Gap between Premier League and Championship

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To much time on my hands and wondering if the data actually supported the theory that the gap between Championship and Premier League is getting bigger.

If this was the case you would expect all 3 promoted teams to come tumbling back down on a regular basis, in fact that has only happened once in 97/98 Barnsley, Bolton and Palace.

So if this is not the case then you would expect the 4 bottom clubs to get less points every year or the gap between the top 4 and the bottom 4 to get bigger.

The black bar shows the points for the top 4 teams and the red bar shows the points for the bottom 4 teams every year since the EPL dropped to 20 teams.

View attachment 173781

Conclusion, the trend lines show a slight increase in points for the top 4 and a slight decrease for bottom 4 but its not significant and not linier, make of it what you will.

I'm not sure why you don't think it's significant and only slight.
25 year ago the bottom 4 got half as many points as the top 4.
Now it's approaching only getting a third as many points. That's a huge change and clearly shows the gulf between top and bottom 4 is widening alarmingly.
Can't be good for the game.
 

Having watched another round of games on MOTD, it's increasingly obvious that teams who win games almost always have players who show a significant level of skill, composure and decision making, experience, determination and strength.

Skilful players - whether a defender makes a perfectly-timed tackle, or midfielder skips through challenges to create a chance for a forward, or a striker who takes not just easy chances, but difficult ones too. The teams down the bottom lack defenders with sufficient skill to compete against skilful midfielders and attackers. They lack midfielders who can successfully run at defences and forwards who can take chances when they come along.

Composure and decision making - how many times do we see defenders from bottom teams give up possession far too easily? It could be argued they don't have the skill to do what they're trying to do, whether it's trying to control the ball in the first place, trying to dribble out, or finding a team mate with a simple pass, but composure is also needed. So many players from teams who will struggle in the Prem cannot handle the pressure of being pressed, or sometimes even approached slowly! Composure doesn't necessarily mean creating a piece of magic under pressure to clear the decks when defending, it means having the calmness to asses the situation and act accordingly. That might be to take the ball away from the attacker, it might be a first time pass back to the keeper, it might be to put it into row Z, but the correct choice under pressure needs to be made, and all too often isn't. When attacking, picking out the right pass, taking the shot early...there's loads of examples of where composure is lacking in struggling teams.

Experience - established teams have established Prem players. Rarely do Champ and lower league players take to it instantly. It's faster, stronger and much more difficult to adapt for players not to used to the pace of the game and the level of players they will face.

Determination and strength - Struggling teams get 'bullied' off the ball. Sometimes possession is lost because of a lack of skill, a lack of composure, making the wrong decision, but often players are just knocked of the ball. It honestly seems like it's men against boys, dads v lads, such is the gap. Every week we see big, powerful, athletic, strong skilful players rob the game of it's competitiveness. They have a handicap system in horse racing to try and level things up, but no such thing exists in football, and boty does it show.

Where does this leave us?
In need of too many unaffordable replacements who have the skill, composure, decision making, experience, determination and strength, unless... unless Hecky or someone else can work miracles with our current squad.
I do believe that if we went down, and here's about the only positive having such a gap, that we will have no problem with this squad returning quickly, but to what?!
Returning quickly? Not with this squad,methinks.
 
I'm not sure why you don't think it's significant and only slight.
25 year ago the bottom 4 got half as many points as the top 4.
Now it's approaching only getting a third as many points. That's a huge change and clearly shows the gulf between top and bottom 4 is widening alarmingly.
Can't be good for the game.

Its taken me so long to get back to this thread, I had to re-read to remember what I was on about.

You are quite correct in your comment the trend is significant and alarming, in my defence, I’m used to looking at much smaller sample sizes of a few weeks or months, where the shallow trend line is nothing to worry about.

I never considered that the sample was 28 years so 2 shallow trend lines moving away from each other represents quite a big change.

Further to this, and I won’t bore you with 4 graphs, if you split the data into 4, 7 year samples, the biggest change has been in the last 7 years.

Covid?
 
Well, we’re confirmed as the first promoted team to be sent back down.

Leicester confirmed as the first relegated team to go back up.

It’s going as expected with the parachute teams.

Ipswich can still mess up and let Leeds make it 2/2 and leave it open to 3/3 in the Play Offs.

We’d love to make Forest sweat but it’s still looking odds on for 3/3 for the promoted teams.

So the gulf is real and not getting smaller.
 
Well, we’re confirmed as the first promoted team to be sent back down.

Leicester confirmed as the first relegated team to go back up.

It’s going as expected with the parachute teams.

Ipswich can still mess up and let Leeds make it 2/2 and leave it open to 3/3 in the Play Offs.

