Elsecar_Blade
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- #31
Needs updating but it ain't looking good! Will sort it tomorrow!
WB's 'Have we improved on last season?' thread
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you might want to update after we win the next three games and go back into the play off positions :thumbup:
Elsecar_Blade
Active Member
- Thread starter
- #33
OK, an update. Seeing as we're doing well and it's worth the comparison again. 
Comparing our results to last season's corresponding results to see how we improve/fall back. Obviously some sides will improve, others will decline but it should even out and give us an idea of where we're heading.
With Wolves, Birmingham and Burnley in the Premiership, I used their league positions to swap them with the relegated Premiership teams, i.e. Newcastle were 18th in Premier League so replace Wolves. Ditto with the promoted clubs from League 1 and replacing the relegated teams.
Therefore: Newcastle = Wolves; Middlesbrough = Birmingham; West Brom = Burnley; Leicester = Norwich; Peterborough = Southampton; Scunthorpe = Charlton.
Last season: we finished with a goal difference of +25 and 80 points.
Well, we’ve rallied a little. An unconvincing win over Peterborough (compared to a 0-0 draw with Southampton at the Lane last season) and a well-earned win at Bristol City see us improve our points total by four after the dismal run of form prior to this game. We are now four points worse off than last season and if we were to get the same results as last season, we would still finish 5th in the Championship – unbelievable hey?
Our current predicted record would (in the last ten seasons) would have seen us finish in the following places:
Champions: 0
2nd: 0
3rd: 1
4th: 2
5th: 2
6th: 5
Out of Play Offs: 0
Bottom Half: 0
Relegated: 0
Amazingly, considering recent form, our current predicted total would have made the Play Offs on every occasion in the last ten seasons. Obviously, we need to match last season’s results to do this but I suppose we have something to shout about again. I also think – and I’d be interested to know what you think of this – that the total points for the Play Offs will be low this season, maybe around the 71/72 mark and relegation might end up happening to a team with a high number, i.e. 51/52. It’s such a tight league – similar to the season that Hull and Stoke got out.
In the corresponding fixtures last season, we didn’t win any of the next five – drew four and lost one. This is a massive chance for us to secure more points and boost our potential points tally for this season. We should be capable of getting more than four points in the next five with three very winnable games in the next three games for sure. QPR and Leicester away will be tough but a Blades side with five wins behind them would be a different proposition to the one that rolled over in November and October.
UTB!
Comparing our results to last season's corresponding results to see how we improve/fall back. Obviously some sides will improve, others will decline but it should even out and give us an idea of where we're heading.
With Wolves, Birmingham and Burnley in the Premiership, I used their league positions to swap them with the relegated Premiership teams, i.e. Newcastle were 18th in Premier League so replace Wolves. Ditto with the promoted clubs from League 1 and replacing the relegated teams.
Therefore: Newcastle = Wolves; Middlesbrough = Birmingham; West Brom = Burnley; Leicester = Norwich; Peterborough = Southampton; Scunthorpe = Charlton.
Last season: we finished with a goal difference of +25 and 80 points.
Code:
Opponents V Score LastS | Points GD | Improvement
| | Pts GD
========================================|=====================|================
| |
Middlesbrough A 0-0 0-1 | +1 +1 | 81 26
| |
Watford H 2-0 2-1 | -- +1 | 81 27
| |
Leicester H 1-1 1-0 | -2 -1 | 79 26
| |
Reading A 3-1 1-0 | -- +1 | 79 27
| |
West Brom H 2-2 2-3 | +1 +1 | 80 28
| |
Derby County A 1-0 1-2 | +3 +2 | 83 30
| |
Coventry City A 2-3 2-1 | -3 -2 | 80 28
| |
Wednesday H 3-2 1-2 | +3 +2 | 83 30
| |
Swansea A 1-2 1-1 | -1 -1 | 82 29
| |
Ipswich H 3-3 1-0 | -2 -1 | 80 28
| |
Doncaster H 1-1 0-1 | +1 +1 | 81 29
| |
Scunthorpe A 1-3 5-2 | -3 -5 | 78 24
| |
Blackpool A 0-3 3-1 | -3 -5 | 75 19
| |
Cardiff H 3-4 0-0 | -1 -1 | 74 18
| |
Newcastle H 0-1 1-3 | -- +1 | 74 19
| |
Barnsley A 2-2 2-1 | -2 -1 | 72 18
| |
Peterboro’ H 1-0 0-0 | +2 +1 | 74 19
| |
Bristol C A 3-2 0-0 | +2 +1 | 76 20
| |
Plymouth A --- 2-2 | -- -- | -- --
| |
Forest A --- 0-0 | -- -- | -- --
| |
Palace A --- 2-2 | -- -- | -- --
| |
QPR A --- 0-0 | -- -- | -- --
| |
Leicester A --- 0-1 | -- -- | -- --Well, we’ve rallied a little. An unconvincing win over Peterborough (compared to a 0-0 draw with Southampton at the Lane last season) and a well-earned win at Bristol City see us improve our points total by four after the dismal run of form prior to this game. We are now four points worse off than last season and if we were to get the same results as last season, we would still finish 5th in the Championship – unbelievable hey?
