MayorOJC
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- Jun 17, 2016
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Bit too much doom and gloom on here recently (mostly from me), so thought I'd throw some stats in to suggest that the sky isn't falling down and we're (maybe) closer to being a competent side than we think.
We have the third-highest average possession in the league this season (59.9%). While we're not doing much effective with it so far, there is a strong positive correlation between average possession and total points at the end of the season.
We are joint-second for touches in the opposition box this season (95), only beaten by Coventry, who got a very healthy helping hand from QPR at the weekend.
We have a better xG than 13 other teams (4.2). While this is down to poor finishing so far, over the course of a 46-game season, actual goals tends to trend towards the xG. Middlesborough have scored 5 more goals than us, despite having an xG of just 2.8!
We have a lower xGA (4.0) than 10 other teams, including league leaders Stoke (4.5) and title favourites Southampton (5.0) and Leicester City (4.7). This suggests our opponents have been very clinical in their finishing.
I'm not saying we've started well - we've been crap. But the stats suggest we're not playing like a bottom of the league team, more like a mid-table team. We're strongly underperforming both our xG and xGA at a rate that's statistically unlikely to continue. Every now and then expectations are off over a longer time-frame, (Burnley conceding 16 goals last year from a 40.8 xGA was a 1 in 10,000 freak outcome, for example), but it's rare.
Regardless of incomings or changes in approach; assuming the players don't let their heads drop, don't be surprised if we start picking some points up over the next few games.
On the other end of the spectrum, Stoke, Middlesborough and Bristol City are all riding their luck. Expect them to drop off.
*In before "football is played on the grass not on spreadsheets", "xBollocks", etc. etc.
We have the third-highest average possession in the league this season (59.9%). While we're not doing much effective with it so far, there is a strong positive correlation between average possession and total points at the end of the season.
We are joint-second for touches in the opposition box this season (95), only beaten by Coventry, who got a very healthy helping hand from QPR at the weekend.
We have a better xG than 13 other teams (4.2). While this is down to poor finishing so far, over the course of a 46-game season, actual goals tends to trend towards the xG. Middlesborough have scored 5 more goals than us, despite having an xG of just 2.8!
We have a lower xGA (4.0) than 10 other teams, including league leaders Stoke (4.5) and title favourites Southampton (5.0) and Leicester City (4.7). This suggests our opponents have been very clinical in their finishing.
I'm not saying we've started well - we've been crap. But the stats suggest we're not playing like a bottom of the league team, more like a mid-table team. We're strongly underperforming both our xG and xGA at a rate that's statistically unlikely to continue. Every now and then expectations are off over a longer time-frame, (Burnley conceding 16 goals last year from a 40.8 xGA was a 1 in 10,000 freak outcome, for example), but it's rare.
Regardless of incomings or changes in approach; assuming the players don't let their heads drop, don't be surprised if we start picking some points up over the next few games.
On the other end of the spectrum, Stoke, Middlesborough and Bristol City are all riding their luck. Expect them to drop off.
*In before "football is played on the grass not on spreadsheets", "xBollocks", etc. etc.
