Who Is For The Drop?

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Kenilworth

Fuck The Falccid Franchise.
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IF Micky gets his first win and we start to accumulate some points, which of the teams above us do you think we can overtake?

Scunny and Preston appear to be struggling worse than we are (despite Scunny having played two games fewer). So they just have to be the buffer zone - I think they will both drop. Phil Brown seems to be just as unlucky as we have been and is not making any real impact at Deepdale.

Ipshize seem to have turned the corner with Jewel now in the driving seat - they appear to have a much better squad and the ability to get some quality in through the loan market. - Mid table, touching a late Play Off surge.

Bristol City are still struggling and they concede a fair few goals. They have picked up a little of late but recently results seem to be dipping back to those of a few months ago. They have speculated and brought players in who must be costing them a few bob but the net result doesn't appear to be a vast improvement - catchable in my view.

Coventry are the perennial chokers and seem to defy the drop by just a couple of points purely on their early season form. They have dropped like a stone recently and Boothroyd will do well to stop the rot - but he has the pedigree to do so. I think Cov will still finish above us - but only just.

Portsmouth appear to be in self destruct one week and smash and grab the next. They are in deep doo-doo but have players of far greater ability than we have. The size of their squad may cause them problems if they get a few injuries and cannot take any more loans on. Still expect for them to finish a couple of places above us come May.

Middlesbrough are very poor and their own plight seems not too dissimilar to our own - where they have shed all the silver and promising academy players only to have replaced them with ageing journeymen. 3-4 at home to Swans must have been very demoralising for them. Expect them to continue to slide and one of the sides we could get above if we string a few results together.

Derby are imploding alarmingly, just like ourselves. They cannot seem to buy a win and are getting beaten all too easily, especially at home - Leicester being the last victors there - but without anywhere near as much fight as we seem to be putting up. Losing experienced players, conceding soft goals, they are as cash strapped as anyone in the division, it seems. We have a good chance of getting above Derby if we improve under MA this month and keeping the pressure on them.

Crystal Palace has to be one of the teams we get on top of and stay above. They have some decent youth players but their lack of experience could cost them. If we win tonight we will be out of the bottom three and Palace will drop into it on GD. It will be nip and tuck between the two but at least we will not have to face them in a game of shit or bust at the end of the campaign like the pigs did last year. Given our propensity to bottle big games of any significance I would not entertain any idea of us gaining a victory under such circumstances. Worried about this one - they could pick up enough points to beat us to the punch.

What about Donny? Everyone's blue eyed poppet. Dropping like a stone and only 9 points above the drop. Small squad on limited resources - if they pick up a few more key injuries by having some of the same kind of luck we have had this season then they could be dragged into it. That would put a few noses out of joint wouldn't it?

For me the conclusion is that our best opportunity is to hope that Scunny and Preston continue their form and take two of the three places. We can then escape by climbing above any of the following teams:
Palace
Derby
Boro
Bristol

I don't think we will better any of the others so hold on to your sphincters 'cos this is going to be a very uncomfortable ride.
 

I'm pretty confident we'll finish above Preston and Scunny. As for the rest, I can see nothing but a neck and neck race between us and Palace from now until the end of the season. The only other team I could see getting dragged into it are Bristol City. The rest will be fine I think.
 
I may be suffering from delusion, but all our next five games would appear to be winnable. If we could get on a roll, starting tonight, who knows?
 
I think it's essential that we don't lose in Feb. As Broomhill says these games are winnable and we just need a bit more luck than we had on Saturday to get us going. Lose tonight and Saturday away at Palace could signal the end of our hopes
 
I may be suffering from delusion, but all our next five games would appear to be winnable. If we could get on a roll, starting tonight, who knows?

Are you Fleety's Dad perchance Broomhill??
 
We have every chance of winning tonight. Unlucky against Millwall (yet more poor decision making punished)
 
I'm pretty confident we'll finish above Preston and Scunny. As for the rest, I can see nothing but a neck and neck race between us and Palace from now until the end of the season. The only other team I could see getting dragged into it are Bristol City. The rest will be fine I think.

I agree 100% can't see donny getting dragged in don't they have games in hand? Our remaining games in march and April worry me, we could do with a miracle bit of luck like QPR being promoted when we play them and Swansea being in the playoffs and resting players on the last day.
 
