Compared with last season...

[MobileBlade]

Here are the league leaders comparables for previous years:



And for game 34:

 

[Selly]

Here are the league leaders comparables for previous years:

View attachment 23558

And for game 34:

View attachment 23559

We appear to be dropping below the average and median lines - I wonder where Scunthorpe and bolton are against the 2nd and 3rd placed median/averages

 

[MobileBlade]

We appear to be dropping below the average and median lines - I wonder where Scunthorpe and bolton are against the 2nd and 3rd placed median/averages

Will try and look at later in the week. Interesting is that on grafikhaus chart we are on exactly the same points at 2011-12, but we are actually 10 points behind where Charlton were at this stage.

 

[blade too long]

A few years ago, I interviewed a guy who did the actual timetables for network rail. We scheduled in 45 mins for the interviews. I asked him one question - tell me about your average day - one hour later I knew all about how they timetabled freight trains and I think many other things which I can no longer remember (nor could I remember within 30 seconds of him leaving the room). No further questions were asked. I slept very well that night. He didn't get the job.

did he arrive on a replacement bus service

 

[blade too long]

Will try and look at later in the week. Interesting is that on grafikhaus chart we are on exactly the same points at 2011-12, but we are actually 10 points behind where Charlton were at this stage.

thats ok
charlton are a lot further behind where charlton were

we can give that scare a miss

 

[Selly]

Will try and look at later in the week. Interesting is that on grafikhaus chart we are on exactly the same points at 2011-12, but we are actually 10 points behind where Charlton were at this stage.

1/3rd of games (33.8% to be precise) this season have ended in draws, and as draws tend to depress the overall points totals I wonder how this stacks up as a percentage against other years...

 

[Selly]

hmm, final draw proportion percentages for the last 5 seasons

25.0% 15-16
26.3% 14-15
25.7% 13-14
27.0% 12-13
29.9% 11-12

So 33.8% is a LOT more draws than usual...

 

[blade too long]

so over 10 years

3 have got 82 to 87 points to win it
4 have got 91 to 96
3 have got 99 to 103

only 1 scunny had below 65 at this stage and managed to get to 91 points

it offers the theory 91 points this season would win the title
so 8 wins and 2 draws should do the job

I think 86 could probably be the total needed though
ie 7 wins for us

 

[Balham]

View attachment 23563


so over 10 years

3 have got 82 to 87 points to win it
4 have got 91 to 96
3 have got 99 to 103

only 1 scunny had below 65 at this stage and managed to get to 91 points

it offers the theory 91 points this season would win the title
so 8 wins and 2 draws should do the job

I think 86 could probably be the total needed though
ie 7 wins for us

Not that simple though BTL. You're looking at the points the champions got, not the points they needed:



Over the past 10 years, the team in 2nd has averaged 88 points, meaning that to be sure of promotion you need, on average, 89 points. The fact that the champions have averaged 94 points is irrelevant. Only 4 sides have broken the 90 point barrier in finishing 2nd and the most any of those has got is 94 points (Brentford in 2013/14).

Playing the shorter game: on average to be sure of promotion you need 86 points with only one side finishing on 90 points in third (no prizes for guessing who that was). The gap between 2nd and 3rd is often closer than that between 1st and 2nd which suggests to me that one side normally canters away with it. Except for our schedule with the multiple postponements upcoming I can see no reason why this year that can't be us.

One final note: this will be a season at the lower end of the scale: to get to 94 points we need to win 9 and draw 2 of our remaining games. Doable...but tough.

 

[grafikhaus]

Very, very impressive Blades. On the home straight now.

 

[grafikhaus]

Here's another 'compared to last season'.

Last season, we totalled 66 points in the entire season. Yesterday - with 12 games left - we now have 68 points.

Last season, Billy got 21 League goals all season. Yesterday - with 12 games left - he notched up his 23rd League goal.

 

[Ricky]

Another stat which is worth posting, might as well put it here...


We've had more shots on target than any other team in the top 4 divisions (According to the Football on 5 show).


Also, Billy is the top scorer in all 4 divisions.

 

[grafikhaus]

Another stat which is worth posting, might as well put it here...


We've had more shots on target than any other team in the top 4 divisions (According to the Football on 5 show).


Also, Billy is the top scorer in all 4 divisions.

Must admit, I found this surprising. Yesterday, for example, we were dominant throughout the game but how many 'shots on target' did we have? 3? 4? Anyway I've found this site and it appears to be true.

 

[Maidenhead]

And the least shots on target against us so we defend as well as we attack

 

[Kenilworth]

And the least shots on target against us so we defend as well as we attack

By conceded quite a few of those chances against us as a proportion. Although fewer when Wright has played as the silly errors - that present an easy chance - are eradicated when he is marshalling the defence.

 

[Grappler]

Very, very impressive Blades. On the home straight now.

View attachment 23739

Very impressive indeed pal, I was thinking maybe the best home performance so far, we looked in control from start to finish.

Carruthers looks silky smooth on the ball, would maybe have liked to see O'Shea make a cameo, I am sure the lad has goals in him.

 

[ucandomagic]

Comparing to 2011/12 is quite interesting. We are 3 points ahead of where we were after 34 games then - and we ended with 90 points post Ched.

But -

- both Bolton and Scunny are still 1 point ahead of where the Pigs were then after the equivalent number of games and Fleetwood are level - and the Pigs got to 93 that year.

So, if 2 of those 3 went on a late run like the Pigs we would need 94 plus to go up auto.

Now I don't believe that will happen and I don't want to temper my current soaring levels of enthusiasm - but at this stage I did count my chickens in 2012.

