Matchday 34 Graphs Charts and QPR Prediction – And Then There Were 2

[ucandomagic]

Graph 1 shows the positions of the Top 4 after Matchday 34, and illustrates the reality that, in all probability, Leeds are going to win the League and Sunderland are not going to be Top 2.

Graph 1:



So, unless things change – the crucial race over the last 12 games is between Blades and Burnley. Burnley are 2 points behind but, with a much better goal difference, so they are effectively only 1 point behind, because if they gain 2 points on us they will be ahead.

Chart 1 shows Blades and Burnley results to date, and the games we both have still to play.

Chart 1:



Graph 2 illustrates a set of very realistic forecast results to the end of the season that sees both Blades and Burney end on 94 points – which would mean that Burnley beat us to second place on goal difference.

Graph 2:


Unless anything changes Graph 2 is what I will focus on for the rest of the season.


In terms of XG stuff the Leeds game XG was

Blades 1.3 – Leeds 1.2
Enough has been said about the game – but when Firpo scored Holding should have been straight on – and Cannon, in exerting any real pressure off the ball, is a total joke.

Our next game tomorrow is QPR at “MATRADE” Loftus Road.

QPR have scored 26 goals in their 17 home games with an XG of 21.7 and conceded 22 with an XGA of 19.3. Blades have scored 23 in 17 away games with an XG of 20.8 and conceded 13 with an XGA of 20.

So the stats would probably suggest 1-1, with 2-1 Blades being the next most likely result.

For those interested, I’ve put the full footballxg.com table at the bottom of the post. With the 2 point deduction applied we would be 7th in this table, below Norwich.

Full Footballxg.com Table: -



UTB & Slava Ukraini!

 

[jono_t2000]

Thanks ucandomagic

Do have to take aim at this tho.. " are 2 points behind but, with a much better goal difference, so they are effectively only 1 point behind." .... say wutttt

I think you've become a bit muddled, if we had a better goal difference than them it would effectively be a 3 point gap as them gaining 2 points would not be enough, but as they have a better goal difference it's still 2 points they have to catch up.

I guarantee you if they only catch up 1 point on us, they won't be overtaking us

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

Brilliant GraphMan.

I understand what you're saying - if they get 2 points more than us then they are ahead - so we can only regard it as a 1 point lead - but more precisely you could have said that we have a 1.5 point lead - because if they gain 1 we are ahead and if they gain 2 they are ahead.

Anyway,let's just stuff the bastards on April 21st and send Parker home to sulk in his ballet dancer-tight trousers!

UTB & FTP!

 

[mattbianco1]

Considering Burnley have only conceded 9 all season. It's difficult to see how we can pull in the 11 goal swing. We have to beat them!

 

[brownblade]

Considering Burnley have only conceded 9 all season. It's difficult to see how we can pull in the 11 goal swing. We have to beat them!

A draw at Burnley might be a fantastic result, but it's too early to say I guess. Hopefully we're miles clear of them and have total freedom at Turf Moor.

I think it could go either way. Could Burnley draw 0-0 tonight? Yes, it's perfectly possible. Would that hurt their morale as well as points tally? Possibly.

 

[mattbianco1]

A draw at Burnley might be a fantastic result, but it's too early to say I guess. Hopefully we're miles clear of them and have total freedom at Turf Moor.

I think it could go either way. Could Burnley draw 0-0 tonight? Yes, it's perfectly possible. Would that hurt their morale as well as points tally? Possibly.

They have West Brom in midweek next week too. 2 draw specialists going head-to-head.

We need to win our next 2 home games to keep the pressure right up.

 

[Cappy]

Only just catching up on some threads. Nice work as always

 

[Selly]

Considering Burnley have only conceded 9 all season. It's difficult to see how we can pull in the 11 goal swing. We have to beat them!

I agree.

The only way that we turn that GD around is if Burnley get thrashed a couple of times, or we hand out a couple of thrashings

The first seems unlikely given their defence - and the latter also seems unlikely given we aren`t a high scoring team.

And if they are losing/drawing and we are winning (which is the other way that we can catch up the GD) then GD isn`t going to be an issue.