I think it's essential that we don't lose in Feb. As Broomhill says these games are winnable and we just need a bit more luck than we had on Saturday to get us going. Lose tonight and Saturday away at Palace could signal the end of our hopes

We already have twice.
 
we need a win badly and i fear it could be us down if we dont start winning i hate it where we are in the league the table doesnt lie.
 
IF Micky gets his first win and we start to accumulate some points, which of the teams above us do you think we can overtake?

Scunny and Preston appear to be struggling worse than we are (despite Scunny having played two games fewer). So they just have to be the buffer zone - I think they will both drop. Phil Brown seems to be just as unlucky as we have been and is not making any real impact at Deepdale.

Ipshize seem to have turned the corner with Jewel now in the driving seat - they appear to have a much better squad and the ability to get some quality in through the loan market. - Mid table, touching a late Play Off surge.

Bristol City are still struggling and they concede a fair few goals. They have picked up a little of late but recently results seem to be dipping back to those of a few months ago. They have speculated and brought players in who must be costing them a few bob but the net result doesn't appear to be a vast improvement - catchable in my view.

Coventry are the perennial chokers and seem to defy the drop by just a couple of points purely on their early season form. They have dropped like a stone recently and Boothroyd will do well to stop the rot - but he has the pedigree to do so. I think Cov will still finish above us - but only just.

Portsmouth appear to be in self destruct one week and smash and grab the next. They are in deep doo-doo but have players of far greater ability than we have. The size of their squad may cause them problems if they get a few injuries and cannot take any more loans on. Still expect for them to finish a couple of places above us come May.

Middlesbrough are very poor and their own plight seems not too dissimilar to our own - where they have shed all the silver and promising academy players only to have replaced them with ageing journeymen. 3-4 at home to Swans must have been very demoralising for them. Expect them to continue to slide and one of the sides we could get above if we string a few results together.

Crystal Palace has to be one of the teams we get on top of and stay above. They have some decent youth players but their lack of experience could cost them. If we win tonight we will be out of the bottom three and Palace will drop into it on GD. It will be nip and tuck between the two but at least we will not have to face them in a game of shit or bust at the end of the campaign like the pigs did last year. Given our propensity to bottle big games of any significance I would not entertain any idea of us gaining a victory under such circumstances. Worried about this one - they could pick up enough points to beat us to the punch.

What about Donny? Everyone's blue eyed poppet. Dropping like a stone and only 9 points above the drop. Small squad on limited resources - if they pick up a few more key injuries by having some of the same kind of luck we have had this season then they could be dragged into it. That would put a few noses out of joint wouldn't it?

For me the conclusion is that our best opportunity is to hope that Scunny and Preston continue their form and take two of the three places. We can then escape by climbing above any of the following teams:
Palace
Derby
Boro
Bristol

I don't think we will better any of the others so hold on to your sphincters 'cos this is going to be a very uncomfortable ride.

Why have you not mentioned Derby?
 
This week only the bottom 3 have 2 games:

Us at home to Reading tonight and away at Palace on Saturday

Scunny at home to Forest tomorrow and away to Derby on Saturday

Preston away to Watford tonight and home to QPR on Saturday

I can see Preston and Scunny getting nil points from those games and I think we need 4 at least.

Palace are obviously at home to us on Saturday, Boro are away at Millwall (could go either way), Bristol City are away at Leicester on Friday night (Svennis should win), Pompey are home to Barnsley on Saturday (should win but the Dingles keep getting surprise results) and Derby are at home to Scunny (think Derby'll win but would like Scunny to pick up at least a point, especially if we get something).

We need to reel in Boro and the 3 on 35 points. I'd plump for Bristol City getting back in the mire out of that lot.
 
I agree 100% can't see donny getting dragged in don't they have games in hand? Our remaining games in march and April worry me, we could do with a miracle bit of luck like QPR being promoted when we play them and Swansea being in the playoffs and resting players on the last day.

Donny 3 down at half time. Killa bencher. They are sliding. Lost 6 of last 7 soon to be 7 of 8.
Stranger things have happened.
 

Right, I've added Donny to my drop-watch list - played 30 on 37 points and away at Swansea on Saturday so probably no points there.
 
