‘XG’

[Fanny magnet]

It's statistical analysis ,what did some of you think it was ? The matrix?

 

[PokerBlade]

Can't believe I've just read 'Robert Sapolsky' on a Blades forum!

Better beard than McGoldrick but not as good with his feet.

I occasionally watch the Poker World Championship and you often see someone betting hard on a very good hand with a probability of winning above 90%. Then the other player gets a river card to win. That’s a proper kick in the bollocks.

Football can be like that, you can play well, create sufficient chances to win and restrict the opponents to only a few half chances. But still lose 1-0.

I want to joke that you see it 10% of the time, but the poker highlights are skewed towards the big moments. A big part of the game is having the mindset able to deal with the crazy swings. In spite of the personas on the telly, most of the better players I've know are really laid back people who can take that kind of thing in their stride. It's really difficult to visualise big numbers and how the swings go. When you look at how well you're playing in cash poker you need a sample size in the tens of thousands of hands just to get an idea. The upshot is you can develop a really good state of mind where you start assessing decisions not on whether the "luck of the draw" goes in your favour but based on the decisions you made with the information you had.

So, to try and relate it to football: Cristiano Ronaldo missed the easiest chance I've ever seen missed at Bramall Lane but he's scored more hat-tricks than anyone in the game. Why? Because no chance is a guarantee. When you play like Ronaldo does, consistently doing the right things, getting in the right positions, you can forget that daft one you missed in Sheffield and lift another trophy.

That's the point of stats like XG. To be able to say that a given result might not have been the result of bad play or bad planning, it might simply be a random spike in the data. My example always being losing to Walsall three times in a season where we stormed the league. The weird quirks like that in isolation mean nothing when taken in the scope of a full season.

 

[Pinchy]

There is a pretty good idea behind POMO, the thinking being that you can only score if the ball is in the ‘Position Of Maximum Opportunity), which makes perfect sense. Under the management of Weir and Clough I despaired as we fannied about with the ball and had no clear method of how to deliver the ball in to the POMO. To the untrained eye we might look like we fanny about with the ball too much but Wilder and Knill have trained the players several ways to quickly and effectively deliver the ball in to the POMO.

I personally think whoever came up with the term POMO was a coaching genius.

I see you coming now, mate...

Are you Charles Hughes in disguise? Are you...etc.

 

[bricktop]

I see you coming now, mate...

Are you Charles Hughes in disguise? Are you...etc.

Come on Pinchy, don’t want me to talk you through the famed Flo Pass again......

 

[grafikhaus]

I’m going way off topic now. But now that this data can be used in real time it does change things for managers and coaches.

And it can lead to owners changing managers and coaches...like at Fulham.

Fulham have fallen for the latest snake-oil bullshit - RITA (Roster Improvement Through Analysis). Here's Martin Samuel's take on it. As he says, no data analysis in the world could have told Fulham they'd signed a cunt in Aboubakar Kamara.

I'm open to all kinds of meaningful improvement and am certainly not a Luddite, but RITA (and Xg.) simply isn't suited to soccer-ball and rosters . There was tinkering at Fulham, and not all of it came from Ranieri.

About 30 years ago, I worked for a Croydon company who provided us all with home fax machines, carphones etc. (all pretty revolutionary back then). The obvious thinking was 'Well, we've provided them with all the tools so there's no excuse for failure.'

The many flaws in this strategy were that they wanted to charge 45% more than their rivals for exactly the same product. The Croydon-based workforce were largely useless (and lazy) and they were up against 14 competitors who were hungry (mostly Sheffield-based).

The Chairman and directors left pretty soon as sales tanked, no doubt to reappear at other companies who fell for their 'radical, outside-of-the-envelope thinking'. In other words, they'd over-analysed - looked too deeply at trends, stats. etc. while ignoring the business basics that were all wrong.

 

[SwissBlade]

And it can lead to owners changing managers and coaches...like at Fulham.

Fulham have fallen for the latest snake-oil bullshit - RITA (Roster Improvement Through Analysis). Here's Martin Samuel's take on it. As he says, no data analysis in the world could have told Fulham they'd signed a cunt in Aboubakar Kamara.

I'm open to all kinds of meaningful improvement and am certainly not a Luddite, but RITA (and Xg.) simply isn't suited to soccer-ball and rosters . There was tinkering at Fulham, and not all of it came from Ranieri.