We’d love to make Forest sweat but it’s still looking odds on for 3/3 for the promoted teams.

So the gulf is real and not getting smaller.
I think we’ll buck the trend next season quite comfortably, if Luton lose some of the 1 year deal players then they might too.
 
Another good vid

I’ve wondered for a while now whether it’ll prove to be a huge sliding doors moment in our clubs history when Hecky was replaced with Slav. I feel if we’d gone straight back up with Hecky, the Prince would have sold and we’d have invested and potentially remained in the prem, or at least had a good chance, whereas I genuinely hold little hope of that now

 
Wolves are likely to finish 4th bottom. If they were in the championship with their current squad they’d romp it. Their squad is better than Leeds, 11 is better than ours & unfortunately that’s how big the difference is.

We didn’t capitalise on the survival 20/21 and as we’ve all mentioned the recruitment was poor. That was our opportunity to build and establish like Forest, Brentford etc have all done.
 
If the 3 promoted sides go down (and they will) then those same 17 clubs will get stronger and stronger. With PSR and all other restraints to stay up now you need one of them to implode or you need to do a Forest. Spend spend spend and gamble that your punishment is only -4 pts and there are 3 worse teams accruing points below you
 
When not if the bottom 3 currently are relegated you'd expect the teams just above them to be vulnerable relegation candidates the following season .
Those teams are - Man utd , Spurs, Everton West Ham and Wolves.
All of who are miles away from the us, Leeds or Burnley .
All would have to make 6 or 7 quality signings to have a fighting chance which could be £100m .
It's a massive ask for a side to survive that 1st season.
You really do have to have a couple of clubs completely capitulate or have huge points reductions.
Still like to see us have another go though
 
If the 3 promoted sides go down (and they will) then those same 17 clubs will get stronger and stronger. With PSR and all other restraints to stay up now you need one of them to implode or you need to do a Forest. Spend spend spend and gamble that your punishment is only -4 pts and there are 3 worse teams accruing points below you
The route to a side from the promoted sides staying up is:

  • An established name from the 17 have an absolutely horrendous season OR is found guilty of some major financial problems and are deducted 9+ points; AND
  • One of the promoted team has an outstanding season (and I'm not talking 9th - I'm talking scraping to 8 wins and a few draws)
The only other way is if Man C end up with a points deduction that puts them in the relegation zone next year. But I suspect even that is a false hope.
 

Another good vid

I’ve wondered for a while now whether it’ll prove to be a huge sliding doors moment in our clubs history when Hecky was replaced with Slav. I feel if we’d gone straight back up with Hecky, the Prince would have sold and we’d have invested and potentially remained in the prem, or at least had a good chance, whereas I genuinely hold little hope of that now


He isn`t wrong - I hold out hope that a club up there is so horrendously mismanaged that they offer a chance to the three promoted sides, but its a slim hope.
 
When not if the bottom 3 currently are relegated you'd expect the teams just above them to be vulnerable relegation candidates the following season .
Those teams are - Man utd , Spurs, Everton West Ham and Wolves.
All of who are miles away from the us, Leeds or Burnley .
All would have to make 6 or 7 quality signings to have a fighting chance which could be £100m .
It's a massive ask for a side to survive that 1st season.
You really do have to have a couple of clubs completely capitulate or have huge points reductions.
Still like to see us have another go though
Man city having 115 charges...👀
 
The route to a side from the promoted sides staying up is:

  • An established name from the 17 have an absolutely horrendous season OR is found guilty of some major financial problems and are deducted 9+ points; AND
  • One of the promoted team has an outstanding season (and I'm not talking 9th - I'm talking scraping to 8 wins and a few draws)
The only other way is if Man C end up with a points deduction that puts them in the relegation zone next year. But I suspect even that is a false hope.
If City did get a points deduction, some has said it will be this season....so finishing 18th might be handy!
 
If City did get a points deduction, some has said it will be this season....so finishing 18th might be handy!
I honestly think Man City would need to get more than a points deduction, let’s face it they could have 30 points deducted and still comfortably stay up
 
If Man City don't get at least a 115pt deduction (next season), or at least enough to ensure they're relegated anyway, then I'll be incredibly disappointed.

If you can't play fair you shouldn't be allowed to play. We teach kids things like that when they're very young. Cannot let Man City get away with it in front of the eyes of the whole world.
 
I honestly think Man City would need to get more than a points deduction, let’s face it they could have 30 points deducted and still comfortably stay up
If Man City don't get at least a 115pt deduction (next season), or at least enough to ensure they're relegated anyway, then I'll be incredibly disappointed.

