Compared with last season...

[stringjunior]

Glass half full, that's 5 wins from 7, or 5 from 8 if glass half empty. Either way it's darn good form......

 

[Highbury_Blade]

All of those teams will drop points (including when they play each other), but three out of the four have to have fairly poor run-ins to fail to reach 82 (Bristol City's would have to be atrocious!), and I don't see that happening. One may have a poor run, possibly even two, but three is very unlikely.

Highbury has a fair point about the last 6 games, but a poor run over 6 games is one thing - a poor run over a third of a season is another. All of those teams have easily achieved those points per game levels over the season so far. It's difficult to think that three out of the four will drop off so significantly in the last third of the season.

Of course, the alternative is that we accept a higher points total will be needed for automatic - but in that case the points per game which we require starts to look unrealistic.

If the points per game for the rest of the season matched the last 6 games then we would sneak up in 2nd place on 82 points. I certainly don't think the magic number will be 82 though, more likely something like 88, and to do that we'll need to have no more than three losses and 2 draws from the last 17 games, and hope that all of the teams above us fuck up. I still think both of those objectives are a tall order.

 

[stringjunior]

grafikhaus chief, could you add a line in for the predicted auto and playoffs for this season now? I know it would be a pain, and open to debate, but we're getting closer now and it would be really interesting.... Don't worry if not

 

[blade too long]

4 in a week , matches wednesday total league goal output for 2015

 

[JohnDenver]

If the points per game for the rest of the season matched the last 6 games then we would sneak up in 2nd place on 82 points. I certainly don't think the magic number will be 82 though, more likely something like 88, and to do that we'll need to have no more than three losses and 2 draws from the last 17 games, and hope that all of the teams above us fuck up. I still think both of those objectives are a tall order.

It's a very long shot but I think the best hope is to get within 6pts range in the next few weeks and see how others cope with the pressure. The depth of our squad should give us an edge before the pitches harden again.

 

[Highbury_Blade]

It's a very long shot but I think the best hope is to get within 6pts range in the next few weeks and see how others cope with the pressure. The depth of our squad should give us an edge before the pitches harden again.

What depth? If Done gets injured what then?

 

[RealMcCoy]

What depth? If Done gets injured what then?

Pass the ball to Jamie Murphy, or Adams even...

 

[grafikhaus]

grafikhaus chief, could you add a line in for the predicted auto and playoffs for this season now? I know it would be a pain, and open to debate, but we're getting closer now and it would be really interesting.... Don't worry if not

Blimey! Do you want this Saturday's Lottery numbers while I'm at it?

Yes, we are 'getting closer now', but we've still got over a third of the season to go. The top six teams have 97 games still to play so there are far too many intangibles. Such as:

Who would have thought that last weekend, only United out of the top ten would win?
Don't forget, a team will 'come up on the rails' - they always do. Could be Donnie. Could be Bradford. Fleetwood (don't laugh!) or Scunny (yet to play us twice) could be the one.
Also, don't forget that every time a new team takes sixth spot (as Donnie did last night), it cements our place in the top six - the seventh-placed team have dropped behind.

What I have been thinking of is a 'Chasing' graph - a game-by-game illustration of how we are doing viz-a-viz our play off/auto rivals. I only started it last Saturday and have made up points tallies to give a good sample size. As the weeks pass, it will show if we're storming it or faltering...

Hope this helps:

​

 

[grafikhaus]

Did I really say Fleetwood?

Current form guide.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Did I really say Fleetwood?

Current form guide.

Stop it

I still think we're too far off the pace, that run of 7 or 8 games around November will come back to haunt us. I can see us getting close but the top 3 or 4 will all need to perform worse than they have all season and it's too much to ask for. I can see us finishing 3rd, about 4 or 5 points behind. Then.................

 

[metalblade]

Looking at the current form guide if it stays the same till the end of the season it could end up being very close going into the last few games. But to be fair with our new additions to the squad I can only see us improving our form which over the last 6 games still includes 2 losses even though we are in third spot, of course Scunthorpe could well be our banana skin.

 

[stringjunior]

Blimey! Do you want this Saturday's Lottery numbers while I'm at it?

Yes, we are 'getting closer now', but we've still got over a third of the season to go. The top six teams have 97 games still to play so there are far too many intangibles. Such as:

Who would have thought that last weekend, only United out of the top ten would win?
Don't forget, a team will 'come up on the rails' - they always do. Could be Donnie. Could be Bradford. Fleetwood (don't laugh!) or Scunny (yet to play us twice) could be the one.
Also, don't forget that every time a new team takes sixth spot (as Donnie did last night), it cements our place in the top six - the seventh-placed team have dropped behind.

What I have been thinking of is a 'Chasing' graph - a game-by-game illustration of how we are doing viz-a-viz our play off/auto rivals. I only started it last Saturday and have made up points tallies to give a good sample size. As the weeks pass, it will show if we're storming it or faltering...

Hope this helps:

View attachment 10623​

Marvellous. I do like my stories to commit pretty pictures!

Good lad, thank you

 

[Dec]

Hope this helps:

View attachment 10623​

Wouldn't it be better to track 7th rather than 6th considering we are the chased not the chaser?

Thanks for these graphs.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

If the points per game for the rest of the season matched the last 6 games then we would sneak up in 2nd place on 82 points. I certainly don't think the magic number will be 82 though, more likely something like 88, and to do that we'll need to have no more than three losses and 2 draws from the last 17 games, and hope that all of the teams above us fuck up. I still think both of those objectives are a tall order.

