League One Champions over the past ten season was just 16.7. Runners up were almost identical, using 16.8 contributors.
As we looked further down the league table the number of contributors increased, with Play off winners using 18.6 and relegated teams: 21.
A similar pattern emerged with starters, with the League One winners averaging 25.7 and the runners up 27.8. Play off winners used slightly more starters, averaging 28.2, whilst our sample of relegated teams jumped to an average of 34.6 players – almost nine more than our table-toppers.
The Blades had 18 contributors and 31 starters – well above the average, on both counts, to win League One or achieve the stated objective of automatic promotion.
Application of the 75% rule only served to confirm the pattern established with the starters and contributors. The winning teams achieved a commendable average of 6.7 regulars, starting a minimum of 34 league games. Runners up averaged 6.0, Play-off winners 5.0 and relegated teams only 4.4. Here, again, The Blades were out of kilter with the winning formula with just Basham (43), Sharp (42) and Edgar (35) making the requisite number of starts.
To win League One requires a settled team based around a relatively small squad, including loans, of around 26 players. It’s then up to the Manager to work out his best team and build it around a core of 6-7 players who, barring injuries and suspensions, need to appear week in, week out. Adkins’s and Wilder’s point about signing physically strong and durable players is clearly relevant here.
Age of squad
The next area of research was the optimum age of a League One winning squad. Many supporters have lambasted Adkins for signing older players, seemingly unsuited to the demands of competing in League One. But does it matter?
The average age of Adkins’ contributors was 28 – a full two years older than the average for League One winners, which averaged 25.9 (the oldest winning team averaged 26.7). Whilst Adkins cannot be held responsible for the squad he inherited, he can be held responsible for the players he signed, who were aged: 29, 30, 30 and 33.
Adkins’ proclaimed “pathway for youth” was, in reality, a road to oblivion. He consistently chose to overlook younger options such as Louis Reed and Ben Whiteman in favour of older players who under-delivered.
Overall, squad age didn’t vary greatly between the winners, runners-up (26.3) and even relegated teams (26.2). It’s simply the case that, by League One standards, The Blades had an unusually old team.
Permanent Signings
One of the most contentious and hotly debated aspects of Blades’ performance last season (probably every season) was transfer policy. Many supporters complain that the club fails to spend enough on players, relying too heavily on free transfers, whilst others suggest that the way out of League One is through signing the best players from the lower leagues, rather than, as Adkins preferred, players from Premier League or Championship teams.
I looked at the number of new players introduced by winning teams in the summer before, and season of, triumph; whether the player was signed from a higher, lower or the same league; if a fee was payable and the age of the player signed.
Quantity signed
League One Champions introduced an average of 8.1 new contributors (including permanent and loans) during their winning season; closely matched by Runners-up (8.4) and Play-off winners (7.8).
Relegated teams used significantly more, with an average of 10.4, probably indicative of an increasingly desperate attempt to find a winning formula.
Last season’s Blades team was well below the average, introducing only 5 new contributors – something which Adkins highlighted in his pre-sacking salvo. This shouldn’t be viewed as too much of an excuse though as Wolves (5) and Brighton (6) both got the job done with fewer than average new players, demonstrating that it’s making the right signings that really matters.
Fee or Free
Regarding the most contentious area of transfer policy – and the idea that relying on free transfers and out of contract players demonstrates “a lack of ambition” on the part of a club owner: League One winners made an average of 5.3 permanent signings, of which 2.7 involved a fee and 2.6 arrived on either a free or out of contract basis. More significant, may be the fact that winning teams averaged at least one more permanent signing than Runners up and Play-off winners.
Runners up were closely matched on fee purchases, at 2.8 but utilised fewer free players at an average of 1.8.
Meanwhile, Play-off winners paid a fee for an average of just 0.8 players, relying significantly more on free transfers (2.6).
Whilst there is no clear evidence to support the idea that paying a transfer fee for a player is more beneficial than signing one without a fee involved it is also true to say that every League One winner in the past ten years paid a fee for at least one player in the run up to or during their winning season.
