CONFIRMED Aaron Ramsdale returns to the Lane

[Kev Gee]

Theres no way we are paying a straight up fee of £18.5m for Ramsdale.

More likely we have waived any sell on fee from DB and added it unto the final value of Ramsdale.

 

[Charlieblade]

Happy if we have keeper of a good standard that we can develop as ‘our’ player for a change.

I can see Henderson loaned out to a top euro club, with a recall option, if De Gea continues to make costly errors. Good for Man U and good for Henderson.

We have our own keeper and a great Defence. No end of season crossed fingers to see if we will carry on paying to develop a top keeper for another club.

 

[EddieColquhoun]

We sold him for £800k under Wilder, I would ask why are we buying him back for so much if I was the boss.

His contract was up at the end of that season. We got £800k to £1m in January rather than a small tribunal fee when he walked 5 months later.

 

[Blade56]

I also pray that he doesn't get perpetually compared to Henderson

No no no. If the deal goes through Rambo is a Blade and we welcome him with open arms. Hendo was never our player and we should encourage Rambo to help Sufc and hope he develops into another Wikder/Knill gem.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

Theres no way we are paying a straight up fee of £18.5m for Ramsdale.

This seems to be the prevailing message from local press on twitter. Fully expecting that once the dust has settled in a couple of months, Wilder will be interviewed on the business and will say something like “nowhere near £18.5m by the way” in the same way he did with the Norwood deal when that had been reported as £2m.

 

[Balham]

This seems to be the prevailing message from local press on twitter. Fully expecting that once the dust has settled in a couple of months, Wilder will be interviewed on the business and will say something like “nowhere near £18.5m by the way” in the same way he did with the Norwood deal when that had been reported as £2m.

It's exactly the same message which came out from the Dorset press when we bought Mousset. That was reported as £10m even though it would only be that after a series of increasingly unlikely variables.

 

[Beans]

I always say that statistics and data are evidence not truth. They rarely exist in a vacuum, and can be filtered a myriad of ways and can often, somewhat paradoxically, display diametrically opposed ideas as being simultaneously true.

For example. I would say the following all appear to be true:
a) Ramsdale’s statistics show he is a mid-table (or average) goalkeeper in the PL
b) Mid-table performance for Ramsdale is significantly better than Bournemouth’s relegation placing, therefore he is significantly above average in comparison to the sum of his team.
c) Henderson’s performances put him in the top 5 keepers in the league.
d) However, Henderson was shielded by the third best defence in the league (of which he was a part, granted) therefore top 5 could be argued to be somewhat par for the course (harsh that one, but only used to illustrate the point).

All fair points but just to clarify, a lot of these stats (particularly the expected goals conceded vs actual goals conceded ones) are intended to strip out any noise around how good the team / defence in front of the keeper was. For example, two of the top five keepers in that category last season were Martin Dubravka (Newcastle) and Vicente Guaita (Palace) - neither of whom played behind anything close to a good defence.

Henderson actually outperformed the keepers behind the other best defences in the league last season. Henderson ranked 6th in the above metric per 90 minutes played, Alisson 11th, Ederson 8th, De Gea 10th, Rui Patricio 12th. Hand in hand with that (excuse the pun) was his save % - he ranked 3rd, de Gea 5th, Ederson 6th, Alisson 7th, Rui Patricio 17th.

 

[Niceguyeddie]

View attachment 88681

Barry the postman knows his shit to be fair

 

[HodgysBrokenThumb]

All fair points but just to clarify, a lot of these stats (particularly the expected goals conceded vs actual goals conceded ones) are intended to strip out any noise around how good the team / defence in front of the keeper was. For example, two of the top five keepers in that category last season were Martin Dubravka (Newcastle) and Vicente Guaita (Palace) - neither of whom played behind anything close to a good defence.

Henderson actually outperformed the keepers behind the other best defences in the league last season. Henderson ranked 6th in the above metric per 90 minutes played, Alisson 11th, Ederson 8th, De Gea 10th, Rui Patricio 12th. Hand in hand with that (excuse the pun) was his save % - he ranked 3rd, de Gea 5th, Ederson 6th, Alisson 7th, Rui Patricio 17th.

