CONFIRMED Aaron Ramsdale returns to the Lane

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Alright, so caveat up front: there is no magic number that tells you how good a goalkeeper (or any position for that matter) is. And I am not an expert in this, just someone who finds it interesting as another layer to look at in addition to actually watching the player play. I know plenty don't, including the poster above :p But you asked, so here we are :)

Particularly in this case, there's a few categories that give a bit of a picture as to what kind of a keeper Ramsdale was last season. They don't tell us what he'll be like next season (probably). I have no doubt he'll get better given that he's young, that was his first season as a number 1 at this level, and I'd be willing to bet our goalkeeper coaching setup is better than Bournemouth's.

From FBRef, a measure of shot-stopping ability compared to the rest of the league is PSxG+/- (what a mouthful). If you mouse over the heading for the stats it shows you an explanation for each one - this one is "how likely a goalkeeper was to save a shot [based on data, not opinion]", minus the actual number of goals they conceded.

Dubravka absolutely smashed this with a +10 measure which basically he means his saves were "worth" 10 goals above the average: he faced a PSxG of 66 goals, and conceded 56 (note - he actually conceded 58, but 2 were own goals). Henderson was +4.6 - his saves were worth about 4 or 5 goals over the full season. Ramsdale was +0.1 - he did exactly what was expected of him, essentially. On the flipside, Kepa actively harmed his team this season at -9.8.

To an extent this can get skewed by how much work a keeper has to do. If a keeper doesn't face a single shot on target, he'll struggle to get that number up to Dubravka levels, because he literally has no saves to make. So Dubravka and Guaita being top of this might just mean they were only quite good, but very busy. But as the explainer on the site says, these numbers "suggest better luck or an above average ability to save shots". And it is over the course of a full season, so a decent sample size.

There's a good article on it here from Statsbomb (who provide the data that FBRef use): https://statsbomb.com/2018/11/a-new-way-to-measure-keepers-shot-stopping-post-shot-expected-goals/

Also worth looking at things like Save %, Crosses Stopped %, and #OPA (number of defensive actions outside penalty area - how often was he out sweeping up) just to give you a bit more of a picture of how he fared last season compared to all the other keepers in the league.
I find this stuff really interesting but my tiny brain cant really grasp a lot of it. Presumably most Prem teams (us included) have folks who look at this data to help when assessing potential transfer targets?
 

Alright, so caveat up front: there is no magic number that tells you how good a goalkeeper (or any position for that matter) is. And I am not an expert in this, just someone who finds it interesting as another layer to look at in addition to actually watching the player play. I know plenty don't, including the poster above :p But you asked, so here we are :)

Particularly in this case, there's a few categories that give a bit of a picture as to what kind of a keeper Ramsdale was last season. They don't tell us what he'll be like next season (probably). I have no doubt he'll get better given that he's young, that was his first season as a number 1 at this level, and I'd be willing to bet our goalkeeper coaching setup is better than Bournemouth's.

From FBRef, a measure of shot-stopping ability compared to the rest of the league is PSxG+/- (what a mouthful). If you mouse over the heading for the stats it shows you an explanation for each one - this one is "how likely a goalkeeper was to save a shot [based on data, not opinion]", minus the actual number of goals they conceded.

Dubravka absolutely smashed this with a +10 measure which basically he means his saves were "worth" 10 goals above the average: he faced a PSxG of 66 goals, and conceded 56 (note - he actually conceded 58, but 2 were own goals). Henderson was +4.6 - his saves were worth about 4 or 5 goals over the full season. Ramsdale was +0.1 - he did exactly what was expected of him, essentially. On the flipside, Kepa actively harmed his team this season at -9.8.

To an extent this can get skewed by how much work a keeper has to do. If a keeper doesn't face a single shot on target, he'll struggle to get that number up to Dubravka levels, because he literally has no saves to make. So Dubravka and Guaita being top of this might just mean they were only quite good, but very busy. But as the explainer on the site says, these numbers "suggest better luck or an above average ability to save shots". And it is over the course of a full season, so a decent sample size.