About 30 years ago, I worked for a Croydon company who provided us all with home fax machines, carphones etc. (all pretty revolutionary back then). The obvious thinking was 'Well, we've provided them with all the tools so there's no excuse for failure.'

The many flaws in this strategy were that they wanted to charge 45% more than their rivals for exactly the same product. The Croydon-based workforce were largely useless (and lazy) and they were up against 14 competitors who were hungry (mostly Sheffield-based).

The Chairman and directors left pretty soon as sales tanked, no doubt to reappear at other companies who fell for their 'radical, outside-of-the-envelope thinking'. In other words, they'd over-analysed - looked too deeply at trends, stats. etc. while ignoring the business basics that were all wrong.

We had 2 fatalities on our sites in iraq last year, just after the new MD came in. Nothing he’d done, just Bad timing on his part.

So his first task, improve safety. So he got everyone reporting more. The theory being that report more = prevent more.

Great idea and it was certainly needed. He was armed with new statistics which showed an increased trend in reporting as people have issued more safer cards.

But now the levels have dropped again and he ordered a big meeting with everyone. We all need to issue safer cards.

I work in an office and not on site, but we raised some cards anyway.

HSE told us that we were wasting our time, they don’t have enough people to handle to the ones they have and as a result they’re tied to their desks rather than out their on site preventing issues occurring.

Stats will show that we’re reporting more though...

 

[BushBlade]

We had 2 fatalities on our sites in iraq last year, just after the new MD came in. Nothing he’d done, just Bad timing on his part.

So his first task, improve safety. So he got everyone reporting more. The theory being that report more = prevent more.

Great idea and it was certainly needed. He was armed with new statistics which showed an increased trend in reporting as people have issued more safer cards.

But now the levels have dropped again and he ordered a big meeting with everyone. We all need to issue safer cards.

I work in an office and not on site, but we raised some cards anyway.

HSE told us that we were wasting our time, they don’t have enough people to handle to the ones they have and as a result they’re tied to their desks rather than out their on site preventing issues occurring.

Stats will show that we’re reporting more though...

In all three cases though, it’s clear that the issue is poor decision making by people who know too little about the job they’re trying to do.

Fulham, specifically, have tried to recruit players without sufficient involvement from experienced recruiters and proper liaison with their manager. They’ve signed the wrong players and tried to integrate too many new signings into the first team at the expense of those who got them promoted.

 

[SwissBlade]

In all three cases though, it’s clear that the issue is poor decision making by people who know too little about the job they’re trying to do.

Fulham, specifically, have tried to recruit players without sufficient involvement from experienced recruiters and proper liaison with their manager. They’ve signed the wrong players and tried to integrate too many new signings into the first team at the expense of those who got them promoted.

Funny isn’t it that clubs like Brentford and fulham, who last year we thought were being well run to get the best out of their teams, were in fact just a trigger finger away from fucking themselves up completely

Leicester are the same, got giddy with a freak win, believed they were something they’re not and then sack another manager. Will Rodgers get them top 6? Nope. Will he take them down, probably not

 

[BushBlade]

Funny isn’t it that clubs like Brentford and fulham, who last year we thought were being well run to get the best out of their teams, were in fact just a trigger finger away from fucking themselves up completely

Leicester are the same, got giddy with a freak win, believed they were something they’re not and then sack another manager. Will Rodgers get them top 6? Nope. Will he take them down, probably not

I’ve never rated either as being that well run. Benham was one of the first to try to use statistics to recruit players. I still think the main reason for their ‘success’ was the money he put into them. They’ve now got to fund the stadium move and the championship has changed a lot since they went up.

Slav had a few issues last season over recruitment and the way Fulham was run. My understanding, from talking to Fulham fans, is that Shahid Khan is OK but his son is an idiot. From the outside, it does look like he’s played a very expensive game of Football Manager.

 

[vas borbokis]

I tad early to read much into the xg stats but looking on infogol we edged it at Bournemouth and maybe on chances created could/should have won 2 1.
Pigs on the other hand should probably have drawn both their games 1 1.

 

[Niceguyeddie]

I tad early to read much into the xg stats but looking on infogol we edged it at Bournemouth and maybe on chances created could/should have won 2 1.
Pigs on the other hand should probably have drawn both their games 1 1.