Our current predicted record would (in the last ten seasons) would have seen us finish in the following places:
Champions: 0
2nd: 0
3rd: 1
4th: 2
5th: 2
6th: 5
Out of Play Offs: 0
Bottom Half: 0
Relegated: 0
Amazingly, considering recent form, our current predicted total would have made the Play Offs on every occasion in the last ten seasons. Obviously, we need to match last season’s results to do this but I suppose we have something to shout about again. I also think – and I’d be interested to know what you think of this – that the total points for the Play Offs will be low this season, maybe around the 71/72 mark and relegation might end up happening to a team with a high number, i.e. 51/52. It’s such a tight league – similar to the season that Hull and Stoke got out.
In the corresponding fixtures last season, we didn’t win any of the next five – drew four and lost one. This is a massive chance for us to secure more points and boost our potential points tally for this season. We should be capable of getting more than four points in the next five with three very winnable games in the next three games for sure. QPR and Leicester away will be tough but a Blades side with five wins behind them would be a different proposition to the one that rolled over in November and October.
UTB!
mattbianco1
Forum Royalty
See, Keep the faith blades and stop calling for the manager's head!!
Brilliant thread W.B:thumbup:
I
implied
Guest
If my auntie had a pair of knackers, she'd be my uncle.
We aren't good enough to get the same results as last season.
mattbianco1
Forum Royalty
if i had no optimism i'd be a wednesday fan!.... or implied
I
implied
Guest
I have optimism; we'll rise again!
But the sooner we get rid of Blackwell, the better!
Elsecar_Blade
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- Thread starter
- #38
Thats not the point of the thread though. Whether we are good enough to do that is an open debate but the stats say that if we are, we would end up in the Play Offs. Or better - haven't updated with Plymouth result yet.
I'm not suggesting that Blackwell is doing a good job, I'm using logical means to get a realistic handle on where we are. I'm not a fan of sacking managers in August to April and probably would still give Blackwell till the end of the season and judge him then. This thread is about stats and I use last season as an indicator of what Blackwell's teams can do, i.e last season.
What I will point out is that (inc. the Plymouth game), we won none of the next five last season. First game up, we've won it. That's an improvement - yes, a little one and the performance might have been crap BUT it was crap at Plymouth last season and we drew. Who is to not say that we've been low in the league so far because we have had the harder games?
Anyway, the opinions go elsewhere. This is stats and is logical. The title is 'Have we improved?' and so far, the answer is no - but not by much.
Elsecar_Blade
Active Member
- Thread starter
- #39
Comparing our results to last season's corresponding results to see how we improve/fall back. Obviously some sides will improve, others will decline but it should even out and give us an idea of where we're heading.
With Wolves, Birmingham and Burnley in the Premiership, I used their league positions to swap them with the relegated Premiership teams, i.e. Newcastle were 18th in Premier League so replace Wolves. Ditto with the promoted clubs from League 1 and replacing the relegated teams.
Therefore: Newcastle = Wolves; Middlesbrough = Birmingham; West Brom = Burnley; Leicester = Norwich; Peterborough = Southampton; Scunthorpe = Charlton.
Last season: we finished with a goal difference of +25 and 80 points.
Another win although it sounds unconvincing like the Peterborough one. Fair play to the manager and players though – an ugly win is better than good performances and defeats a la Cardiff and Newcastle at home. Whatever their shortcomings, three wins on the bounce has us back in Play-Off contention again – although this thread already knew we were still in Play Off contention didn’t you?!!
Our current predicted record would (in the last ten seasons) would have seen us finish in the following places:
Champions: 0
2nd: 0
3rd: 2
4th: 5
5th: 3
6th: 0
Out of Play Offs: 0
Bottom Half: 0
Relegated: 0
Like I said, the Plymouth game was winnable and win it we did. We are now – if we get the same results again – set for 78 points and a goal difference of +21. That’s just 2 points off the total we got last time out. We’d always – in the last ten years – have finished in the Play Offs with that and on seven occasions, we would have home advantage in the second leg of the Play Off Semi Final.