I am very suspicious of stats, but confess freely that I don’t understand the working. My gut instinct is that deciding what is an expected goal is an opinion, not a fact, and everything that follows from that is therefore subjective. The A-level algorithm has exposed the dangers of mis-application of stats, and while stats are some use, in the end the key thing is the judgement/opinion of Wilder, Knill, coaching staff, etc.

 

[bertieblade]

These stats are still subject to a personal opinion as to what rates as a good chance etc.
You only have to look at VAR to see how fallible that is.

 

[KoppedOff]

Theres no way we are paying a straight up fee of £18.5m for Ramsdale.

More likely we have waived any sell on fee from DB and added it unto the final value of Ramsdale.

This could prove to be a very savvy move should the Bournemouth into admin rumours come true. Obviously selling Ake will have probably eased that, but theres no way a club that size can survive (within the rules) paying out the wages and fees they have for the last 5 or so years.

If they did go into admin, any remaining Brooks payments go onto the list of creditors and we end up with a percentage if anything. Makes sense to cash in our “store credit” now and protect ourselves.

 

[Maidenhead]

View attachment 88681

Don't believe a word of it.

There's some right plonkers on the post, I should know, I was one of em.

 

[YES Blade]

This could prove to be a very savvy move should the Bournemouth into admin rumours come true. Obviously selling Ake will have probably eased that, but theres no way a club that size can survive (within the rules) paying out the wages and fees they have for the last 5 or so years.

If they did go into admin, any remaining Brooks payments go onto the list of creditors and we end up with a percentage if anything. Makes sense to cash in our “store credit” now and protect ourselves.

I thought football clubs were protected in some way? E.g. we’ll get all money owed to us even if they did go into administration.

 

[Balham]

This could prove to be a very savvy move should the Bournemouth into admin rumours come true. Obviously selling Ake will have probably eased that, but theres no way a club that size can survive (within the rules) paying out the wages and fees they have for the last 5 or so years.

If they did go into admin, any remaining Brooks payments go onto the list of creditors and we end up with a percentage if anything. Makes sense to cash in our “store credit” now and protect ourselves.

Football debts have to be paid in full.

 

[bypassblade]

I don't think any Blade or fan for that matter can discredit what Hendo did for United but, at the same time what we did for him. Yes he's a good GK that will only get better and move on to better brighter things, I can see him going abroad to enhance his education so to speak.

Ramsdale is a fine up and coming GK not much younger than Hendo but by coming to us it means he's ours, and Wilder can work and mould him. We all knew United was Hendo's stepping stone and he took the chance but, being realistic too rich a cost for us.

 

[Barney Rubble]

CONFIRMED - Dean Henderson signs season-long loan

Goalkeeper, ManYoo: linked with him in the Mirror article below: https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/jose-mourinho-persuades-demand-manchester-12684595 If its true I'm glad we're keeping our powder dry on the Blackman front and looking at other options in case we can't get...

www.s24su.com

Just re-read this thread. Lots of posters back then were disappointed we weren't getting Blackman back.

A change of keepers worked out fhen and I'm hopeful that this time it will turn out fine for us again.

 

[CaptainMorgans]

All fair points but just to clarify, a lot of these stats (particularly the expected goals conceded vs actual goals conceded ones) are intended to strip out any noise around how good the team / defence in front of the keeper was. For example, two of the top five keepers in that category last season were Martin Dubravka (Newcastle) and Vicente Guaita (Palace) - neither of whom played behind anything close to a good defence.

Henderson actually outperformed the keepers behind the other best defences in the league last season. Henderson ranked 6th in the above metric per 90 minutes played, Alisson 11th, Ederson 8th, De Gea 10th, Rui Patricio 12th. Hand in hand with that (excuse the pun) was his save % - he ranked 3rd, de Gea 5th, Ederson 6th, Alisson 7th, Rui Patricio 17th.