Relegated teams proved that paying transfer fees is, in itself, no guarantee of success. They paid out for an average of 2.2 players in their relegation season and actually made more permanent signings than both Runners up and Play-off winners.
Previous club
Another area of contention has been whether the route out of League One is best navigated using players signed from higher leagues or the best talent plucked from League One or Two. The weight of argument has been against signing, in particular, older players from higher leagues.
Table topping teams signed, on average, more players from leagues one and two (3.2) than the leagues above (2.1). Runners up followed a similar pattern (2.6 v 2.0) and Play-off winners likewise (2.2 v 1.2). Relegated teams showed the greatest differential, signing an average of 3.6 players from the lower two leagues and just 1.4 from above.
This was yet another trend The Blades tried to buck, last season, when focusing entirely on signing players from higher leagues. No League One winner in the past ten years has succeeded on this basis. The only one to come close was Wolves, who were still receiving parachute payments, and made only one, high quality, signing, from the lower leagues – a strapping, Scottish boy by the name of McDonald.
Age
Most supporters seem to prefer to see their manager signing young talent rather than players perceived to be heading towards the back end of their careers. But does it matter?
We already know that the oldest winning squad of the past ten years averaged just 26.7, with the average being just 25.9. But this reflects the balance of all the contributors in a squad, not just new signings.
In order to better reflect the age profile of a squad, I deducted goalkeepers, who are occasionally signed at an advanced stage of maturity – such as Wigan’s, 41 year old, Jaaskelainen.
The average age of new permanent signings for both League One winners and Runners up was almost identical, at 26.2 and 26.3 respectively. Wigan’s permanent signings were the youngest batch, averaging 23, contrasting with previous season’s champs, Bristol City who’s six permanent signings came in with an average age of 29 (this figure was inflated by 37 year old, Wade Elliott). The remainder were all around the mid-twenties mark, which suggests the need to look for players in their prime and not to underestimate the value of a good few years of league experience.
The average age of permanent signings for Play off winners was lower, at 25.3 and for relegated teams, higher, at 26.5.
Loans
Blades’ policy on loan signings has veered more sharply than Boris Johnson’s views on the EU, over recent years.
During our 2011/12, relegation, season a total of eleven players were loaned in. Having decided that was too many and a bad idea, the figure reduced to just four in 2012/13 before moving back to double figures – 10 – in 2013/14. For the past two seasons it’s been back down to four.
So, how does this compare with what League One winners do?
Whilst we’ve looked at all loan signings: to be considered a contributor a loan signing needs to have made a minimum of 6 starts (an arbitrary figure but it does filter out most short term ‘cover’ signings). Only loan signings who made at least one start are considered within the data.
On this basis, League One winners used an average of 4.4 loan players during their season of glory, accounting for 10% of all the season’s starting appearances. Of these, an average of just 2.7 made six or more starts and qualified as contributors. Wolves, during their winning season, did not sign a single loan player, whereas Brighton and Leicester signed nine. Leicester made much greater use of its nine, with six contributors, whereas Brighton had only two who made six or more starts.
What this demonstrates is, within reasonable boundaries, there is no right or wrong number of loan players that should be utilised as part of a winning team. Far more relevant is the judgement made on the type of player signed.
A noteworthy pattern is the increasing use of loan players as we move beyond the list of winners. Runners-up used an average of 7.0, accounting for 15% of all the season’s starts. For Play-off winners this increased modestly to 7.4 - 17% of all starts. For relegated teams the number of loans utilised jumps dramatically, to 11.2 - 19% of all starts. This emphasises the earlier point about “reasonable boundaries.” A team with an overbearing concentration of loan players seems less likely to have the stability and cohesiveness required to mount a serious promotion challenge, let alone win the league. Over-reliance on loan signings can also spell disaster – as it did the The Blades in 2011.
Loan signings were, on average, significantly younger than the age of permanent players. For League One winners the difference was almost two years – 25.9 v 24.0. A similar pattern was evident with Runners up and relegated teams - both averaged around 24 years, with Play-off winner loan signings averaging 22.7.
