WB's 'Have we improved on last season?' thread

[Elsecar_Blade]

Started this after the match at Derby - will continue it after each game. I know it's just a bit of number crunching and means not much but it should provide an indicator of where we are likely to finish. The aim hs got be to improve by 12 points in the season as that would equal 92 points (2 per game) and would have been promotion in each of the last ten seasons.

Comparing our results to last season's correspnding results to see how we improve/fall back. Obviously some sides will improve, others will decline but it should even out and give us an idea of where we're heading.

With Wolves, Birmingham and Burnley in the Premiership, I used their league positions to swap them with the relegated Premiership teams, i.e. Newcastle were 18th in Premier League so replace Wolves. Ditto with the promoted clubs from League 1 and replacing the relegated teams.

Therefore: Newcastle = Wolves; Middlesbrough = Birmingham; West Brom = Burnley; Leicester = Norwich; Peterborough = Southampton; Scunthorpe = Charlton.

Last season: we finished with a goal difference of +25 and 80 points.

Opponents           V  Score   LastS    |   Points     GD     |     Improvement
                                        |                     |     Pts     GD
========================================|=====================|================
                                        |                     |
Middlesbrough       A   0-0     0-1     |     +1       +1     |      81     26
                                        |                     |
Watford             H   2-0     2-1     |     --       +1     |      81     27
                                        |                     |
Leicester           H   1-1     1-0     |     -2       -1     |      79     26
                                        |                     |
Reading             A   3-1     1-0     |     --       +1     |      79     27
                                        |                     |
West Brom           H   2-2     2-3     |     +1       +1     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Derby County        A   1-0     1-2     |     +3       +2     |      83     30
                                        |                     |
Coventry City       A   2-3     1-0     |     -3       -2     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Wednesday           H   ---     1-2     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Swansea             A   ---     1-1     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Ipswich             H   ---     1-0     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Doncaster           H   ---     0-1     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Scunthorpe          A   ---     5-2     |     --       --     |      --     --

As of the Coventry City (a) game, we are currently on the same number of points as last season (80) but have an improved goal difference of 28 (+3 on last season).

Our current predicted record would (in the last ten seasons) would have seen us finish in the following places:

Champions: 0
2nd: 1
3rd: 3
4th: 4
5th: 2
6th: 0
Out of Play Offs: 0
Bottom Half: 0
Relegated: 0

If we achieve last seasons results for the rest of the season, we would most likely be in the Play Offs with home advantage in the second leg (70%) but would only be automatically promoted on 10% of occasions. We would make the Play Offs.

In the next five games, we took 7 points last season with a goal difference of +2 - the games against Doncaster and Wednesday look particularly important for achieving a better record in 2009/2010 than last season.

UTB!

 

[Linz]

Bloody hell... rather you than me keeping track of all that

 

[WorkingtonBlade]

An interesting thread. Can it be made a 'sticky' to avoid having to keep searching for it after each game?

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Bloody hell... rather you than me keeping track of all that

It'll take five minutes after each game - change result, add improvement or decline, check league tables and add next game. It might add a little perspective at times though to those who shout that we are doomed!

 

[H. Metal Blade]

good post WB - thanks!

 

[moDtheGod]

Somehow managed to miss this thread. Pleased I've found it though, I'm a stats fan myself and it should make for interesting reading.

 

[themaninblack]

Nice work WB!

 

[shorehamview]

Christ, that's anorak-tastic!

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Am going to enjoy updating this one!

Comparing our results to last season's corresponding results to see how we improve/fall back. Obviously some sides will improve, others will decline but it should even out and give us an idea of where we're heading.

With Wolves, Birmingham and Burnley in the Premiership, I used their league positions to swap them with the relegated Premiership teams, i.e. Newcastle were 18th in Premier League so replace Wolves. Ditto with the promoted clubs from League 1 and replacing the relegated teams.

Therefore: Newcastle = Wolves; Middlesbrough = Birmingham; West Brom = Burnley; Leicester = Norwich; Peterborough = Southampton; Scunthorpe = Charlton.

Last season: we finished with a goal difference of +25 and 80 points.

