BladesPod: Kick it in the goal edition + reasons to be thankful

[Beans]

Afternoon all,

Roygbiv and I react to United's baffling inability to kick the ball in the goal in our latest defeat, the debut of Kean Bryan, and the general malaise. However, in the spirit of last week's Thanksgiving celebrations in the USA, I thought this would be a good point to look on the bright side - so the latter part of the podcast is devoted to things we are thankful for when it comes to the Blades.

Thank you, as always, for listening.



Plus on Apple and Spotify there.

 

[Bashamed]

Don't think I've missed a pod since I started listening to them after the villa away 3-3. Very nearly missed the post Millwall one but touched it out. This is going to be hard to stomach though

 

[Beans]

Don't think I've missed a pod since I started listening to them after the villa away 3-3. Very nearly missed the post Millwall one but touched it out. This is going to be hard to stomach though

If it helps, I think we've moved into a stage of "acceptance" so at least find these a bit easier to talk about in an engaged way rather than sounding like our metaphorical cat just got run over. Plus, there is some happier content towards the end!

 

[I should coco]

If it helps, I think we've moved into a stage of "acceptance" so at least find these a bit easier to talk about in an engaged way rather than sounding like our metaphorical cat just got run over.

It does help actually.

Some of the XG stats are amazing. I know some people will retort that 'the only stat that counts is the points column', but XG comes into its worth as a period lengthens to give a better average.

To say that our XG is ahead of Arsenal and S'oton is frankly incredible and shows how abysmally poor our finishing has been. It was also interesting to hear that Ramsdale's stats are far better than many on here think. As Roygbiv says, he's not even in our top 10 biggest problems.

Well done lads for keeping it going and I can promise there will be at least one sad twat always willing to listen.

 

[Houston_Blade]

You manage to sum up my feelings quite well. I get pissed off after I watch a game because before the game I allow myself a slight hope that we might turn the corner, we then proceed not to. As you say, WBA are shit so dominating them isn't like dominating a decent PL team.

You managed not to lay into McBurnie, I'm at the point where if he plays against Leicester and doesn't play well and score I will start saying that he's shit, at the moment he's still hanging onto based on the few headers he wins in our own box.

I haven't got any criticism for Ramsdale, he's playing behind a really poor defence and he's not and never will be Dean Henderson so our fans need to get over that fact.

Onto the next weekend where I'll try and occupy myself so I don't have to watch, then watch anyway and be incredulous at the end of the game because either we're shit or we played ok-ish and screwed up either going forwards, at the back or both.

On the question about would you take 30 points now, I would definitely. We're down and anything better than 11 is a bonus for me. Teams like us in the PL just don't go on the kind of run that we need to even have a fighting chance.

Oh and I'm 100% Wilder in. Just maybe don't play shite down the left hand side and we might not be embarrassed at the end of the season.

 

[JamesN]

Cheers again Beans and Roy. The pod is my post-match therapy at the moment. Much appreciate all the work you guys put into this.

I agree with your opinion that JOC will probably stay after coming back from injury (at first at least). I had the same thought myself, but your the first person I've heard say it. No one is going to be willing to take the risk on him until he's proven he's back to strength following his return.

 

[Wards]

It’s very difficult to digest those xG stats without coming to the very simple conclusion that we’re just fucking rubbish in front of goal. Not just the strikers either, it’s collectively gash.

 

[KiwiBlabe]

Great pod, harsh on Bryan though. He was much better than Robinson, Lowe and most of Enda this season. Not the answer long term, I agree.

Great point from Roy about seeing these players who have given us so many good times over the last 4 years start to wane a little.

UTB

 

[Beans]

It’s very difficult to digest those xG stats without coming to the very simple conclusion that we’re just fucking rubbish in front of goal. Not just the strikers either, it’s collectively gash.

As someone put it to me on Twitter, "we are all 2019/20 McGoldricks". There's a certain irony that he has found his shooting boots this season while the rest of the team has collectively papped itself in front of goal.

This is saying a similar thing to those xG stats but it really does tell a story...

 

[Roygbiv]

Great pod, harsh on Bryan though. He was much better than Robinson, Lowe and most of Enda this season. Not the answer long term, I agree.

Great point from Roy about seeing these players who have given us so many good times over the last 4 years start to wane a little.

UTB

I did say I didn't think Bryan was the worst player on the pitch and you are right that he wasn't any worse than the others we've had in that position. I just don't believe that a guy who wasn't deemed good enough to play a single league game in 4 years at the club is going to be the answer there.

 

[Selly]

I did say I didn't think Bryan was the worst player on the pitch and you are right that he wasn't any worse than the others we've had in that position. I just don't believe that a guy who wasn't deemed good enough to play a single league game in 4 years at the club is going to be the answer there.

I'm sure I read somewhere that Wilder had said Robinson not playing and Bryan playing instead was a tactical decision and not injury related.

In which case I find that completely baffling.

If we don`t plug that LCB gap early in January we are screwed (moreso than we already are)

It’s very difficult to digest those xG stats without coming to the very simple conclusion that we’re just fucking rubbish in front of goal. Not just the strikers either, it’s collectively gash.

Well quite - there's a few people (myself included) comforting themselves that it can`t continue and that eventually we are going to start scoring more than our xG in our games to "catch up" and regress to the mean.

Which we would I our strikers are "average" at finishing - I'm yet to see any evidence pointing to that...

 

[Beans]

I'm sure I read somewhere that Wilder had said Robinson not playing and Bryan playing instead was a tactical decision and not injury related.

