Luck (or lack of)

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Bladepicker

Bladepicker

Paul Coutts Fan Club Founder Member
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Firstly I must stress that I don't think we can put our mid table league one position solely down to luck. Also I understand that any fan of any club will have their 'what if?' moments but we seem to have way more than most.

From Segers to Tevez, Hopkin to Ched - last minute goals, decisions out of our hands, cheats, last day disasters, saves of the century - everything seems to conspire against us at these crucial moments.

It's not just the big things either. Yesterday and Chessie for example, when we make a defensive mistake the opposition ALWAYS seem to score. I watch plenty of other games and highlights where teams miss chances, don't capitalise on mistakes, hit the woodwork numerous times - hell that's what we do - yet this season opposition strikeforces have been super clinical.

Again this is not a defence of our defence. Cloughs selections along with the Butler incident have been baffling at times and it is an area we need to improve vastly, but my, do we have some bloody shite luck as a football club.

And you don't make your own, that's a load of crap. Surely the law of averages say it's got to turn one day.
 



Should never have built the South Stand, we are cursed. And also in desperate need of a defence and someone who can actually miss the woodwork and get the ball in the net.
 
Bladepicker said:
And you don't make your own, that's a load of crap.
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Wrong. If you do the right things you will tip the odds in your favour and make good fortune more likely. That's common sense.

Our club makes bad decisions from top down, that's why we haven't had much luck. When you make things too difficult for yourself, you can't bank on good fortune to get you through.
 
Maybe my memory is failing me (it's been known), but I fail to understand the notion of bad luck. Isn't it the quality of decision making that contributes to whether you achieve more good decisions than poor ones? If we're going to focus on luck, aren't we then entering the landscape of lucky heather, crossed fingers, or magic circles? By discussing luck, as if it had any influence on what actually happens, aren't we subscribing to mind magic, voodoo, leprechauns, or whatever type of folklore we've grown up with?

If someone can offer an explanation for good or bad fortune I'll be happy to consider, but it seems to me that any reliance on something like luck can excuse poor decision making. A bit like that twit at Hull who thinks that changing the name of the club will make then luckier. If only it were that simple. All luck does is offer an excuse for those who aren't equipped to be in positions of influence.

Circumstance can work against you, no doubt about that, but then that's completely different from this thing called luck.....make note to self, stop rubbing two clothes pegs together on a Saturday afternoon at exactly 2.45 in an attempt to secure three points for United.
 
raul said:
Well that would be groovy if you didn't need to actually finish one place higher to get promoted.
Click to expand...
no one gets promoted in october , if you go back exactly 12 months leyton orient were further ahead than bristol city are now , so lets not take it its done and dusted
 
I think we've seen this 'luck' debate before.

I'd summarise it like this, using yesterday as an example:

We had the ball in the back of the net, ruled out offside (incorrectly I thought at the time).

We thought we had the ball over the line - no goal.

We had a very strong penalty shout - turned away.

We eventually scored twice through intense prolonged pressure after numerous chances and just forced the ball into the goal. They had two chances, scored both.

So what realistically could have been 3/4/5-0 was 2-2. They were fortunate to get their point, we were unfortunate to only get one.

Yes you can argue that had we switched on defensively for either of their chances we would have won the game. But I think the point here is that if a team such as MK Dons had a league game that followed the same pattern as yesterday's game, the perception is they'd have won 5-1 or 5-0, including a penalty. I can't help but feel inclined to subscribe to that view.

Going back to the 'luck' of some of the incidents from Bladepicker's OP:

Once there was a team who cheated their way to PL survival, and one team went down in their place (Sheffield United).

Once a team scored more goals than anyone else in the league and became the only team in FL history to amass 90 points and not win promotion (Sheffield United).

Once a team lost their star player and top scorer to a five year jail sentence, effectively costing them promotion (Sheffield United).

Once a world class goalkeeper made the best save of his career (considered one of the finest of all time) to preserve and FA semi lead. (Against Sheffield United).

Can any other club claim anything like this? What could we have done differently?
 
I think we are very lucky to be tenth in league one otherwise we could easily be in the bottom four with the way we give goals away.
 
If we'd had 2 quality strikers upfront yesterday we would have been 4-1 up before they scored their 2nd anyway.
I thought we played quite well,just the lack of firepower is holding us back at present as there was nobody in the box on numerous occasions.
A good target man is a priority.
 



If I'm not mistaken Gary Speed alluded to 'our luck' as a club. I think it was after we had battered Scunthorpe at home and still managed to lose by 4-0(?)

To add one more to Punk Blade's list : the not so bright Paddy Kenny deciding to take some cough medicine and miss the rest of the following season.
 
Patrick Suffaux said:
Wrong. If you do the right things you will tip the odds in your favour and make good fortune more likely. That's common sense.
Click to expand...

Don't agree - you can legislate and control certain things, eg if you have more attacks you will obviously have a chance of more penalties. However there is such a thing as pure luck that has no controlable influences to it.

Punk Blade said:
I think we've seen this 'luck' debate before.