Opponents           V  Score   LastS    |   Points     GD     |     Improvement
                                        |                     |     Pts     GD
========================================|=====================|================
                                        |                     |
Middlesbrough       A   0-0     0-1     |     +1       +1     |      81     26
                                        |                     |
Watford             H   2-0     2-1     |     --       +1     |      81     27
                                        |                     |
Leicester           H   1-1     1-0     |     -2       -1     |      79     26
                                        |                     |
Reading             A   3-1     1-0     |     --       +1     |      79     27
                                        |                     |
West Brom           H   2-2     2-3     |     +1       +1     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Derby County        A   1-0     1-2     |     +3       +2     |      83     30
                                        |                     |
Coventry City       A   2-3     1-0     |     -3       -2     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Wednesday           H   3-2     1-2     |     +3       +2     |      83     30
                                        |                     |
Swansea             A   ---     1-1     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Ipswich             H   ---     1-0     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Doncaster           H   ---     0-1     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Scunthorpe          A   ---     5-2     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Blackpool           A   ---     3-1     |     --       --     |      --     --

After the Steel City derby, we are three points better off this season and five goals better off. What a pity we couldn’t complete the massacre! However, a wins and win and that’s the statistic we’re most bothered about!

Our current predicted record would (in the last ten seasons) would have seen us finish in the following places:

Champions: 1
2nd: 1
3rd: 3
4th: 5
5th: 0
6th: 0
Out of Play Offs: 0
Bottom Half: 0
Relegated: 0

If we achieve last season’s results for the rest of the season, we would most likely be in the Play Offs with home advantage in the second leg (80%) but would only be automatically promoted on 20% of occasions. We would make the Play Offs. We would finish no lower than 4th.

In the next five games, we took 10 points last season with a goal difference of +5. Doncaster remains important but the trip to Blackpool could prove tricky to match last season’s tally.

All bounce – if you’ve beat the Pigs!

UTB!

 

[boo radley]

You tea total mad idiot -Bloody fantastic - STAR - are you an accountant as well?
I suppose you also like Cricket.
11.54pm, Man you should be drunk, not adding stats, Thank you.

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Like I said, it took five minutes. Couldn't drink - medicine.

 

[Kenilworth]

Surpised Darren hasn't picked this one up.
Last season we won 2-1 at the Tesco Extra in Coventry.
Bromby (dubious) and Morgan were the scorers for Blades.

 

[Trevor Hockey]

Wombwell this is brilliant - thank you so very much it does help to keep perspective.

On a personal note I feel we are already a better team than this time last season and that there is still 15%-20% more to come!

UTB

 

[Tony Currie]

Great Stuff Wombwell.

Could I make a request/suggestion that you plot this on a graph - this season v last?

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Yeah, can't see why the graph would be a problem. Will start tomorrow.

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Comparing our results to last season's corresponding results to see how we improve/fall back. Obviously some sides will improve, others will decline but it should even out and give us an idea of where we're heading.

With Wolves, Birmingham and Burnley in the Premiership, I used their league positions to swap them with the relegated Premiership teams, i.e. Newcastle were 18th in Premier League so replace Wolves. Ditto with the promoted clubs from League 1 and replacing the relegated teams.

Therefore: Newcastle = Wolves; Middlesbrough = Birmingham; West Brom = Burnley; Leicester = Norwich; Peterborough = Southampton; Scunthorpe = Charlton.

Last season: we finished with a goal difference of +25 and 80 points.

Opponents           V  Score   LastS    |   Points     GD     |     Improvement
                                        |                     |     Pts     GD
========================================|=====================|================
                                        |                     |
Middlesbrough       A   0-0     0-1     |     +1       +1     |      81     26
                                        |                     |
Watford             H   2-0     2-1     |     --       +1     |      81     27
                                        |                     |
Leicester           H   1-1     1-0     |     -2       -1     |      79     26
                                        |                     |
Reading             A   3-1     1-0     |     --       +1     |      79     27
                                        |                     |
West Brom           H   2-2     2-3     |     +1       +1     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Derby County        A   1-0     1-2     |     +3       +2     |      83     30
                                        |                     |
Coventry City       A   2-3     2-1     |     -3       -2     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Wednesday           H   3-2     1-2     |     +3       +2     |      83     30
                                        |                     |
Swansea             A   1-2     1-1     |     -1       -1     |      82     29
                                        |                     |
Ipswich             H   ---     1-0     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Doncaster           H   ---     0-1     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Scunthorpe          A   ---     5-2     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Blackpool           A   ---     3-1     |     --       --     |      --     -- 
                                        |                     |
Cardiff             H   ---     0-0     |     --       --     |      --     --

After the disappointment of the defeat at the Liberty Stadium, there has been quite a lot of unrest from supporters. However, perspective is needed. We are on track to finish two points better off this season if we match our results of last season. With two home games to come this week, I would expect to see us 5 points up on last season by next Saturday – Ipswich are dire and we should be able to beat Donny. Mind you, I said that last season as well!

