10 more wins

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Out of the 6 games remaining for Luton & boro they each have to play each other and also play a playoff team/play off chasing team with Luton playing Blackburn and boro playing Norwich. The gap is going to open up for at least one of the teams although no gimmes in any Championship games. 12 points could be a max total for one of them at very best the max they can one can get is 18 points to the end of the season. Win the game in hand we are 11 points clear. I still think we need more than 2 wins though. Probably looking at 4/5 to be comfy. Ideally could do with not going into final day of the season on one of those around the ground cams, where they split between who is going up at any one time. Seal it off with 2 games to go would be handy too least then don't have Warnock to worry about.
 
Stu_Blade said:
Out of the 6 games remaining for Luton & boro they each have to play each other and also play a playoff team/play off chasing team with Luton playing Blackburn and boro playing Norwich. The gap is going to open up for at least one of the teams although no gimmes in any Championship games. 12 points could be a max total for one of them at very best the max they can one can get is 18 points to the end of the season. Win the game in hand we are 11 points clear. I still think we need more than 2 wins though. Probably looking at 4/5 to be comfy. Ideally could do with not going into final day of the season on one of those around the ground cams, where they split between who is going up at any one time. Seal it off with 2 games to go would be handy too least then don't have Warnock to worry about.
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Luton have 68pts with 6 games left. They can get a maximum 18pts in their remaining games.
68 + 18 = 86.
We already have 76pts.
86 - 76 = 10.
Luton can only get 10 more points than what we currently have.
Winning 5 more games (15pts) is more than 'comfy' 😁😁
 
HVR said:
Luton have 68pts with 6 games left. They can get a maximum 18pts in their remaining games.
68 + 18 = 86.
We already have 76pts.
86 - 76 = 10.
Luton can only get 10 more points than what we currently have.
Winning 5 more games (15pts) is more than 'comfy' 😁😁
Click to expand...
Or you could say that over a huge game sample size of 40 matches Boro would pro-rata get 78 and Luton 79, and that is being massively generous with the rounding up.

In which case, unless they are about to start playing like galacticos, winning against Cardiff and Bristol City at home is likely to post a total that they won’t reach. Add in the factor that they’ll be cutting one another’s throats the Monday following the cup final and we’ll probably look back and be wondering what the fuss was all about!
 
Champagneblade said:
Or you could say that over a huge game sample size of 40 matches Boro would pro-rata get 78 and Luton 79, and that is being massively generous with the rounding up.

In which case, unless they are about to start playing like galacticos, winning against Cardiff and Bristol City at home is likely to post a total that they won’t reach. Add in the factor that they’ll be cutting one another’s throats the Monday following the cup final and we’ll probably look back and be wondering what the fuss was all about!
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Win a shit load of games, build up a massive gap - so massive, that when you lose a few, the teams below can't catch you.
You never Know. This 'Season Plan' that Hecky invented could catch on and be a template for other managers! 🤔😁
Note: Doesn't work for Cup Campaigns because you will get knocked out if you lose one match.
 



11 points needed as it stands to be mathematically promoted. As mentioned above, each time we get a point or a win, and the other two drop points then that target reduces. Let's try and start with 3 lovely points added to the total on Monday night. No reason why we can't win.
 
JJBlade said:
Boro can get a maximum of 85 points with six wins.
Luton can get to 86 with six wins

8 or 9 points will do it for us, maybe even 6
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Can’t post it but using the Date Range function on the TWTD website, since Carrick took over at Boro on 24th October, they’ve amassed 50 points in 23 games, exactly the same as us. Luton have played a game more and picked up 44 points.

It’s hard to see either of them overhauling an 8/9 point gap in 6 games unless we have a collapse of Oinkeresque proportions, which is possible, but not very likely.
 
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9 points for me.

6 points isn't enough. With only 6 games to go for the other two it's not that unlikely they win the vast majority as it's a smaller sample size than the past 40 games
 
Trigger Blade said:
Can’t post it but using the Date Range function on the TWTD website, since Carrick took over at Boro on 24th October, they’ve amassed 50 points in 23 games, exactly the same as us. Luton have played a game more and picked up 44 points.

It’s hard to see either of them overhauling an 8/9 point gap in 6 games unless we have a collapse of Oinkeresque proportions, which is possible, but not very likely.
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Totally agree. Yesterday the Carrick love in continued with them posting a graphic about how be ranked as number 1 manager in the league based on his points tally since taking over and yet, the reality is as you state above. To listen to most of the pundits, Southgate's successor is a done deal 😡
 
A point on Monday and winning the next 2 home matches pretty much seals it for me.

Think that breaks the spirit of the other 2 and they've got to start thinking about planning for the play offs at some point so will they be going hell for leather trying to claw back a 2% chance of catching us when they could rest players for the potential extra 3 matches they'll have at the end of the season.
 
Allowing for no major goal swing,
If Luton or Boro go P6 W6 D0 L0 and we go P7 W3 D1 L3 we are up.
If Luton or Boro go P6 W5 D1 L0 and we go P7 W2 D2 L3 we are up.
If Luton or Boro go P6 W5 D0 L1 and we go P7 W2 D1 L4 or W1 D4 L2 we are up.
If Luton or Boro go P6 W4 D2 L0 and we go P7 W2 D0 L5 or W1 D3 L3 we are up.
If Luton or Boro go P6 W4 D1 L1 and we go P7 W1 D2 L4 or W0 D5 L2 we are up.
 
GreasyChipBeattie said:
If Luton or Boro go P6 W5 D0 L1 and we go P7 W2 D1 L4 or W1 D4 L2 we are up.
If Luton or Boro go P6 W4 D2 L0 and we go P7 W2 D0 L5 or W1 D3 L3 we are up.
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These two scenarios show why a point on Monday is quite valuable.

It turns 4 wins and 2 draws into 5 wins and a loss.

Every point we get makes their task that little bit harder.
 
In reality and simplistically if Luton or Middlesbrough lose another game we only need 2 wins and a draw, with our 7 remaining.

With them both playing each other, some tricky fixtures and a game in hand. I’m going with 83 points to secure promotion.
 
luton max is 86 with 6 wins
boro is 85 with 6 wins but a draw when they meet drops it by 2 points 84 and 83
then we will need just 8 points to be sure 2 wins 2 draws 3 losses
either way 3 wins and a draw puts us on 87 points
if luton beat boro we only 3 need wins as our gd is 20 better than luton

and 4 home games on the bounce after burnley against teams we havent lost to this season
looks promising
 
blade too long said:
luton max is 86 with 6 wins
boro is 85 with 6 wins but a draw when they meet drops it by 2 points 84 and 83
then we will need just 8 points to be sure
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We need 11 in that scenario to go up just on points, or 10 points if goal difference stays good enough.
 
Nelson1889 said:
Think that breaks the spirit of the other 2 and they've got to start thinking about planning for the play offs at some point so will they be going hell for leather trying to claw back a 2% chance of catching us when they could rest players for the potential extra 3 matches they'll have at the end of the season.
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I think Luton settled for a point v Millwall. They weren't going all out. I am not sure they were truly in the catch them mindset
 
I think both Boro and Luton are now looking at the play off's, it is highly unlikely one will win every remaining game and highly unlikely that we can't scrape three wins from seven games. No doubt about it one of them has to win every game to have a slight chance of 2nd place the games are ticking down.
 
Berkshire Blade said:
I think Luton settled for a point v Millwall. They weren't going all out. I am not sure they were truly in the catch them mindset
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That game was also so terrible to watch, no idea how they’re actually 3rd, was like watching league 1 shite
 



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