If you can't play fair you shouldn't be allowed to play. We teach kids things like that when they're very young. Cannot let Man City get away with it in front of the eyes of the whole world.
I suspect they will end up with a points deduction specifically designed to not be enough to relegate them - probably 30 points as suggested.
 
I see Chelsea have paid something like 45 million for a 17 year old which is barmy but actions like that does not give a promoted side much of a chance of competing . Clubs coming up would have to do what Forest did and spend a fortune just to survive ,even then Forest were lucky to cling on in the first season . I think they bought 22 new players which is well beyond most clubs reach . I much prefer the Championship but I realise we need the cash to thrive ,also it upsets our friends in sheff 6 when we come back down with our parachute payments ha ha . The gap between the top of the Championship and the prem is getting wider and wider every year no matter how good your manager is it is a gap that very few clubs can fill .The Prem is all but a closed shop now ,when you look at Man u and other massive clubs getting left behind there is not much hope for the rest of us . Investing in your scouting dept is a must to have any chance of survival along with a top Academy which thankfully we have ,need to get to Cat 1 and maybe we will have a chance of developing our own mega stars .
 
I see Chelsea have paid something like 45 million for a 17 year old which is barmy but actions like that does not give a promoted side much of a chance of competing . Clubs coming up would have to do what Forest did and spend a fortune just to survive ,even then Forest were lucky to cling on in the first season . I think they bought 22 new players which is well beyond most clubs reach . I much prefer the Championship but I realise we need the cash to thrive ,also it upsets our friends in sheff 6 when we come back down with our parachute payments ha ha . The gap between the top of the Championship and the prem is getting wider and wider every year no matter how good your manager is it is a gap that very few clubs can fill .The Prem is all but a closed shop now ,when you look at Man u and other massive clubs getting left behind there is not much hope for the rest of us . Investing in your scouting dept is a must to have any chance of survival along with a top Academy which thankfully we have ,need to get to Cat 1 and maybe we will have a chance of developing our own mega stars .

I always wonder about the Cat 1 status, yes it would be nice to be recognised as a "top academy" but other than a bit of additional funding and resources. I guess your net is spread a bit wider and there is less chance of players being poached but other than that, it still requires the funding being pumped in. Even without Cat 1 status we have produced international quality players especially defensively. It's a difficult balance as we need investment in the squad, academy investment and eventually stadium and infrastructure improvements whilst trying to be competitive in which ever league we are in. We either accept every other year or so to be a shit show in the Premier League whilst that year is spent on academy investment, squad investment needs constant box ticking but depending on priorities of stadium development/improvement it is when you do that. The ideal time would have been with the lower attendances of League 1 but we didn't have the cash.
 
The dilemma/problem is running a Cat 1 academy is very expensive and it takes a few years for players to graduate to be first team squad player never mind regular players of EPL standard. If we get prompted this season we need to bring in mature players of EPL standard to try and keep us up next season. I get that the Cat 1 academy is a long term investment which should pay dividends but wont help us in short or even medium term. Query are we better spending the money on a recruitment system like Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth? I am not sure any of those have a Cat 1 academy? Our current Cat 2 academy has and still.is producing some really good players. Blaster, Peck, Seriki, Brooks, Marsh and behind them others like One etc but will they become EPL standard and will they be in good enough to keep us up next season?
 
A bit like us last season, seen a few people questioning why Ipswich have signed the better championship players rather than established premier league players, like we did with Hamer and Archer.

Simple answer, teams like Ipswich will have a harder time convincing established PL players to sign for them, as they were always going to be in a relegation battle, the better championship players who want to try and make the step up are always willing to join promoted teams.

If we go up, we're going to have the same problem convincing established PL players to sign for us and play in a relegation battle, unless we offer them silly wages and/or relegation clauses which would guarantee they be sold upon relegation.
 
A bit like us last season, seen a few people questioning why Ipswich have signed the better championship players rather than established premier league players, like we did with Hamer and Archer.

Simple answer, teams like Ipswich will have a harder time convincing established PL players to sign for them, as they were always going to be in a relegation battle, the better championship players who want to try and make the step up are always willing to join promoted teams.

If we go up, we're going to have the same problem convincing established PL players to sign for us and play in a relegation battle, unless we offer them silly wages and/or relegation clauses which would guarantee they be sold upon relegation.

The only established Premier League players that are likely to sign for a promoted teams are those that don’t play regularly, so it’s still a strategy that will make it difficult to stay up.

I suppose there will be no one recruitment strategy to follow. It’s just a case of identifying good players (obvious I know), whether they’re from the Championship, Premier League or abroad, you’ve got to get lucky that the majority will be hits and not misses.
 