Loving the optimism, about as blind as can be. Always say the best decider on who will be down there and who deserves to be there isn't just points, its goal difference. Donny are a sure bet to be there at the end of the season because they are leaking badly. The rest are streets ahead of us because they are havent been leaking goals all season like we have. We can't buy a win and I think its actually any three from four, but you can add Donny to make it interesting. And Sitwell can crack one off if they go down because they are all that is bad in the world. My biggest concern is that we have 15 games and need to secure three more wins than Donny do at the end of the season to even get above them. If our home form was even something like then I could see us getting out of it, but we are worse at home than we are away.

16 Doncaster 30 -13 37
17 Derby 30 -3 35
18 Portsmouth 30 -5 35
19 Bristol City 31 -11 35
20 Middlesbrough 30 -5 33
21 Crystal Palace 31 -21 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22 Sheff Utd 31 -21 29
23 Scunthorpe 28 -25 24
24 Preston 30 -25 22
 
IF Micky gets his first win and we start to accumulate some points, which of the teams above us do you think we can overtake?

Scunny and Preston appear to be struggling worse than we are (despite Scunny having played two games fewer). So they just have to be the buffer zone - I think they will both drop. Phil Brown seems to be just as unlucky as we have been and is not making any real impact at Deepdale.

Ipshize seem to have turned the corner with Jewel now in the driving seat - they appear to have a much better squad and the ability to get some quality in through the loan market. - Mid table, touching a late Play Off surge.

Bristol City are still struggling and they concede a fair few goals. They have picked up a little of late but recently results seem to be dipping back to those of a few months ago. They have speculated and brought players in who must be costing them a few bob but the net result doesn't appear to be a vast improvement - catchable in my view.

Coventry are the perennial chokers and seem to defy the drop by just a couple of points purely on their early season form. They have dropped like a stone recently and Boothroyd will do well to stop the rot - but he has the pedigree to do so. I think Cov will still finish above us - but only just.

Portsmouth appear to be in self destruct one week and smash and grab the next. They are in deep doo-doo but have players of far greater ability than we have. The size of their squad may cause them problems if they get a few injuries and cannot take any more loans on. Still expect for them to finish a couple of places above us come May.

Middlesbrough are very poor and their own plight seems not too dissimilar to our own - where they have shed all the silver and promising academy players only to have replaced them with ageing journeymen. 3-4 at home to Swans must have been very demoralising for them. Expect them to continue to slide and one of the sides we could get above if we string a few results together.

Derby are imploding alarmingly, just like ourselves. They cannot seem to buy a win and are getting beaten all too easily, especially at home - Leicester being the last victors there - but without anywhere near as much fight as we seem to be putting up. Losing experienced players, conceding soft goals, they are as cash strapped as anyone in the division, it seems. We have a good chance of getting above Derby if we improve under MA this month and keeping the pressure on them.

Crystal Palace has to be one of the teams we get on top of and stay above. They have some decent youth players but their lack of experience could cost them. If we win tonight we will be out of the bottom three and Palace will drop into it on GD. It will be nip and tuck between the two but at least we will not have to face them in a game of shit or bust at the end of the campaign like the pigs did last year. Given our propensity to bottle big games of any significance I would not entertain any idea of us gaining a victory under such circumstances. Worried about this one - they could pick up enough points to beat us to the punch.

What about Donny? Everyone's blue eyed poppet. Dropping like a stone and only 9 points above the drop. Small squad on limited resources - if they pick up a few more key injuries by having some of the same kind of luck we have had this season then they could be dragged into it. That would put a few noses out of joint wouldn't it?

For me the conclusion is that our best opportunity is to hope that Scunny and Preston continue their form and take two of the three places. We can then escape by climbing above any of the following teams:
Palace
Derby
Boro
Bristol

I don't think we will better any of the others so hold on to your sphincters 'cos this is going to be a very uncomfortable ride.

I'm pretty confident we'll finish above Preston and Scunny. As for the rest, I can see nothing but a neck and neck race between us and Palace from now until the end of the season. The only other team I could see getting dragged into it are Bristol City. The rest will be fine I think.

For me Preston and Scunny are down. We'll finish above them, but maybe go down. It will be a dog fight between us and Palace I believe. However, I think that Bristol could get pulled into the mix and so could Doncaster. I still expect Boro, Pompey and Derby to pull away (as I think Barnsley will be safe).