Last season, we only picked up two points in the next four games so there has to be an opportunity to improve even further before we meet Preston at the Lane. For me, the Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace games are massive games for SUFC. They are the games that we should win – particularly the Palace one – and we desperately need a stylish win to win a few fans back. Whilst I am not supporting Blackwell, I do still think he did enough last season to ride out this storm and have until the end of the season. That is the time to judge him, in my opinion. Two good wins with some style would put us back in the Play Offs and give us hope heading into Christmas.
UTB!
With Wolves, Birmingham and Burnley in the Premiership, I used their league positions to swap them with the relegated Premiership teams, i.e. Newcastle were 18th in Premier League so replace Wolves. Ditto with the promoted clubs from League 1 and replacing the relegated teams.
Therefore: Newcastle = Wolves; Middlesbrough = Birmingham; West Brom = Burnley; Leicester = Norwich; Peterborough = Southampton; Scunthorpe = Charlton.
Last season: we finished with a goal difference of +25 and 80 points.
Code:
Opponents V Score LastS | Points GD | Improvement
| | Pts GD
========================================|=====================|================
| |
Middlesbrough A 0-0 0-1 | +1 +1 | 81 26
| |
Watford H 2-0 2-1 | -- +1 | 81 27
| |
Leicester H 1-1 1-0 | -2 -1 | 79 26
| |
Reading A 3-1 1-0 | -- +1 | 79 27
| |
West Brom H 2-2 2-3 | +1 +1 | 80 28
| |
Derby County A 1-0 1-2 | +3 +2 | 83 30
| |
Coventry City A 2-3 2-1 | -3 -2 | 80 28
| |
Wednesday H 3-2 1-2 | +3 +2 | 83 30
| |
Swansea A 1-2 1-1 | -1 -1 | 82 29
| |
Ipswich H 3-3 1-0 | -2 -1 | 80 28
| |
Doncaster H 1-1 0-1 | +1 +1 | 81 29
| |
Scunthorpe A 1-3 5-2 | -3 -5 | 78 24
| |
Blackpool A 0-3 3-1 | -3 -5 | 75 19
| |
Cardiff H 3-4 0-0 | -1 -1 | 74 18
| |
Newcastle H 0-1 1-3 | -- +1 | 74 19
| |
Barnsley A 2-2 2-1 | -2 -1 | 72 18
| |
Peterboro’ H 1-0 0-0 | +2 +1 | 74 19
| |
Bristol C A 3-2 0-0 | +2 +1 | 76 20
| |
Plymouth A 1-0 2-2 | +2 +1 | 78 21
| |
Forest H --- 0-0 | -- -- | -- --
| |
Palace H --- 2-2 | -- -- | -- --
| |
QPR A --- 0-0 | -- -- | -- --
| |
Leicester A --- 0-1 | -- -- | -- --
| |
Preston H --- 1-0 | -- -- | -- --Another win although it sounds unconvincing like the Peterborough one. Fair play to the manager and players though – an ugly win is better than good performances and defeats a la Cardiff and Newcastle at home. Whatever their shortcomings, three wins on the bounce has us back in Play-Off contention again – although this thread already knew we were still in Play Off contention didn’t you?!!
Our current predicted record would (in the last ten seasons) would have seen us finish in the following places:
Champions: 0
2nd: 0
3rd: 2
4th: 5
5th: 3
6th: 0
Out of Play Offs: 0
Bottom Half: 0
Relegated: 0
Like I said, the Plymouth game was winnable and win it we did. We are now – if we get the same results again – set for 78 points and a goal difference of +21. That’s just 2 points off the total we got last time out. We’d always – in the last ten years – have finished in the Play Offs with that and on seven occasions, we would have home advantage in the second leg of the Play Off Semi Final.
Last season, we only picked up two points in the next four games so there has to be an opportunity to improve even further before we meet Preston at the Lane. For me, the Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace games are massive games for SUFC. They are the games that we should win – particularly the Palace one – and we desperately need a stylish win to win a few fans back. Whilst I am not supporting Blackwell, I do still think he did enough last season to ride out this storm and have until the end of the season. That is the time to judge him, in my opinion. Two good wins with some style would put us back in the Play Offs and give us hope heading into Christmas.
UTB!
I
implied
Guest
This is not at all logical.
This season's games have very little correlation to last season's.
The players are different, the weather is different, other influences such as pressure, the manager's tactical decisions, squad morale and motivation, the referee, the crowd's influence are all different.
If you want a 'logical means to get a realistic handle on where we are' look at the league table, and save yourself hours of calculating meaningless nonsense.
