The stats to gain promotion and/or Win the league

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Tony Currie

Tony Currie

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Blades - Ten games to go 30 points
Fleetwood - Ten games to go 30 points
Bolton - Eleven games to go 33 points

Blades 9 points clear of third with vastly superior GD - so Bolton need to make up 10 points in 11 matches
Blades 8 points clear of second with vastly superior GD - so Fleetwood need to make up 9 points in 10 matches

**Blades need 20 points from 30 points to win promotion
**Blades need 21 points from 30 points to win title

** this assumes Bolton and Fleetwood don't drop any points between now and the end of the season.

Realistically 25 points from either Bolton or Fleetwood during the run in would be a phenomenal achievement.

This would leave the blades only needing 15 points for automatic and 16 for the title - it's got to be our year!
 



Tony Currie said:
Blades - Ten games to go 30 points
Fleetwood - Ten games to go 30 points
Bolton - Eleven games to go 33 points

Blades 9 points clear of third with vastly superior GD - so Bolton need to make up 10 points in 11 matches
Blades 8 points clear of second with vastly superior GD - so Fleetwood need to make up 9 points in 10 matches

**Blades need 20 points from 30 points to win promotion
**Blades need 21 points from 30 points to win title

** this assumes Bolton and Fleetwood don't drop any points between now and the end of the season.

Realistically 25 points from either Bolton or Fleetwood during the run in would be a phenomenal achievement.

This would leave the blades only needing 15 points for automatic and 16 for the title - it's got to be our year!
Click to expand...

If buts and maybes . Sit back and enjoy the ride .

Fuck me .
 
Surely this calls for the return of the magic number type graph thing
 
Tony Currie said:
Blades - Ten games to go 30 points
Fleetwood - Ten games to go 30 points
Bolton - Eleven games to go 33 points

Blades 9 points clear of third with vastly superior GD - so Bolton need to make up 10 points in 11 matches
Blades 8 points clear of second with vastly superior GD - so Fleetwood need to make up 9 points in 10 matches

**Blades need 20 points from 30 points to win promotion
**Blades need 21 points from 30 points to win title

** this assumes Bolton and Fleetwood don't drop any points between now and the end of the season.

Realistically 25 points from either Bolton or Fleetwood during the run in would be a phenomenal achievement.

This would leave the blades only needing 15 points for automatic and 16 for the title - it's got to be our year!
Click to expand...
 
AS I have said elsewhere............85 & we are up.

'I agree 4 wins & a draw & we are there! Does anyone see us losing 5 times more before the season ends?

Fleetwood would need to win 7 from 10 to get to 85 Highly Unlikely
Bolton would need to win 7 & draw 1 from 11 to get 85 Highly Unlikely
Bradford would need to win 7 and draw 2 from 9 to get 85 Impossible
Scunthorpe would need to win 8 from 9 to get 85 Impossible
Millwall would need to win 9 from 11 to get 85 Impossible'
 
Tony Currie said:
Blades - Ten games to go 30 points
Fleetwood - Ten games to go 30 points
Bolton - Eleven games to go 33 points

Blades 9 points clear of third with vastly superior GD - so Bolton need to make up 10 points in 11 matches
Blades 8 points clear of second with vastly superior GD - so Fleetwood need to make up 9 points in 10 matches

**Blades need 20 points from 30 points to win promotion
**Blades need 21 points from 30 points to win title

** this assumes Bolton and Fleetwood don't drop any points between now and the end of the season.

Realistically 25 points from either Bolton or Fleetwood during the run in would be a phenomenal achievement.

This would leave the blades only needing 15 points for automatic and 16 for the title - it's got to be our year!
Click to expand...

Afraid your maths is a bit wrong.

Fleetwood have a max 94 points and Bolton 96.

That means if we assume that we maintain a better GD we need 22 points for promotion and 24 for the title, but if both of them win all of their games their GD will shoot up so we would really need 23 for promotion and 25 for the title.

However, as you say, both are likely to drop at least 5 points, so 20 points and the classic 92 total would see us home and hosed.

UTB
 
Tony Currie said:
Blades - Ten games to go 30 points
Fleetwood - Ten games to go 30 points
Bolton - Eleven games to go 33 points

Blades 9 points clear of third with vastly superior GD - so Bolton need to make up 10 points in 11 matches
Blades 8 points clear of second with vastly superior GD - so Fleetwood need to make up 9 points in 10 matches

**Blades need 20 points from 30 points to win promotion
**Blades need 21 points from 30 points to win title

** this assumes Bolton and Fleetwood don't drop any points between now and the end of the season.

Realistically 25 points from either Bolton or Fleetwood during the run in would be a phenomenal achievement.