It's a herculean task to stay up now. The dingle on that video nails some of the reasons but quite honestly there are more:

Promotion is not a free promotion payment + two years guaranteed parachute money to use as you will. It's money to pay your now doubled wage bill (this is before you've signed a player), your promotion bonuses (circa 10-20 million), and to make your mandatory ground improvements that entitles you to play in the PL.. If you have an owner without a bottomless pit it's also money to pay back the stake they've been gambling on promotion for an indeterminate amount of time.

Prize money per league position has accentuated the gap. Iirc it's circa 2m per position. The beauty of the PL hithertofore is that the TV money has been distributed evenly. Football Socialism: far more eyes are on Man Utd than Sheffield Utd but we're distributing equally so they have a hope of competing. In Spain it's the opposite, and in other countries it's the free market: more eyes = more money. This is what made the brand what it was:- it was uniquely competitive as it had these wealth rebalancing mechanisms. Everything else was based on the free market of corse so the bigger clubs still had an advantage, but not so much that a lot of matches became borderline unwatchable.

Add the prize money per position to the above and the club finishing top earns 30-40 million more than those at the bottom. This reinforces the hegemony.of these clubs and makes matches more boring and results and league positions more predictable. It's an upwards transfer of wealth.

The rise of European competitions over domestic cups:

We have more games, more competitions and more money for the clubs in Europe. Liverpool have earned ove £100 million for exiting the CL at the quarter final stage. The other clubs get similar financial boons. The domestic cup competitions that worked as a redistributive tool throughout the pyramid have had games taken away and effectively given to the European competitions and mid and post season tours. A Super League by the back door you might say. There are 6-8 PL clubs that are now on a European fiscal pedestal. They have deeper squads. This is an upwards transfer of wealth and a destructor of competition

Academy/Elite Player Performance Plan (EPPP):

This legislation allowed the established Premier League clubs that could afford the overheads of a category 1 academy to take all the best youngsters for a song from those that couldn't. Fewer and fewer clubs go up with top homegrown players or get revenues for academy player sales that allow them to compete. A lot of them have closed their academies or downgraded them as the cost outweighs the benefits. Another upward transfer in wealth.

Rule changes:

Game management/time management: It's become more difficult for the underdog as it's all added on in the PL now. In any previous season the Blades beat Spurs away last season. You give the better sides more time to beat the weaker sides in any league and they win a higher % of games. Upwards transfer.

Five sub rule: The more fresh, elite players you allow established PL clubs to bring on against newly promoted clubs the more games they'll win. Wilder was absolutely right; Klopp was wrong. A slight leveller in the PL was the European schedule. These clubs now have huge squads and five elite subs to kill you (instead of three) which has largely ameliorated the small schedule problem they faced.

Handball rule: If handball is given for almost anything then the team that puts the ball in the opponents box more will get more penalties. This is invariably not the newly promoted club. More penalties = more goals = more wins = more points. Another upwards transfer

The proposed corners for Keepers time wasting will go the same way as the above. The newly promoted clubs time waste more because they need to.

I slightly disagree with the Barnsley lad about playing style. Football is a game in which variables are being removed: bad/unique pitches, close impactful crowd influence (modern stadia), weather having an imp
act, referee and linesman influencing results (controversial but this is what VAR is at least designed to do).


I believe the pitch, weather and stadia have coalesced into a more homogeneous playing style. It has made possible what wasn't possible ( due to the unique venues and opponents) as you now have a bowling green almost everywhere. Stadiums that are designed to keep out the elements and get the fans and the hostility away from the players. It's manifested in more passing, forwards and backwards transitions and a premium on athleticism and technical ability. All clubs buy into it including the newly promoted ones. Forest had a blank cheque book and that's the bulk of their acquisitions.
 
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It's a herculean task to stay up now. The dingle on that video nails some of the reasons but quite honestly there are more:

Promotion is not a free promotion payment + two years guaranteed parachute money to use as you will. It's money to pay your now doubled wage bill (this is before you've signed a player), your promotion bonuses (circa 10-20 million), and to make your mandatory ground improvements that entitles you to play in the PL.. If you have an owner without a bottomless pit it's also money to pay back the stake they've been gambling on promotion for an indeterminate amount of time.

Prize money per league position has accentuated the gap. Iirc it's circa 2m per position. The beauty of the PL hithertofore is that the TV money has been distributed evenly. Football Socialism: far more eyes are on Man Utd than Sheffield Utd but we're distributing equally so they have a hope of competing. In Spain it's the opposite, and in other countries it's the free market: more eyes = more money. This is what made the brand what it was:- it was uniquely competitive as it had these wealth rebalancing mechanisms. Everything else was based on the free market of corse so the bigger clubs still had an advantage, but not so much that a lot of matches became borderline unwatchable.