We really are relying on how bad other teams are, but I just cannot see us winning games at the minute. We seemed destined not to win games. The games we pay well in, we have been unlcuky. However we have put in some dire performances. If we have not won in 2011 and Adams hasn't had a win in 8(9) games, then who the fuck are we going to beat.

A (blade) mate of mine lives near Reading and listened to the game on Radio Berkshire last night. The commentators said United were the worst team they had seen all season and just could not see us getting out the the hole we are in. I mentioned this to a Palace fan I used to work with and his reponse was "Thise Radio Berks commentators have short memories. Palace put in a truly awful operformance and lost 3 nil at Reading a few months ago, which cannot have been any better than United'. Sums it up really. Who is worse? It's anybodies guess (though this Saturday should tell us something).

Loving the optimism, about as blind as can be. Always say the best decider on who will be down there and who deserves to be there isn't just points, its goal difference. Donny are a sure bet to be there at the end of the season because they are leaking badly. The rest are streets ahead of us because they are havent been leaking goals all season like we have. We can't buy a win and I think its actually any three from four, but you can add Donny to make it interesting. And Sitwell can crack one off if they go down because they are all that is bad in the world. My biggest concern is that we have 15 games and need to secure three more wins than Donny do at the end of the season to even get above them. If our home form was even something like then I could see us getting out of it, but we are worse at home than we are away.

16 Doncaster 30 -13 37
17 Derby 30 -3 35
18 Portsmouth 30 -5 35
19 Bristol City 31 -11 35
20 Middlesbrough 30 -5 33
21 Crystal Palace 31 -21 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22 Sheff Utd 31 -21 29
23 Scunthorpe 28 -25 24
24 Preston 30 -25 22

Top post. Very interesting. I've argued until the cows come home about the league table lying and goals difference being a better indicator of form (I can't be arsed to get into it again - so save it) than points and this (at least) offers a different persepective.

If we could only string a couple of wins together (the next 3 games has to be our best chance!) then the picture would completely change.

For me it is a 2 horse (well 3 legged rabid donkey) race between us and Palace, but things can change very quickly in this division ....
 
Very hard to see beyond the current bottom three.
Our only hope is to get a slice of genuine quality in, probably out wide or someone with the ability of Reid, to make a significant difference.
We've known this since Reid left and have instead shuffled the deckchairs and wasted precious matches along the way.
 
Very hard to see beyond the current bottom three.
Our only hope is to get a slice of genuine quality in, probably out wide or someone with the ability of Reid, to make a significant difference.
We've known this since Reid left and have instead shuffled the deckchairs and wasted precious matches along the way.

Fair point lenners. Reid made a significant contribution because he could control a game or add that bit of quality at crucial times to make the difference. There are no players at the club now that have such ability, something that can turn a draw into a narrow win or a narrow defeat into a draw. Riise may have something about him but how long might it be before he goes through the motions. Can he control the midfield and will he and Willo be the answer to the supply problem the forwards have had for the last 18 months?

---------- Post added at 01:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:35 PM ----------

Loving the optimism, about as blind as can be. Always say the best decider on who will be down there and who deserves to be there isn't just points, its goal difference. Donny are a sure bet to be there at the end of the season because they are leaking badly. The rest are streets ahead of us because they are havent been leaking goals all season like we have. We can't buy a win and I think its actually any three from four, but you can add Donny to make it interesting. And Sitwell can crack one off if they go down because they are all that is bad in the world. My biggest concern is that we have 15 games and need to secure three more wins than Donny do at the end of the season to even get above them. If our home form was even something like then I could see us getting out of it, but we are worse at home than we are away.

16 Doncaster 30 -13 37
17 Derby 30 -3 35
18 Portsmouth 30 -5 35
19 Bristol City 31 -11 35
20 Middlesbrough 30 -5 33
21 Crystal Palace 31 -21 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22 Sheff Utd 31 -21 29
23 Scunthorpe 28 -25 24
24 Preston 30 -25 22


Agree with you on GD that's why my original assessment had Donny well and truly in the mix. SO'D was bleating about injuries last night - welcome to our world.

