BladesPod: Leeds, Brentford, Rotherham & David McGoldrick

[Beans]

Afternoon all,

Just published this - Blades Analytics and I picking through the bones of the last week's games, plus we had a long old chat about the enigma that is David McGoldrick and his missed chances, and some thoughts on the Championship so far. Here's some timestamps if you want to flick about:

• Leeds (02:09)
• Rotherham (18:00)
• Brentford (24:50)
• David McGoldrick (34:50)

Cheers as always for listening, and UTB!



https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/bladespod/id1309198119?mt=2

 

[LoughboroBlade]

Enjoyable review of a set of not-wholly-enjoyable results. On McGoldrick, obviously there isn’t a case for him to be switched to a Norwood/Coutts/Fleck type midfield role, but I do think there is a case for him to play the Duffy role either when Duffy is subbed, or when he’s injured/off-form. His attributes and ability to link play suggest he would be fine there, he would be less frequently in positions where he’d be relied upon to score. We scored 3 while he was playing behind Sharp & Clarke against Wigan.

 

[cooperblade]

Enjoyable review of a set of not-wholly-enjoyable results.

It does feel like a really disappointing set of results but if, beforehand, someone had said we'd beat Rotherham 3-1, lose 2-1 at Brentford and draw 1-1 with Leeds, I think I'd have been OK with that.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

It does feel like a really disappointing set of results but if, beforehand, someone had said we'd beat Rotherham 3-1, lose 2-1 at Brentford and draw 1-1 with Leeds, I think I'd have been OK with that.

I’d have been fine with that in August admittedly, but now that they’ve happened they were slightly disappointing overall in my view.

 

[Dnblade]

Cheers for this,i've downloaded it and will give it a listen at work on my way down to Bristol early tomorrow morning,instead of Talk Prem on the radio.

 

[Bergen Blade]

Enjoyable review of a set of not-wholly-enjoyable results. On McGoldrick, obviously there isn’t a case for him to be switched to a Norwood/Coutts/Fleck type midfield role, but I do think there is a case for him to play the Duffy role either when Duffy is subbed, or when he’s injured/off-form. His attributes and ability to link play suggest he would be fine there, he would be less frequently in positions where he’d be relied upon to score. We scored 3 while he was playing behind Sharp & Clarke against Wigan.

Maybe we need him as the link man if Duffy's out, either in his role (at home?) or as one of the forwards (away/tough home games?).

We tried starting without either at Nottingham Forest (Clarke/Sharp up front; Coutts/Norwood/Fleck in midfield), losing 0-1. Neither started vs Norwich at home (2-1), but McGoldrick had come on by the time we got the winner.

We haven't won the last five games they both started, though prior to that results were good.

Excellent podcast btw, some very interesting stuff.

 

[Rob86]

Like it chaps, got me through an hour at work today. Agreed with everything said. What does that term you use mean ? (e/g, a/g, or something along those lines) I took it to mean expected.

I’d be tempted to go McGoldrick, Sharp, Washington v West Brom to be honest. Think Duffy will be fine against Reading, so I’d keep him in for that. Maybe Washington and McGoldrick up front.

 

[Beans]

Like it chaps, got me through an hour at work today. Agreed with everything said. What does that term you use mean ? (e/g, a/g, or something along those lines) I took it to mean expected.

xG = Expected Goals - Blades Analytics wrote a good explanation for it here which uses some Blades examples to illustrate the point https://www.uptheblades.com/latest-articles/2018/8/22/explaining-expected-goals The short-hand for it is that it measures how "good" a chance was, by looking at the percentage of times similar chances have been scored in the past.

 

[I should coco]

Loved the technical stuff about McGoldrick and the fact he is 'not a striker'.

Another good one lads and thanks again.

 

[blade too long]

think mcgoldrick missed as many chances as Sharp missed in the leeds game and was definitely not to blame for the calamitous way we presented leeds the points
the one v rotherham hit a defender who just threw a block hoping to get in the wat , and had the luck with him

forwards miss chances, even the best

 

[LoughboroBlade]

think mcgoldrick missed as many chances as Sharp missed in the leeds game

I can think of two chances McGoldrick had, to Sharp’s one. One that came to McGoldrick first half around the penalty area that he got badly wrong and hit way over the bar, and the chance he should really score second half. Sharp had a terrible header first half that he should score from and failed to even hit the target – I don’t think he had another effort of note all game. I would argue that McGoldrick’s effort 2nd half is as bad as the Sharp header though despite getting it on target. It might actually be worse, given he had control of the ball and a decent amount of time and space to aim at.

 

[Beans]

think mcgoldrick missed as many chances as Sharp missed in the leeds game and was definitely not to blame for the calamitous way we presented leeds the points
the one v rotherham hit a defender who just threw a block hoping to get in the wat , and had the luck with him

forwards miss chances, even the best

Yeah that's kind of what I was saying - it's mad that his chances at Brentford and Rotherham didn't end up in goals, and if even 1 of them had then we probably wouldn't even be having this conversation. Proper fine margins, if his shots are a few inches in any other direction they'd have gone in.

