Sheffsteel
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- Joined
- Jul 18, 2015
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So on his model we should have win two fewer games Sunderland and Hull at a guess) and lost two more (Boro and Luton at a guess).
Infogol provide XG for every match, their data shows
Home fixtures
Sheff Utd 2.23 Millwall 1.34
Sheff Utd 2.05 Sunderland 0.23
Sheff Utd 3.92 Blackburn 0.11
Sheff Utd 2.19 Reading 0.10
Looking at the above ww clearly dominant based on chances and deserved to win all 4 and gain 12 points, that’s what we did.
Think it’s very impressive that in our last 3 home games Fodders has basically had nothing to do.
Away fixtures
SU 0.44 Watford 1.02
SU 0.58 Middlesbrough 1.82
SU 1.2 Luton 1.47
SU 0.58 Hull 1.69
SU 1.87 Swansea 1.73
SU 1.66 Preston 0.84
Looking at the above we should have lost to Boro so picked up an undeserved point.
and according to XG should have lost to Hull City, however I watched this game, we were clearly the superior team.
This match highlights the flaws of XG, almost all of the XG for Hull came from the double save in the 1st half.
Basically we’re probably 3 points better off then where we should be.
We drew with Boro when based on chances we deserved to lose
and we beat Swansea when based on chances we deserved to draw.