Add the prize money per position to the above and the club finishing top earns 30-40 million more than those at the bottom. This reinforces the hegemony.of these clubs and makes matches more boring and results and league positions more predictable. It's an upwards transfer of wealth.

The rise of European competitions over domestic cups:

We have more games, more competitions and more money for the clubs in Europe. Liverpool have earned ove £100 million for exiting the CL at the quarter final stage. The other clubs get similar financial boons. The domestic cup competitions that worked as a redistributive tool throughout the pyramid have had games taken away and effectively given to the European competitions and mid and post season tours. A Super League by the back door you might say. There are 6-8 PL clubs that are now on a European fiscal pedestal. They have deeper squads. This is an upwards transfer of wealth and a destructor of competition

Academy/Elite Player Performance Plan (EPPP):

This legislation allowed the established Premier League clubs that could afford the overheads of a category 1 academy to take all the best youngsters for a song from those that couldn't. Fewer and fewer clubs go up with top homegrown players or get revenues for academy player sales that allow them to compete. A lot of them have closed their academies or downgraded them as the cost outweighs the benefits. Another upward transfer in wealth.

Rule changes:

Game management/time management: It's become more difficult for the underdog as it's all added on in the PL now. In any previous season the Blades beat Spurs away last season. You give the better sides more time to beat the weaker sides in any league and they win a higher % of games. Upwards transfer.

Five sub rule: The more fresh, elite players you allow established PL clubs to bring on against newly promoted clubs the more games they'll win. Wilder was absolutely right; Klopp was wrong. A slight leveller in the PL was the European schedule. These clubs now have huge squads and five elite subs to kill you (instead of three) which has largely ameliorated the small schedule problem they faced.

Handball rule: If handball is given for almost anything then the team that puts the ball in the opponents box more will get more penalties. This is invariably not the newly promoted club. More penalties = more goals = more wins = more points. Another upwards transfer

The proposed corners for Keepers time wasting will go the same way as the above. The newly promoted clubs time waste more because they need to.

I slightly disagree with the Barnsley lad about playing style. Football is a game in which variables are being removed: bad/unique pitches, close impactful crowd influence (modern stadia), weather having an imp
act, referee and linesman influencing results (controversial but this is what VAR is at least designed to do).


I believe the pitch, weather and stadia have coalesced into a more homogeneous playing style. It has made possible what wasn't possible ( due to the unique venues and opponents) as you now have a bowling green almost everywhere. Stadiums that are designed to keep out the elements and get the fans and the hostility away from the players. It's manifested in more passing, forwards and backwards transitions and a premium on athleticism and technical ability. All clubs buy into it including the newly promoted ones. Forest had a blank cheque book and that's the bulk of their acquisitions.
Is this why our new owners will be investing in a promoted SUFC, involving greater financial input and technical expertise next season?l

Speaking of ground and pitch improvements. If the club at S6 ever get promoted, they will probably need to borrow ALL the money from PL TV revenue, just to make their ground and pitch acceptable?
 
Is this why our new owners will be investing in a promoted SUFC, involving greater financial input and technical expertise next season?l

Speaking of ground and pitch improvements. If the club at S6 ever get promoted, they will probably need to borrow ALL the money from PL TV revenue, just to make their ground and pitch acceptable?

It's hard to know their exact plan as they haven't spoken much. What we do know from the tidbits we have is that they're committed to the Cat one academy project (this is outside FFP/PSR calculations). This can help us produce and keep more youngsters through the age groups and sell or play them in the first team. If you hope to bridge that gap it seems a no brainer to me.

We know that they are developing and using analytics and AI to sign players. This has been crucial at Brighton, Brentford and Forest. The first two are getting incredible value for money. I haven't heard anything about developing BL in order to hopefully grow crowds and get a bigger yield from better corporate facilities.

How deep their pockets are remains to be seen. There does seem to be a lot of talent from various industries but it's impossible to guess how they'll go about things if we go up. Their initial statement that they believe they can consolidate SUFC as a PL club is obviously very ballsy.
 

If Man City don't get at least a 115pt deduction (next season), or at least enough to ensure they're relegated anyway, then I'll be incredibly disappointed.

If you can't play fair you shouldn't be allowed to play. We teach kids things like that when they're very young. Cannot let Man City get away with it in front of the eyes of the whole world.
The whole world isn't fair mate never has been.
 

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