Once again, The Blades were out of sync with this trend, last season, with loan signings averaging over 30 years of age.
Parent club
A strong pattern emerged in respect of the league status of the parent club of loan signings. For both League One winners and Runners up, a substantial majority came from either the Premier League or Championship (average of 2.2) with a negligible number coming from League One and Two (average of 0.5).
Play-off winners relied more on loan signings from the lower leagues (average of 1.4) and relegated teams, even more (average of 1.8).
There is an intuitive logic, which seems borne out by the data, that suggests signing players on loan from the same or a lower league is likely to be counter-productive unless the loan is a precursor to a permanent transfer.
League One winners, typically, sign loan players in their early twenties from higher league clubs. Successful loan signings made by League One winners over the past decade have included (at the time) young players such as Jermaine Beckford, Tom Cleverley and Fraser Forster – and others who subsequently proved their capability at a higher level. Spotting and recruiting such players is a key element of transfer activity for winning teams.
Loan strikers – appearances/goals
The ability to sign a goal scoring loan striker can play a major role in winning League One. Loan contributors (with 6 or more starts) scored 55 goals in 140 appearances - for the six League One winners who used this resource in our study period – at a strike rate of 39%. Whilst it’s not an essential element of winning the title, it can clearly help
Goals from defence and midfield
Another complaint of Blades teams over recent years is the perceived lack of goals scored by defenders and midfield players, so I looked at how relevant this is to a team’s prospects of winning League One.
It turned out to be very relevant – at least in terms of winning automatic promotion – with defenders and midfielders of League One winners contributing an average of 35.6 goals and Runners up only marginally behind with 35.4.
Play-off winners are well behind with 28.4 and relegated teams further still with an average of 25 goals from their non-strikers. Most alarmingly, The Blades’, 2015/16, tally was even worse, with a paltry 23 goals from defence and midfield. Had it not been for a certain Mr Sharp and his contribution of 21 league goals, amounting to just shy of one in three of all last season’s league goals, it is quite possible The Blades would have been fighting a relegation battle.
Total Goals
Winning League One requires a contribution of goals from across the team and plenty of them. The average goals scored by winners, over the past ten years, is an impressive 83.6. Runners up and Play off winners both weighed in with 77, whilst the ineptitude in front of goal of relegated teams (an average of 46.2 goals) was a critical element of their demise.
Academy players
I looked at the regularity with which home grown Academy players featured as contributors in the League One winning season for the past ten seasons.
Table-topping teams featured an average of 1.9 Academy contributors, the highest of all our featured categories. Runners up used 0.8 and Play-off winners 1.0. Interestingly, for relegated teams the figure rises again to 1.6.
A note of caution here, before we read too much into these figures as it could simply be the case that clubs with greater means have the resources to fund well run Academies and league winning campaigns, whilst, in contrast, teams with lesser funds feel obligated to utilise younger, home grown players simply because they cost less.
Conclusion
So what does the perfect League One winning team look like?
Previous finish: Relegated from Championship or mid-table in League One
Squad size (based on total starters): 26
Average age: 26
Starts made by players aged 25 and under: 49%
Number of players starting 75%+ league games: 7
Goals from defence and midfield: 36
Total goals: 84
New permanent signings: 5 (split between fee and free)
Previous club of new signings: ratio of 2 (higher league): 2 (League One): 1 (lower league)
Average age of signings: 26
Total loan signings: 4
Previous club of loan signings: Premier League or Championship
Average age of loan signings: 24
In summary, we’re looking for a squad of around 26 players, with an average age of 26, and at least 6 players capable and durable enough to start at least 75% of all league games.
The squad needs to have firepower across the team, with defence and midfield capable of contributing around 36 goals, from a total of, approximately, 84, required to make a title challenge.
Investment in new blood is a key element of winning the league, with around 5 new players needed, being a mixture of free and fee signings. New signings will, in all likelihood, be evenly split between those signed from a higher league or League One, with a minority from a lower league.
In the region of 4 loan signings, from higher league clubs, will probably be needed over the course of the season but these should be used judiciously so as not to upset the overall balance of the squad.