Didn't they have a similar start last season.whete they were massively outperforming xg or was that the season before ?
I remember it soon caught up with them

 

[vas borbokis]

Didn't they have a similar start last season.whete they were massively outperforming xg or was that the season before ?
I remember it soon caught up with them

Yes they did. Largely due to a few long range efforts from Reach.
Good that we are creating high xg chances still, and more so given the flat 3 in midfield we deployed for most of the game.

 

[DronnieBlade]

The Chinese in particular, have latched on to the FACT that the data industry, and all it’s variations and derivatives, is the fastest growing industry on the planet. Some of the ways data is gathered and used is immoral and probably illegal. But you get the point.

It’s not nonsense. It’s a multi Billion dollar industry.

UTB

 

[Wards]

Love reading the responses to XG etc. If you really think it’s a load of bollocks then maybe go and explain your train of thought to our management team who certainly do use it and base their recruitment on it. Can’t say they haven’t used it well!

A refusal to move with the times and a stubbornness not to make use of the data available is likely part of the reason why certain managers are being left on the scrap heap, no doubt trotting out the same tired old clichés they have done for the past 15 years. I don’t think anyone is suggesting the stats are the be all and end all but they definitely provide good barometers.

Pleasing to see the ‘good’ indicators this weekend. Presume B’mouth’s two high XG chances came from the initial shot and follow-up to their goal?

 

[Mousey]

Love reading the responses to XG etc. If you really think it’s a load of bollocks then maybe go and explain your train of thought to our management team who certainly do use it and base their recruitment on it. Can’t say they haven’t used it well!

A refusal to move with the times and a stubbornness not to make use of the data available is likely part of the reason why certain managers are being left on the scrap heap, no doubt trotting out the same tired old clichés they have done for the past 15 years. I don’t think anyone is suggesting the stats are the be all and end all but they definitely provide good barometers.

Pleasing to see the ‘good’ indicators this weekend. Presume B’mouth’s two high XG chances came from the initial shot and follow-up to their goal?

It might have been the chance in the first half where Mepham sliced it wide. I think it works based on each attack, if a shot is saved and the rebound is tapped in then it’s the rebound that is classed as the chance.

 

[DronnieBlade]

Love reading the responses to XG etc. If you really think it’s a load of bollocks then maybe go and explain your train of thought to our management team who certainly do use it and base their recruitment on it. Can’t say they haven’t used it well!

A refusal to move with the times and a stubbornness not to make use of the data available is likely part of the reason why certain managers are being left on the scrap heap, no doubt trotting out the same tired old clichés they have done for the past 15 years. I don’t think anyone is suggesting the stats are the be all and end all but they definitely provide good barometers.

Pleasing to see the ‘good’ indicators this weekend. Presume B’mouth’s two high XG chances came from the initial shot and follow-up to their goal?

This.

UTB

 

[moDtheGod]

I think it works based on each attack, if a shot is saved and the rebound is tapped in then it’s the rebound that is classed as the chance.

Depends on the model I guess. Infogol is certainly not doing that, it counts both.

 

[Bladesman]

 

[Rodders]

2.02 of that was Didsy’s chance

 

[vas borbokis]

How does this match end 2 2?
Unbelievable! Anyone watched it?

 

[Carlton Blade]

How does this match end 2 2?
Unbelievable! Anyone watched it?View attachment 65709

It's a bit of a lie the xG in this. Man City were very lethargic and City sat very deep. Poor game with 2 amazing goals

 

[bromtom]

How does this match end 2 2?
Unbelievable! Anyone watched it?View attachment 65709

I watched it. Man City shot a lot in the box, but usually waited until someone got across and shot straight up a defenders arse and had it blocked. They were awful, trying to walk it in all the time. Sterling needs a rest.

 

[Cerberus Blade]

shot a lot in the box, but usually waited until someone got across and shot straight up a defenders arse

I don’t like the sound of this at all!

 

[Bladesman]

How does this match end 2 2?
Unbelievable! Anyone watched it?View attachment 65709

It might have something to do with City having 24 shots but only 9 on target.

 

[DronnieBlade]

The fact that all 92 clubs are aware of it, use it, monitor it, benchmark it, strive to enhance performance via it appears to have impacted little on our “I know better” brigade .

UTB