Our of interest, do the XG stats take cognisance of the level of football?

What I mean by that is, a Premier League striker, centre of goal, 10 yards out, free shot, probably bags 7/10.
In the Turkish league that may only be 5/10.

But if 7/10 is attributed to each scenario then Cakir's stats will look better due to the poorer finishers he's up against.

 

[Niceguyeddie]

It isn't £10m. The sell on clause is null and void we are paying full whack.

For ten million you should get peter shilton and ray clemence

 

[SUFCinks]

All fair points but just to clarify, a lot of these stats (particularly the expected goals conceded vs actual goals conceded ones) are intended to strip out any noise around how good the team / defence in front of the keeper was. For example, two of the top five keepers in that category last season were Martin Dubravka (Newcastle) and Vicente Guaita (Palace) - neither of whom played behind anything close to a good defence.

Henderson actually outperformed the keepers behind the other best defences in the league last season. Henderson ranked 6th in the above metric per 90 minutes played, Alisson 11th, Ederson 8th, De Gea 10th, Rui Patricio 12th. Hand in hand with that (excuse the pun) was his save % - he ranked 3rd, de Gea 5th, Ederson 6th, Alisson 7th, Rui Patricio 17th.

Ramsdale comes 3rd for PSxG and 6th for PSxG/SoT (whatever the fuck that means). So the stats are saying he’s a good keeper?

 

[A Storm of Blades]

All fair points but just to clarify, a lot of these stats (particularly the expected goals conceded vs actual goals conceded ones) are intended to strip out any noise around how good the team / defence in front of the keeper was. For example, two of the top five keepers in that category last season were Martin Dubravka (Newcastle) and Vicente Guaita (Palace) - neither of whom played behind anything close to a good defence.

Henderson actually outperformed the keepers behind the other best defences in the league last season. Henderson ranked 6th in the above metric per 90 minutes played, Alisson 11th, Ederson 8th, De Gea 10th, Rui Patricio 12th. Hand in hand with that (excuse the pun) was his save % - he ranked 3rd, de Gea 5th, Ederson 6th, Alisson 7th, Rui Patricio 17th.

Fantastic! Good to know that denomination is used from a nerdy POV

 

[HodgysBrokenThumb]

Our of interest, do the XG stats take cognisance of the level of football?

What I mean by that is, a Premier League striker, centre of goal, 10 yards out, free shot, probably bags 7/10.
In the Turkish league that may only be 5/10.

But if 7/10 is attributed to each scenario then Cakir's stats will look better due to the poorer finishers he's up against.

How would they calculate the stats for McGoldrick? (I love the guy to bits, I hasten to say)

 

[Beans]

Ramsdale comes 3rd for PSxG and 6th for PSxG/SoT (whatever the fuck that means). So the stats are saying he’s a good keeper?

nah those two are measuring how much work he had to do, not how he did.

 

[Beans]

Our of interest, do the XG stats take cognisance of the level of football?

What I mean by that is, a Premier League striker, centre of goal, 10 yards out, free shot, probably bags 7/10.
In the Turkish league that may only be 5/10.

But if 7/10 is attributed to each scenario then Cakir's stats will look better due to the poorer finishers he's up against.

It differs from source to source but generally the point is there is literally thousands upon thousands of shots logged to generate these averages to try and minimise the impact of the kind of thing you’ve put there. Plus good players at the highest level miss piss-easy chances too, hello Raheem Sterling

 

[SUFCinks]

nah those two are measuring how much work he had to do, not how he did.

What are the stats to look at then for a GK?

 

[s4-blade]

Ramsdale is a good keeper but we do appear to have bid over the odds. My main concern though is that if our budget is limited we should have been spending most of it on increasing our firepower up front. If we do still bring in a top quality striker I’ll be happy.

We finished 9th with last seasons forwards, and we haven’t lost any.
We have lost our goalkeeper and one of our best players.
Obviously that’s where a big chunk of cash should be going.

 

[s4-blade]

What are the stats to look at then for a GK?

