How many goals do we actually need to score to win promotion?

[Revolution]

I have said in a few occasions recently (and I am not the only one) that I don’t think there are enough goals in the current squad to win us promotion i.e. finish in the top 2 (a playoff place is of course useless to us).

I decided to put some flesh on the bones of my constant refrain, and check how many goals were scored by each of the promoted league one teams over a reasonable period of time: I’ve chosen the last 10 seasons as a reasonably large sample.

Bear in mind that last season, we scored 48 goals in 46 games. This was the fourth lowest total in the league, and is of course distorted by the fact that David Weir is a terrible manager. If you remove the goals Weir’s teams scored (6 in 10 games) we got 42 in 36 games under Morgan (briefly) and Clough, and that averages over a 46 game season to 53.6 goals. A bit better.

Anyway, here’s how the promoted teams did in the last 10 years. Champions total first, 2nd place total 2nd:

2014 - 89 and 72
2013 - 62 and 76
2012 - 82 and 81
2011 - 85 and 86
2010 - 89 and 77
2009 - 84 and 78
2008 - 82 and 64
2007 - 73 and 63
2006 - 72 and 58
2005 - 87 and 80

1st place average goals scored: 80.5 Median: 83
2nd place average goals scored: 73.5 Median: 76.5

A few points worth noting:

1. No one scored as many goals as we did in 2012 when we missed promotion.

2. Most of the teams who scored less than 75 goals had excellent goal differences, due to conceding few goals, (64-32, 73-35, 63-39, 72-43, 58-40). The quasi-exception is Doncaster who somehow managed to win the league in 2013 with a +18 goal difference from scoring 62 and conceding 44. Looks like a bit of a fluke. It is also noteworthy that most of the low totals came from 2005 to 2009, suggesting more goals will be needed this coming season.

3. Point 2 is interesting because of United’s decent defensive record. In years in this league we’ve conceded 51, 42 and 46 goals, all pretty good, and if we could concede 40 or less we probably wouldn’t need to score so many to do well. I would not bet on this happening if Maguire is sold, however.

Anyway, unless we win every game 1-0 or something, it looks like we need to score at least 28 or 29 goals more than we did last year. The squad as it stands surely cannot do this. We need good strikers, or we ain’t going up.

 

[Rodley]

So what you're saying is we need to buy a striker in the transfer window?

 

[stringjunior]

So what you're saying is we need to buy a striker in the transfer window?

Insightful. You could work for ITV as a pundit.

 

[drinksmat]

There is no magic number to reach, it is more about the overal team - boring boring Arsenal 1-0 wins or the Kevin Keegan "we'll score more than you" approach.

I agree with the sentiment but doing a year on year comparison does not tell the whole story - for example we only scored 1 league goal last September. The way the team is now set up I can see us doing much better this September even before a main striker is brought in.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

It will be interesting to see what approach Nige takes this season. His remit when he came was too keep us up which he did by making us hard to beat and we were arguably lucky in that we pinched a few games to finish higher than anyone expected given the start point.

We are undoubtedly favourites to go up next season and that brings a different pressure and we'll have to break teams down rather than let them try and break us down. It's these games where we need that clinical striker or someone like, dare I say, Ched who used to make goals out of nothing.

As I say, it will be interesting to see Nige's approach, Derby fans used to say he was 'don't lose first' but either way, we need a striker

 

[Esablade]

It will be interesting to see what approach Nige takes this season. His remit when he came was too keep us up which he did by making us hard to beat and we were arguably lucky in that we pinched a few games to finish higher than anyone expected given the start point.

We are undoubtedly favourites to go up next season and that brings a different pressure and we'll have to break teams down rather than let them try and break us down. It's these games where we need that clinical striker or someone like, dare I say, Ched who used to make goals out of nothing.

As I say, it will be interesting to see Nige's approach, Derby fans used to say he was 'don't lose first' but either way, we need a striker

...and it's these games where we need a 'wrecking ball' type striker ( Sammon/o Grady etc) to occupy and worry defenders so our creative players can flourish

 

[Pedro Verde]

We dont want Sammon he wouldnt worry anybody

 

[Silent Blade]

In 1969-70 season we scored 73 league goals and conceded 38. In 1970-71 we scored 73 again but conceded 39. We finished in 6th place in 1969-70 and were runners up in 1970-71 so for me , the number of points are more important than the number of goals

 

[Revolution]

In 1969-70 season we scored 73 league goals and conceded 38. In 1970-71 we scored 73 again but conceded 39. We finished in 6th place in 1969-70 and were runners up in 1970-71 so for me , the number of points are more important than the number of goals

Of course. Goals do not guarantee promotion. Look at 2012.