If goals are proving hard to come by, a loan striker can prove an effective option. He will, typically, be aged around 24 and signed from a higher league club. Most critically, he will be capable of scoring at a strike rate of just under a goal every two games.
The Class of 2012
In one of the classic hard luck stories to have befallen The Blades in recent times, promotion was snatched from their grasp in 2012 when free scoring striker, Ched Evans, was jailed with 3 games left of the season.
So how did the Class of 2012 fare against our criteria?
The 2012 team had been relegated the previous season, which is excellent preparation for a title challenge.
The squad size was 28 with an average age of 27, both slightly higher than our ideal but comfortably within the range of other title winners.
There was the requisite hard core of 6 players (Simonsen, Collins, Lowton, Maguire, Doyle and Quinn) who started 75%+ of all league games during the 2011/12 campaign. Once more, within our range.
Critically, the squad had firepower in all areas with an almost perfect, 35 goals emanating from defence and midfield from an impressive overall total of 92 (comfortably above the average).
The squad included 3 new permanent signings (Simonsen, Flynn and McDonald) signed from a combination of higher league clubs and (Flynn) from Scotland. The outfield pair were aged 23 – below average but within range.
Two loan signings (Hill and Williams) contributed with 6 or more starts, both signed from higher leagues, with an average age of 28.5, higher than ideal but still within range and slightly less than the average age for Charlton who won the 2012 title.
The Class of 2012 had an almost perfect profile for a League One winning team and was within the range of winning data on every key measure. 2012 was truly the open goal that was squandered.
2016-17
Whilst it’s very early days, the early signs for new manager, Chris Wilder, are encouraging. His emphasis on a smaller, close knit squad, which makes a settled team more likely is a good start: “The new {loan} system favours us because we have a top academy, and we can supplement a squad of 24 or 25 players with our own youngsters coming through.”
He has already shown a commitment to broadening his focus on new signings beyond just the higher leagues, with his stated desire to sign the “best players from League One and League Two.”
However, he needs to set his sights higher in respect of goals scored: “Wherever they come from, it has to tally up to more than 70. If you get there then, in my opinion, you’ve given yourselves a great chance.”
Only one team, Doncaster, with 62 in 2013, has won the league with less than 70 goals. Eight of the remainder scored over 80 during their march to The Championship.
Wilder has plenty of work to do to put together a League One winning squad but seems particularly driven to succeed. The Blades are currently, a best-priced 13/2, favourites to win the title. I might just take that!
This year’s Epsom Derby comprised of 16 runners, including the winner, Harzand, who I was fortunate to back at a more than satisfactory price of 13/2.
Harzand was the son of a Group 1 winning sire, with a stamina rating of 9f+. He had finished in the first 3 in all his starts this season and achieved a Racing Post racing in excess of 112 for his last run prior to The Derby.
The significance of Harzand’s winning profile was that it matched that of every other Epsom Derby winner in the past ten years.
So how “fortunate” was I? By using the profiling data listed above, plus a few other pointers, I was left with a manageable short list of horses upon which I could apply my own judgement and find the winner.
Next season will be The Blades’ sixth, mired in the third tier of English football. During that time, we’ve experienced five ‘permanent’ managers, dozens of players, a myriad of formations and wasted millions of pounds in trying to get out, culminating in last season’s mid-table finish – our worst in 33 years.
So I used Soccerbase.com, Wikipedia and individual club websites to look at what’s needed to get out of League One, ideally as Champions, in a bit more detail. In doing so, I decided to crosscheck the accuracy of some of the anecdotes and opinions proffered by supporters and, even, perpetuated by recent managers, in reference to our under-achievement.
My main area of focus was the squad of players utilised by clubs in winning League One over the past ten years. For the purpose of comparison, I looked at five season’s worth of data for the teams finishing runners-up, being promoted via the play-offs or being relegated.
Previous finish
I started by looking for patterns in table-topping teams’ finishing position in the season prior to winning League One.
