A statistical look at relegation after being bloody awful

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The Bear

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If one looks at the worst ten seasons in the Premier League how did these teams perform the subsequent season in the Championship.

Well only one team has come straight back up automatically, Sunderland in 2006-07 finishing as Champions, although Norwich may well emulate that this year.
An additional two teams finished in the play off places Sunderland 2003-04 and QPR in 2013-14. QPR made it through the play offs, Sunderland didn't.

As for the bad news, two clubs went straight on down to League one the following season following PL relegation - Sunderland in 2017-18 and Wolves in 2012-13.

Two others had a relegation battle and survived Derby 2008-09 and Huddersfield 2019-20 both finishing 18th and Watford 9th and Villa 13th finished mid table in their first seasons down.

So statistically the chances of coming back automatically are about as likely as crashing straight through to League One (assuming Norwich to make the auto places). Coming back any fashion is possibly only a 30% chance.

It is difficult to assess how many points we will get this season but I'd expect probably about 20. I suspect as in the disaster season of 75-76 we will pick up some results after relegation is confirmed.

So in contemplating 'smashing it in the Championship' evidence suggests this is less likely. Time will tell.
 

I think it's worth pointing out though, that of the teams that struggled the following year, Derby were much worse than we are (how bad must they have been?), and Sunderland were in real turmoil.

Providing we don't see a mass exodus, we should be in a much better place than a lot of those teams in terms of finances, squad and management.
 
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If one looks at the worst ten seasons in the Premier League how did these teams perform the subsequent season in the Championship.

Well only one team has come straight back up automatically, Sunderland in 2006-07 finishing as Champions, although Norwich may well emulate that this year.
An additional two teams finished in the play off places Sunderland 2003-04 and QPR in 2013-14. QPR made it through the play offs, Sunderland didn't.

As for the bad news, two clubs went straight on down to League one the following season following PL relegation - Sunderland in 2017-18 and Wolves in 2012-13.

Two others had a relegation battle and survived Derby 2008-09 and Huddersfield 2019-20 both finishing 18th and Watford 9th and Villa 13th finished mid table in their first seasons down.

So statistically the chances of coming back automatically are about as likely as crashing straight through to League One (assuming Norwich to make the auto places). Coming back any fashion is possibly only a 30% chance.

It is difficult to assess how many points we will get this season but I'd expect probably about 20. I suspect as in the disaster season of 75-76 we will pick up some results after relegation is confirmed.

So in contemplating 'smashing it in the Championship' evidence suggests this is less likely. Time will tell.
Is there meant to be a decimal point between the 2 and the 0
 
The Championship is (and always has been) a complete lucky dip in terms of predictability. Hardly any teams show consistency season-on-season (even play-off stalwarts like Derby suddenly turn randomly into relegation strugglers). Momentum and attitude counts for a lot. When you look at the teams that the OP cites, so much is about attitude. This is what we have to get right between now and the end of the season. I didn’t like what I saw yesterday, and really hope that we play more positively in the next few games.
 
If one looks at the worst ten seasons in the Premier League how did these teams perform the subsequent season in the Championship.

Well only one team has come straight back up automatically, Sunderland in 2006-07 finishing as Champions, although Norwich may well emulate that this year.
An additional two teams finished in the play off places Sunderland 2003-04 and QPR in 2013-14. QPR made it through the play offs, Sunderland didn't.

As for the bad news, two clubs went straight on down to League one the following season following PL relegation - Sunderland in 2017-18 and Wolves in 2012-13.

Two others had a relegation battle and survived Derby 2008-09 and Huddersfield 2019-20 both finishing 18th and Watford 9th and Villa 13th finished mid table in their first seasons down.

So statistically the chances of coming back automatically are about as likely as crashing straight through to League One (assuming Norwich to make the auto places). Coming back any fashion is possibly only a 30% chance.

It is difficult to assess how many points we will get this season but I'd expect probably about 20. I suspect as in the disaster season of 75-76 we will pick up some results after relegation is confirmed.