Our current predicted record would (in the last ten seasons) would have seen us finish in the following places:

Champions: 1
2nd: 0
3rd: 4
4th: 5
5th: 0
6th: 0
Out of Play Offs: 0
Bottom Half: 0
Relegated: 0

If we achieve last season’s results for the rest of the season, we would most likely be in the Play Offs with home advantage in the second leg (90%) but would only be automatically promoted on 10% of occasions. We would make the Play Offs. We would finish no lower than 4th.

In the next five games, we took 10 points last season with a goal difference of +6. Doncaster remains important but the trip to Blackpool could prove tricky to match last season’s tally. Cardiff at home – having seen them yesterday at Swillsborough on Father-in-law’s ticket – should be an opportunity to score points.

UTB!

 

[Tony Currie]

Wombwell glad to see the Stats and Graph proving we are doing better than last season - Also it is worth bearing in mind we have had on paper a tougher start.

 

[Ed Chevans]

Good skills Womby.

 

[WorkingtonBlade]

Wombwell glad to see the Stats and Graph proving we are doing better than last season - Also it is worth bearing in mind we have had on paper a tougher start.

The analysis isn't comparing our first x games. It's comparing our performance against the same teams last season (or their replacements).

However, if you do simply look at the first 9 games, you get a similarly positive picture - 15 points from the first 9 games this season, compared to 13 points last season.

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

The analysis isn't comparing our first x games. It's comparing our performance against the same teams last season (or their replacements).

However, if you do simply look at the first 9 games, you get a similarly positive picture - 15 points from the first 9 games this season, compared to 13 points last season.

Correct.

I think comparisons between the first nine last season and this season are less accurate than this method. There are more factors to produce fluctuations making it less relevant. If you look at the league table two seasons on the bounce, most teams end up not far from their position the previous season. So it is safe to assume that comparing the results like I am will give a decent picture of where we're at.

For the record, I think we will need in the region of 90 points this season to go up automatically. 15 points from first 9 is decent but needed to be 2/3 higher. Think we're heading to the Play Offs (even at this early stage!)

 

[Selly]

Correct.

I think comparisons between the first nine last season and this season are less accurate than this method. There are more factors to produce fluctuations making it less relevant. If you look at the league table two seasons on the bounce, most teams end up not far from their position the previous season. So it is safe to assume that comparing the results like I am will give a decent picture of where we're at.

But wouldn`t you also accept that teams tend to play differently depending on the time of the season that it is. I think it is useful to use both measures. By most peoples reckoning this seasons start was trickier than last seasons, yet we are 2 points up on where we were after nine games, but also 2 points up on the same games last season.

bear in mind under Blackie we seem to finish the season strongly. Tracking where we are after x games allows us to see if we are going to have to win load of games towards the end of the season again.

For the record, I think we will need in the region of 90 points this season to go up automatically. 15 points from first 9 is decent but needed to be 2/3 higher. Think we're heading to the Play Offs (even at this early stage!)

Not sure I agree with that, if we gain 2 points every 9 games, we'll be 10 up on where we were last season come the last game of the season.

Having said that i have a sneeking suspicion that a team could end up with 90 points and end up 3rd this year.

EDIT: Sorry just re-read that and it sounded a little critical. FWIW I have been comparing like for like results for United for ages (with the exception of the year in the PL), nice to see someone go to the bother of posting it on a forum!!!

 

[WorkingtonBlade]

I think both comparisons have validity, and the fact that at this moment both comparisons give the same answer - that we are 2 points better off over 9 games - increases the signficance.

Most seasons Wombwell's analysis has one main weakness: although it is the only logical decision to replace promoted teams with relegated teams and vice versa, in reality teams relegated from the Prem have tended to perform signficiantly less well than the promoted teams they replace, where as teams promoted from Div 1 have tended to perform signficiantly better than the relegated teams they replace.

