2012/13 Magic Numbers and Projected Table

[dannycorker]

I don't know if any of you remember last year having the magic numbers being calculated during the run in, but I'm starting it up again this year. I've used a template that a member of this forum created last year, I have no idea who it was but thank you - if you want acknowledging just let me know who you are.

The spreadsheet can be viewed here - I've kept it up to date this season and will continue to do so for the rest of the year. Completely meaningless of course but for people like me it can be quite interesting.

Magic Numbers - 19/02/13

Bournemouth (13 Games to Play)
Champions - 43 (3.3 PPG)
Promotion - 43 (3.3 PPG)
Play Offs - 41 (3.15 PPG)

Doncaster (14 Games to Play)

Champions - 43 (3.07 PPG)
Promotion - 42 (3 PPG)
Play Offs - 40 (2.86 PPG)


Sheff Utd (14 Games to Play)

Champions - 44 (3.14 PPG)
Promotion - 44 (3.14 PPG)
Play Offs - 41 (2.93 PPG)


Yeovil (14 Games to Play)

Champions - 44 (3.14 PPG)
Promotion - 44 (3.14 PPG)
Play Offs - 41 (2.93 PPG)


Tranmere (14 Games to Play)

Champions - 45 (3.21 PPG)
Promotion - 45 (3.21 PPG)
Play Offs - 42 (3 PPG)


Swindon (15 Games to Play)

Champions - 46 (3.07 PPG)
Promotion - 45 (3 PPG)
Play Offs - 43 (2.87 PPG)


Brentford (15 Games to Play)

Champions - 47 (3.13 PPG)
Promotion - 47 (3.13 PPG)
Play Offs - 44 (2.93 PPG)


Projected Top 8


1 Doncaster 83.38
2 Sheffield Utd 81.94
-----------------------------
3 Yeovil 81.63
4 Swindon 81.55
5 Bournemouth 81.26
6 Tranmere 80.50
-----------------------------
7 Brentford 79.73
8 Coventry 69.34

 

[2ndtenorblade]

Fascinating, I'll try harder to understand them this year, keep 'em comming.

 

[Grecian2000]

I don't know if any of you remember last year having the magic numbers being calculated during the run in

Oh fuck!

Nothing like re-creating the worst ending to a season in living memory.

 

[Darren]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. All this magic number thing is pointless. All it does it tell you how many points you will need if your rivals win all their remaining games. As they won't, who cares what the number is?

I see that its even more pointless than that as it tells us that we need to get a number of points that it is impossible for us to get....

 

[UnitedBlade]

Interestingly, if you look at the last 4 seasons, of the contending sides at the beginning of March, those sides that averaged 2 points per game to the end of the season went on to gain promotion.

There's nothing between 7 sides at the moment, so if United can take 28 points from 14 games (85 points) it should be enough. Mind you, I'd be more confident if we were closer to 88 points.

There are 18 games still to play between the top 8. All to play for.

 

[travellingblade]

It is quite interesting that none of the teams can attain their "champions" total.

I assume that it is because there would be a tie, and only Doncaster & Swindon can achieve automatic "promotion" by winning every game, hence 3.0 points per game.

But if my maths are correct, we are guaranteed automatic promotion IF we WIN every game.

Note:- We would have beaten Swindon, and either Doncaster or Yeovil, or both, would have dropped points when they play each other.

But other than that, I love this format!

 

[TopBoy]

I'm a stat man so love this kind of stuff.

If we balls up a top two finish again I'll create a Magic Numbers speadsheet that contains the exact number of pints I'll need to drink to a) erase and b) numb the pain of playoff failure. last years was a) 14 pints b) 10 pints, it was a hot day though.

 

[dannycorker]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. All this magic number thing is pointless. All it does it tell you how many points you will need if your rivals win all their remaining games. As they won't, who cares what the number is?

I see that its even more pointless than that as it tells us that we need to get a number of points that it is impossible for us to get....

As I said in the first post - "Completely meaningless of course but for people like me it can be quite interesting."

I know its pointless, I just find it interesting. I thought others might so decided to share.

 

[2ndtenorblade]

As I said in the first post - "Completely meaningless of course but for people like me it can be quite interesting."

I know its pointless, I just find it interesting. I thought others might so decided to share.

I find it interesting, I particularly like how everybody needs more points than is possible to win the league, please keep it up.

'NOW, what I want is, Facts. Teach these boys and girls nothing but Facts. Facts alone are wanted in life.

 

[stannyblade]

Blades magic number 42 (14 games 14 wins)
Cant do any more than that and if we do were up as we play all the rival teams except Donny

 

[metalblade]

No team is going to win every game but if you take the top six and say they will win every game against teams below the top six and all draw when they play each other then Brentford will win the League followed by Swindon unfortunately we come in third so play off's again .................................. all a load of bollocks btw we all know one of the top teams will implode (Tranmere) and one team will come with a run from nowhere (Walsall/Coventry)

Is it time to start doing the old predictor thingy ? http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_2/predictor/default.stm

 

[Darren]

As I said in the first post - "Completely meaningless of course but for people like me it can be quite interesting."

I know its pointless, I just find it interesting. I thought others might so decided to share.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I am as much a fan as meaningless facts as the next man. What I dislike about the whole magic number thing is that in previous incarnations it has dressed itself up as some useful predictive tool when, as is said above, it is so absurd that it says that, to win the league, everyone needs more points then they can actually get!

 

[dannycorker]

Small update after last nights round of fixtures.