But the fact remains that to be in with a chance, this squad will probably have to score about 50% more goals than we managed last year.

 

[Silent Blade]

Of course. Goals do not guarantee promotion. Look at 2012.

But the fact remains that to be in with a chance, this squad will probably have to score about 50% more goals than we managed last year.

Scoring more goals will increase our chances of getting promotion but Clough might still prefer our style that is difficult to score against and safeguarding our goal lead

 

[Darren]

In 1969-70 season we scored 73 league goals and conceded 38. In 1970-71 we scored 73 again but conceded 39. We finished in 6th place in 1969-70 and were runners up in 1970-71 so for me , the number of points are more important than the number of goals

69-70 was a very strange season in that we lost 14 games, but only 1 of those defeats was by more than 1 goal (0-3 at Cardiff)

 

[Revolution]

Scoring more goals will increase our chances of getting promotion but Clough might still prefer our style that is difficult to score against and safeguarding our goal lead

He might, but that style will not get us promotion if we have a weaker defence (and we will if Maguire goes) and we will still need to score a lot more goals.

 

[stannyblade]

46 one - nil wins will get us promoted

 

[Silent Blade]

69-70 was a very strange season in that we lost 14 games, but only 1 of those defeats was by more than 1 goal (0-3 at Cardiff)

Yes it was, I became a committed Blade in January 1970. It was our 4 successive losses in March that cost us promotion

 

[Silent Blade]

He might, but that style will not get us promotion if we have a weaker defence (and we will if Maguire goes) and we will still need to score a lot more goals.

If Maguire goes it does seem on paper that we will have a weaker defence and that we will need to score more to gain promotion. Wait and see

 

[Revolution]

69-70 was a very strange season in that we lost 14 games, but only 1 of those defeats was by more than 1 goal (0-3 at Cardiff)

Goal difference is a decent predictor of league position but not decisive of course. You can have these weird seasons where teams have goal difference out of line with their league position because all their wins are big and their defeats narrow (us in 1970) or they have a lot of narrow wins but some heavy defeats (Everton when they finish 4th spring to mind).

 

[dublin 10 blade]

When the history books say we went up as champions ,
will we really give a fuck how many goals we scored , 1-0 will do me ,
unbeaten all season , and pigs to go down .

 

[Silent Blade]

Norwich finished 3rd in the PL in 1992-93 but had a minus goal difference, we got relegated to the 4th in 1980-81 but got a plus goal difference

 

[Revolution]

Norwich finished 3rd in the PL in 1992-93 but had a minus goal difference, we got relegated to the 4th in 1980-81 but got a plus goal difference

They did, and these are outliers. I think United's achievement is unique in English football. IN addition, when we went down from division 2 in 1979 we scored more goals than Crystal Palace, who were the champions.

All I am trying to show is what we will probably have to acheive.

 

[Sothall_Blade]

I have said in a few occasions recently (and I am not the only one) that I don’t think there are enough goals in the current squad to win us promotion i.e. finish in the top 2 (a playoff place is of course useless to us).

I decided to put some flesh on the bones of my constant refrain, and check how many goals were scored by each of the promoted league one teams over a reasonable period of time: I’ve chosen the last 10 seasons as a reasonably large sample.

Bear in mind that last season, we scored 48 goals in 46 games. This was the fourth lowest total in the league, and is of course distorted by the fact that David Weir is a terrible manager. If you remove the goals Weir’s teams scored (6 in 10 games) we got 42 in 36 games under Morgan (briefly) and Clough, and that averages over a 46 game season to 53.6 goals. A bit better.