Humbug!
Elsecar_Blade
Active Member
- Thread starter
- #41
When did I ever say they did? That's not the point. The question is 'Have we improved?' which is simply a comparison of results from last season to this season. 'If we do the same as we did last season in the rest of our games, then we will (not) have improved.' is what I'm looking for. And that's exactly what I'm doing.
Again, when did I ever say they didn't? But last season's results are the best indication that we have. I'm comparing this season to last season so using last seasons results seems the logical place to start. The players may be different (so I'm testing if they're better or not, i.e. 'Have we improved?'), the weather is different (but it's probably not that different over a season), the pressures change (but isn't pressure linked to 'Have we improved?'), the managers tactical decisions are different (but it's still the same manager), squad morale/motivation is different (again, that links to different players and 'Have we improved?'), the referees are different (but still usually crap and probably no better/crapper than last season) and the crowds influence does change (probably linked to pressure change as well).
The league table shows how we have performed in 19 games (or whatever it is) and we could have had a difficult start - what if we've played the top 9 teams at home and the next 10 away? I don't dispute that the league table shows where we are but I'm comparing results. To see if they improve or not. Yes, some teams get better. Yes, some teams get worse. Yes, we get different referees and players. But things rarely change that much that this is meaningless nonsense.
It isn't taking hours - more like 5 minutes after each game.
If you don't think it has any worth, don't read it. That's your choice. But I think it shows that things aren't as bad as are being made out by some. Maybe you're a Blackwell hater and didn't like my comment that he deserved till the end of the season?
If it meaningless nonsense, I'd point you to two things.
1. The number of thanks I've had from others re: the data (23)
2. The fact that it was sticked at the top of the board.
Seems there are a few who disagree.
Up the Blades.
I
implied
Guest
When did you say that?
When you said it was logical!
Improvement can be measured against a constant factor, not a variable.
Popularity doesn't imply statistical accuracy or meaning.
When you said it was logical!
Improvement can be measured against a constant factor, not a variable.
Popularity doesn't imply statistical accuracy or meaning.
Elsecar_Blade
Active Member
- Thread starter
- #43
Constant factor = last seasons results. I don't see them changing anytime soon.
Variable = This seasons results. Which I'm comparing against a constant factor ...
And I never said it did. That was to highlight that the 'meaningless nonsense' as you termed it was valued by plenty. Like I said, if you don't think it has value, don't read it.
Come from away
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Well we all know what happened to the last guy who said "humbug", and Christmas is coming soon. Enjoy! UTB!!!
I
implied
Guest
Well you're spectacularly wrong, but you seem happy in your ignorance, so we'll leave it at that.
I guess it's my mistake to assume that a thread on a discussion board, about the consequences of an event would warrant discussion about the likelihood of it.
Enjoy your thread. I'll keep away if your bullshit isn't up for discussion.
I
implied
Guest
Worksop II
Defectum Heroicis
I
implied
Guest
I think you have missed the point.
Elsecar_Blade
Active Member
- Thread starter
- #49
Jeez. You keep choosing to put words in my mouth don't you?
Who said it wasn't up for discussion? Another complete fabrication. Have I done something to upset you previously?
Look, I'm not saying that your points aren't valid - they are - but it's simply a comparison between last season and this. I think it came around from a discussion about whether our start had been tough or not initially. Not once have I denied that the rest of the results over the season wouldn't change - they clearly will - but it's the best guide we have as it is the most recent. Whilst some teams improve and some regress, I think that those two things must balance out and leaves just the question of whether we are improving or not.
As for your comments about 'meaningless nonsense' and 'bullshit' - they're you're opinion but why not just keep that to yourself if you can't make the point constructively? Like I say, there are people who do value the statistical approach and it does give an indication as to whether things are as bad or as good as they seem - there'll be few teams who make staggering progress (only Leicester and maybe Forest) and few teams make a staggering regression (Ipswich, maybe Wednesday) ...
Anyway, I'm going to keep doing it. If you don't like it, good for you.
Who said it wasn't up for discussion? Another complete fabrication. Have I done something to upset you previously?
Look, I'm not saying that your points aren't valid - they are - but it's simply a comparison between last season and this. I think it came around from a discussion about whether our start had been tough or not initially. Not once have I denied that the rest of the results over the season wouldn't change - they clearly will - but it's the best guide we have as it is the most recent. Whilst some teams improve and some regress, I think that those two things must balance out and leaves just the question of whether we are improving or not.