As Jay said on the pod though, unless he does stick these away then he might find himself out of the team, even with the non-scoring benefits he brings to us. Plus, he is statistically bad at finishing so far this season, although a large part of that is skewed by his last 3-4 games.

And yup, all the best strikers miss chances - I think Salah missed the highest number of "big chances" in the Prem last season, but not many would say he was bad at finishing. Half the skill is being in position to get those chances. The other thing McGoldrick adds is an ability to create shots for himself (he had one from long range against Leeds which the keeper saved), which not many of our other forward options does.

 

[TJ blade]

Maybe we need him as the link man if Duffy's out, either in his role (at home?) or as one of the forwards (away/tough home games?).

We tried starting without either at Nottingham Forest (Clarke/Sharp up front; Coutts/Norwood/Fleck in midfield), losing 0-1. Neither started vs Norwich at home (2-1), but McGoldrick had come on by the time we got the winner.

We haven't won the last five games they both started, though prior to that results were good.

Excellent podcast btw, some very interesting stuff.

Superb podcast, can listen to you 2 all day. As for Mcgoldrick and his missed chances his nickname at Ipswich was Mcgoaldrought which probably tells us all we need to know about his striking capabilities. Good footballer though.

 

[Revolution]

Yeah that's kind of what I was saying - it's mad that his chances at Brentford and Rotherham didn't end up in goals, and if even 1 of them had then we probably wouldn't even be having this conversation. Proper fine margins, if his shots are a few inches in any other direction they'd have gone in.

As Jay said on the pod though, unless he does stick these away then he might find himself out of the team, even with the non-scoring benefits he brings to us. Plus, he is statistically bad at finishing so far this season, although a large part of that is skewed by his last 3-4 games.

And yup, all the best strikers miss chances - I think Salah missed the highest number of "big chances" in the Prem last season, but not many would say he was bad at finishing. Half the skill is being in position to get those chances. The other thing McGoldrick adds is an ability to create shots for himself (he had one from long range against Leeds which the keeper saved), which not many of our other forward options does.

McGoldrick may create shots for himself but hasn't actually scored one. Both of his open play goals have been from less than a yard from cut backs.

Didn't you say his individual expected goals was the worst in the division?

I am starting to become concerned that the attractive aesthetic nature of his play masks ineffectiveness.

I can see a strong case for not starting him at Reading.

 

[Dnblade]

I can think of two chances McGoldrick had, to Sharp’s one. One that came to McGoldrick first half around the penalty area that he got badly wrong and hit way over the bar, and the chance he should really score second half. Sharp had a terrible header first half that he should score from and failed to even hit the target – I don’t think he had another effort of note all game. I would argue that McGoldrick’s effort 2nd half is as bad as the Sharp header though despite getting it on target. It might actually be worse, given he had control of the ball and a decent amount of time and space to aim at.

There was this one first half aswell,received the ball from Sharp on the left wing,he came inside and curled it well wide.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

There was this one first half aswell,received the ball from Sharp on the left wing,he came inside and curled it well wide.
View attachment 46614 View attachment 46615

I didn’t consider that a significant chance to be honest. Outside the box, tricky angle, hardly one he’d be expected to score from in contrast to the others where there was a clear sight on goal.

 

[BushBlade]

There was this one first half aswell,received the ball from Sharp on the left wing,he came inside and curled it well wide.
View attachment 46614 View attachment 46615

It’s a half chance really. What I noticed in the two photos is that there are only two in the box in both photos and neither are looking to get on the ball. Who’s making the third man run and where are they? There’s seven Leeds players in that photo, what were our lot doing?

 

[Dnblade]

I didn’t consider that a significant chance to be honest. Outside the box, tricky angle, hardly one he’d be expected to score from in contrast to the others where there was a clear sight on goal.

Yeah i know what you mean,difficult chance but i think he needs to at least geiting it on target...I think he was trying to curl it in the far corner.
He does bring more than just goals to be fair.

It’s a half chance really. What I noticed in the two photos is that there are only two in the box in both photos and neither are looking to get on the ball. Who’s making the third man run and where are they? There’s seven Leeds players in that photo, what were our lot doing?

Fleck does initially point for him to play it into the space,but doesn't make the run,probably realising he was going to shoot...Enda is the player to the left,Billy is out of picture on the left wing after giving McG the ball.

 

[BushBlade]

Yeah i know what you mean,difficult chance but i think he needs to at least geiting it on target...I think he was trying to curl it in the far corner.
He does bring more than just goals to be fair.


Fleck does initially point for him to play it into the space,but doesn't make the run,probably realising he was going to shoot...Enda is the player to the left,Billy is out of picture on the left wing after giving McG the ball.

Cheers, I’m posting from my phone so wasn’t sure who was who. Stevens just doesn’t want it, or hasn’t got the instinct to make a run.

