Fink Tank in today's Times

[Hague Blade]

The Times runs a column based on football statistics every Saturday. Today's covers the chances of teams to get automatic/make the play offs. It's based on analysis of past fixtures and a Monte Carlo simulation (whoever said stats and advanced maths take the fun out of football ?) but the mighty Blades do at least get a mention.

According to Lord Finkelstein and his team of "boffins" we have a two per cent chance of making the play-offs and also a two per cent chance of going up. I don't want to kill the dream, and it's been fabulous to see the optimism return to this board as Cloughie and the team have turned things around, but I reckon that's about right - a slim chance, but it's not yet down to zero: like another set of fans have started putting on their banners, come on United - make us dream!

UTB.

 

[SwissBlade]

Sheffield United - defying statistics since 1889

 

[Dkc]

A completely unscientific guess, but based on current form I'd give us a 1 in 4 chance of making the play offs and a similar chance of beating Hull

 

[kingston RAWW]

A win today makes it 4 points behind. That would make it about a 40% (I'm my view, not based on science) chance by 5pm.

 

[moDtheGod]

Sounds about right to me. But you're not allowed to say it or people get funny with you.

 

[cooperblade]

According to Lord Finkelstein and his team of "boffins" we have a two per cent chance of making the play-offs and also a two per cent chance of going up.

I bet they wouldn't lay 49/1 on us making the play-offs though!

If the chances of us going up are the same as the chances of us finishing in the play-offs, does that mean we're a cert to win them?

 

[JohnDenver]

we have a two per cent chance of making the play-offs and also a two per cent chance of going up.

I can't decide how to interpret this. It's either..

We make the playoffs (a 2% chance) and then we're inevitably getting promoted.

Or

We make the playoffs (a 2% chance) then there's another 2% chance of actually winning them. Meaning a 0.04% chance of promotion from here.

I suspect the latter.

 

[SwissBlade]

If we win today we'll win the play offs and lift the FA cup...

Just not necessarily this season

 

[Rollerball]

2% what utter bollox, does that factor in posh or other teams bottling it, or team spirit being high/low, does it factor in teams losing when statistically they should win?
I'd say ATM we have around a 1 in 5 or 20% chance of playoffs, then if we get that at least a 25% or 1 in 4 of promotion.
As said above find me a bookie giving 49-1 odds of us not reaching play offs and ill snatch his hand off as I think most pro gamblers would, out side bet for sure but given recent form and results is there anyone totally writing off the blades right now?
Btw anyone got the actual odds, best odds for blades making playoffs and worst?
Just curious as to if bookies agree with this huge pile of donkey droppings.
#daretobelieve

 

[moDtheGod]

Btw anyone got the actual odds, best odds for blades making playoffs and worst?

We are a best price of 11/2 (6.50) to make the play-offs and are as short as 4/1 (5.00).

We are a best price of 17/1 (17.00) to win them/promotion and are as short as 10/1 (11.00).

This is largely irrelevant though - show me a bookmaker whose odds reflect the true chance of anything happening, and I will show you a dreadful business person.

 

[vorpal blade]

Finkelstein gets my respect as I made £80 based on his predictions one day a few years ago. I thought he only based his predictions on average goals per game scored either home or away for the 2 teams in a game.

So I don't think he bears in mind, 'bottling' or even a skewed probability because a team have a complete renaissance like we have.

But I wouldn't put my house on it, even if I had one.

 

[cooperblade]

We are a best price of 11/2 (6.50) to make the play-offs and are as short as 4/1 (5.00).

We are a best price of 17/1 (17.00) to win them/promotion and are as short as 10/1 (11.00).

This is largely irrelevant though - show me a bookmaker whose odds reflect the true chance of anything happening, and I will show you a dreadful business person.

Show me a bookmaker offering 4/1 about a 49/1 shot and I'll show you one who isn't taking many bets.

They'll probably have a red sign above the door.

 

[Darren]

We are a best price of 11/2 (6.50) to make the play-offs and are as short as 4/1 (5.00).

We are a best price of 17/1 (17.00) to win them/promotion and are as short as 10/1 (11.00).

This is largely irrelevant though - show me a bookmaker whose odds reflect the true chance of anything happening, and I will show you a dreadful business person.

So bookies essentially make their profits on the basis of people's ignorance/ irrational optimism? Obviously, bookies will set odds at levels that will give them the maximum profit. If people only bet on the basis of the real odds, they wouldn't get any bets at 11/2 or 4-1. It seems people do bet on the basis of hunches and ideas of luck which are, essentially, bollocks.

 

[Sirius]

We are a best price of 11/2 (6.50) to make the play-offs and are as short as 4/1 (5.00).

We are a best price of 17/1 (17.00) to win them/promotion and are as short as 10/1 (11.00).

This is largely irrelevant though - show me a bookmaker whose odds reflect the true chance of anything happening, and I will show you a dreadful business person.

And I will show you a bookie riding a bike

 

[blade too long]

statistics say your chances of winning the lottery are slim , but I have £3.60 in my lotto account I didnt have on Friday woo hoo
stick it to the man

 

[Wapping Blade]

So bookies essentially make their profits on the basis of people's ignorance/ irrational optimism? Obviously, bookies will set odds at levels that will give them the maximum profit. If people only bet on the basis of the real odds, they wouldn't get any bets at 11/2 or 4-1. It seems people do bet on the basis of hunches and ideas of luck which are, essentially, bollocks.

Yes, some punters try and spot "value" bets where they reckon the bookies have got the odds wrong.

 

[travellingblade]

Like we had a less than 2% chance of reaching the FA Cup semifinals, five FA Cup rounds ago.

 

[Darren]

Yes, some punters try and spot "value" bets where they reckon the bookies have got the odds wrong.

But surely the point is that most of the time bookies will set odds that are poor value for punters rather than good value. If they didn't do this, they wouldn't be in business very long.

And this relies on punters' irrational optimism. Prior to the defeat yesterday, our chances of getting into the play offs, rationally assessed were probably no more than 5-10%. However, we have had a run of good results and the natural human tendency to optimism means than United supporters (who will make up the vast majority of people who bet on this ) think that the run will continue and we will make the play offs. Hence they are willing to bet on it at appallingly stingy odds. Hence the bookies end up laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[Wapping Blade]

But surely the point is that most of the time bookies will set odds that are poor value for punters rather than good value. If they didn't do this, they wouldn't be in business very long.

And this relies on punters' irrational optimism. Prior to the defeat yesterday, our chances of getting into the play offs, rationally assessed were probably no more than 5-10%. However, we have had a run of good results and the natural human tendency to optimism means than United supporters (who will make up the vast majority of people who bet on this ) think that the run will continue and we will make the play offs. Hence they are willing to bet on it at appallingly stingy odds. Hence the bookies end up laughing all the way to the bank.

Yes again, sorry I was rushing out earlier. The vast majority of punters accept the raw deal and have irrational optimism but bookies aren't 100% infallible and some punters try to spot where they make mistakes and go for this "value".