This season, however, the relegated teams have done well (so far), and the promoted teams fairly poorly, which minimises the weakness so strengthens the analysis.

The other big factor is, of course, how everyone else does. Last season the division seemed pretty even. Anyone could beat anyone, and you never felt that it would need a huge points total to finish in the top 2. This season is looking a bit different so far, with certain teams looking much stronger than others. This means we are likely to need more points for automatic promotion. Maybe this thread should include a prediction of the points total needed for to finish 2nd, and of the total needed to finish 6th, based upon the points per game which the teams in these positions currently have.

As is always the way, those figures then opens up a whole lot more possibilities for examining the points United need from the remaining games, compared to the points they got from playing those same teams last year. Aren't statistics great....

 

[blades1889]

no fuk off bladwell

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Apologies for lack of update - been ill. Will get it sorted ASAP.

 

[Worksop II]

Apologies for lack of update - been ill. Will get it sorted ASAP.

Oi Linz, has this chuff sent a sick note in ?

Gets us all excited wiv his graphs and the like ......

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Am back, sorry for the delay. I'm thinking that I will use different graphs at different times otherwise it'll get a little boring. WB

Comparing our results to last season's corresponding results to see how we improve/fall back. Obviously some sides will improve, others will decline but it should even out and give us an idea of where we're heading.

With Wolves, Birmingham and Burnley in the Premiership, I used their league positions to swap them with the relegated Premiership teams, i.e. Newcastle were 18th in Premier League so replace Wolves. Ditto with the promoted clubs from League 1 and replacing the relegated teams.

Therefore: Newcastle = Wolves; Middlesbrough = Birmingham; West Brom = Burnley; Leicester = Norwich; Peterborough = Southampton; Scunthorpe = Charlton.

Last season: we finished with a goal difference of +25 and 80 points.

Opponents           V  Score   LastS    |   Points     GD     |     Improvement
                                        |                     |     Pts     GD
========================================|=====================|================
                                        |                     |
Middlesbrough       A   0-0     0-1     |     +1       +1     |      81     26
                                        |                     |
Watford             H   2-0     2-1     |     --       +1     |      81     27
                                        |                     |
Leicester           H   1-1     1-0     |     -2       -1     |      79     26
                                        |                     |
Reading             A   3-1     1-0     |     --       +1     |      79     27
                                        |                     |
West Brom           H   2-2     2-3     |     +1       +1     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Derby County        A   1-0     1-2     |     +3       +2     |      83     30
                                        |                     |
Coventry City       A   2-3     2-1     |     -3       -2     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Wednesday           H   3-2     1-2     |     +3       +2     |      83     30
                                        |                     |
Swansea             A   1-2     1-1     |     -1       -1     |      82     29
                                        |                     |
Ipswich             H   3-3     1-0     |     -2       -1     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Doncaster           H   1-1     0-1     |     +1       +1     |      81     29
                                        |                     |
Scunthorpe          A   ---     5-2     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Blackpool           A   ---     3-1     |     --       --     |      --     -- 
                                        |                     |
Cardiff             H   ---     0-0     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Newcastle           H   ---     1-3     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Barnsley            A   ---     2-1     |     --       --     |      --     --

We are currently on course to end the season a point better off with an increased goal difference as well (81 points with a goal difference of +29). The last two games have not gone to plan but we are still in a solid position.

Our current predicted record would (in the last ten seasons) would have seen us finish in the following places:

Champions: 0
2nd: 1
3rd: 4
4th: 4
5th: 1
6th: 0
Out of Play Offs: 0
Bottom Half: 0
Relegated: 0

If we achieve last season’s results for the rest of the season, we would most likely be in the Play Offs with home advantage in the second leg (80%) but would only be automatically promoted on 10% of occasions. We would make the Play Offs. We would finish no lower than 4th.

In the next five games, we took 10 points last season with a goal difference of +4. It is important that we recapture our good away form from 2008/09 as we need to win the next three away games to keep on track. If we can, it makes the games against Newcastle and Cardiff the points where we can improve our tally. Realistically, we are going to need to win 5/6 on the spin to force our way back into automatic contention (lots of similarities to 08/09 there then?) so we might as well do it now!!

UTB!

