Conclusive Proof sacking the manager works

[Davie Blade]

...........But only one once a season, please.
(and you're in the relegation zone)

The alternative thread title is
1. Any Muppet keeps you up
2. How the League got so compressed this season.

Or 3, the full answer to
http://www.s24su.com/forum/index.php?threads/if-we-dont-do-it-this-year.39766/#post-757465

The table below shows the number of clubs who have sacked their manager this season.

Of these no less than 5 (Colchester, Port Vale, Scunthorpe, Gillingham, and Coventry) were in a relegation spot and climbed to safety.
Barnsley and Peterborough's sackings turned a dodgy 17th and 15th spot into a very credible climb to 11th and 9th respectively..

Yeovil and Orient both pulled the trigger twice and have paid the price with relegation.

Another relegated side, Crawley didn't sack their manager as John Gregory needed heart surgery
They bizarrely employed Dean Saunders; a manager with a proven track record for practically nothing, but taking clubs down again and again

Notts County who pulled the trigger when they were 20th are the only club to turn a 'safe' position into a relegation one.

So my conclusion is
Obviously someone has to go down but it is an interesting comparison, non the less.
I was amazed that a figures as high as 7 manager,s had all steered their clubs to safety.

It maybe puts into perspective how easy it is to improve a clubs fortunes in League one, if you're down the wrong end..

 

[Bladesway]

Sorry but it's not a full answer to anything. We have managed to invent new ways of utterly crapping up the play offs so I would guess we could be the exception the rule needs. We usually are.

 

[sitwell]

...........But only one once a season, please.
(and you're in the relegation zone)

The alternative thread title is
1. Any Muppet keeps you up
2. How the League got so compressed this season.

Or 3, the full answer to
http://www.s24su.com/forum/index.php?threads/if-we-dont-do-it-this-year.39766/#post-757465

The table below shows the number of clubs who have sacked their manager this season.

Of these no less than 5 (Colchester, Port Vale, Scunthorpe, Gillingham, and Coventry) were in a relegation spot and climbed to safety.
Barnsley and Peterborough's sackings turned a dodgy 17th and 15th spot into a very credible climb to 11th and 9th respectively..

Yeovil and Orient both pulled the trigger twice and have paid the price with relegation.

Another relegated side, Crawley didn't sack their manager as John Gregory needed heart surgery
They bizarrely employed Dean Saunders; a manager with a proven track record for practically nothing, but taking clubs down again and again

Notts County who pulled the trigger when they were 20th are the only club to turn a 'safe' position into a relegation one.

So my conclusion is
Obviously someone has to go down but it is an interesting comparison, non the less.
I was amazed that a figures as high as 7 manager,s had all steered their clubs to safety.

It maybe puts into perspective how easy it is to improve a clubs fortunes in League one, if you're down the wrong end..

View attachment 11625

Proves that only 4 can go down for god sake ,virtually the whole of the bottom half of the table sacked or changed manager and the top half didn't. Totally makes a mockery of the whole point you are trying to make in your continuing sad attack against Clough. All 3 of the relegated teams from the Championship did the same.

 

[itsinyerblood]

Sorry but it's not a full answer to anything. We have managed to invent new ways of utterly crapping up the play offs so I would guess we could be the exception the rule needs. We usually are.

Correct Bladesway.

It's not unusual for any poster, let alone one with a transparently negative agenda, to pick selective facts, string them together as if that makes everything alright, and then claim it's conclusive and needs acting upon.

Your explanation offers a far greater insight into what might or might not cause us to fail at the last hurdle, rather than a limited two year appraisal that dresses itself up as conclusive. It's not, never has been, and should be treated with the lack of seriousness it deserves.

 

[TarquinDelouche]

Conclusive proof that some people's monomania will drive them to clutch at ever more desperate looking straws.

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

...........But only one once a season, please.
(and you're in the relegation zone)

The alternative thread title is
1. Any Muppet keeps you up
2. How the League got so compressed this season.

Or 3, the full answer to
http://www.s24su.com/forum/index.php?threads/if-we-dont-do-it-this-year.39766/#post-757465

The table below shows the number of clubs who have sacked their manager this season.

Of these no less than 5 (Colchester, Port Vale, Scunthorpe, Gillingham, and Coventry) were in a relegation spot and climbed to safety.
Barnsley and Peterborough's sackings turned a dodgy 17th and 15th spot into a very credible climb to 11th and 9th respectively..

Yeovil and Orient both pulled the trigger twice and have paid the price with relegation.

Another relegated side, Crawley didn't sack their manager as John Gregory needed heart surgery
They bizarrely employed Dean Saunders; a manager with a proven track record for practically nothing, but taking clubs down again and again

Notts County who pulled the trigger when they were 20th are the only club to turn a 'safe' position into a relegation one.

So my conclusion is
Obviously someone has to go down but it is an interesting comparison, non the less.
I was amazed that a figures as high as 7 manager,s had all steered their clubs to safety.

It maybe puts into perspective how easy it is to improve a clubs fortunes in League one, if you're down the wrong end..

View attachment 11625

Interesting, but without a much wider context I can't see it's evidence of much, and it's not proof of anything.

A few hastily assembled thoughts:

1. Who's to say that if they'd've kept their manager they might've done even better - unlikely but unknowable. In a parallel universe featured on Dr Who next week we gelled under Weir and romped away with Division 3 this year. (Instead of Weir being in a play-off for Division 1 with a team in red and white stripes. )
2. Impressing the new manager motivates players, it's a short term gain. How will these clubs and managers fare in the long term? The players get demotivated, the team drops into relegation, so you sack the manager in the middle of every season? It might work but is it any way to run a club?
3. Yeovil and Orient sacked the manager twice then went down - there's no evidence one caused the other - fwiw this is known as the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy and can also be applied - amongst other things - to 1
   
4. All of this is about avoiding relegation, if we go up it might have more relevance to us next year
5. The youth development policy is in ruins, more generally throughout the club nobody knows where they stand.