One assumption might have been that a near miss last time round could provide the foundations for a table-topping effort next time. Not the case. Five of the last ten Champions had been relegated from The Championship the season before – including last season’s winners, Wigan. The remaining five finished: 12, 13, 13, 7 and 12. So, not a single previous season’s Play-off failure went on to win League One in the past ten seasons. Indeed it appears that a mid-table finish is preferable to just missing out – perhaps providing the impetus for the drastic surgery required to build a winning team. Maybe this is the one and only positive to be taken from The Blades’ mid table finish last season?
Of the five Runners up examined, Burton achieved consecutive promotions having topped League Two in 2015, whilst the others finished: 10, 11, 3 and 15. Indeed, over the past ten seasons, the only teams finishing in the top two having been in the previous season’s League One Play-offs were Leeds and Forest. Otherwise, a mid to upper mid-table finish is preferable.
A Settled Team
Nigel Adkins regularly mentioned the importance of a settled team and the benefits of having a smaller, more manageable squad of players to deal with.
Many supporters agreed with this, citing the mantra of “quality over quantity” as a more likely recipe for success than the ‘pile ‘em high, pay ‘em too much, sell ‘em cheap’ (eventually) philosophy pursued more recently by The Blades.
I looked at three constituents of a “settled team.” Firstly, the number of players starting a significant number of games during the winning season (a minimum of 10 starts for permanent players and 6 for loans was the benchmark). We’ll call this group: contributors.
Next, I looked at the total number of players given starts during the winning season. We’ll call this group: starters.
Finally, I applied the 75% rule (well, 73.9% actually), which meant looking at the number of players, from each team, who had started 34 or more league games during the winning season. We’ll call this group: regulars.
The average number of contributors used by League One Champions over the past ten season was just 16.7. Runners up were almost identical, using 16.8 contributors.
As we looked further down the league table the number of contributors increased, with Play off winners using 18.6 and relegated teams: 21.
A similar pattern emerged with starters, with the League One winners averaging 25.7 and the runners up 27.8. Play off winners used slightly more starters, averaging 28.2, whilst our sample of relegated teams jumped to an average of 34.6 players – almost nine more than our table-toppers.
The Blades had 18 contributors and 31 starters – well above the average, on both counts, to win League One or achieve the stated objective of automatic promotion.
Application of the 75% rule only served to confirm the pattern established with the starters and contributors. The winning teams achieved a commendable average of 6.7 regulars, starting a minimum of 34 league games. Runners up averaged 6.0, Play-off winners 5.0 and relegated teams only 4.4. Here, again, The Blades were out of kilter with the winning formula with just Basham (43), Sharp (42) and Edgar (35) making the requisite number of starts.
To win League One requires a settled team based around a relatively small squad, including loans, of around 26 players. It’s then up to the Manager to work out his best team and build it around a core of 6-7 players who, barring injuries and suspensions, need to appear week in, week out. Adkins’s and Wilder’s point about signing physically strong and durable players is clearly relevant here.
Age of squad
The next area of research was the optimum age of a League One winning squad. Many supporters have lambasted Adkins for signing older players, seemingly unsuited to the demands of competing in League One. But does it matter?
The average age of Adkins’ contributors was 28 – a full two years older than the average for League One winners, which averaged 25.9 (the oldest winning team averaged 26.7). Whilst Adkins cannot be held responsible for the squad he inherited, he can be held responsible for the players he signed, who were aged: 29, 30, 30 and 33.
Adkins’ proclaimed “pathway for youth” was, in reality, a road to oblivion. He consistently chose to overlook younger options such as Louis Reed and Ben Whiteman in favour of older players who under-delivered.
Overall, squad age didn’t vary greatly between the winners, runners-up (26.3) and even relegated teams (26.2). It’s simply the case that, by League One standards, The Blades had an unusually old team.
Permanent Signings
One of the most contentious and hotly debated aspects of Blades’ performance last season (probably every season) was transfer policy. Many supporters complain that the club fails to spend enough on players, relying too heavily on free transfers, whilst others suggest that the way out of League One is through signing the best players from the lower leagues, rather than, as Adkins preferred, players from Premier League or Championship teams.