In which case I find that completely baffling.

If we don`t plug that LCB gap early in January we are screwed (moreso than we already are)

Well quite - there's a few people (myself included) comforting themselves that it can`t continue and that eventually we are going to start scoring more than our xG in our games to "catch up" and regress to the mean.

Which we would I our strikers are "average" at finishing - I'm yet to see any evidence pointing to that...

They were close to average last season to be fair, with a bit of leeway either way on an individual basis (some slightly above, some slightly below - obviously McGoldrick was a massive underperformer). Sadly if we continue to defend like we are doing then it might not matter if/when our finishing does catch up to where it should be. It can happen, hell even Villa figured out how to defend post-lockdown last year.

 

[Houston_Blade]

It’s very difficult to digest those xG stats without coming to the very simple conclusion that we’re just fucking rubbish in front of goal. Not just the strikers either, it’s collectively gash.

I've tried looking at xG tables to give me a crumb of comfort. If you look at the below, last season we underperformed on xG for and massively overperformed on xG against. xPoints were 4.66 below where we ended up, so we'd still have ended up mid-table based on stats. Interestingly Newcastle would have been bottom and Watford mid-table.



This season we are 8 goals down on xG for and about right on Xg against, the net effect of those 8 goals would be 9 more points according to xPoints. We'd still be in between Brighton and Palace. I'm hoping for the 'these things even themselves out' excuse to start coming true soon and we'll be fine. I suspect though that with the forwards at our disposal we'll keep undershooting xG for all season.

 

[Beans]

I've tried looking at xG tables to give me a crumb of comfort. If you look at the below, last season we underperformed on xG for and massively overperformed on xG against. xPoints were 4.66 below where we ended up, so we'd still have ended up mid-table based on stats. Interestingly Newcastle would have been bottom and Watford mid-table.

View attachment 99413

This season we are 8 goals down on xG for and about right on Xg against, the net effect of those 8 goals would be 9 more points according to xPoints. We'd still be in between Brighton and Palace. I'm hoping for the 'these things even themselves out' excuse to start coming true soon and we'll be fine. I suspect though that with the forwards at our disposal we'll keep undershooting xG for all season.

View attachment 99410

Going down a rabbit hole here but I did mention on the pod that this game reminded me of Watford's start to last season - I looked it up and just on the numbers we're very close to their first 10 games where they were creating plenty of chances but couldn't finish for shit (xG of 12.5, scored 5, underperforming by 7.5 goals, by far the biggest underperformance in the league). We've created about the same but are underperforming by slightly more, and again are by far the biggest underperformers.

Watford kept underperforming through the season but at least got "less worse" at finishing, being 12 goals down at the end. And they almost stayed up despite some catastrophically terrible decision-making with their managers. I firmly believe they'd have stayed up if they'd just ridden out this poor start with Javi Gracia, trusted that their finishing would improve and that the defence would have done enough.

We not only have a better manager to begin with but are unlikely (I hope, sheesh) to go through a similar level of self-harm at boardroom level in the next 6 months.

I guess this is a long-winded way of saying that I'm not at all prepared to say "it's over" after 10 games, just that that is of course the most likely outcome at this stage. And, I'm going to need United to show me that we're suddenly going to get better at finishing and defending, before I'll believe that it'll happen.

 

[Roygbiv]

I'm sure I read somewhere that Wilder had said Robinson not playing and Bryan playing instead was a tactical decision and not injury related.

In which case I find that completely baffling.

If we don`t plug that LCB gap early in January we are screwed (moreso than we already are)

Well quite - there's a few people (myself included) comforting themselves that it can`t continue and that eventually we are going to start scoring more than our xG in our games to "catch up" and regress to the mean.

Which we would I our strikers are "average" at finishing - I'm yet to see any evidence pointing to that...

He said Robinson "hadn't done enough". Strange considering he's been in the squad every game this season and was then suddenly completely out of it when our we have so many injuries in his position.

 

[JPSharpy93]

Accepting we are going down is like accepting that the girl I fancy is out of my league. It ain’t happening, it hurts and I’m still going for it

 

[raul]

Not listened yet, but my xBxG (expectedBeansonexpectedGoals) is 4 minutes in.

 

[Houston_Blade]

He said Robinson "hadn't done enough". Strange considering he's been in the squad every game this season and was then suddenly completely out of it when our we have so many injuries in his position.

What does a centre half have to do in training? Getting out of bed and running a bit should be enough. Maybe it was lack of ‘aerial duels’ won or something?!

 

[MJM]

Thanks for helping me get through this year Beans Roygbiv

 

[Selly]

He said Robinson "hadn't done enough". Strange considering he's been in the squad every game this season and was then suddenly completely out of it when our we have so many injuries in his position.

Hadn't done enough when the bar is someone without a "proper" first team start in the last 3 years is saying something...

 

[Bashamed]

Great effort as always lads. Always feel better after. My wishful thinking for the weekend is maybe it's too obvious Vardy will score so maybe it won't happen. Bringing him in for fantasy football and will have money on him scoring anyway to try and confuse the footballing gods a bit.

 

[Crafty Blade]

Whether this side would be kept together following a relegation, and whether it would make a good fist of securing a quick return to the PL will have crossed a lot of our minds. It is encouraging to think that wholesale changes may not be forced upon us, as there should be plenty left in some of these players to deliver at championship level. The issue is if that all goes to plan, and at some point we surely need to invest in some proven PL quality, or we’re back here in 2 years time.