The Predictor (Yawn)

[BladeFisher]

More out of fascination than anything else I thought I'd resurrect this again as there is a chance we might get promoted.

Last season, risking plague, pestulance and ever lasting damnation, it did predict Wednesday finishing second. I have dug out the calculations for this season.

At the moment it is predicting (based on the last 6 results) the final table as follows. GD is not calculated.

Brentford 84pts
Doncaster 83
Blades 83
Bournemouth 80
Swindon 77
Orient 72
Yeovil 72
Tranmere 71
Walsall 70

Current form shows the following average points/game

Orient 2.17
Bournemouth 2
Brentford 2
Doncaster 1.83
Blades 1.83
Walsall 1.67
Swindon 1.5
Yeovil 1.17
Tranmere 1

If we could only pull some classic Blades performances out for Swindon and Brentford at home, that should seal the deal. It'll be updated after Monday.

 

[blade too long]

dont see how as we head the last 8 games form guide

http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/D2/oform.html

 

[Coily]

dont see how as we head the last 8 games form guide

http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/D2/oform.html

Because BF looks at the last 6 games, not 8. We are top of the 8 game table as we won 7 & 8 games ago.

 

[Darren]

More out of fascination than anything else I thought I'd resurrect this again as there is a chance we might get promoted.

Last season, risking plague, pestulance and ever lasting damnation, it did predict Wednesday finishing second. I have dug out the calculations for this season.

At the moment it is predicting (based on the last 6 results) the final table as follows. GD is not calculated.

Brentford 84pts
Doncaster 83
Blades 83
Bournemouth 80
Swindon 77
Orient 72
Yeovil 72
Tranmere 71
Walsall 70

Current form shows the following average points/game

Orient 2.17
Bournemouth 2
Brentford 2
Doncaster 1.83
Blades 1.83
Walsall 1.67
Swindon 1.5
Yeovil 1.17
Tranmere 1

If we could only pull some classic Blades performances out for Swindon and Brentford at home, that should seal the deal. It'll be updated after Monday.

I can't see Brentford getting 84 points. That would be 14 points from their remaining 7 games when 5 of those games are away and one of their home games is against Doncaster. And Brentford have the worse away record of any team in the top 10 (ther success has been built on their home record; its the best in the league). I'd be surprised if they manage 80 points.

 

[Selly]

I can't see Brentford getting 84 points. That would be 14 points from their remaining 7 games when 5 of those games are away and one of their home games is against Doncaster. And Brentford have the worse away record of any team in the top 10 (ther success has been built on their home record; its the best in the league). I'd be surprised if they manage 80 points.

Our game against Brentford is one of those odd ones where, given th steam respective home and away form, both sets of fans are probably expecting to get beaten...

 

[Greenwich Blade]

Our game against Brentford is one of those odd ones where, given th steam respective home and away form, both sets of fans are probably expecting to get beaten...

Funnily enough, I had that exact conversation with a Brentford fan today: "I reckon you'll stuff us." " No, I reckon you'll stuff US."

 

[BladeFisher]

Funnily enough, I had that exact conversation with a Brentford fan today: "I reckon you'll stuff us." " No, I reckon you'll stuff US."

Is that a "shagfest"?

 

[Greenwich Blade]

Is that a "shagfest"?

Well, we were in Londis and it needed livening up a bit...

 

[BladeFisher]

I can't see Brentford getting 84 points. That would be 14 points from their remaining 7 games when 5 of those games are away and one of their home games is against Doncaster. And Brentford have the worse away record of any team in the top 10 (ther success has been built on their home record; its the best in the league). I'd be surprised if they manage 80 points.

After posting I did wonder whether to sophisticate it a bit more and look at the last home and away games. Maybe 4 of each, to take account of this sort of scenario.

 

[Trigger Blade]

Well, we were in Londis and it needed livening up a bit...

So, does going from Tesco to Londis count as promotion then?

 

[gavtheblade]

So, does going from Tesco to Londis count as promotion then?

or is londis to ugo a relegation!