I looked at the number of new players introduced by winning teams in the summer before, and season of, triumph; whether the player was signed from a higher, lower or the same league; if a fee was payable and the age of the player signed.
Quantity signed
League One Champions introduced an average of 8.1 new contributors (including permanent and loans) during their winning season; closely matched by Runners-up (8.4) and Play-off winners (7.8).
Relegated teams used significantly more, with an average of 10.4, probably indicative of an increasingly desperate attempt to find a winning formula.
Last season’s Blades team was well below the average, introducing only 5 new contributors – something which Adkins highlighted in his pre-sacking salvo. This shouldn’t be viewed as too much of an excuse though as Wolves (5) and Brighton (6) both got the job done with fewer than average new players, demonstrating that it’s making the right signings that really matters.
Fee or Free
Regarding the most contentious area of transfer policy – and the idea that relying on free transfers and out of contract players demonstrates “a lack of ambition” on the part of a club owner: League One winners made an average of 5.3 permanent signings, of which 2.7 involved a fee and 2.6 arrived on either a free or out of contract basis. More significant, may be the fact that winning teams averaged at least one more permanent signing than Runners up and Play-off winners.
Runners up were closely matched on fee purchases, at 2.8 but utilised fewer free players at an average of 1.8.
Meanwhile, Play-off winners paid a fee for an average of just 0.8 players, relying significantly more on free transfers (2.6).
Whilst there is no clear evidence to support the idea that paying a transfer fee for a player is more beneficial than signing one without a fee involved it is also true to say that every League One winner in the past ten years paid a fee for at least one player in the run up to or during their winning season.
Relegated teams proved that paying transfer fees is, in itself, no guarantee of success. They paid out for an average of 2.2 players in their relegation season and actually made more permanent signings than both Runners up and Play-off winners.
Previous club
Another area of contention has been whether the route out of League One is best navigated using players signed from higher leagues or the best talent plucked from League One or Two. The weight of argument has been against signing, in particular, older players from higher leagues.
Table topping teams signed, on average, more players from leagues one and two (3.2) than the leagues above (2.1). Runners up followed a similar pattern (2.6 v 2.0) and Play-off winners likewise (2.2 v 1.2). Relegated teams showed the greatest differential, signing an average of 3.6 players from the lower two leagues and just 1.4 from above.
This was yet another trend The Blades tried to buck, last season, when focusing entirely on signing players from higher leagues. No League One winner in the past ten years has succeeded on this basis. The only one to come close was Wolves, who were still receiving parachute payments, and made only one, high quality, signing, from the lower leagues – a strapping, Scottish boy by the name of McDonald.
Age
Most supporters seem to prefer to see their manager signing young talent rather than players perceived to be heading towards the back end of their careers. But does it matter?
We already know that the oldest winning squad of the past ten years averaged just 26.7, with the average being just 25.9. But this reflects the balance of all the contributors in a squad, not just new signings.
In order to better reflect the age profile of a squad, I deducted goalkeepers, who are occasionally signed at an advanced stage of maturity – such as Wigan’s, 41 year old, Jaaskelainen.
The average age of new permanent signings for both League One winners and Runners up was almost identical, at 26.2 and 26.3 respectively. Wigan’s permanent signings were the youngest batch, averaging 23, contrasting with previous season’s champs, Bristol City who’s six permanent signings came in with an average age of 29 (this figure was inflated by 37 year old, Wade Elliott). The remainder were all around the mid-twenties mark, which suggests the need to look for players in their prime and not to underestimate the value of a good few years of league experience.
The average age of permanent signings for Play off winners was lower, at 25.3 and for relegated teams, higher, at 26.5.
Loans
Blades’ policy on loan signings has veered more sharply than Boris Johnson’s views on the EU, over recent years.
During our 2011/12, relegation, season a total of eleven players were loaned in. Having decided that was too many and a bad idea, the figure reduced to just four in 2012/13 before moving back to double figures – 10 – in 2013/14. For the past two seasons it’s been back down to four.
So, how does this compare with what League One winners do?