So my chicken numbers are currently firmly unknown, I am just savouring our performance each week as a pleasure, and enjoying our league position as though it is much earlier in the season.

UTB

 

[Maidenhead]

Comparing to 2011/12 is quite interesting. We are 3 points ahead of where we were after 34 games then - and we ended with 90 points post Ched.

But -

- both Bolton and Scunny are still 1 point ahead of where the Pigs were then after the equivalent number of games and Fleetwood are level - and the Pigs got to 93 that year.

So, if 2 of those 3 went on a late run like the Pigs we would need 94 plus to go up auto.

Now I don't believe that will happen and I don't want to temper my current soaring levels of enthusiasm - but at this stage I did count my chickens in 2012.

So my chicken numbers are currently firmly unknown, I am just savouring our performance each week as a pleasure, and enjoying our league position as though it is much earlier in the season.

UTB

Almost impossible given that they all still have to play each other once.

 

[blade too long]

impressive being ahead of 2010 11 , even more so as Charlton are 20 points adrift of us this time

 

[blade too long]

Comparing to 2011/12 is quite interesting. We are 3 points ahead of where we were after 34 games then - and we ended with 90 points post Ched.

But -

- both Bolton and Scunny are still 1 point ahead of where the Pigs were then after the equivalent number of games and Fleetwood are level - and the Pigs got to 93 that year.

So, if 2 of those 3 went on a late run like the Pigs we would need 94 plus to go up auto.

Now I don't believe that will happen and I don't want to temper my current soaring levels of enthusiasm - but at this stage I did count my chickens in 2012.

So my chicken numbers are currently firmly unknown, I am just savouring our performance each week as a pleasure, and enjoying our league position as though it is much earlier in the season.

UTB

on current form scunny and bolton be lucky to get to 84 points
bolton not won away since end of november

we worry far too much
no other team is playing as well as we are

we should reach 92 to 96 points with the run in we have with how we are performing

yes its mathematically possible to be caught
but rotherham chances of staying up are purely mathematical

the 2 points per game we are achieving , cant see that faltering

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

on current form scunny and bolton be lucky to get to 84 points
bolton not won away since end of november

we worry far too much
no other team is playing as well as we are

we should reach 92 to 96 points with the run in we have with how we are performing

yes its mathematically possible to be caught
but rotherham chances of staying up are purely mathematical

the 2 points per game we are achieving , cant see that faltering

Chedgate, be here before

 

[blade too long]

Chedgate, be here before

so how many times has that happened in football history

theres no forecast of lightening

and that was unique
it destroyed the squad losing their mate to jail

killed the atmosphere

 

[Selly]

Updated table with added high/low postions (outlining the highest or lowest placed team that can can be caught/can catch the team in question) and a run in indicating H (green)/A (red):

 

[I should coco]

would maybe have liked to see O'Shea make a cameo, I am sure the lad has goals in him.

I was happy for Lavery-Pig* to come on and I thought he tried really hard for the 5 minutes he had, but I know what you mean with O'Shea. What a fantastic position to be in, with regard to subs. Last season we had no-one to come on and make a difference and now we have Carruthers, Lavrey, O'Shea and to a lesser extent, Done.

I am enjoying my footie at BDTBL moren than any season since Kendal and long may it last.



* The lad is working hard to run his trotters off and on course to become a proper Blade by the end of the season

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

Updated table with added high/low postions (outlining the highest or lowest placed team that can can be caught/can catch the team in question) and a run in indicating H (green)/A (red):

View attachment 23817

That chart looks fantastic SOB.
Do you run any courses on how to understand the f*****g thing

 

[Selly]

That chart looks fantastic SOB.
Do you run any courses on how to understand the f*****g thing

Afraid not, but I'll field any and all questions here...

 

[MobileBlade]

Comparing to 2011/12 is quite interesting. We are 3 points ahead of where we were after 34 games then - and we ended with 90 points post Ched.

But -

- both Bolton and Scunny are still 1 point ahead of where the Pigs were then after the equivalent number of games and Fleetwood are level - and the Pigs got to 93 that year.

So, if 2 of those 3 went on a late run like the Pigs we would need 94 plus to go up auto.

Now I don't believe that will happen and I don't want to temper my current soaring levels of enthusiasm - but at this stage I did count my chickens in 2012.

So my chicken numbers are currently firmly unknown, I am just savouring our performance each week as a pleasure, and enjoying our league position as though it is much earlier in the season.

UTB

The synopsis you state means both clubs getting 33 points from their last 13 games. Given that they all need to play each other it means they will need a full round robin of winning a game each and only dropping 3 other points from the other 11 games. That is not going to happen.

 

[MobileBlade]

Comparables for previous league winners:



And this is how each stood after 34 games:



I think the most remarkable stat is Wolves lost game 34 and then took 29 points from their last 11 games. Wednesday also got 29 points from their last 11 games (they actually got 32 from their last 12). Next best after that was Bristol City with 26 from their last 11. For all the talk about Barnsley's remarkable run last year, they actually took 19 points from their last 11 games. Their big run was post Christmas. Last years winners, though, was a very small points total.

With all this, I will still maintain my previous prediction. 23 more points will guarantee us the title. 19 points will be enough for promotion.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

That chart looks fantastic SOB.
Do you run any courses on how to understand the f*****g thing

It basically says Bolton can't afford a single loss, we can afford the one if all those around us keep winning.

 

[northsomersetblade]

That chart looks fantastic SOB.
Do you run any courses on how to understand the f*****g thing

I think I just read that we can still come 22nd and go down