Don’t waste your time. Even the best stats don’t even tell you half the story. Football is nuanced and cannot be simplified into numbers and charts, they can only supplement your own knowledge.

 

[yorkshirecoast]

We finished 9th with last seasons forwards, and we haven’t lost any.
We have lost our goalkeeper and one of our best players.
Obviously that’s where a big chunk of cash should be going.

If we don’t improve our forward line there is no way we will finish 9th next season. Teams will be better prepared against us from now on and I can’t see us keeping anywhere near the same number of clean sheets. We don’t need wholesale changes but we definitely need a better finisher.

It was a really good season built on a solid defence but our scoring record was poor.

 

[Beans]

What are the stats to look at then for a GK?

Alright, so caveat up front: there is no magic number that tells you how good a goalkeeper (or any position for that matter) is. And I am not an expert in this, just someone who finds it interesting as another layer to look at in addition to actually watching the player play. I know plenty don't, including the poster above But you asked, so here we are

Particularly in this case, there's a few categories that give a bit of a picture as to what kind of a keeper Ramsdale was last season. They don't tell us what he'll be like next season (probably). I have no doubt he'll get better given that he's young, that was his first season as a number 1 at this level, and I'd be willing to bet our goalkeeper coaching setup is better than Bournemouth's.

From FBRef, a measure of shot-stopping ability compared to the rest of the league is PSxG+/- (what a mouthful). If you mouse over the heading for the stats it shows you an explanation for each one - this one is "how likely a goalkeeper was to save a shot [based on data, not opinion]", minus the actual number of goals they conceded.

Dubravka absolutely smashed this with a +10 measure which basically he means his saves were "worth" 10 goals above the average: he faced a PSxG of 66 goals, and conceded 56 (note - he actually conceded 58, but 2 were own goals). Henderson was +4.6 - his saves were worth about 4 or 5 goals over the full season. Ramsdale was +0.1 - he did exactly what was expected of him, essentially. On the flipside, Kepa actively harmed his team this season at -9.8.

To an extent this can get skewed by how much work a keeper has to do. If a keeper doesn't face a single shot on target, he'll struggle to get that number up to Dubravka levels, because he literally has no saves to make. So Dubravka and Guaita being top of this might just mean they were only quite good, but very busy. But as the explainer on the site says, these numbers "suggest better luck or an above average ability to save shots". And it is over the course of a full season, so a decent sample size.

There's a good article on it here from Statsbomb (who provide the data that FBRef use): https://statsbomb.com/2018/11/a-new-way-to-measure-keepers-shot-stopping-post-shot-expected-goals/

Also worth looking at things like Save %, Crosses Stopped %, and #OPA (number of defensive actions outside penalty area - how often was he out sweeping up) just to give you a bit more of a picture of how he fared last season compared to all the other keepers in the league.

 

[Snowflake]

If we don’t improve our forward line there is no way we will finish 9th next season. Teams will be better prepared against us from now on and I can’t see us keeping anywhere near the same number of clean sheets. We don’t need wholesale changes but we definitely need a better finisher.

.....or more chances created for our existing strikers.

 

[alcoblade]

View attachment 88629

Henderson conceded about 10 goals less than was statistically expected in terms of the quality of shots on target faced last season (Kepa was a disaster!)
Ramsdale was kind of average last year, conceding about as many as was expected

Here I plot the save % vs. shots on target faced in the PL:

View attachment 88634

Bottom left = suggests good defence, poor GK. Top right = poor defence, good GK.
Again Hendo stands out with the 3rd best save % in the league, Ramsdale is 15th.

I also add in the Turkish league below. Cakir looks good with the 3rd highest save % in the league. However it is a lower standard of league and ideally I'd have the expected goals prevented on target data (the first chart, which helps to adjust for that fact that a keeper might be saving many low quality shots).

View attachment 88637

Average stats, but in the best league in the world.

22 years old is exceptionally young for a keeper, so he’s definitely on his way up.

I’d have preferred Hendo to stay for a year, but this sounds like a decent deal.