Our form heading into past play off campaigns

[Selly]

As requested in this thread, I've had a look at our form heading into past playoff campaigns. I'm not counting 1988 as it was a completely different format. I've also highlighted games which were mathematical dead rubbers for us.

Is there a conclusion here? Well the "worst" season in which we got to a final (02-03) we achieved 1.375ppg over the final 8 games. Only once (21-22) have we averaged more than that and not made the final (and there we lost on penalties). So it does seem to be some correlation between better form and reaching the final.

Of course, given we have then lost every single final there is nothing to be learnt about how good we are when reaching the final based on form - we know the answer - we are useless.

1996-97

Form heading into Playoffs

DWLLWDWD (W3D3L2 - Pts 12 - 1.5 Ppg) - Final Position 5th

We secured our PO spot by beating Stoke at home on a Friday night, Carl Tiler with the only goal - as such our game at Charlton on the last day was a dead rubber.

PO Semi Finals v Ipswich
Home - 1 - 1
Away - 2 - 2

Won on Away Goals

PO Final V Palace
0-1

Having "won" our PO semi against Ipswich (a team that had beaten us 3-1 twice that season) we then lost to Palace (a team we had already beaten twice that season, most recently 6 week earlier when we dismantled them at the Lane)

The following season: We finished 6th

1997-98

Form heading into Playoffs

WDDWLDLL (W2D3L3 - Pts 9 - 1.125 Ppg) - Final position 6th

We "secured" our PO spot on the last day despite a loss to Stockport, by virtue of Birmingham drawing 0-0 in their final game

PO Semi Finals v Sunderland
Home - 2 - 1
Away - 0 - 2

Lost 2-3

We finished 16 points behind Sunderland in the regular season, and the gap showed in the first half at the lane - but, partly down to an error from their keeper, we got ourselves 2-1 and had a 3 on 1 at the end of the game which we didn`t take advantage of.

We were 2 down in quick time in the return leg - and despite rallying in the second half couldn`t get the goal that would have sent it to extra time.

The following season: We finished 8th

2002-03

Form heading into Playoffs

DLWLWDWL (W3D2L3 - Pts 11 - 1.375 Ppg)

We secured our PO spot by beating Leicester at home - by that time they were already promoted so the remainder of our games were effectively dead rubbers

PO Semi Finals v Forest
Away - 1 - 1
Home - 4 - 3

I don`t need to write up a description of this game…

PO Final V Wolves
0-3

Game was over by HT…nuff said

The following season: We finished 8th

2008-09

Form heading into Playoffs

WWWWDLWD (W5D2L1 - Pts 17- 2.125 Ppg)

We were alive in the Auto promotion race right up until the last day having secured a PO place 3 weeks prior.

PO Semi Finals v PNE
Away - 1 - 1
Home - 1 - 0

A very scrappy game in both legs - although BT Mk2 should have scored at the end of the first leg.

PO Final V Burnley
0-1

Lost to Burnley for the third time that season in what felt like the most inevitable result ever from the 13th minute

The following season: We finished 5th (there is a theme here…)


2011-12

Form heading into Playoffs

WWWWWLDD (W5D2L1 - Pts 17- 2.125 Ppg)

We were alive in the Auto promotion race right up until the last day having secured a PO place weeks prior.

PO Semi Finals v Stevenage
Away - 0 - 0
Home - 1 - 0

One of the most boring PO Semi finals I think I have ever watched - we clearly had no intention of attempting to score at their place and the confidence of the fans was demonstrated by the fact that over 8k who had attended the league game against Stevenage (which I imagine in many's head was the day we would have secured promotion when they bout their tickets) didn`t attend the Home PO Semi. Chris Porter got the winner with 5 mins remaining.

PO Final V Hudds
0-0

An awful game with barely a shot on target on one of the hottest days of the year. We lost despite Hudds missing their first 3 penalties.