As for your comments about 'meaningless nonsense' and 'bullshit' - they're you're opinion but why not just keep that to yourself if you can't make the point constructively? Like I say, there are people who do value the statistical approach and it does give an indication as to whether things are as bad or as good as they seem - there'll be few teams who make staggering progress (only Leicester and maybe Forest) and few teams make a staggering regression (Ipswich, maybe Wednesday) ...
Anyway, I'm going to keep doing it. If you don't like it, good for you.
I
implied
Guest
Firstly, your first reply says opinions shouldn't be posted here.
Secondly, that isn't my opinion, it's mathematical fact.
But good look with it. :thumbup:
Secondly, that isn't my opinion, it's mathematical fact.
But good look with it. :thumbup:
Elsecar_Blade
Active Member
- Thread starter
- #51
In reference to myself I believe? Just after I posted an opinion.
No chance. We'll have to agree to disagree.
That's 'luck' by the way, Mr Maths-Whizz.
Come from away
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WB: I for one appreciate the stats, they give a sense of where we are and of what may be possible. Just puts things in perspective. Don't think they prove anything one way or the other but there again that's not the point. If history and past performance are not a guide I guess we stick to guessing and made up assumptions. Personaly you have my thanks. UTB!
I
implied
Guest
The grammar police!
How embarrassing for both of us!
OK, my last post on here as you're too ignorant to listen anyway.
You are comparing the result of one match against the result of another unrelated match. Your control is variable.
An example:
Comparing the score from two largely unrelated matches (say SUFC vs DRFC in 2008 and SUFC vs DRFC in 2009) is very much akin to comparing the result of two running races, when the first was 100 metres and the second was 150 metres. This is basic mathematics.
Anyhow, enjoy your 'thanks', and I'll stay clear of this thread from now on as promised.
UTB!
I think its you who are talking nonsense.
Obviously the comparism between games v DRFC in 2008 and 2009 is not an exact one. However, some comparism can be made as there are some similarities between the two events - the two club's resources will be broadly similar in the 2 years and many of the players in the 2 games will be the same. On each occasion the game lasts the same amount of time and is played in the same place
It is not at all "basic mathematics".
I
implied
Guest
And here's me thinking arithmetic was a branch of mathematics.
Oh look! The Oxford English Dictionary agrees with me!
http://www.askoxford.com/concise_oed/arithmetic?view=uk
And if that was a personal insult, then so are correcting my spelling and pointing out 'mistakes' like that.
How petty!
I
implied
Guest
What about comparing our match against Scunthorpe with the one against Charlton Athletic?
What about comparing our match against last seasons Reading or Ipswich with this season's Reading or Ipswich.
What about comparing our match against Newcastle with the one against Wolverhampton?
What about another team comparing there results against the 2009 Blades with the 2010 Blades? We're a completely different side.
It's nonsense, and the OP even admits id doesn't 'mean much' in his first post!
A quick summary...
OP: Statistically, if we match last seasons performance in corresponding games, we'll finish in the play-offs.
Me: We aren't good enough to do that.
OP: How dare you disregard my logical, statistical wonderpage?!
Me: Because that's my opinion, and besides your table isn't really that logical.
Then follows 2 pages of rambling, muttering and air.
I told the OP, I'd leave him to it in my last post, but I thought the other posters deserved a reply.
I won't read any more replies to this thread. Argue amongst yourselves if you're that bored.
UTB
Elsecar_Blade
Active Member
- Thread starter
- #58
Errr, OK.
If we match our performances last season this season, we will make the Play Offs on 78 points - it's happened the last ten times.
We may or may notbe good enough. That's never been the point of the thread though - which is what I meant by 'not for opinion' by the way. I have done what I have to compare the results and see if they improve.
It's by no means a wonderpage or even an exact science. In fact, if you read my threads, I refer to the fact that teams will improve, others won't several times. But - for comparison sake - I can't think of a better thing to compare against than last season. Apologies if that upsets you in some way.
Your opinion was not what I was questioning - you're entitled to what you think - but I think my stats back up the idea that it was never as bad as people were saying. Yes, we were rubbish and yes, we were without wins for 8 games. But in the main, they were mostly in games we failed to win last year.
No offence meant.
Wapping Blade
Well-Known Member
I think it's valid and appreciate it. If you don't want to believe in the method fine and I fully acccept that the past is not always the key to the future (black swans etc.) but it appears to work here.
super_pig
Well-Known Member
guys.. chill.. well the stats may be this and that but hey they make interesting reading and that's the main thing..
plea~ would the grammar nazis please pack it in. this is an internet board not a court of law
plea~ would the grammar nazis please pack it in. this is an internet board not a court of law
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