7 to go. Will Wilder be brave?

[Jan Age]

7 games to go and 4 of them against teams hoping to sneak into that 6th league position.

There were positive signs of a return to form at Brentford and the players were 'at it' again but I sense we need to really kick-on somehow.

Our strikers are not very hot at present and we are short of what you might call 'heroes' these days.

Wilder needs one or two players to get on hot streaks and that's all we need actually. I forecast we will get 14 points from the 21 remaining but do we need more? We are vying with 5 other teams for 2 places and have to finish 1st or 2nd in that mini-league within the league. None of the teams looks clear favourites to me, far from it, anything can happen.

Within the 3-5-2 'die that's cast' it's perfectly possible for Clarke and/or Sharp to get back on track. It's possible for any one of Duffy, Holmes and Brooks to get inspired and see us over the line.

My fear is that we will fall just short even though only Millwall can be said to be flying at present.

What should Wilder do?

I fear our wing-backs in the 3-5-2 are not productive enough for a big finish to the season. Does our manager select different wing-backs? Change to 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1, 4-4-2, 4-5-1? If not from the start of games, maybe as an early 'Plan B'?

History can be in the making. Legends can be born hereon-in. If we don't step up somehow we will just miss out. Does the manager 'stick or twist'; stick and hope or twist and gamble, which is what any significant change would be, a gamble.

If we get 75 points it’s almost nailed on we will be in play offs but we need to average 2 points a game meaning we need 4 wins 2 draws and 1 loss or 5 wins and 2 losses. It’s a big ask....

 

[Davalon]

I don’t think we have over achieved, infact I don’t think we have the points most of our performances have deserved.

I agree totally we could have a handful more points if we fully had what we deserved, and I can't think of many where we got more than we deserved.

That said I still think the players performed either above themselves or to their limit on a regular basis for a while.

We haven't won some games because we weren't good enough to take opportunities or make the most of possession in dangerous areas.

Our points per game ratio over the last 20 games compared to the first 19 surely gives a picture. I don't buy the theory that it's purely down to Coutts but even if it was, then that shows the depth of our squad, or lack of it.

I must emphasise I'm not being critical, completely the opposite. I just think from my own point of view we should be realistic about what is expected from this group of players.

 

[Tom Traubert]

I'll just settle for enough points to finish 5th or 6th. Not too bothered how we achieve that, but I trust him to do what's necessary.
We are in complete bonus territory now anyway, it's quite nice that the season can't possibly go wrong.

get into the play offs on goal difference and go on to win the final 1-0 like burnley did a few years ago will do for me ,who did they play cant remember ?

 

[Addison]

In answer to the o/p tactics will be determined based on how the opposition set up. Tomorrow we are playing the form team in the league. Strict 4-2-3-1 approach from them. Very tall aggressive and pacy team. Where will it be won and lost well winning the midfield battle and our ability to defend set pieces will be key. 3-5-2 can cause them problems if we move the ball early and get round the back of them. Duffy would have been a key player but looks like he's injured. They are likely to sit back and counter quickly on the break a tactic we have struggled to cope with.

 

[Addison]

In answer to the o/p tactics will be determined based on how the opposition set up. Tomorrow we are playing the form team in the league. Strict 4-2-3-1 approach from them. Very tall aggressive and pacy team. Where will it be won and lost well winning the midfield battle and our ability to defend set pieces will be key. 3-5-2 can cause them problems if we move the ball early and get round the back of them. Duffy would have been a key player but looks like he's injured. They are likely to sit back and counter quickly on the break a tactic we have struggled to cope with.

No need to go gung ho from the outset as this will suit Cardiff. Blackmans ability to deal with the ball in the air at the back against the likes of Bamba and Morrison will also be a miss so we need to limit the number of set pieces we give away. Most teams have tended to dominate possession against Cardiff so there will be opportunities, we have to take them on the night. The midfield 3 we pick if Duffy is out will be crucial. Top challenge for CW and the team tomorrow they are capable of getting a result if everyone is firing on all cylinders from minute 1-90.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

In answer to the o/p tactics will be determined based on how the opposition set up. Tomorrow we are playing the form team in the league. Strict 4-2-3-1 approach from them. Very tall aggressive and pacy team. Where will it be won and lost well winning the midfield battle and our ability to defend set pieces will be key. 3-5-2 can cause them problems if we move the ball early and get round the back of them. Duffy would have been a key player but looks like he's injured. They are likely to sit back and counter quickly on the break a tactic we have struggled to cope with.