There's a good article on it here from Statsbomb (who provide the data that FBRef use): https://statsbomb.com/2018/11/a-new-way-to-measure-keepers-shot-stopping-post-shot-expected-goals/

Also worth looking at things like Save %, Crosses Stopped %, and #OPA (number of defensive actions outside penalty area - how often was he out sweeping up) just to give you a bit more of a picture of how he fared last season compared to all the other keepers in the league.

Interesting stuff, i was looking on my mobile so didnt get the benefit of the rollover descriptions. Appreciate the effort.
 

Interesting article in the Examiner about the actual fee we have/are paying. Not sure if it's been put on here elsewhere - if so I apologise! Sounds much more Wilderesq than the fee of £18.5 mill reported elsewhere.

UTB
 
I'm glad we're keeping up the S2 tradition of spelling the names of prospective signings wrong.

Fully expect Arron Ramsdale & Jhon.Swift to be announced shortly.
 
An obvious and predictable tactic to squeeze an increase in personal terms from Utd. I would be staggered if he turned Utd down in favour of another club.

Another positive is that it's obviously not just Utd that Ramsdale has impressed.
 
I have to wonder, for all the reports of villa chasing the players we are linked with, how many times have they actually signed someone we were after because I can’t think of many. Jota comes to mind but are there actually any more?
 



Dean Smith is just taking the piss at this point...


That's funny as I was thinking yesterday with Utd going for Ramsdale and Heaton still out, it could pave the way for Henderson to go to Villa. Not sure it would be in his best interests but Villa would certainly be willing to pay what he'd cost for the season and he'd certainly improve them.
 
I can't see there been a problem from Ramsdale's end in terms of wanting to join us. The problem would be more likely that Villa increase the bid for Ramsdale and we have to match it, although maybe if we've agreed a deal that it would be particularly poor on Bournemouth's part to want us to increase our bid. If its just a case of us or Villa, I'm sure Ramsdale will chose us over them, he clearly wants to come back.
 
I can't see there been a problem from Ramsdale's end in terms of wanting to join us. The problem would be more likely that Villa increase the bid for Ramsdale and we have to match it, although maybe if we've agreed a deal that it would be particularly poor on Bournemouth's part to want us to increase our bid. If its just a case of us or Villa, I'm sure Ramsdale will chose us over them, he clearly wants to come back.

Villa would need to pay £22.5 million + to match our deal and we would get 20% of that.
 
Villa would need to pay £22.5 million + to match our deal and we would get 20% of that.

That depends whether you believe the 18 million figure , not me. I believe were paying 18 minus the 15% minus sell on clause and what they still ow us for Brooks
 
Will take him less time to adjust and will know/be able to communicate with his defence better
Yes. Most foreign goalies struggle in the premier League. That's why none of the top teams ever sign them
 
We are actual outlay is around ten million according to local reports
I bet that's about right. All transfer fees are undisclosed these days which allows both clubs to spin the story they want. The truth can be worked out when the finances come out but by then everyone has moved on.

It also suits both clubs to let rumours of high values be bandied about.

For the seller it shows they won't let anyone have their pants down.

For the buyer it says look how ambitious we area
 


Seems like the Agent trying to generate some late leverage for the negotiations to me.
We've already had an offer accepted & are in the process of agreeing personal terms, if interested - why would Villa only be "considering an offer" at this late stage, as opposed to matching ours to give themselves any sort of a chance?

The one annoying thing about the Premier League is that it's impossible to go about your business quietly anymore.
Anyone we stick a bid in for is almost automatically linked / touted to Burnley, Villa, Leeds, Fulham, Everton, Southampton Newcastle, West Brom - via agents doing their bit.

If I'm wrong & Smith is genuinely interested in Ramsdale all of a sudden then I really hope Ramsdale tells him where to go. Bit of arrogance to think he can gazump us on this one at the 11th hour. Dean Smith is a proper weasel too. No respect for him.
 
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Fkin Villa

let's hope Ramsdale makes the right choice
Perhaps it wouldn't be the worst thing to happen if it means we have to up the ante for Cakir.

I don't think he would choose Villa over us, but if they bid more than us are Bournemouth entitled to go back on the acceptance of our bid?
 

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