So in contemplating 'smashing it in the Championship' evidence suggests this is less likely. Time will tell.

You also have to take into account that most clubs being relegated have good Premier League players on their books and make massive sales, they lose the couple of stars from the team for massive money, but usually still have plenty of Premier League talent when the massive selling has been done.

Then you look at our squad, we have at least eight first team squad members who we wouldn't get anything for
 
Good post, though after last night I'm wondering where you think we'll get another 9 points from!
Well in 75/76 we won four of our last six including away at Leeds, (thank you Woody) when we had previously only won two all season.

It's amazing how much easier it is to play once the pressure is off.
 
This is why I wanted January signings even if only loans to get us some points this season to give us a bit of confidence
 
If one looks at the worst ten seasons in the Premier League how did these teams perform the subsequent season in the Championship.

Well only one team has come straight back up automatically, Sunderland in 2006-07 finishing as Champions, although Norwich may well emulate that this year.
An additional two teams finished in the play off places Sunderland 2003-04 and QPR in 2013-14. QPR made it through the play offs, Sunderland didn't.

As for the bad news, two clubs went straight on down to League one the following season following PL relegation - Sunderland in 2017-18 and Wolves in 2012-13.

Two others had a relegation battle and survived Derby 2008-09 and Huddersfield 2019-20 both finishing 18th and Watford 9th and Villa 13th finished mid table in their first seasons down.

So statistically the chances of coming back automatically are about as likely as crashing straight through to League One (assuming Norwich to make the auto places). Coming back any fashion is possibly only a 30% chance.

It is difficult to assess how many points we will get this season but I'd expect probably about 20. I suspect as in the disaster season of 75-76 we will pick up some results after relegation is confirmed.

So in contemplating 'smashing it in the Championship' evidence suggests this is less likely. Time will tell.
Was any of these previous seasons during a global pandemic where clubs haven’t had any income for over a year and aren’t able to spend any money? The championship has never been as weak as it is at the moment but you keep looking for reasons why we will suddenly get relegated to league one so we should sack the manager.
 
Was any of these previous seasons during a global pandemic where clubs haven’t had any income for over a year and aren’t able to spend any money? The championship has never been as weak as it is at the moment but you keep looking for reasons why we will suddenly get relegated to league one so we should sack the manager.
How do you deduce that? If anthing I was trying/pointing out that coming straight back up, statistically having previously had a f awful season, is not that likely, though not impossible.

As for not having any money to spend perhaps the money spent on Brewster and Ramsdale was mere petty cash for a club like Sheffield United and I missed that one along with our manager saying it was his best transfer window. This team finished 9th last season remember not 17th.
 

If one looks at the worst ten seasons in the Premier League how did these teams perform the subsequent season in the Championship.

Well only one team has come straight back up automatically, Sunderland in 2006-07 finishing as Champions, although Norwich may well emulate that this year.
An additional two teams finished in the play off places Sunderland 2003-04 and QPR in 2013-14. QPR made it through the play offs, Sunderland didn't.

As for the bad news, two clubs went straight on down to League one the following season following PL relegation - Sunderland in 2017-18 and Wolves in 2012-13.

Two others had a relegation battle and survived Derby 2008-09 and Huddersfield 2019-20 both finishing 18th and Watford 9th and Villa 13th finished mid table in their first seasons down.

So statistically the chances of coming back automatically are about as likely as crashing straight through to League One (assuming Norwich to make the auto places). Coming back any fashion is possibly only a 30% chance.

It is difficult to assess how many points we will get this season but I'd expect probably about 20. I suspect as in the disaster season of 75-76 we will pick up some results after relegation is confirmed.

So in contemplating 'smashing it in the Championship' evidence suggests this is less likely. Time will tell.
I wish more people thought like this. I keep seeing people say “Look at Norwich, they kept their manager” as though that proves something. What about all the teams that kept their manager and didn’t come back up, or who sacked them and did?

I’m pro Wilder, btw, but please argue the point properly.
 

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