Whilst we’ve looked at all loan signings: to be considered a contributor a loan signing needs to have made a minimum of 6 starts (an arbitrary figure but it does filter out most short term ‘cover’ signings). Only loan signings who made at least one start are considered within the data.
On this basis, League One winners used an average of 4.4 loan players during their season of glory, accounting for 10% of all the season’s starting appearances. Of these, an average of just 2.7 made six or more starts and qualified as contributors. Wolves, during their winning season, did not sign a single loan player, whereas Brighton and Leicester signed nine. Leicester made much greater use of its nine, with six contributors, whereas Brighton had only two who made six or more starts.
What this demonstrates is, within reasonable boundaries, there is no right or wrong number of loan players that should be utilised as part of a winning team. Far more relevant is the judgement made on the type of player signed.
A noteworthy pattern is the increasing use of loan players as we move beyond the list of winners. Runners-up used an average of 7.0, accounting for 15% of all the season’s starts. For Play-off winners this increased modestly to 7.4 - 17% of all starts. For relegated teams the number of loans utilised jumps dramatically, to 11.2 - 19% of all starts. This emphasises the earlier point about “reasonable boundaries.” A team with an overbearing concentration of loan players seems less likely to have the stability and cohesiveness required to mount a serious promotion challenge, let alone win the league. Over-reliance on loan signings can also spell disaster – as it did the The Blades in 2011.
Loan signings were, on average, significantly younger than the age of permanent players. For League One winners the difference was almost two years – 25.9 v 24.0. A similar pattern was evident with Runners up and relegated teams - both averaged around 24 years, with Play-off winner loan signings averaging 22.7.
Once again, The Blades were out of sync with this trend, last season, with loan signings averaging over 30 years of age.
Parent club
A strong pattern emerged in respect of the league status of the parent club of loan signings. For both League One winners and Runners up, a substantial majority came from either the Premier League or Championship (average of 2.2) with a negligible number coming from League One and Two (average of 0.5).
Play-off winners relied more on loan signings from the lower leagues (average of 1.4) and relegated teams, even more (average of 1.8).
There is an intuitive logic, which seems borne out by the data, that suggests signing players on loan from the same or a lower league is likely to be counter-productive unless the loan is a precursor to a permanent transfer.
League One winners, typically, sign loan players in their early twenties from higher league clubs. Successful loan signings made by League One winners over the past decade have included (at the time) young players such as Jermaine Beckford, Tom Cleverley and Fraser Forster – and others who subsequently proved their capability at a higher level. Spotting and recruiting such players is a key element of transfer activity for winning teams.
Loan strikers – appearances/goals
The ability to sign a goal scoring loan striker can play a major role in winning League One. Loan contributors (with 6 or more starts) scored 55 goals in 140 appearances - for the six League One winners who used this resource in our study period – at a strike rate of 39%. Whilst it’s not an essential element of winning the title, it can clearly help
Goals from defence and midfield
Another complaint of Blades teams over recent years is the perceived lack of goals scored by defenders and midfield players, so I looked at how relevant this is to a team’s prospects of winning League One.
It turned out to be very relevant – at least in terms of winning automatic promotion – with defenders and midfielders of League One winners contributing an average of 35.6 goals and Runners up only marginally behind with 35.4.
Play-off winners are well behind with 28.4 and relegated teams further still with an average of 25 goals from their non-strikers. Most alarmingly, The Blades’, 2015/16, tally was even worse, with a paltry 23 goals from defence and midfield. Had it not been for a certain Mr Sharp and his contribution of 21 league goals, amounting to just shy of one in three of all last season’s league goals, it is quite possible The Blades would have been fighting a relegation battle.
Total Goals
Winning League One requires a contribution of goals from across the team and plenty of them. The average goals scored by winners, over the past ten years, is an impressive 83.6. Runners up and Play off winners both weighed in with 77, whilst the ineptitude in front of goal of relegated teams (an average of 46.2 goals) was a critical element of their demise.
Academy players
I looked at the regularity with which home grown Academy players featured as contributors in the League One winning season for the past ten seasons.
Table-topping teams featured an average of 1.9 Academy contributors, the highest of all our featured categories. Runners up used 0.8 and Play-off winners 1.0. Interestingly, for relegated teams the figure rises again to 1.6.