I'd summarise it like this, using yesterday as an example:

We had the ball in the back of the net, ruled out offside (incorrectly I thought at the time).

We thought we had the ball over the line - no goal.

We had a very strong penalty shout - turned away.

We eventually scored twice through intense prolonged pressure after numerous chances and just forced the ball into the goal. They had two chances, scored both.

So what realistically could have been 3/4/5-0 was 2-2. They were fortunate to get their point, we were unfortunate to only get one.

Yes you can argue that had we switched on defensively for either of their chances we would have won the game. But I think the point here is that if a team such as MK Dons had a league game that followed the same pattern as yesterday's game, the perception is they'd have won 5-1 or 5-0, including a penalty. I can't help but feel inclined to subscribe to that view.
Click to expand...

Agree totally and it is what led me to post. Plenty of times I see sides make mistakes and not get punished. That hardly ever seems to happen to us. Ebery mistake seems to result in a goal (like against Orient) - if two teams make similar mistakes, but only one hets punished for them, that is luck.
 
itsinyerblood said:
Maybe my memory is failing me (it's been known), but I fail to understand the notion of bad luck. Isn't it the quality of decision making that contributes to whether you achieve more good decisions than poor ones? If we're going to focus on luck, aren't we then entering the landscape of lucky heather, crossed fingers, or magic circles? By discussing luck, as if it had any influence on what actually happens, aren't we subscribing to mind magic, voodoo, leprechauns, or whatever type of folklore we've grown up with?

If someone can offer an explanation for good or bad fortune I'll be happy to consider, but it seems to me that any reliance on something like luck can excuse poor decision making. A bit like that twit at Hull who thinks that changing the name of the club will make then luckier. If only it were that simple. All luck does is offer an excuse for those who aren't equipped to be in positions of influence.

Circumstance can work against you, no doubt about that, but then that's completely different from this thing called luck.....make note to self, stop rubbing two clothes pegs together on a Saturday afternoon at exactly 2.45 in an attempt to secure three points for United.
Click to expand...

I am not saying we are cursed or any such nonsense, only that in a lot of situations where a number of things have needed to go against us (lots out of our control) then more often than not things have gone against us.

We certainly don't help ourselves at times but boy do we have some bad luck.
 
Bladepicker said:
Don't agree - you can legislate and control certain things, eg if you have more attacks you will obviously have a chance of more penalties. However there is such a thing as pure luck that has no controlable influences to it
Click to expand...

Well of course but I think you're misinterpreting the meaning of "making your own luck"....it refers to the undeniable fact that your actions will largely determine how lucky you can expect to be. You will always have bad luck from time to time, that goes without saying as some things are indeed outside of your own influence but you will have more good luck than bad if you make the right decisions.

There's an element of truth to the saying and also an element of it that doesn't take uncontrollable variables into account. I don't accept that we have simply been unlucky as a club because that's the way our cards always seem to fall, that's rubbish. Yes we have been unlucky at times but a lot of time time we have blamed our poor direction, poor management and general poor decision making on bad luck and in most cases it hasn't been.
 
Patrick Suffaux said:
You will always have bad luck from time to time, that goes without saying as some things are indeed outside of your own influence but you will have more good luck than bad if you make the right decisions.

There's an element of truth to the saying and also an element of it that doesn't take uncontrollable variables into account.
Click to expand...

So if you accept that some facets of 'luck' are out of your control - then some people or teams will naturally be luckier than others irrespective of their actions.

We aren't in the state we are in because of bad luck and we have made some bad decisions, however we have had a run of things go against us that have been totally out of our control which have not helped us along the way. Would be nice for us to have a bit of 'good luck' this season.
 
Bladepicker said:
I am not saying we are cursed or any such nonsense, only that in a lot of situations where a number of things have needed to go against us (lots out of our control) then more often than not things have gone against us.

We certainly don't help ourselves at times but boy do we have some bad luck.
Click to expand...

This is a circular discussion. For me it's about the choices we make, either as players, manager, the club, the way an agent persuades his client to sign for this or that club, a trainer who has to gauge the exact level for a player to train etc, everything can be attributed to what decision is made by someone at some point. Of course we have no control over something like a broken limb or other injuries, but even these can be down to misjudgement by a player. So when you say that things go against us, even that comment alludes to some force or other, outside of personal responsibility, deciding what happens. If this is something that's commonly held to be true then the club might just as well employ a witchdoctor to oversee it's affairs.

I think cultures can develop where second rate decision making becomes the norm, where no one is prepared to say enough is enough. So luck becomes a convenient, but pointless, excuse used to cloud the issue of individual responsibility.
 
Bladepicker said:
So if you accept that some facets of 'luck' are out of your control - then some people or teams will naturally be luckier than others irrespective of their actions.

We aren't in the state we are in because of bad luck and we have made some bad decisions, however we have had a run of things go against us that have been totally out of our control which have not helped us along the way. Would be nice for us to have a bit of 'good luck' this season.
Click to expand...

No. Some teams appear to be luckier because they have been more proactive, made better decisions etc. They have acted on moments of bad luck by giving themselves a better chance next time.