The following season: We finished 5th


2012-13

Form heading into Playoffs

DDLWDLLD (W1D4L3 - Pts 7- 0.875 Ppg)

We secured a play off place in the barmy 2-2 draw with Brentford but were still technically in the Auto promotion race until we lost to Portsmouth the following week - we ended the season winning on 3 of our last 13 fixtures (having been top at that point)

PO Semi Finals v Yeovil
Home - 1 - 0
Away - 0 - 2

I can`t comment on this as I didn`t actually watch it - such was my apathy at the time - so I’ll let the attendance do the talking - 15,262

The following season: We finished 7th

2014-15

Form heading into Playoffs

LWWDLDDD (W2D4L2 - Pts 10 - 1.25 Ppg)

We secured a play off place with an away point at Orient in the penultimate game

PO Semi Finals v Swindon
Home - 1 - 2
Away - 5 - 5

We absolutely battered Swindon in the home leg and did not deserve to lose 2-1 - we were 3-0 down in 18 mins in the away leg and were lucky it wasn`t more. Goals by Done and Adams in the 88 and 90th mins put lipstick on this particular pig.

The following season: We finished Nigel Adkins inspired 11th…


2021-22

Form heading into Playoffs

LWDLDWWW (W4D2L2 - Pts 14- 1.75 Ppg)

We secured a play off place with an away win at QPR in the penultimate game

PO Semi Finals v Swindon
Home - 1 - 2
Away - 2 - 1

Lost on penalties

We were very lucky to lose 2-1 (Berge with the injury time goal) in the home leg - and then just as unlucky to only win 2-1 in the second leg after a second half that completely turned the tie around. If Ndiaye makes a better contact 5 mins from the end of Extra Time we possibly go up…

The following season: We finished 2nd

2024-25

Form heading into Playoffs

WLLL???? (W1D0L3?4 - Pts 3- 0.75 Ppg)

 

[MayorOJC]

I just spent an embarrassing amount of time trying to remember our 2021 play-off game against Swindon

 

[jockdodds]

As requested in this thread, I've had a look at our form heading into past playoff campaigns. I'm not counting 1988 as it was a completely different format. I've also highlighted games which were mathematical dead rubbers for us.

Is there a conclusion here? Well the "worst" season in which we got to a final (02-03) we achieved 1.375ppg over the final 8 games. Only once (21-22) have we averaged more than that and not made the final (and there we lost on penalties). So it does seem to be some correlation between better form and reaching the final.

Of course, given we have then lost every single final there is nothing to be learnt about how good we are when reaching the final based on form - we know the answer - we are useless.

1996-97

Form heading into Playoffs

DWLLWDWD (W3D3L2 - Pts 12 - 1.5 Ppg) - Final Position 5th

We secured our PO spot by beating Stoke at home on a Friday night, Carl Tiler with the only goal - as such our game at Charlton on the last day was a dead rubber.

PO Semi Finals v Ipswich
Home - 1 - 1
Away - 2 - 2

Won on Away Goals

PO Final V Palace
0-1

Having "won" our PO semi against Ipswich (a team that had beaten us 3-1 twice that season) we then lost to Palace (a team we had already beaten twice that season, most recently 6 week earlier when we dismantled them at the Lane)

The following season: We finished 6th

1997-98

Form heading into Playoffs

WDDWLDLL (W2D3L3 - Pts 9 - 1.125 Ppg) - Final position 6th

We "secured" our PO spot on the last day despite a loss to Stockport, by virtue of Birmingham drawing 0-0 in their final game

PO Semi Finals v Sunderland
Home - 2 - 1
Away - 0 - 2

Lost 2-3

We finished 16 points behind Sunderland in the regular season, and the gap showed in the first half at the lane - but, partly down to an error from their keeper, we got ourselves 2-1 and had a 3 on 1 at the end of the game which we didn`t take advantage of.

We were 2 down in quick time in the return leg - and despite rallying in the second half couldn`t get the goal that would have sent it to extra time.

The following season: We finished 8th

2002-03

Form heading into Playoffs

DLWLWDWL (W3D2L3 - Pts 11 - 1.375 Ppg)

We secured our PO spot by beating Leicester at home - by that time they were already promoted so the remainder of our games were effectively dead rubbers

PO Semi Finals v Forest
Away - 1 - 1
Home - 4 - 3

I don`t need to write up a description of this game…

PO Final V Wolves
0-3

Game was over by HT…nuff said

The following season: We finished 8th

2008-09

Form heading into Playoffs

WWWWDLWD (W5D2L1 - Pts 17- 2.125 Ppg)

We were alive in the Auto promotion race right up until the last day having secured a PO place 3 weeks prior.

PO Semi Finals v PNE
Away - 1 - 1
Home - 1 - 0

A very scrappy game in both legs - although BT Mk2 should have scored at the end of the first leg.