Magic Numbers - 20/02/13

Swindon (14 Games to Play)

Champions - 43 (3.07 PPG)
Promotion - 42 (3 PPG)
Play Offs - 38 (2.71 PPG)

Bournemouth (13 Games to Play)
Champions - 43 (3.3 PPG)
Promotion - 43 (3.3 PPG)
Play Offs - 38 (2.92 PPG)

Doncaster (14 Games to Play)

Champions - 43 (3.07 PPG)
Promotion - 42 (3 PPG)
Play Offs - 38 (2.71 PPG)


Sheff Utd (14 Games to Play)

Champions - 44 (3.14 PPG)
Promotion - 44 (3.14 PPG)
Play Offs - 39 (2.79 PPG)


Yeovil (14 Games to Play)

Champions - 44 (3.14 PPG)
Promotion - 44 (3.14 PPG)
Play Offs - 39 (2.79 PPG)


Tranmere (13 Games to Play)

Champions - 45 (3.46 PPG)
Promotion - 45 (3.46 PPG)
Play Offs - 42 (3.23 PPG)


Brentford (15 Games to Play)

Champions - 47 (3.13 PPG)
Promotion - 47 (3.13 PPG)
Play Offs - 42 (2.8 PPG)


Projected Top 8


1 Swindon 83.38
2 Doncaster 83.38
-----------------------------
3 Sheff Utd 81.94
4 Yeovil 81.63
5 Bournemouth 81.26
6 Brentford 79.73
-----------------------------
7 Tranmere 78.13
8 Coventry 69.34

 

[Trafford]

Whatever the results are from hereon in, keep United out of the top 2 in the magic numbers table - you know what will happen if we get ourselves into a position where we "should" get promoted!!

 

[Bognorblade]

It will come down to how many of the promotion contenders have to play those teams in the top half of the league for their remaining games. Can anyone work out, as of now, how many each team has? My thoughts are those with the least will have the best chance of promotion. Sorry if this is unrelated.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Is it time to start doing the old predictor thingy ? http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_2/predictor/default.stm

Relax

Swindon 86
Blades 83

Sorted

 

[Northyorksblade]

It will come down to how many of the promotion contenders have to play those teams in the top half of the league for their remaining games. Can anyone work out, as of now, how many each team has? My thoughts are those with the least will have the best chance of promotion. Sorry if this is unrelated.

As far as I'm concerned it will only come down to how many games we win. All the rest is bollocks

 

[travellingblade]

When the next set of Magic numbers are done, only ONE team will be able to be champions with 3 points per game, all the rest will need more than 3 points per game, i.e. it is in THAT team's hands.

 

[travellingblade]

Why no update?

 

[dannycorker]

Apologies for the complete lack of recent updates. Will be back on track now!

Magic Numbers - 05/03/13

Sheff Utd (11 Games to Play)

Champions - 32 (2.91 PPG) [11 W]
Promotion - 32 (2.91 PPG) [11 W]
Play Offs - 25 (2.27 PPG) [9W 2L | 8W 1D 2L | 7W 4D]

Doncaster (10 Games to Play)

Champions - 33 (3.30 PPG) [-]
Promotion - 31 (3.10 PPG) [-]
Play Offs - 24 (2.40 PPG) [8W 2L]

Swindon (11 Games to Play)

Champions - 36 (3.27 PPG) [-]
Promotion - 34 (3.09 PPG) [-]
Play Offs - 27 (2.45 PPG) [9W 2L | 8W 3D]

Yeovil (11 Games to Play)

Champions - 37 (3.36 PPG) [-]
Promotion - 35 (3.18 PPG) [-]
Play Offs - 28 (2.55 PPG) [9W 1D 1L]

Brentford (11 Games to Play)

Champions - 37 (3.36 PPG) [-]
Promotion - 35 (3.18 PPG) [-]
Play Offs - 28 (2.55 PPG) [9W 1D 1L]

Tranmere (10 Games to Play)

Champions - 38 (3.80 PPG) [-]
Promotion - 36 (3.60 PPG) [-]
Play Offs - 29 (2.90 PPG) [10W]

Bournemouth (11 Games to Play)
Champions - 40 (3.64 PPG) [-]
Promotion - 38 (3.45 PPG) [-]
Play Offs - 33 (3.00 PPG) [11W]


Projected Top 8


1 Sheff Utd 83.88
2 Doncaster 83.06
-----------------------------
3 Swindon 81.63
4 Yeovil 79.90
5 Brentford 79.82
6 Tranmere 76.67
-----------------------------
7 Bournemouth 74.11

 

[2ndtenorblade]

Best set of magic numbers yet.

 

[anglian blade]

Projected Top 8


1 Sheff Utd 83.88
2 Doncaster 83.06
-----------------------------
3 Swindon 81.63
4 Yeovil 79.90
5 Brentford 79.82
6 Tranmere 76.67
-----------------------------
7 Bournemouth 74.11[/quote]

I will bet my house on us not finishing on 83.88 points

 

[2ndtenorblade]

I will bet my house on us not finishing on 83.88 points

unless we get a 0.12 point deduction.

 

[travellingblade]

For the first time, we can be Champions without needing 3 points per game, but it's a points total that we CANNOT achieve!

i.e. We will be Champions if we reach 96 points, but we can only possibly get 95 or 97.

I love numbers!

 

[stannyblade]

For the first time, we can be Champions without needing 3 points per game, but it's a points total that we CANNOT achieve!

i.e. We will be Champions if we reach 96 points, but we can only possibly get 95 or 97.

I love numbers!

97 it is then.