Really think about it and consider how many of our failings are truly down to wretched luck and really down to bad decisions.....

Relegation from the Premier League - could argue bad luck, not entirely imo
Failure to go back up - selling best players, buying poor ones, appointing bad managers
Relegation from Championship - see one above
Failure to go back up - same again (but with bad luck in the first season)

Pattern emerging?
 
itsinyerblood said:
This is a circular discussion. For me it's about the choices we make, either as players, manager, the club, the way an agent persuades his client to sign for this or that club, a trainer who has to gauge the exact level for a player to train etc, everything can be attributed to what decision is made by someone at some point. Of course we have no control over something like a broken limb or other injuries, but even these can be down to misjudgement by a player. So when you say that things go against us, even that comment alludes to some force or other, outside of personal responsibility, deciding what happens. If this is something that's commonly held to be true then the club might just as well employ a witchdoctor to oversee it's affairs.

I think cultures can develop where second rate decision making becomes the norm, where no one is prepared to say enough is enough. So luck becomes a convenient, but pointless, excuse used to cloud the issue of individual responsibility.
Click to expand...

It's not a circular argument though, your very definition of luck is different to what I am talking about if you are taking about trying to control things via a witchdoctor. I am not saying luck is some mysterious paranormal force that than can be controlled, it is just arbitrary.

Your injury example is one where you can often control things with hoe you train or guard against injury as you say, but if one team has three of it's players legs broken by reckless challenges in say a three week period, I think you would agree that would be unlucky.

Similarly if I study all night to pick the winner of a horse race, try to control everything with preparation and think a 100/1 shot has a chance so put a quid on. someone else just sticks a pin in, picks the 100/1 shot and that wins - others would consider me lucky but in that instance I would say I made my own luck. With the pin bloke, I would consider that person has been 'lucky'. Luck in this instance when you can do nothing; to influence it. So employing a witch doctor wouldn't make a difference, there are just some things, lucky or otherwise you can do NOTHING about. In my 30 odd years seriously following United I seriously think we have had much more of these uncontrollable go against us than for us. It would be nice for things to turn round the other way.
 
Patrick Suffaux said:
No. Some teams appear to be luckier because they have been more proactive, made better decisions etc. They have acted on moments of bad luck by giving themselves a better chance next time.

Really think about it and consider how many of our failings are truly down to wretched luck and really down to bad decisions.....

Relegation from the Premier League - could argue bad luck, not entirely imo
Failure to go back up - selling best players, buying poor ones, appointing bad managers
Relegation from Championship - see one above
Failure to go back up - same again (but with bad luck in the first season)

Pattern emerging?
Click to expand...

The pattern is, in two of your instances, however poor our decisions or performances, had we had the 'luck; (the uncontrollable that could have gone either way) on our side then we wouldn't have gone down from the Prem and we would have been promoted from League One first time round.

QED while our poor decisions put us in a position where we relied on the uncontrollable going our way, had they gone our way (Specifically West Ham having points deducted, Tevez not been allowed to play the last three games - Ched not getting sent down, Wednesday not going on an unprecedented run at the end of the season) had we had just a smidgen of 'luck' in those instances we would not be were we are now. (we could be worse!!)

To say we have not made bad decisions is wrong and not what I am saying. But like in your thread above, you cannot argue that we have not had the rub of the green in any major situation or game.
 
Bladepicker said:
It's not a circular argument though, your very definition of luck is different to what I am talking about if you are taking about trying to control things via a witchdoctor. I am not saying luck is some mysterious paranormal force that than can be controlled, it is just arbitrary.

Your injury example is one where you can often control things with hoe you train or guard against injury as you say, but if one team has three of it's players legs broken by reckless challenges in say a three week period, I think you would agree that would be unlucky.

Similarly if I study all night to pick the winner of a horse race, try to control everything with preparation and think a 100/1 shot has a chance so put a quid on. someone else just sticks a pin in, picks the 100/1 shot and that wins - others would consider me lucky but in that instance I would say I made my own luck. With the pin bloke, I would consider that person has been 'lucky'. Luck in this instance when you can do nothing; to influence it. So employing a witch doctor wouldn't make a difference, there are just some things, lucky or otherwise you can do NOTHING about. In my 30 odd years seriously following United I seriously think we have had much more of these uncontrollable go against us than for us. It would be nice for things to turn round the other way.
Click to expand...

If you're suggesting that luck is used as a metaphor, I have no problem with that. To use your analogy, it's the 'otherwise' that has relevance. And because there are some things outside of our control, the use of 'luck' as a metaphor makes perfect sense, but that's all it is. If we were to have three players who broke their legs in the space of consecutive weeks, then we'd certainly need to take stock, but I for one wouldn't be wondering about whether we're a 'lucky' or unlucky' club, I'd exercise my capacity for rational decision making and realise that this won't continue ad infinitum.
 
We can make all the best decisions in the world, and we still won't be able to control inept referees and corrupt football authorities.

Not sure what category to put the Ched thing in.
 
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