Instinctively it makes sense that 2. is the most relevant to securing status but there are many other factors governing whether it's the right decision or not.

If everyone joins the circus and sacks the manager, then the down side is the same for everyone and (relative to other teams) matters less.

 

[Bladebri]

When NC took on this job he would have told the board it will be a 3 season plan, last half of his first stint went very well, second stint up to date has been way ward to say the least, I am backing him on his 3rd stint, he will have learned his mistakes, the board will give him 100% for next season even if we don't get up through the playoffs.

 

[alcoblade]

It's not quite the nonsense people are making out. It's clear that struggling clubs are more likely to sack their manager. You can't then take anything from the start position at the time of the sacking.

The point is surely the relative uptick in fortune (or not) after the sacking.


It's clear that evidence can be found to back both sticking with a manager and sacking him. You'll find the backing for the answer you set out to look for.

The best method of making the right decision is to examine exactly what's playing out in front of you.

UTB

 

[DI36O]

Likewise if every other team that entered the top 6 sacked their manager once in a season, the majority of them won't get promoted.

 

[Davie Blade]

Sorry but it's not a full answer to anything. We have managed to invent new ways of utterly crapping up the play offs so I would guess we could be the exception the rule needs. We usually are.

(and you're in the relegation zone)

Did you miss the point of the post.

 

[Going up]

How many have been successful after giving the manager time, rather than the usual sack?

How many, other than SUFC, that escaped the drop with the manager change, did better the following season? (Once the honeymoon wore off)

While we didn't quite hit the highs that we all hoped for, we have certainly consolidated under Nigel and got into the playoffs.

Just as the securing of a strike force was a priority this year, the securing of a strong CB, or two, will no doubt be Nigel's prime goal this closed season. If he could pull off a Buxton, or Barker deal, in addition to Harris, Freeman and the Beard, I believe that we would have the best defence in either League 1, or the Championship. Thus giving us a fabulous chance next season, whichever league we are in.

 

[sheffielder]

Really sorry, but when was the first time a 3 year plan to get out of this division first mentioned? Can anyone link me as its a mystery to me.

 

[Large Mendonca]

Apparently it takes 3 years for the concept of having central defenders in central defence to sink in. Have some patience goddammitt!!

 

[Bladesway]

Did you miss the point of the post.

Nope I didn't I was just making a point that no matter we would manage to be the exception that proves the rule.

 

[Dalelane01]

Managers are just like recycled rubbish only people. . We would only get someone that another club didnt want if we got a new manager. then they bring in players from there previous club just has clough did. we are not in a position to get a better manager as the good ones are looking for better jobs.so may as well stop with who we have got at least for another season.lessons will have been learnt this season and no doubt clough will have to explain himself to the board who will no doubt be asking the questions weve been asking all season and he will have to answer to them but all will be forgotten and forgiven if by some good fortune we are playing championship football next season.and then who knows clough might even getna better offer from another club

 

[Bladesman]

Haven't Watford had 4 managers this season and gone up as Champions? That's a bit of a fluke though.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

It's not quite the nonsense people are making out. It's clear that struggling clubs are more likely to sack their manager. You can't then take anything from the start position at the time of the sacking.

The point is surely the relative uptick in fortune (or not) after the sacking.


It's clear that evidence can be found to back both sticking with a manager and sacking him. You'll find the backing for the answer you set out to look for.

The best method of making the right decision is to examine exactly what's playing out in front of you.

UTB

There wil be evidence next season at Brentford whether you can improve by sacking a successful manager.

 

[Eskimo]

were you in charge of the election polls that confidently predicted a hung parliament??

 

[alcoblade]

There wil be evidence next season at Brentford whether you can improve by sacking a successful manager.

Which wil be interesting, but irrelevant to us.

Brentford trying to make it to the premiership is a wholly different measure to sheffield United escaping the third division.

And Warburton had had a promotion within the last decade.

UTB

 

[MobileBlade]

The most interesting stat of that lot is that of the 13 clubs in the list, 9 of them occupied the bottom 10 places (only Crewe in the bottom 10 did not change managers) and none of them finished higher than 9th - Peterborough who were barely out of the top half all season. None of the top 8 changed their manager.

 

[ScoobBlade]

Surely our last decade is as good an example as any that changing managers regularly doesn't work

 

[mattbianco1]

Changing managers is like having poppers... You get that initial buzz, it wears off too quickly and you think was it really worth it then you do it again and think it will be better next time and the same happens again.

 

[Deleted member 1486]

The graph in the post you link to actually disproves what you are saying (not reinforces it). It shows there is a regression to mean (following the dip in results which either resulted in a sacking, resignation or a team sticking by the manager) regardless of whether the team sacks the manager or not. It even shows (to a very small degree) that sacking the manager was the worst option of the 3 at the t+4 stage! There's a long article on it here if you're interested.

In the data you've chosen you are making the mistake of assuming the change of manager affected the result, rather than that he may have oversaw a period of regression to mean (in some cases the manager will have affected the results, in others he won't, averaged out, it should still look something like....)

 

[metalblade]

Really sorry, but when was the first time a 3 year plan to get out of this division first mentioned? Can anyone link me as its a mystery to me.

It must be a clapper thing, after every year of failure add two years to Clough's masterplan. You can then see the reason why he has had only one non league promotion in 18 years of management mediocrity.

 

[super_pig]

Ifwiw this is known as the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy and can also be applied - amongst other things - to 1

good work mate. .i had to google that
we didn't do latin at Rowlinson.. we did car theft.. and stuff like that