Betting against us, match per match

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Not_a_Cheat

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I'm supposed to be a bit of mathematical expert however, I'm drinking beer and I'm spending 2 months on holiday on the black sea coast, a holiday from my 17 year holiday living here.

Anyway, I thought about sticking a bet on every match for us to lose. Odds won't be great and in some cases might be worth ramping up the stake, but I just wondered, without even thinking about how to calculate it, thoughts on if say a stake of 10 of 20 every match, would relegation mean definite profit, safety possible profit, small loss. Top 10 over 50% loss but of course very fucking happy to lose money...


UTB
 

If you were backing at odds averaging evens over 38 games you'd need to win 50% of the time break even. Given you are likely to be backing odds less than that most of the time your strike rate will need to be much higher to turn a worthwhile profit.

Southampton went down on 25 points last season, losing 25 games in the process. You'd have probably been hard pushed for it to be worth it given the likely odds you'd have been betting at, particularly towards the end of the season.
 
It wont be an amazing profit though, since you're basically backing the equivalent of the sun rising in the east tomorrow. If you're happy to lose some money, perhaps back the sheffield double going the wrong way every weekend. At least if the worst happens (they stay up and we go down) then you'll have made a bit.
 
You could probably increase your bet following losing a bet, safe in the knowledge our next defeat isnt far away.
 
Spread bet sell at 29.5 points for say 50 quid a point then trouser £475 if we finish on 20 points.
 
2020/2021 season was great for this, nobody expected us to bad as bad as we were! Bit less value in these kind of bets this time around..
 
How about an accumulator?

  • Sheffield United to finish 20th
  • Sheffield United to score 25 or fewer points
  • Sheffield United to score 25 or fewer goals
  • Vinicius Souza to pick up at least 2 red cards
  • Sheffield United to concede 4+ goals on at least 3 occassions
 
Tony_Kaufman said:
How about an accumulator?

  • Sheffield United to finish 20th
  • Sheffield United to score 25 or fewer points
  • Sheffield United to score 25 or fewer goals
  • Vinicius Souza to pick up at least 2 red cards
  • Sheffield United to concede 4+ goals on at least 3 occassions
Click to expand...
Bookies will not offer that bet as one or more of those outcomes is linked to another.
 
ghandi said:
Bookies will not offer that bet as one or more of those outcomes is linked to another.
Click to expand...

Well, they won't offer that bet as a direct accumulator without adjusting for the correlation you correctly indicate at least. 95% of "bet builders" are correlated and they've worked out how to do that in real time
 
Son had a good touch last week
We watched pigs 🐷 game
He saw how many got booked took 43-1 on bookings for weekend fixtures
Put a score on it think it was 50 bookings to win
60+ got booked
Close to 900 notes
I don’t bet
 
Not_a_Cheat said:
I'm supposed to be a bit of mathematical expert however, I'm drinking beer and I'm spending 2 months on holiday on the black sea coast, a holiday from my 17 year holiday living here.

Anyway, I thought about sticking a bet on every match for us to lose. Odds won't be great and in some cases might be worth ramping up the stake, but I just wondered, without even thinking about how to calculate it, thoughts on if say a stake of 10 of 20 every match, would relegation mean definite profit, safety possible profit, small loss. Top 10 over 50% loss but of course very fucking happy to lose money...


UTB
Click to expand...
I won a lot of money last relegation season

I would say, amazingly, avoid the bigger games like City, Liverpool, Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal as they're such low odds, and we can spring a surprise (United away for example) and that skews things. I think any away game close to evens, and at home when the opposition are better than evens we're worth betting against. Palace is looking great value.
 
My advice is to wait for a game when we are winning 3-0 or 2-0 (it does occasionally happen) then back the opposition to draw or win from say, mid-way through the second half when the odds look good.

The odds will be in favour as exchange punters do not know how often this outcome happens. A fairly modest stake could pay dividends and numb the pain if it happens, and if it doesn't celebrate the win.

8th Feb 2019 - Villa away springs to mind.

HH
 

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