Anyway, here’s how the promoted teams did in the last 10 years. Champions total first, 2nd place total 2nd:

2014 - 89 and 72
2013 - 62 and 76
2012 - 82 and 81
2011 - 85 and 86
2010 - 89 and 77
2009 - 84 and 78
2008 - 82 and 64
2007 - 73 and 63
2006 - 72 and 58
2005 - 87 and 80

1st place average goals scored: 80.5 Median: 83
2nd place average goals scored: 73.5 Median: 76.5

A few points worth noting:

1. No one scored as many goals as we did in 2012 when we missed promotion.

2. Most of the teams who scored less than 75 goals had excellent goal differences, due to conceding few goals, (64-32, 73-35, 63-39, 72-43, 58-40). The quasi-exception is Doncaster who somehow managed to win the league in 2013 with a +18 goal difference from scoring 62 and conceding 44. Looks like a bit of a fluke. It is also noteworthy that most of the low totals came from 2005 to 2009, suggesting more goals will be needed this coming season.

3. Point 2 is interesting because of United’s decent defensive record. In years in this league we’ve conceded 51, 42 and 46 goals, all pretty good, and if we could concede 40 or less we probably wouldn’t need to score so many to do well. I would not bet on this happening if Maguire is sold, however.

Anyway, unless we win every game 1-0 or something, it looks like we need to score at least 28 or 29 goals more than we did last year. The squad as it stands surely cannot do this. We need good strikers, or we ain’t going up.

By my reckoning, our stats from the Shrewsbury game onwards were 41 points and 22 goals in 19 league games.
If we could maintain that record over the course of the full season, that would give us only 53 goals but 99 points.
That's not even including cup games in which we obviously had an even better record against better teams.
Everybody is saying we need to improve to go up but we don't really, just keep it ticking along.

 

[Revolution]

By my reckoning, our stats from the Shrewsbury game onwards were 41 points and 22 goals in 19 league games.
If we could maintain that record over the course of the full season, that would give us only 53 goals but 99 points.

I don't believe winning 1-0 and drawing 0-0 and doing little else can be done over the course of a whole season.

 

[DronnieBlade]

What we need is 2 players that can get at least 30 goals between them and that is what I think Nigel will be looking at.

The rest of the team can chip in with the rest but the Vital ingredient is the potency at the business end of the pitch that we have lacked and is clear for all to see.

UTB

 

[Kenilworth]

How many goals do we actually need to score to win promotion?

Just one more than the opposition on the day for every game we play will sort it


If you need anything else - just let me know

 

[Caveblade]

46 one - nil wins will get us promoted

Beat me to it!

 

[travellingblade]

Taking that one stage further:-

22 x 1-0 with 24 0-0 draws gets us 90 points, so I would suggest a minimum of 22 goals.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Thr last time we got promoted our top scorer was Neil Shipperley with 11.

It's all about winning, not necessarily scoring a lot.

 

[Revolution]

Thr last time we got promoted our top scorer was Neil Shipperley with 11.

It's all about winning, not necessarily scoring a lot.

Er, we scored 76 goals that year. That is a lot.

 

[Silent Blade]

They did, and these are outliers. I think United's achievement is unique in English football. IN addition, when we went down from division 2 in 1979 we scored more goals than Crystal Palace, who were the champions.

All I am trying to show is what we will probably have to acheive.

Palace were more solid than us and Venables style of play was to keep the ball a lot and they didnt use many players throughout the season while we were "too entertaining" (a mixture of good results such as the double over Newcastle and bad results such as rock bottom Blackburn did the double over us) but defended badly too and we used 28 players in the league

 

[LoughboroBlade]

Thr last time we got promoted our top scorer was Neil Shipperley with 11.

It's all about winning, not necessarily scoring a lot.

Equally, in 2012 we had one player that scored 29 league goals, and scored 92 overall - 10 and 11 more than the top 2.

As everyone will remember, we got bugger all that year.

 

[Gavlar]

Most of us would agree we need to sign a couple of goalscorers, but really winning is what matters not how many goals we score. If we can win enough games even 1-0 or 2-1 then we will have enough points to get promoted. Of course you need to score goals to win, but we're talking about 1 goal or maybe 2 a game, we are solid enough at that back to get a lot of clean sheets if Harry stays. Goals can come from anywhere, not just Strikers, we should be looking at midfield or defence for goals aswell, like we did in 2012 we had Lowton, Creswell and Williamson who chipped in aswell as Ched.