A note of caution here, before we read too much into these figures as it could simply be the case that clubs with greater means have the resources to fund well run Academies and league winning campaigns, whilst, in contrast, teams with lesser funds feel obligated to utilise younger, home grown players simply because they cost less.
Conclusion
So what does the perfect League One winning team look like?
Previous finish: Relegated from Championship or mid-table in League One
Squad size (based on total starters): 26
Average age: 26
Starts made by players aged 25 and under: 49%
Number of players starting 75%+ league games: 7
Goals from defence and midfield: 36
Total goals: 84
New permanent signings: 5 (split between fee and free)
Previous club of new signings: ratio of 2 (higher league): 2 (League One): 1 (lower league)
Average age of signings: 26
Total loan signings: 4
Previous club of loan signings: Premier League or Championship
Average age of loan signings: 24
In summary, we’re looking for a squad of around 26 players, with an average age of 26, and at least 6 players capable and durable enough to start at least 75% of all league games.
The squad needs to have firepower across the team, with defence and midfield capable of contributing around 36 goals, from a total of, approximately, 84, required to make a title challenge.
Investment in new blood is a key element of winning the league, with around 5 new players needed, being a mixture of free and fee signings. New signings will, in all likelihood, be evenly split between those signed from a higher league or League One, with a minority from a lower league.
In the region of 4 loan signings, from higher league clubs, will probably be needed over the course of the season but these should be used judiciously so as not to upset the overall balance of the squad.
If goals are proving hard to come by, a loan striker can prove an effective option. He will, typically, be aged around 24 and signed from a higher league club. Most critically, he will be capable of scoring at a strike rate of just under a goal every two games.
The Class of 2012
In one of the classic hard luck stories to have befallen The Blades in recent times, promotion was snatched from their grasp in 2012 when free scoring striker, Ched Evans, was jailed with 3 games left of the season.
So how did the Class of 2012 fare against our criteria?
The 2012 team had been relegated the previous season, which is excellent preparation for a title challenge.
The squad size was 28 with an average age of 27, both slightly higher than our ideal but comfortably within the range of other title winners.
There was the requisite hard core of 6 players (Simonsen, Collins, Lowton, Maguire, Doyle and Quinn) who started 75%+ of all league games during the 2011/12 campaign. Once more, within our range.
Critically, the squad had firepower in all areas with an almost perfect, 35 goals emanating from defence and midfield from an impressive overall total of 92 (comfortably above the average).
The squad included 3 new permanent signings (Simonsen, Flynn and McDonald) signed from a combination of higher league clubs and (Flynn) from Scotland. The outfield pair were aged 23 – below average but within range.
Two loan signings (Hill and Williams) contributed with 6 or more starts, both signed from higher leagues, with an average age of 28.5, higher than ideal but still within range and slightly less than the average age for Charlton who won the 2012 title.
The Class of 2012 had an almost perfect profile for a League One winning team and was within the range of winning data on every key measure. 2012 was truly the open goal that was squandered.
2016-17
Whilst it’s very early days, the early signs for new manager, Chris Wilder, are encouraging. His emphasis on a smaller, close knit squad, which makes a settled team more likely is a good start: “The new {loan} system favours us because we have a top academy, and we can supplement a squad of 24 or 25 players with our own youngsters coming through.”
He has already shown a commitment to broadening his focus on new signings beyond just the higher leagues, with his stated desire to sign the “best players from League One and League Two.”
However, he needs to set his sights higher in respect of goals scored: “Wherever they come from, it has to tally up to more than 70. If you get there then, in my opinion, you’ve given yourselves a great chance.”
Only one team, Doncaster, with 62 in 2013, has won the league with less than 70 goals. Eight of the remainder scored over 80 during their march to The Championship.
Wilder has plenty of work to do to put together a League One winning squad but seems particularly driven to succeed. The Blades are currently, a best-priced 13/2, favourites to win the title. I might just take that!
, cracking work, can't wait for someone to dissect it as incorrect at the end of the season 