PO Final V Burnley
0-1

Lost to Burnley for the third time that season in what felt like the most inevitable result ever from the 13th minute

The following season: We finished 5th (there is a theme here…)


2011-12

Form heading into Playoffs

WWWWWLDD (W5D2L1 - Pts 17- 2.125 Ppg)

We were alive in the Auto promotion race right up until the last day having secured a PO place weeks prior.

PO Semi Finals v Stevenage
Away - 0 - 0
Home - 1 - 0

One of the most boring PO Semi finals I think I have ever watched - we clearly had no intention of attempting to score at their place and the confidence of the fans was demonstrated by the fact that over 8k who had attended the league game against Stevenage (which I imagine in many's head was the day we would have secured promotion when they bout their tickets) didn`t attend the Home PO Semi. Chris Porter got the winner with 5 mins remaining.

PO Final V Hudds
0-0

An awful game with barely a shot on target on one of the hottest days of the year. We lost despite Hudds missing their first 3 penalties.

The following season: We finished 5th


2012-13

Form heading into Playoffs

DDLWDLLD (W1D4L3 - Pts 7- 0.875 Ppg)

We secured a play off place in the barmy 2-2 draw with Brentford but were still technically in the Auto promotion race until we lost to Portsmouth the following week - we ended the season winning on 3 of our last 13 fixtures (having been top at that point)

PO Semi Finals v Yeovil
Home - 1 - 0
Away - 0 - 2

I can`t comment on this as I didn`t actually watch it - such was my apathy at the time - so I’ll let the attendance do the talking - 15,262

The following season: We finished 7th

2014-15

Form heading into Playoffs

LWWDLDDD (W2D4L2 - Pts 10 - 1.25 Ppg)

We secured a play off place with an away point at Orient in the penultimate game

PO Semi Finals v Swindon
Home - 1 - 2
Away - 5 - 5

We absolutely battered Swindon in the home leg and did not deserve to lose 2-1 - we were 3-0 down in 18 mins in the away leg and were lucky it wasn`t more. Goals by Done and Adams in the 88 and 90th mins put lipstick on this particular pig.

The following season: We finished Nigel Adkins inspired 11th…


2021-22

Form heading into Playoffs

LWDLDWWW (W4D2L2 - Pts 14- 1.75 Ppg)

We secured a play off place with an away win at QPR in the penultimate game

PO Semi Finals v Swindon
Home - 1 - 2
Away - 2 - 1

Lost on penalties

We were very lucky to lose 2-1 (Berge with the injury time goal) in the home leg - and then just as unlucky to only win 2-1 in the second leg after a second half that completely turned the tie around. If Ndiaye makes a better contact 5 mins from the end of Extra Time we possibly go up…

The following season: We finished 2nd

2024-25

Form heading into Playoffs

WLLL???? (W1D0L3?4 - Pts 3- 0.75 Ppg)

It was of course Forest, not Swindon, in 2022

 

[Selly]

It was of course Forest, not Swindon, in 2022

Bloody copy pasta error!!!

 

[LS16Blade]

This season has more than a few echoes of that 2012/13 season.

We spent pretty much all of that season in the top 6 but it always felt that we were waiting for the team to properly ‘click’ as the performances were rarely convincing and didn’t reflect the superior quality of player that we were able to field compared to most of our opponents.

The defence was miserly, though, and we edged a lot of tight matches. We only won 2 games by a greater than 2 goal margin.

We hit top spot a couple of times only to fail to capitalise by promptly chucking in our worst runs of results - 5 games without a win from Boxing Day including a home defeat to relegation-bound Hartlepool and then a run of 2 wins in 8 after completing the double over champions Bournemouth at the end of February, including an appalling 0-4 defeat at Stevenage and 4 consecutive blanks at the Lane - costing Wilson his job.

In April, with automatics still possible we somehow managed to capitulate 0-3 at already relegated Portsmouth and followed it up with a dire 0-1 defeat at Crewe.

It is hardly surprising that only 15,000 turned up for the Yeovil play-off first leg.

In his programme notes, Morgs wrote “In fairness our Achilles heel all season has been not scoring when we are dominating games, we haven’t been clinical enough in front of goal. We have got the tools and that is what we have to work with in the closing weeks of the campaign”.

Skipper Michael Doyle, meanwhile, wrote “The fans obviously aren’t keen on the play-offs, given our record it is understandable, but let’s be the ones to change things and make history”.

 

[programmechap]

We only secured our play off spot in 2022 in the last game, being Fulham 4-0