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Seth Rollins

Seth Rollins

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Not me sadly, but I wish I had had the courage of my convictions and put money on us finishing top 6.
 
Sadly not. I stuck a quid on us to finish in the top six though at 125/1. I also stuck £20 on us to win the FA Cup at 50/1 after we'd started the season pretty well and the bookies hadn't reacted and updated the odds. I'd say that I wish I'd put more money on us to finish in the top six, though if I always did that I'd have likely ended up losing a fair bit of money over the years!
 
I've made a prediction calculator. The bookies' odds of 14/1 (6.67% chance) for us to finish in the top four are a bit better than my guess (4.56%). Their odds of 750/1 (0.13%) for relegation are higher than mine (0.01%).

I ran 100,000 simulations, and got these results:

Forecast.jpg

I was a bit pessimistic for our results. Also notable that I seem to think that Everton will drop off, Southampton will recover well and that Bournemouth will be the third relegated team. This is based on their respective run-ins.
 
Last edited:
Geordie Blade said:
I've made a prediction calculator. The bookies' odds of 14/1 (6.67% chance) for us to finish in the top four are a bit better than my guess (4.56%). Their odds of 750/1 (0.13%) are higher than mine (0.01%).

I ran 100,000 simulations, and got these results:

View attachment 71189

I was a bit pessimistic for our results. Also notable that I seem to think that Everton will drop off, Southampton will recover well and that Bournemouth will be the third relegated team. This is based on their respective run-ins.
Click to expand...
Good work! Interesting that of our rivals for 4th (I still can't beleive I'm typing that), Chelsea, Spurs, Everton and Wolves all need to come to the Lane. Assuming we can stay in touch, 4 fantastic, mouth-watering occasions to come.
 
Blade for Sale said:
Good work! Interesting that of our rivals for 4th (I still can't beleive I'm typing that), Chelsea, Spurs, Everton and Wolves all need to come to the Lane. Assuming we can stay in touch, 4 fantastic, mouth-watering occasions to come.
Click to expand...

My inputted chance of us winning those home games was:

Chelsea = 35%
Spurs = 35%
Everton = 45%
Wolves = 35%

I was a lot more pessimistic with the away games, giving all teams at least a 50% chance of beating us.
 
Sadly wasn’t me, but a top four finish will see me rake in just over £300 in total (£5 on top half finish at 10/1 and 50p on top 4 at 500/1).
 
Just thought i’d post asking cos i’m sure someone on here put a screenshot of a bet they had of us finishing top 4. Cant remember which thread it was on though.
 
I have £5 on 116/1 top 6 and a cheeky punt at £10 on 1000/1 to win PL.

One of these now realistically might pay out !
 
Geordie Blade said:
I've made a prediction calculator. The bookies' odds of 14/1 (6.67% chance) for us to finish in the top four are a bit better than my guess (4.56%). Their odds of 750/1 (0.13%) for relegation are higher than mine (0.01%).

I ran 100,000 simulations, and got these results:

View attachment 71189

I was a bit pessimistic for our results. Also notable that I seem to think that Everton will drop off, Southampton will recover well and that Bournemouth will be the third relegated team. This is based on their respective run-ins.
Click to expand...

Really interesting graph although at 1st glance it looks like you may have a touch of the old Blades pessimism in there. Not a dig BTW as I'm sure we've all had to pinch ourselves at times this season and even the most optimistic must have a certain inkling that the "Blades Way" will resurface at some point.

Based on current form, and the season in general really, I'm not quite sure how there's a bigger chance of us finishing 12th than there is to us finishing 4th???
 
LondonBlade89 said:
Sadly not. I stuck a quid on us to finish in the top six though at 125/1. I also stuck £20 on us to win the FA Cup at 50/1 after we'd started the season pretty well and the bookies hadn't reacted and updated the odds. I'd say that I wish I'd put more money on us to finish in the top six, though if I always did that I'd have likely ended up losing a fair bit of money over the years!
Click to expand...
Best of luck, I have a feeling you are shortly going to more 'mates' than you realised
 



had a tenner on top 10 and tenner on top 6 before the season kicked off. £1180 return if we do it. Was discussing with non believing work colleagues who thought I should cash in early! I am a believer so am holding on :)
 
One of my mates has a fiver on top 4 finish at 500/1

He checked the cash out value after the game yesterday and it was only £114 so he's sticking with it for now.
 
Before the start of the season, my dad asked me to put a tenner on us finishing top 6, I did; insisting that he was an idiot and it was a waste of £10 on a 100/1 bet.
Its now at its highest cash out at £269.34, he's happy to let it run.
He's not given me the tenner yet though....
 
Upton_Blade said:
Based on current form, and the season in general really, I'm not quite sure how there's a bigger chance of us finishing 12th than there is to us finishing 4th???
Click to expand...

Upton_Blade said:
it looks like you may have a touch of the old Blades pessimism in there
Click to expand...

Yep, you answered your own question there! Realistically, though, to finish 4th, we have to outperform Chelsea AND Spurs AND Manchester United AND Wolves over twelve games. Finishing 12th is very unlikely, but is definitely not impossible. It would take a big slump but, if that happened, the four mentioned above, plus Everton, Arsenal and two of Burnley, Newcastle, Southampton and Palace could definitely win enough points to go past us.

In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy the ride for the first time in years without worrying about a bad outcome!
 



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