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gordoncharles said:
I'm all for optimism but that sounds too Wednesdayesque for my liking.

"9 points off safety" sounds like a dodgy car salesman telling you the car finance will only cost you £12 a day.
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Add to that the fact that we've played more games than everyone else - it's theoretically possible that we could actually be as much as 15 points from safety once everyone around us has played the same number of games as us. Yet for some reasoni'm still a believer!
 

Ask Wilder if he and the players have given up? of course they haven't

As for 20 games - it's only 1 at a time and about gathering points.

We need to reel in West Brom, then get after the next one after that.

At least we've started and got that first monkey off our backs - it simply moves on to Spurs. We must keep Kane and Son out of the game - do that and we have a chance.

UTB
 
gordoncharles said:
I'm all for optimism but that sounds too Wednesdayesque for my liking.

"9 points off safety" sounds like a dodgy car salesman telling you the car finance will only cost you £12 a day.

The reality is that we need 30 more points (absolute minimum, it could be more) from 20 games. That means that, having so far managed 9 goals in 18 games we have to have a better second half to the season than Leeds have had in the first half.

I'd sooner win the F.A. Cup and be relegated in any case. Seeing as we're currently 1/16 to be relegated I don't think there's much to be gained throwing the Cup away.
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Not so sure about the points tally. Villa stayed up last season on 35 points, and the current 17th placed team have fewer points than at the same stage last season. I think 32 points would do it.
 
I'll tell you something, if we can manage to somehow grab a win, or even a couple of draws, from the next 3 games then beat WBA, we will give ourselves a very slim, but not impossible, chance. Yesterday we looked like the old Sheffield United. We need to be in the race (albeit still at the back of the pack, I'm sure) come April time when our run in is favourable. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a team stayed up on 32 points this season. Believe!!
 
its possible, it would take a good run of wins. we would have to take 9pts in February to have a chance

& but it very funny that despite everything concerned we repeat the win from last season. WBA drop to the bottom & only 3 points behind fulham. & we are the only team of the bottom 4 to have won a match in the last 5 games. & as you look the rivals last win were
Brighton - 21st nov
fulham- 30th nov
WBA - 28th nov (guess who)
 
Stretch said:
It's a real shame that we have Spurs, Manure and City up next, because February's fixtures provide a real opportunity to kick on and get a few more wins.

That being said, I wouldn't rule out a shock or two now.
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But as Roygbiv and Beans pointed out in their latest podcast, we have Plymouth in between Spurs and Man U games to hopefully keep some momentum.
 

gordoncharles said:
I'm all for optimism but that sounds too Wednesdayesque for my liking.

"9 points off safety" sounds like a dodgy car salesman telling you the car finance will only cost you £12 a day.

The reality is that we need 30 more points (absolute minimum, it could be more) from 20 games. That means that, having so far managed 9 goals in 18 games we have to have a better second half to the season than Leeds have had in the first half.

I'd sooner win the F.A. Cup and be relegated in any case. Seeing as we're currently 1/16 to be relegated I don't think there's much to be gained throwing the Cup away.
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Look at it this way.

These are the facts presented:
  1. We're 9 from Brighton (safety)
  2. We're 7 from Fulham (2-games in hand)*
  3. We're 3 from WBA (1 game in hand)**
Let's not look higher than that.

Here's what we therefore need to do
  1. Beat Brighton and better their run-in by 2 wins
  2. Beat Fulham and better their run-in by 2 wins
  3. Beat WBA and better their run-in by 1 draw (** a draw and a win if they win their game in hand)
If we do all of those, we stay up.

*If Fulham win both their games in hand, this presents us with a major problem and would put us 10points from safety, based on the assumption we beat them at Craven Cottage.

One closing point...

Aston Villa were 7 points from safety with 4 games to play last season. We're 9 with 20 games to play.

Lets say we are 7 points from safety with 4 to play. The remaining games for each team are:

Blades
Palace (h)
Everton (a)
Newcastle (a)
Burnley (h)

WBA
Arsenal (a)
Liverpool (h)
West Ham (h)
Leeds (a)

Fulham
Burnley (h)
Southampton (a)
Man Utd (a)
Newcastle (h)

Brighton
Wolves (a)
West Ham (h)
Man City (h)
Arsenal (a)
 
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blademan31 said:
Oh you've just done it. You've turned me into a believer with that one stat. I'm in. It's doable.
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O'Connell bullet header on the last day to keep us up.

Wilder has always said, even in the successful seasons, he wants to take it to the last game with something to play for. I'm sure he'll be delighted (we all will) if we have something to play for on the last day.
 
mattbianco1 said:
Look at it this way....
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That's a great presentation, and like that it looks possible. Just like my car finance example, or a timeshare salesman might come up with. But it's a rationalisation.

