ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
(I deliberately left this post until tonight, after the Hatters and Smoggies games, so that I could put our result in full context).
Our games really are now “3-point Steps to Heaven” (apologies to Buddy Holly)! I thought that our game last night was a classic grind-it-out Championship match between two well-coached teams full of solid Championship players who mostly cancelled each other out. In classical form, however, the game was decided by some perfect vision and skill from the two really outstanding players on view – Iliman and McA. Patience, vision, calmness and control from both. Billy had a couple more unsuccessful efforts for his 250, and Jebbo missed the proverbial barn door – but we all went home happy.
Then tonight Eric’s Hatters not winning made it a good round of games for us. 2 more points from 4 games – or 3 points in a ridiculous set of results - now gets us over the line.
So what does the overall situation look like after all that?
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 42 games, on 82 points we are now 3 points ahead of our 79 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19 and exactly the same as Warnock’s 82 points from 42 games in 05/06.
So this still continues to match our best Championship season for over 20 years.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 82 points we are now still exactly the same as my Autos Certain line. This line was for a set of results, that I produced at the start of the season, which would achieve 90 points and almost certain automatics. Anyway, we needn’t worry our little heads about 90 points now – as I will talk about below. 84 points will almost definitely be enough, with our better goal difference than Luton and, in any case, 85 is a mathematical certainty.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and a great improvement. A 7-point gap over the Mad Hatters and 8 points over Boro, with a game in hand on both - and the number of games remaining is steadily evaporating for those in our rear-view mirror.
League Table:
So no run-in table needed any more, as the situation is crystal clear. 2 points will mathematically beat Teesside Town and 3 points will mathematically beat the Hatters. However, with our 12 better goal difference than Luton’s I refuse to believe that they can credibly close that, and so I am calling it now – 2 points from our last 4 games and we are up – irrespective of Boro and Luton‘s last 3 results! I have said for the last 3 or 4 weeks that I thought 84 would be enough - now I'm 99.9% certain.
On the other hand, if they draw on Monday night, 82 is almost certainly enough - and it's game over – we win!!
I’m really looking forward to spending a King’s Ransom on Bombardier in the Green Man and Hazy Session IPA in the Stadium on Saturday, particularly now that we know that Haaland is locked up and drugged in Steven’s garage!
The Tale of Two City’s is now told – just one City left to conquer this week!
UTB & Slava Ukraini
Our games really are now “3-point Steps to Heaven” (apologies to Buddy Holly)! I thought that our game last night was a classic grind-it-out Championship match between two well-coached teams full of solid Championship players who mostly cancelled each other out. In classical form, however, the game was decided by some perfect vision and skill from the two really outstanding players on view – Iliman and McA. Patience, vision, calmness and control from both. Billy had a couple more unsuccessful efforts for his 250, and Jebbo missed the proverbial barn door – but we all went home happy.
Then tonight Eric’s Hatters not winning made it a good round of games for us. 2 more points from 4 games – or 3 points in a ridiculous set of results - now gets us over the line.
So what does the overall situation look like after all that?
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 42 games, on 82 points we are now 3 points ahead of our 79 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19 and exactly the same as Warnock’s 82 points from 42 games in 05/06.
So this still continues to match our best Championship season for over 20 years.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 82 points we are now still exactly the same as my Autos Certain line. This line was for a set of results, that I produced at the start of the season, which would achieve 90 points and almost certain automatics. Anyway, we needn’t worry our little heads about 90 points now – as I will talk about below. 84 points will almost definitely be enough, with our better goal difference than Luton and, in any case, 85 is a mathematical certainty.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and a great improvement. A 7-point gap over the Mad Hatters and 8 points over Boro, with a game in hand on both - and the number of games remaining is steadily evaporating for those in our rear-view mirror.
League Table:
So no run-in table needed any more, as the situation is crystal clear. 2 points will mathematically beat Teesside Town and 3 points will mathematically beat the Hatters. However, with our 12 better goal difference than Luton’s I refuse to believe that they can credibly close that, and so I am calling it now – 2 points from our last 4 games and we are up – irrespective of Boro and Luton‘s last 3 results! I have said for the last 3 or 4 weeks that I thought 84 would be enough - now I'm 99.9% certain.
On the other hand, if they draw on Monday night, 82 is almost certainly enough - and it's game over – we win!!
I’m really looking forward to spending a King’s Ransom on Bombardier in the Green Man and Hazy Session IPA in the Stadium on Saturday, particularly now that we know that Haaland is locked up and drugged in Steven’s garage!
The Tale of Two City’s is now told – just one City left to conquer this week!
UTB & Slava Ukraini