This would leave the blades only needing 15 points for automatic and 16 for the title - it's got to be our year!
Click to expand...
I need a graph :confused:
 



Our GD isn't as "vastly superior" as it first looks. Taking Bolton as an example, you've got to take into account that they have to win 3 games and we have to lose 2 games for us to even be level on points. That cuts the goal difference by 5 at the very least - likely more.
 
Ive enjoyed this season so much i don't want it to end.

Mexican wave going around Bramall Lane against Chesterfield,the last promotion we had we also played a team that's name started with a C and there was a mexican wave going around Bramall Lane.

Yariba yariba yariba,fook knows what that means.
 
hangover-maths-gif.gif
 
ChipButtyBlade said:
Ive enjoyed this season so much i don't want it to end.

Mexican wave going around Bramall Lane against Chesterfield,the last promotion we had we also played a team that's name started with a C and there was a mexican wave going around Bramall Lane.

Yariba yariba yariba,fook knows what that means.
Click to expand...
raul and Rodders won't join in
 
The Vicar said:
AS I have said elsewhere............85 & we are up.

'I agree 4 wins & a draw & we are there! Does anyone see us losing 5 times more before the season ends?

Fleetwood would need to win 7 from 10 to get to 85 Highly Unlikely
Bolton would need to win 7 & draw 1 from 11 to get 85 Highly Unlikely
Bradford would need to win 7 and draw 2 from 9 to get 85 Impossible
Scunthorpe would need to win 8 from 9 to get 85 Impossible
Millwall would need to win 9 from 11 to get 85 Impossible'
Click to expand...
When you loook at it like that it seems unlikely we could be caught but of course it all depends on us keeping up our form. Having said that we dont even need our form throughout the season. I think we can win 5 of our last 10 and the rest would need to get 88 points to beat us which is a very tall order for them (almost imposssible for Bradford,Scunthorpe, and Millwall) as they would have to win virtually every match.
The equation then is can Fleetwood AND Bolton exceed our total ? Unlikely !!
 
Last edited:
the best way to look at it is only one teams averaged 2 points per game this season and thats us

so if we apply both bolton and fleetwood matching 2 points per game thus exceeding what theyve done so far, so generous

bolton would get 22 points more , take off 9 they are behind and they would finish 13 points in front of where we are now
fleetwood 20 take off 8 point gap would finish 12 points ahead of our position now

which means with our gd advantage
we would only need 4 wins and a draw to win it on gd bolton 2nd fleetwood 3rd
 
if any of the chasers achieve champion form ie 2 points per game.. they'll end up around 84 points.. therefore we need to win 6 games which is all our home games and a couple of draws
 
We need 23 more points. Every draw/loss for the team with the 3rd highest theoretical point total reduces that number.

After Tuesday we might still need 23 points. Or we might only need 17...
 
blade too long said:
the best way to look at it is only one teams averaged 2 points per game this season and thats us

so if we apply both bolton and fleetwood matching 2 points per game thus exceeding what theyve done so far, so generous

bolton would get 22 points more , take off 9 they are behind and they would finish 13 points in front of where we are now
fleetwood 20 take off 8 point gap would finish 12 points ahead of our position now

which means with our gd advantage
we would only need 4 wins and a draw to win it on gd bolton 2nd fleetwood 3rd
Click to expand...
well thank god youve created another barely decipherable thread to clear things up
 
super_pig said:
if any of the chasers achieve champion form ie 2 points per game.. they'll end up around 84 points.. therefore we need to win 6 games which is all our home games and a couple of draws
Click to expand...
At this stage of the season in 1993 Bolton were 7 points behind second placed Port Vale with a game in hand. Port Vale averaged 2 points per game for the remainder of the season ending with 89 points but finished 3rd behind Bolton with 90 points and Stoke with 93.

With only a few games to go you cannot rule out teams getting well above 2 points per game.
 
The Vicar said:
AS I have said elsewhere............85 & we are up.

'I agree 4 wins & a draw & we are there! Does anyone see us losing 5 times more before the season ends?

Fleetwood would need to win 7 from 10 to get to 85 Highly Unlikely
Bolton would need to win 7 & draw 1 from 11 to get 85 Highly Unlikely
Bradford would need to win 7 and draw 2 from 9 to get 85 Impossible
Scunthorpe would need to win 8 from 9 to get 85 Impossible
Millwall would need to win 9 from 11 to get 85 Impossible'
Click to expand...
Trump to be president, impossible ;)
 



anglian blade said:
At this stage of the season in 1993 Bolton were 7 points behind second placed Port Vale with a game in hand. Port Vale averaged 2 points per game for the remainder of the season ending with 89 points but finished 3rd behind Bolton with 90 points and Stoke with 93.

With only a few games to go you cannot rule out teams getting well above 2 points per game.
Click to expand...
1993??? heh.. good effort.. but scraping the barrel a bit there mate .. we'll see. none of the contenders are exactly tearing it up are they? in fact we seem to be the form team
 
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