I thought that they were more flexible from what i've seen, although I may be wrong. They seem to set up in variants of 4-3-3/ 4-5-1 or 4-2-3-1. In the 4-3-3, it's hoillet (R) & mendez lang (L) wide with Zahore central & a midfield 3 of ralls/bryson (L), grujic (C) & paterson (R) in the 4-2-3-1, it's ralls and damour in the 2, hoillet, paterson & m-l in the 3. Interestingly, they did line up 3-4-2-1 against Leeds away.

They have the league's best defensive record, and the 3rd best scoring. Their goals are well spread through the team, Patterson (9), Hoilett (8), Zahore (8), Ralls (7), ML (6), Morrison (4) & Bamba (4) and they are useful from set pieces. I would think that they are susceptible to pace at the back rather than physicality. From what I saw of Bamba at Leeds I thought he looked awful, but supposedly Warnock has worked on him, meaning the supposed 1st choice CB Manga plays at RB.

 

[Addison]

I thought that they were more flexible from what i've seen, although I may be wrong. They seem to set up in variants of 4-3-3/ 4-5-1 or 4-2-3-1. In the 4-3-3, it's hoillet (R) & mendez lang (L) wide with Zahore central & a midfield 3 of ralls/bryson (L), grujic (C) & paterson (R) in the 4-2-3-1, it's ralls and damour in the 2, hoillet, paterson & m-l in the 3. Interestingly, they did line up 3-4-2-1 against Leeds away.

They have the league's best defensive record, and the 3rd best scoring. Their goals are well spread through the team, Patterson (9), Hoilett (8), Zahore (8), Ralls (7), ML (6), Morrison (4) & Bamba (4) and they are useful from set pieces. I would think that they are susceptible to pace at the back rather than physicality. From what I saw of Bamba at Leeds I thought he looked awful, but supposedly Warnock has worked on him, meaning the supposed 1st choice CB Manga plays at RB.

Agree 4-2-3-1 becomes 4-5-1 when they are defending in numbers and I expect them to use this during the game to let us play the ball around in front of them. Ralls has been out injured, Bryson covering for him, and Gunnarsson has just returned last game as sub after a lengthy absence with his long throw, so will be interesting to see who Neil Warnock opts for.

If NW goes for it from the off and plays 4-3-3 then that will open the game up and suit us. Knowing the importance of this fixture for him, they will also set a club record of consecutive wins if they get the three points, I'm guessing he will adopt a more cautious approach to start with but who knows.

I don't see CW changing formation 3-5-2 is tried and tested. It hasn't been as effective in recent weeks because our overlapping centre back game has dropped off. Whether thats tactical or down to the players we don't know. It will cause Cardiff problems if Basham and Oconnell get forward like they did earlier in the season. If thats CW going for it then I'm all for that.

 

[blade.i.am]

With only 1 point separating 6 clubs goal difference could be all important; ours is not the best. Tomorrow's game is one where I would settle for a point, a degree of caution and patience wouldn't go amiss. I know it's not the Wilder way and I'm happy with that, but we can't afford another big defeat at the hands of an in form team like Wolves or Fulham.

 

[derfblade.3]

 

[Valleyblade]

Imagine if the first 20 games were swapped for the second 20 games.

We'd be on a rayt run, and confidence would be high, rather like millwall are now...

We've every chance. We really have. Just like everyone else.

 

[Isaw Joeshaw]

Whist I greatly admire what CW has done in turning our club around, I do support the view that , both in terms of team selection and recruitment there is a question mark as to his positivity.

I don't consider taking defenders off and randomly chucking on more attacking players in the late stages of the game in order to try get a draw or win as bravery, but rather desperation brought about by not being positive enough in the first place and sometimes it has backfired on us.

We must be the only team in the top two divisions who have started games without a single creative midfield player or natural winger and this is clearly a contributing factor to our relatively poor goal scoring record since Christmas.