All the teams above don't need to slip up, if City win all their games it makes no difference to us, we are chasing 2nd spot, see post #818.

I still think four loses could do it, long shot but the nearer we get to the last 12 games with those four loses still in the bank the more I'll believe.

 

[grafikhaus]

Wouldn't it be better to track 7th rather than 6th considering we are the chased not the chaser?

Thanks for these graphs.

Dunno if I'm having a 'senior moment', but surely if we converge/slip under '6th' that's us out of the promotion positions?

 

[Dec]

Dunno if I'm having a 'senior moment', but surely if we converge/slip under '6th' that's us out of the promotion positions?

But if it comes to it that we're looking over our shoulder to ensure we make the playoffs, wouldn't we be that team in 6th position?

Oh I don't know, confused myself now!

 

[WorkingtonBlade]

Blimey! Do you want this Saturday's Lottery numbers while I'm at it?

Well, as you're in the giving mood, grafikhaus.....

I love your graph, but it always grates that the 'projection' line doesn't pass exactly through our current position on the 'season 14/15' line. Logically it should do, because otherwise it looks as if our current position is a bit better than the projection which is supposed to be based on it.

The reason it happens is that the x-axis starts at 1 game, when it should start at 0 games (i.e all the lines should start at 0 points from 0 games). If you correct that, then the projection line will look right.

Now, about those lottery numbers....?

 

[stringjunior]

So what started out as a helpful graph for us all gets critiqued all the time (I've done it plenty) Poor grafikhaus. He was only trying to be helpful

 

[grafikhaus]

So what started out as a helpful graph for us all gets critiqued all the time (I've done it plenty) Poor grafikhaus. He was only trying to be helpful

Nah, string. I'm big enough and ugly enough to...make graphs! What Workington says makes sense. I've had a quick play but - so far - haven't managed to 'start' at Ground Zero. Any Excel experts out there? (As opposed to enthusiastic amateurs with too much time on their hands!)

 

[WORKSOPBLADE]

It's a very long shot but I think the best hope is to get within 6pts range in the next few weeks and see how others cope with the pressure. The depth of our squad should give us an edge before the pitches harden again.

Think we'll be 7 points off second by end of next Tuesday, with a game in hand.

 

[grafikhaus]

Strange game. Even down to ten men for most of the game it doesn't excuse a collective 'bad day at the office' by almost all of the team. With Swindon & Bristol losing, 3 points were vital but I suppose after what had gone before a draw isn't bad. Expect one or two missing on Tuesday owing to the ref. letting Cov. get away with it.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Nah, string. I'm big enough and ugly enough to...make graphs! What Workington says makes sense. I've had a quick play but - so far - haven't managed to 'start' at Ground Zero. Any Excel experts out there? (As opposed to enthusiastic amateurs with too much time on their hands!)

Hire Weir if you need to get to zero.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Strange game. Even down to ten men for most of the game it doesn't excuse a collective 'bad day at the office' by almost all of the team. With Swindon & Bristol losing, 3 points were vital but I suppose after what had gone before a draw isn't bad. Expect one or two missing on Tuesday owing to the ref. letting Cov. get away with it.

View attachment 10742

If we had drawn at City and won today we'd be where we are now and everyone feeling better.

Still four loses.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Think we'll be 7 points off second by end of next Tuesday, with a game in hand.

Or we've got to make up seven points in the next forty eight.

 

[grafikhaus]

If we had drawn at City and won today we'd be where we are now and everyone feeling better.

Still four loses.

Just what the bloke next to me said at the match. I don't agree. The Bristol points were already pocketed and we again failed to cash in. Any other scenario is like saying 'I found a grand. Then it dropped out of my pocket. Hey ho! I'm in the same position as before.'

 

[grafikhaus]

We keep up the pressure... (Plus seven point 'cushion' to seventh!)

 

[grafikhaus]

A bit disappointing but that's football. Swindon dropped points against a lesser team (Crewe) and MKD lost at Coventry. Just keep going, Blades.

 

[Maidenhead]

We've had a dip but we now have a nice cushion and are back above the yellow line.

That will do for me. Anything other than the play offs will either be a pleasant surprise or a nasty shock given where we are now.

UTB

 

[blade too long]

a dip ? drawing with 10 and an away point at a team who,d just beaten swindon
depends how you look at it , we are never going to win 20 on the bounce ,
the thing is to eat away at the gap over 15 games

http://www.footballformguide.net/form/sky-bet-league-1

we have over the past 6 got double the points mk dons and swindon
have, ie made up a 7 point deficit on them , preston are the main combatants and they have a really tough run in.
not losing is a good habit , 1 point will always be better than 0 , and take the 3 points when ever we can

oldham notts county
and rochdale appear to have fallen apart afer looking potential play off teams

 

[Maidenhead]

a dip ? drawing with 10 and an away point at a team who,d just beaten swindon
depends how you look at it , we are never going to win 20 on the bounce ,
the thing is to eat away at the gap over 15 games

http://www.footballformguide.net/form/sky-bet-league-1

we have over the past 6 got double the points mk dons and swindon
have, ie made up a 7 point deficit on them , preston are the main combatants and they have a really tough run in.
not losing is a good habit , 1 point will always be better than 0 , and take the 3 points when ever we can

oldham notts county
and rochdale appear to have fallen apart afer looking potential play off teams

I meant that between matches 19 and 28 we dipped below the yellow line but we're now back above it and looking well on track for the play offs.

I completely agree with everything you say