 

[Mary Christmas]

What an excellent and fascinating thread. Personally I'm more of an anecdotal gal for instance when we get 2 points out 9 I'm convinced that we are doomed to relegation but your stats are proving that never mind how bad we are playing we still have a future to believe in. I'm seriously considering about not bothering going to the games when I can follow your stats until I take my virtual shit trip to Wembley.

Thank you.

PS If you find the time could you please have a look at the last 5 years lottery results - perhaps you could come up with the winners on Saturday 17 April 2009.

 

[Elsecar_Blade]

Comparing our results to last season's corresponding results to see how we improve/fall back. Obviously some sides will improve, others will decline but it should even out and give us an idea of where we're heading.

With Wolves, Birmingham and Burnley in the Premiership, I used their league positions to swap them with the relegated Premiership teams, i.e. Newcastle were 18th in Premier League so replace Wolves. Ditto with the promoted clubs from League 1 and replacing the relegated teams.

Therefore: Newcastle = Wolves; Middlesbrough = Birmingham; West Brom = Burnley; Leicester = Norwich; Peterborough = Southampton; Scunthorpe = Charlton.

Last season: we finished with a goal difference of +25 and 80 points.

Opponents           V  Score   LastS    |   Points     GD     |     Improvement
                                        |                     |     Pts     GD
========================================|=====================|================
                                        |                     |
Middlesbrough       A   0-0     0-1     |     +1       +1     |      81     26
                                        |                     |
Watford             H   2-0     2-1     |     --       +1     |      81     27
                                        |                     |
Leicester           H   1-1     1-0     |     -2       -1     |      79     26
                                        |                     |
Reading             A   3-1     1-0     |     --       +1     |      79     27
                                        |                     |
West Brom           H   2-2     2-3     |     +1       +1     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Derby County        A   1-0     1-2     |     +3       +2     |      83     30
                                        |                     |
Coventry City       A   2-3     2-1     |     -3       -2     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Wednesday           H   3-2     1-2     |     +3       +2     |      83     30
                                        |                     |
Swansea             A   1-2     1-1     |     -1       -1     |      82     29
                                        |                     |
Ipswich             H   3-3     1-0     |     -2       -1     |      80     28
                                        |                     |
Doncaster           H   1-1     0-1     |     +1       +1     |      81     29
                                        |                     |
Scunthorpe          A   1-3     5-2     |     -3       -5     |      78     24
                                        |                     |
Blackpool           A   0-3     3-1     |     -3       -5     |      75     19 
                                        |                     |
Cardiff             H   ---     0-0     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Newcastle           H   ---     1-3     |     --       --     |      --     --
                                        |                     |
Barnsley            A   ---     2-1     |     --       --     |      --     -- 
                                        |                     |
Peterboro’          H   ---     0-0     |     --       --     |      --     -- 
                                        |                     |
Bristol C           A   ---     0-0     |     --       --     |      --     --

We are currently five points of the pace of last season but we do have five games coming up to improve our points situation from last season as we play four games which we failed to win last season. The goal difference has dropped alarmingly from last season now after good wins from last season have become heavy defeats this season.

Our current predicted record would (in the last ten seasons) would have seen us finish in the following places:

Champions: 0
2nd: 0
3rd: 1
4th: 1
5th: 1
6th: 5
Out of Play Offs: 2
Bottom Half: 0
Relegated: 0

If we achieve last season’s results for the rest of the season, we would most likely be in the Play Offs but with home advantage only twice out of 8. On two occasions, we would not have made the Play Offs and would finish 7th in the Championship. Automatic promotion needs an improvement in performances and results.

In the next five games, we got 6 points last season and only one win (at Oakwell) so we have an opportunity to improve on last season. However, with tough games against Cardiff and Newcastle as well as tough away trips to an improving Barnsley and a consistent Bristol City, it will be a tough ask.

UTB!

 

[iggle-theblade]

This time last year . . . . .

we had

Pts 22
GF 16
GA 8
W 6
L 4
D 4

So this season we are

Pts 17
GF 23
GA 25
W 4
L 5
D 5

we have scored 7 more goals but what is more worrying we have let in a massive 17 more goals this year so far and the only diference in personel is Kenny and Naughton at the back.

 

[ghandi]

I think this thread has now run it's course with the resounding answer to the title no we haven't improved on last season we have sadly seriously declined.