At the same time, other teams who play with both ( e.g Cardiff , Fulham etc.) have gone on to thrive and prosper, whilst at the same time conceding fewer goals.

Whilst ever we continue with a policy of packing our midfield with players who are much of a muchness ( Fleck being the notable exception ) and relying on players who are essentially full backs to provide quality balls to our strikers, I don't see us winning enough games to make it to the play offs.

If CW really is brave there can be no better time for him to show it than now, starting by including any two of Brooks, Duffy or Holmes in our starting line up and giving it a right good go.

We've got fuck all to lose by adopting such a policy so why not ?

 

[Champagneblade]

If fit, I’d like:

Moore
Basham Stearman O’Connell
Baldock Evans Fleck Stevens
Duffy Brooks
Sharp/Clarke

Enough bodies in midfield, enough creativity. I don’t think either striker can complain about being benched after Saturday’s profligacy.

 

[mattbianco1]

Wilder needs to get them up for these last 4 home games in particular in the same way he did for Bolton and Scunthorpe last year

 

[LenTednTony]

Why does no one think Freeman could be the answer? He scored 11 (?) last season, assisted well and was a bloody nuisance to defenders. If he is up and running maybe it is time to bring him back in and let him play out of his skin for a starting berth.

 

[Maidenhead]

Whist I greatly admire what CW has done in turning our club around, I do support the view that , both in terms of team selection and recruitment there is a question mark as to his positivity.

I don't consider taking defenders off and randomly chucking on more attacking players in the late stages of the game in order to try get a draw or win as bravery, but rather desperation brought about by not being positive enough in the first place and sometimes it has backfired on us.

We must be the only team in the top two divisions who have started games without a single creative midfield player or natural winger and this is clearly a contributing factor to our relatively poor goal scoring record since Christmas.

At the same time, other teams who play with both ( e.g Cardiff , Fulham etc.) have gone on to thrive and prosper, whilst at the same time conceding fewer goals.

Whilst ever we continue with a policy of packing our midfield with players who are much of a muchness ( Fleck being the notable exception ) and relying on players who are essentially full backs to provide quality balls to our strikers, I don't see us winning enough games to make it to the play offs.

If CW really is brave there can be no better time for him to show it than now, starting by including any two of Brooks, Duffy or Holmes in our starting line up and giving it a right good go.

We've got fuck all to lose by adopting such a policy so why not ?

Because it will increase our chances of conceding the first goal by more than our chances of scoring the first goal?

And we all know how important the first goal is

 

[Paulus]

Brooks at his best can skip past them regardless of their physique. We need to gamble v Cardiff imo. 60 minutes into the game and it could well be beyond us without Brooks. If we are leading and he's tiring, we can take him off.

Its a huge ask of Brooks to come on and be a game changer after the extremely limited amount of football he has had on what will undoubtedly be a heavy pitch, against a very hardworking team who are full of confidence. We need to stay in it and match them for an hour or so and them see where we are.

 

[1889]

I think Brooks will start with Clarke tonight, let's hope he turns it on against his Welsh colleagues and makes some people, myself included, eat their words as he glides passed the lunging challenges and flying elbows

UTB

 

[bladesmanluke]

Why does no one think Freeman could be the answer? He scored 11 (?) last season, assisted well and was a bloody nuisance to defenders. If he is up and running maybe it is time to bring him back in and let him play out of his skin for a starting berth.

True, but Baldock is clearly a better player. It’s a shame Freeman can’t be shoehorned in somewhere, but we don’t play a formation to accommodate it.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

If fit, I’d like:

Moore
Basham Stearman O’Connell
Baldock Evans Fleck Stevens
Duffy Brooks
Sharp/Clarke

Enough bodies in midfield, enough creativity. I don’t think either striker can complain about being benched after Saturday’s profligacy.

3-4-2-1. A formation Warnock employed for Cardiff v Leeds, and could work for us with our personnel & CW's preference for a back 3, although it would probably better suit CD as the lone forward and you'd probably have to sacrifice the guile of Fleck for more of a destroyer.