That’s why he should be crossing and Billy getting into the box. This is the downside of our ‘total football’ approach. And where’s Duffy?

I know it’s only a snapshot but, IMO, it shows where we struggle. Teams with better individual players would have turned that into a proper opportunity, despite being outnumbered. We seem to have to wait until we’ve got most of our players into the box before we deliver it, and still manage to miss our players most of the time.

It’s not a criticism, I understand why we play like we do and I don’t think we should try to make drastic changes, it’s just frustrating at times.

 

[Dnblade]

Cheers, I’m posting from my phone so wasn’t sure who was who. Stevens just doesn’t want it, or hasn’t got the instinct to make a run.

That’s why he should be crossing and Billy getting into the box. This is the downside of our ‘total football’ approach. And where’s Duffy?

I know it’s only a snapshot but, IMO, it shows where we struggle. Teams with better individual players would have turned that into a proper opportunity, despite being outnumbered. We seem to have to wait until we’ve got most of our players into the box before we deliver it, and still manage to miss our players most of the time.

It’s not a criticism, I understand why we play like we do and I don’t think we should try to make drastic changes, it’s just frustrating at times.

Yeah i'm on my phone...it came from a throw down the line originally..Billy pulled wide and laid it back to McG...difficult chance,but that kid Wilson at Derby who keeps banging them in from 20 yards would have probably scored.

 

[BushBlade]

Yeah i'm on my phone...it came from a throw down the line originally..Billy pulled wide and laid it back to McG...difficult chance,but that kid Wilson at Derby who keeps banging them in from 20 yards would have probably scored.

Too right. I’d have buried it tbf

 

[Beans]

McGoldrick may create shots for himself but hasn't actually scored one. Both of his open play goals have been from less than a yard from cut backs.

Didn't you say his individual expected goals was the worst in the division?

His actual expected goals total is very high (I think the highest in the division). However the difference between that and his actual goals is one of the largest. He is getting in the right positions / creating good shots for himself, but just not scoring them at the moment. The first part of that is good, the second part is bad (duh). Thing is, if you keep doing enough of the first part then in all likelihood the second part goes away. I'd much rather have us missing chances than not getting chances at all.

(and I'd much much rather that every shot we take hits the net)

 

[ucandomagic]

Goldie’s misses against Rotherham and Brentford, and to an extent the pen miss against Wendy, probably would have gone in if he struck the ball as hard as Billy does. Goldie only ever strokes it - maybe as Jay said because of previous injuries.

For the Rotherham block on the line, the defender had time to lift his foot slightly, Against Brentford a smashed shot may well have gone in off the keeper, and I don’t think there would have been time to get down and across to a harder struck pen in that bottom corner.

Top strikers like Billy, Shearer, Kane, Defoe, Hasselbaink etc always hit the ball hard - but that can be dangerous for elderly dodgy knee ligaments!

Sadly, magic generally fades with age!

 

[Bergen Blade]

Is it always a good thing for a team to have relatively few efforts on goal, while the chances they do get are very big (meaning we get a high xG)?

Is there an argument for players/strikers sometimes needing some finishes (unsuccsessful, but getting closer and closer) before being able to convert a big one? I.e a player who's barely had a sniff ay goal may not always be mentally as prepared/confident/determined to take that elusive, but huge, chance?

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

McGoldrick has struggled in front of goal all his career.

He's not just suddenly going to get better at finishing at the age of 31.

 

[Revolution]

His actual expected goals total is very high (I think the highest in the division). However the difference between that and his actual goals is one of the largest. He is getting in the right positions / creating good shots for himself, but just not scoring them at the moment. The first part of that is good, the second part is bad (duh). Thing is, if you keep doing enough of the first part then in all likelihood the second part goes away. I'd much rather have us missing chances than not getting chances at all.

(and I'd much much rather that every shot we take hits the net)

Yes, sorry, the big disparity is what I had in mind.

I'm not sure what you say about things regressing to the mean for him is right. If he doesn't hit the ball very hard - and he doesn't, as others point out - he's got a problem that might be difficult to cure. i also don't think much of the way he aims for goal. A lot goes wide. We will see, but at present we need more end product from him in terms of goals and assists than he is delivering.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Just catching back up on the ones of these I’ve seemingly missed. Really enjoyable stuff and some fascinating content.

Surely due another after our recent Christmas run?

Cheers as ever boys.

 

[Wapping Blade]

Yep Beans and Blades Analytics - Get off Twitter and get that podcast made

 

[Beans]

Just catching back up on the ones of these I’ve seemingly missed. Really enjoyable stuff and some fascinating content.

Surely due another after our recent Christmas run?

Cheers as ever boys.

Hopefully recording the next one tomorrow! Cheers for listening.

 

[boo radley]

It is really goid to listen to this now to see what the thoughts were. Trouble is, if the next one is done I will have to listen to it fresh thus clouding the perspective that we all should have.