Home/Away balance - stats

[Selly]

Theres been a lot of talk about teh fact that we have played more home games than away games, so I thought I'd project the final points totals based on the current Home and Away Records of everyone in the league.

Obviously it takes no account of which teams you have to play at home or away, but should help show if there are any huge discrepancies...

	Team		Projected Points
1	Charlton		104.84
2	Sheffield Utd	92.82
-----------------------------------------------------------		
3	Sheffield Wed	90.97
4	Huddersfield	88.46
5	MK Dons		88.17
6	Carlisle		75.63
-----------------------------------------------------------		
7	Stevenage	75.34
8	Brentford		66.26
9	Bournemouth	64.62
10	Preston		64.43
11	Bury		62.37
12	Notts County	61.98
13	Colchester	60.30
14	Hartlepool	58.38
15	Oldham		57.35
16	Leyton Orient	56.95
17	Tranmere		54.55
18	Exeter		46.00
19	Scunthorpe	44.08
20	Yeovil		42.17
-----------------------------------------------------------		
21	Walsall		41.89
22	Rochdale		36.56
23	Wycombe	35.38
24	Chesterfield	30.08

Additionally, who remembers the Magic Number concept from 05/06??? Basically the Magic number indicates the number of points that you need to gain/you opponants need to lose to acheive a given position. At the moment our Magic Numbers are:

For the Championship: 68
For promotion: 60
For the play-offs: 52

Also this our points total position against last seasons results

Pos	Team		
1	Brighton & Hove Albion	56.50	-3.50
2	Southampton		54.25	-1.25
3	Huddersfield Town		42.75	10.25
4	Peterborough United	49.00	4.00
5	Milton Keynes Dons		37.25	15.75
6	Bournemouth		40.33	12.67
7	Leyton Orient		42.83	10.17
8	Exeter City		32.50	20.50
9	Rochdale			38.67	14.33
10	Colchester United		29.33	23.67
11	Brentford			25.25	27.75
12	Carlisle United		28.25	24.75
13	Charlton Athletic		39.92	13.08
14	Yeovil Town		32.67	20.33
15	Sheffield Wednesday	29.25	23.75
16	Hartlepool United		32.25	20.75
17	Tranmere Rovers		34.50	18.50
18	Oldham Athletic		33.00	20.00
19	Notts County		29.92	23.08
20	Walsall			29.25	23.75
21	Dagenham & Redbridge	37.33	15.67
22	Bristol Rovers		27.67	25.33
23	Plymouth Argyle		40.00	13.00
24	Swindon Town		20.33	32.67

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Simple fact is average 2 points a game and you're up and we're ahead of schedule

 

[super_pig]

home games can be a curse in a run in because of the extra pressure created by the fans.. so all this crowing about home games by the s6masseeeve isn't what it is cracked up to be.. and anyway who cares .. we're murdering teams home, away or on the moon.. my only worry is that DW will bring monty back for 'defensive duties'.. then it will fall apart

 

[Cool Clint]

.. my only worry is that DW will bring monty back for 'defensive duties'.. then it will fall apart

Don't panic Mr Mainwaring

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

home games can be a curse in a run in because of the extra pressure created by the fans.. so all this crowing about home games by the s6masseeeve isn't what it is cracked up to be.. and anyway who cares .. we're murdering teams home, away or on the moon.. my only worry is that DW will bring monty back for 'defensive duties'.. then it will fall apart

Monty will be off I reckon, too many Chumpionship clubs alledgedly showing interest for it not to happen this time.

 

[Selly]

	Team		Projected Points
1	Charlton		104.84
2	Sheffield Utd	92.82
-----------------------------------------------------------		
3	Sheffield Wed	90.97
4	Huddersfield	88.46
5	MK Dons		88.17
6	Carlisle		75.63
-----------------------------------------------------------

See, what I find interesting here is, if these projections end up being accurate (which is a massive IF) then the Pigs, 'Udders and McDons can see themselves as exceptionally unlucky. in the last 10 years the highest number of points that a 3rd places team have got is 87 (twice). Generaly if you get over 87 points you go up, potentially not this year...

 

[norfolkblade]

home games can be a curse in a run in because of the extra pressure created by the fans.. so all this crowing about home games by the s6masseeeve isn't what it is cracked up to be.. and anyway who cares .. we're murdering teams home, away or on the moon.. my only worry is that DW will bring monty back for 'defensive duties'.. then it will fall apart

I don't know, Monty isn't getting a sniff at the mo and we are playing some of the best football I've ever seen us play, provided Doyle/KMac don't get injured I can see that being the partnership for the rest of the season, if it aint broke, don't fix it!

 

[2ndtenorblade]

See, what I find interesting here is, if these projections end up being accurate (which is a massive IF) then the Pigs, 'Udders and McDons can see themselves as exceptionally unlucky. in the last 10 years the highest number of points that a 3rd places team have got is 87 (twice). Generaly if you get over 87 points you go up, potentially not this year...

So if we win just 13 of our remaining 26 games we get to 92 points, sounds too easy for me. Is there a flaw in my arithmatic?

 

[Robbie]

So if we win just 13 of our remaining 26 games we get to 92 points, sounds too easy for me. Is there a flaw in my arithmatic?

Yes.... we only have 20 games remaining

 

[2ndtenorblade]

Yes.... we only have 20 games remaining

Thanks for that, it just did not look right but did not spot my error. Still, on current form we should get 92 at least.

 

[Highbury_Blade]

Monty will be off I reckon, too many Chumpionship clubs alledgedly showing interest for it not to happen this time.

I think we're now in a place where we din't need him anymore either

 

[norfolkblade]

I looked at the remaining fixtures earlier and we should bank at least another 40 points IMO, that'll take us to 93 and that, you would hope, will be enough for automatic.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

I think we're now in a place where we din't need him anymore either

Without wanting to dig up the old Monty debate, I always said there was a need for a Monty type but that there we're other people out there. Doyle has done 'his' job this season and seems to fit better into the style we're now playing. I don't think it's a coincidence that we've sent McAllister out for a month to keep him ticking over either.

---------- Post added at 01:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:09 PM ----------

I looked at the remaining fixtures earlier and we should bank at least another 40 points IMO, that'll take us to 93 and that, you would hope, will be enough for automatic.

We're bound to lose the odd game along the way, the good thing is, after the Wendy game (where you'd hope that we'll be around mid 60s points wise), there's still 42 points to play for with only MK Dons to play of the likely top 3rd of the League. The top five will all still think they can get around the 92 mark at this stage and I can see it happening.

 

[broomhillblade]

It all looks too easy.

A lot can happen between now and the end of the season.

"We're doomed....."

 

[super_pig]

>if it aint broke, don't fix it!
you'd like to think so.. i reckon we should pick the same team and go out and hammer them.. the result at the lane totally flattered them.. the football gods will make sure that parity is restored

 

[Cool Clint]

How strange to be paniking with excitement.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

What happened to Wycombe's points?

 

[Selly]

What happened to Wycombe's points?

Missed a TAB space, and now cant edit it for some reason...