Paulo Sousa employed similar at Fiorentina a few seasons ago, and it's discussed in depth below. A little tedious to read through, but interesting for those interested in formations, etc.

https://theinsidechannel.com/a-guide-to-paulo-sousas-tactics-at-fiorentina/

https://runningtheshowblog.wordpres...g-paulo-sousas-innovative-fiorentina-tactics/

 

[snootyfenooty]

If fit, I’d like:

Moore
Basham Stearman O’Connell
Baldock Evans Fleck Stevens
Duffy Brooks
Sharp/Clarke

Enough bodies in midfield, enough creativity. I don’t think either striker can complain about being benched after Saturday’s profligacy.

The striker conundrum is staring us in the face. Brooks. When will everyone grasp the fact that this is what he is.

 

[Isaw Joeshaw]

If fit, I’d like:

Moore
Basham Stearman O’Connell
Baldock Evans Fleck Stevens
Duffy Brooks
Sharp/Clarke

Enough bodies in midfield, enough creativity. I don’t think either striker can complain about being benched after Saturday’s profligacy.

Nowt wrong wi' that. I'd be well 'appeh but can't see it happening.

Shame.

 

[Isaw Joeshaw]

The striker conundrum is staring us in the face. Brooks. When will everyone grasp the fact that this is what he is.

Nah, look what happened when they tried to turn that Thierry Henry into a striker.

Oh, hang on .....

 

[Woodwardfan]

Well Wilder answered the question asked by the o.p. - he played Brooks instead of Sharp. That was a bold move and it paid off in terms of fluidity and threat.

Brooks' movement dragged Carfiff all over the place and we built moves at pace with plenty of options for the man in possession.

 

[Woodwardfan]

I think what I'm saying is that Clarke leads the line better without Sharp there and Brooks gives the front line more depth and variety.

It's not quite Brooks for Duffy, it's Brooks instead of Sharp or Donaldson or Wilson. Play two strikers plus Brooks and we would be a bit less solid defensively.

 

[Sheffsteel]

Brooks' movement dragged Carfiff all over the place and we built moves at pace with plenty of options for the man in possession.

We were saying that Brooks often miscontrolled it or played the wrong pass, so he was under par (by his standards)
But we all said that his presence gave us an extra dimension, his clever movement was pulling the Cardiff defenders all over the place.

We also said that Leon might not be the greatest finisher but he’s more than a furnished.
Unlike our other strikers, Leon can play as a target man holding up the ball and also his link play is really good.

In fact some of the link up between Brooks and Leon looked really dangerous and promising.

 

[Sean Thornton]

We were saying that Brooks often miscontrolled it or played the wrong pass, so he was under par (by his standards)
But we all said that his presence gave us an extra dimension, his clever movement was pulling the Cardiff defenders all over the place.

We also said that Leon might not be the greatest finisher but he’s more than a furnished.
Unlike our other strikers, Leon can play as a target man holding up the ball and also his link play is really good.

In fact some of the link up between Brooks and Leon looked really dangerous and promising.

Someone said Leon was rubbish until he scored......

 

[Kevincarterversion2.0]

Wilder has pretty much always been brave and gone for it - he will do the same for the run-in.

 

[bornablade]

Now's the time for bravery. 5 games to go. Target has to be 15 points. The picture has altered from the start of this thread.

A point against Middlesbrough and Millwall respectively will not be enough due to the fact we are now running out of games.

Go for it Chris and let's all get behind them starting Tuesday night.

 

[BigBed]

I think with 7 to go, take a risk with the youngsters, why not, even if we scrape into the playoffs, and it would be purely on luck, because they're not playing anything like they actually want it!, we aren't going to beat Fulham, I think most would agree, they'll be the 3rd team to go up.

 

[Woodwardfan]

Now's the time for bravery. 5 games to go. Target has to be 15 points. The picture has altered from the start of this thread.

A point against Middlesbrough and Millwall respectively will not be enough due to the fact we are now running out of games.

Go for it Chris and let's all get behind them starting Tuesday night.

It's a question of what 'going for it" is.

He's picked Brooks to start the last two games - a change intended to be positive.

I agree he should change more.On the other hand we were so good at Brentford and the last home game v Cardiff


I have an idea he'll play Duffy and Holmes at the expense of Evans and Brooks.

Could he drop Stevens too?

Might he go 4-5-1?

4-4-2.?

Last Chance Saloon. It's still there to go for though. Others will drop points and the next two are rivals.