 

[Greenwich Blade]

So, does going from Tesco to Londis count as promotion then?

No, Londis just happens to be directly below my flat meaning sometimes it is just much easier to shop there. Tesco still wins for staff discount though.

 

[moDtheGod]

or is londis to ugo a relegation!

Ugo Ehiogu! Ugo Ehiogu!

 

[BladeFisher]

The corrected predictor.

Allowing for home and away form and the games to play and based on the last 5 home and away games, goal difference et al the prediction as of Easter Sunday is....

Brentford 81pts 14GD
SUFC 80 19GD
Swindon 79 38GD
Doncaster 79 18GD
Bournmemouth 77 15GD
Yeovil 73 12GD
Orient 71 15GD
Tranmere 71 12GD
Walsall 71 10GD

United are expected to pick up just 5 points at home but 7 away, Brentford 5 at home (impossible as only 2 games but this is a mathematical model) and 6 away from 5 games. In essence it comes down to can United better their home form more than Brentford can their away form. Whoever wins that battle, probably wins the league. Still say we should have charabanc trips round Derbyshire before home games.

 

[blade too long]

Because BF looks at the last 6 games, not 8. We are top of the 8 game table as we won 7 & 8 games ago.

well thats being selective , I used the one I always do , 8 is more representative than 6,

its like panicking over 1 defeat , its not logical,
8 is usually a full 2 months of form , a reasonable form guide

 

[BornOnShorehamStreet]

Funnily enough, I had that exact conversation with a Brentford fan today: "I reckon you'll stuff us." " No, I reckon you'll stuff US."

And then you had a feight......

 

[blade too long]

if we all ( top 6)get exactly 2 points per game, itll be
sufc
donny
brentford all on 84 points
swindon 82,
bournemouth 80
yeovil 79
we are plus 19 donny plus 18 and brentford 14
so itll be close , with us just a whisker ahead
but unlikely to be that symmetrical

 

[BladeFisher]

well thats being selective , I used the one I always do , 8 is more representative than 6,

its like panicking over 1 defeat , its not logical,
8 is usually a full 2 months of form , a reasonable form guide

It is now 10, 5 home and 5 away.

 

[Greenwich Blade]

And then you had a feight......

He was blind (in fact he was on the Football League Show the other week leading Brentford out) so of course we had a feight!

 

[BladeFisher]

Well the Blades predictor was spot on today with a point (United to have got 5 points at home from the remaining games before today)

The predictor based on the last 5 home and 5 away games to the end of the season is:

Doncaster 84pts 20GD
SUFC 81pts 21GD
Bournemouth 79pts 16GD
Brentford 78pts 9GD
Swindon 75pts 34GD
Yeovil 75pts 13GD
Walsall 72pts 13GD
Orient 71pts 8GD
Tranmere 70pts 12GD

To achieve this the Blades are expected to win 1 draw 2 and lose 1 of our home games and away from home win 2 and draw 1 of our remaining games.

However at the moment Walsall and Portsmouth have good home form records so we are going to have to go some to pull it off. As for the home games it should be win 1 draw 2 lose 1, which is probably about right, though the opportunity is there to do better!

 

[BladeFisher]

The Blades finally slipped out of the automatic promotion hunt when 2 points were dropped at the Bescot stadium today to in-form Walsall. United are still on course to pick up 7 points from their last three away games but will now need wins at Fratton Park and Gresty Road in order to do so.

The final outcome for the League One table is predicted to looks like this with United paired with Swindon in yet another play off campaign.

Doncaster 86pts 21GD
Bournemouth 81pts 18GD
SUFC 79pts 20GD
Brentford 79pts 12GD
Yeovil 76pts 14GD
Swindon 75pts 34GD
Walsall 71pts 12GD
Orient 70pts 8GD
Tranmere 69pts 10GD

United have by far the most difficult run in, but their awful home form and inability to score goals seems likely to result in more promotion agony and yet again a play off fiasco seems the most likely outcome. They just have to shake off the lethargy they are currently experiencing to have any chance of going up. Sadly there doesn't appear to be much evidence this is about to happen.