Wouldn't take too long for GD to turn itself around if a club with -20 has 5 wins on the bounce or 5 wins out of 7 and a club (Bristol) with -11 takes a dive for four or five on the trot. Ipshize have done the magic turn and are flying now - but they resisted selling their academy stars and have gone for an experienced manager at Champ level.

The form table and the rate of change in GD (+ve or -ve) are good leading indicators of current performance and direction. The league table is a snapshot in time and purely historical.
 
Ipswich have also spent silly money on Jimmy Bullard's wages. And he seems to be doing the business for them.
 
Ipswich have also spent silly money on Jimmy Bullard's wages. And he seems to be doing the business for them.

Its not silly money if it drags you up the division instead of out of it. And I wonder how much we have whiffed up the wall on loanees wages when someone like Bullard could well have made a difference.
 
Ipswich have also spent silly money on Jimmy Bullard's wages. And he seems to be doing the business for them.

Actually they are only paying around half of his wages (a reported 20-22k a week). Whe you consider the likes of Monty, Britton previously, Henderson, Simmo (maybe add Cressy, Quinn and Morgs to that) over 10k a week then it doesn't seem like a bad move.

How much do you think Reid was getting pai JD?

Exactly. Some quality in midfield to pull the strings and control the game.

Exactly. It would be worth busting the bank to get someone in now*. If you calculated the loss in revenue from gates, season ticket sales, tv money and prize money from going down then I am sure it would be more cost effective to bring someone in on 40/50k a week if they were to keep us up!**



* the question is could Micky Adams attract someone? Speed did, but he has a big rep (as a player).
** quick calc - 30k a week (even if we got a big star then we would not pay all the wages) for 15 weeks until ealry May) would cost us around 400k. It would only take around 200 lost season tickets to make cover that (£230x2000=450k). Of course there would be bonuses, signing on fee etc but there would also be tv revenue, average gates etc that would account for that.
 
So Scunny beat Forrest last night and suddenly they are 2 points behind us with 2 games in hand. They are wank, but can they defy the law of gravity and stay up again? they have Derby at home on Saturday (a winnable game) and then us at home (another winnable game!!?).

There is all this talk about who will join Scunny and Preston, but we could be below Scunny by 10pm on Tuesday!? It doesn't even bode thinking about!? :eek: :(

(Personally I think Scunthorpe are the worst team in the League and I also put £300 on them to go down - at 3/1 - at the start of the season. For more reason one I don't want the fookers staying up!!?)
 
So Scunny beat Forrest last night and suddenly they are 2 points behind us with 2 games in hand. They are wank, but can they defy the law of gravity and stay up again? they have Derby at home on Saturday (a winnable game) and then us at home (another winnable game!!?).

There is all this talk about who will join Scunny and Preston, but we could be below Scunny by 10pm on Tuesday!? It doesn't even bode thinking about!? :eek: :(

(Personally I think Scunthorpe are the worst team in the League and I also put £300 on them to go down - at 3/1 - at the start of the season. For more reason one I don't want the fookers staying up!!?)

I saw that result last night and the same thoughts crossed my mind. Unthinkable that we could end up being below a side as poor as Scunny but at the same time....why not?!.....they licked us 4-0 on our own patch! :eek:

They are also our ultimate bogey team. I cant remember the last time we beat them and my old fella can only remember the one time (back in the 80's). Bearing that in mind the next week doesnt look good for us. We just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope.

What a mess.
 

They are also our ultimate bogey team. I cant remember the last time we beat them and my old fella can only remember the one time (back in the 80's). Bearing that in mind the next week doesnt look good for us. We just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope.

Results at Scunthorpe in the past 30 years

20/02/1982 Scunthorpe 2 1 Sheff Utd
27/03/1984 Scunthorpe 1 1 Sheff Utd
01/09/2007 Scunthorpe 3 2 Sheff Utd
17/10/2009 Scunthorpe 3 1 Sheff Utd

and at BDTBL:

26/09/1981 Sheff Utd 1 0 Scunthorpe
01/11/1983 Sheff Utd 5 3 Scunthorpe
09/02/2008 Sheff Utd 0 0 Scunthorpe
28/03/2010 Sheff Utd 0 1 Scunthorpe
14/09/2010 Sheff Utd 0 4 Scunthorpe
 

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