Beating one team, whose own fans and local newspaper rightly thought put on a cowardly, lethergic performance, is not an indication that we can go on any sort of run.

I'm thrilled to bits a bit of confidence might return so that we can at least have a decent second half of the season and another good cup run, but after our next three league games we'll probably be 12 points from safety and the huge swing of largely misplaced optimism will evaporate.

Our support, like all support, is bi-polar. We won't turn that deficit around enough to stay up. I don't think we'll finish bottom of the league, though.
 
gordoncharles said:
That's a great presentation, and like that it looks possible. Just like my car finance example, or a timeshare salesman might come up with. But it's a rationalisation.

Beating one team, whose own fans and local newspaper rightly thought put on a cowardly, lethergic performance, is not an indication that we can go on any sort of run.

I'm thrilled to bits a bit of confidence might return so that we can at least have a decent second half of the season and another good cup run, but after our next three league games we'll probably be 12 points from safety and the huge swing of largely misplaced optimism will evaporate.

Our support, like all support, is bi-polar. We won't turn that deficit around enough to stay up. I don't think we'll finish bottom of the league, though.
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Do you not think we've had more than our share of bad luck though too? It seems everything has gone wrong together:

  • Poor finishing
  • Poor defending
  • Red card v Villa
  • No Red card v Arsenal
  • Red card v Brighton (Luke Shaw did exactly same last night and only got a yellow)
  • Late equaliser v Brighton
Bogle in the last minute other day would've been the icing on the cake.

We had the rub of the green last season, we're certainly not getting that this season. On the balance of the season, I would say we are 10pts off where we should be:
  • Villa - 1pt. (We wouldn't have lost with 1 men)
  • Leeds - 1pt (a draw was the fair result)
  • Fulham - 2pts (we should have been out of sight by HT)
  • West Ham - 1pt (draw was fair)
  • West Brom - 3pts (how we somehow lost that game is baffling)
  • Brighton - 2pts (maybe a draw was fair, but we were the better team with 11 men and nearly held on with 10)
These are the fine margins that Wilder always talks about. They can't all continue to go against us all season can they?

We probably deserved a draw v Everton too.
 
mattbianco1 said:
Bogle in the last minute other day would've been the icing on the cake.
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It would :) And you're right, the team should have picked up more points, but it hasn't for various reasons, most importantly to do with our quality at both ends (and in the middle).

If you look at the xG League table (which unfortunately is not the one the PL uses) we are currently 18th with 13 points - Burnley and WBA below us.

However.... that means we'd only be picking up much less than a point a game based on what we should have achieved.

We'd need to double that performance for the rest of the season and make it count.
 
It may sound daft but if any team can pull it off it's United, I watched the pen v Newcastle and it's 2 players going shoulder to shoulder no quarter given, then Fernandez swipes ball away with hand deffo pen. Then I think back to Villa Watkins is all over Egan foul to us, no let's send the player off for the Blades. I think 2 wins back to back could have done wonders for players have we turned the corner, I'd like to think so.
 
gordoncharles said:
If you look at the xG League table (which unfortunately is not the one the PL uses) we are currently 18th with 13 points
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I wasn't far off then was I. I'd say we should be on 15pts. xG says 13.

Let's just hope that a little confidence at both ends in addition to the fine margins tipping back in our favour 🤞
 
bypassblade said:
It may sound daft but if any team can pull it off it's United, I watched the pen v Newcastle and it's 2 players going shoulder to shoulder no quarter given, then Fernandez swipes ball away with hand deffo pen. Then I think back to Villa Watkins is all over Egan foul to us, no let's send the player off for the Blades. I think 2 wins back to back could have done wonders for players have we turned the corner, I'd like to think so.
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I'll firmly be in the BELIEVE camp if we could pull something off against Spurs, Sunday. Could've done without Fulham getting something last night though, 2-fold. Spurs will want to bounce back and Fulham got a point.
 
mattbianco1 said:
O'Connell bullet header on the last day to keep us up.

Wilder has always said, even in the successful seasons, he wants to take it to the last game with something to play for. I'm sure he'll be delighted (we all will) if we have something to play for on the last day.
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So you're saying this is all part of Wilder's plan? Throw the first half of the season to keep things exciting for the conclusion. That somehow makes more sense than the utter capitulation we've witnessed ;)

Onward and upward!
 
A lot of people (me included) suggested this season would be a low points total required for survival. In a way, it's kind of true - currently 28points would keep you up. If Fulham win their next 2, that means that 34pts would have been enough for Brighton.

However, due to the fact there's 3 absolutely woeful teams going down, it could end up being the opposite. Because Fulham, WBA and Blades have been so poor, Brighton could finish on 44pts which means that to send them down, it's actually one of the highest ever tallies required (probably highest ever in a 38 game season).

If that makes sense 🤷‍♂️
 
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