The Great Escape

Klaatu Barada Nikto

Klaatu Barada Nikto

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Lots of speculation on what the total required for survival this year, and whether it wll be a record low. I don't know about that, but assuming 38 pts is the regular benchmark for staying up and an average of 36 pts is usually safe, then we'll need 28-30 more pts! I've gone through the fixtures left and stuck what i think is achievable against each.


16/12/2023 15:00ChelseaSheffield Utd0
22/12/2023 20:00Aston VillaSheffield Utd0
26/12/2023 15:00Sheffield UtdLuton3
30/12/2023 15:00Man CitySheffield Utd0
21/01/2024 14:00Sheffield UtdWest Ham1
30/01/2024 20:00Crystal PalaceSheffield Utd3
03/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdAston Villa1
10/02/2024 15:00LutonSheffield Utd3
17/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBrighton3
24/02/2024 15:00WolvesSheffield Utd1
02/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdArsenal0
09/03/2024 15:00BournemouthSheffield Utd3
16/03/2024 15:00Man UtdSheffield Utd0
30/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdFulham3
03/04/2024 20:00LiverpoolSheffield Utd0
06/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdChelsea1
13/04/2024 15:00BrentfordSheffield Utd1
20/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBurnley3
27/04/2024 15:00NewcastleSheffield Utd0
04/05/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdNottingham Forest3
11/05/2024 15:00EvertonSheffield Utd1
19/05/2024 16:00Sheffield UtdSpurs1


31pts from the remaining fixtures. I think it's doable, but we could be out of he running by the end of January. Feb will be a big month!

What does everyone else think?
 

I honestly think we can stay up. And I really think that 30 points might be enough this season.
 
Klaatu Barada Nikto said:
Lots of speculation on what the total required for survival this year, and whether it wll be a record low. I don't know about that, but assuming 38 pts is the regular benchmark for staying up and an average of 36 pts is usually safe, then we'll need 28-30 more pts! I've gone through the fixtures left and stuck what i think is achievable against each.


16/12/2023 15:00ChelseaSheffield Utd0
22/12/2023 20:00Aston VillaSheffield Utd0
26/12/2023 15:00Sheffield UtdLuton3
30/12/2023 15:00Man CitySheffield Utd0
21/01/2024 14:00Sheffield UtdWest Ham1
30/01/2024 20:00Crystal PalaceSheffield Utd3
03/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdAston Villa1
10/02/2024 15:00LutonSheffield Utd3
17/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBrighton3
24/02/2024 15:00WolvesSheffield Utd1
02/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdArsenal0
09/03/2024 15:00BournemouthSheffield Utd3
16/03/2024 15:00Man UtdSheffield Utd0
30/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdFulham3
03/04/2024 20:00LiverpoolSheffield Utd0
06/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdChelsea1
13/04/2024 15:00BrentfordSheffield Utd1
20/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBurnley3
27/04/2024 15:00NewcastleSheffield Utd0
04/05/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdNottingham Forest3
11/05/2024 15:00EvertonSheffield Utd1
19/05/2024 16:00Sheffield UtdSpurs1


31pts from the remaining fixtures. I think it's doable, but we could be out of he running by the end of January. Feb will be a big month!

What does everyone else think?
Click to expand...

We've had a great start under Wilder 2.0 but there's too many variables to be predicting results right the way through to the end. We'll have off-days. We'll have more injuries. Other teams will strengthen and hit form.

Personally I think it's a shade too late for us to escape. I really, really hope I'm wrong.
 
Klaatu Barada Nikto said:
Lots of speculation on what the total required for survival this year, and whether it wll be a record low. I don't know about that, but assuming 38 pts is the regular benchmark for staying up and an average of 36 pts is usually safe, then we'll need 28-30 more pts! I've gone through the fixtures left and stuck what i think is achievable against each.


16/12/2023 15:00ChelseaSheffield Utd0
22/12/2023 20:00Aston VillaSheffield Utd0
26/12/2023 15:00Sheffield UtdLuton3
30/12/2023 15:00Man CitySheffield Utd0
21/01/2024 14:00Sheffield UtdWest Ham1
30/01/2024 20:00Crystal PalaceSheffield Utd3
03/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdAston Villa1
10/02/2024 15:00LutonSheffield Utd3
17/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBrighton3
24/02/2024 15:00WolvesSheffield Utd1
02/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdArsenal0
09/03/2024 15:00BournemouthSheffield Utd3
16/03/2024 15:00Man UtdSheffield Utd0
30/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdFulham3
03/04/2024 20:00LiverpoolSheffield Utd0
06/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdChelsea1
13/04/2024 15:00BrentfordSheffield Utd1
20/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBurnley3
27/04/2024 15:00NewcastleSheffield Utd0
04/05/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdNottingham Forest3
11/05/2024 15:00EvertonSheffield Utd1
19/05/2024 16:00Sheffield UtdSpurs1


31pts from the remaining fixtures. I think it's doable, but we could be out of he running by the end of January. Feb will be a big month!

What does everyone else think?
Click to expand...

There have been 28 seasons of 20-Team Premier Leagues.

If you look at the graph below you can see that 35 points has been enough to stay up in 50% of those seasons - so I think that 35 is a reasonable target to expect to stay up, as this year is likely to be low - but in reality there are only 3 weak teams at present, and if you are one of them then the 4th weakest may not be that low. However, you can see that in 2021 29 points would have kept you up - so you never know - Wilder things can happen!

Survival Points.jpg

The Magic is Coming Back
 
ucandomagic said:
There have been 28 seasons of 20-Team Premier Leagues.

If you look at the graph below you can see that 35 points has been enough to stay up in 50% of those seasons - so I think that 35 is a reasonable target to expect to stay up, as this year is likely to be low - but in reality there are only 3 weak teams at present, and if you are one of them then the 4th weakest may not be that low. However, you can see that in 2021 29 points would have kept you up - so you never know - Wilder things can happen!

View attachment 175963

The Magic is Coming Back
Click to expand...

29pts would not have kept you up in 20/21.
 
Klaatu Barada Nikto said:
Lots of speculation on what the total required for survival this year, and whether it wll be a record low. I don't know about that, but assuming 38 pts is the regular benchmark for staying up and an average of 36 pts is usually safe, then we'll need 28-30 more pts! I've gone through the fixtures left and stuck what i think is achievable against each.


16/12/2023 15:00ChelseaSheffield Utd0
22/12/2023 20:00Aston VillaSheffield Utd0
26/12/2023 15:00Sheffield UtdLuton3
30/12/2023 15:00Man CitySheffield Utd0
21/01/2024 14:00Sheffield UtdWest Ham1
30/01/2024 20:00Crystal PalaceSheffield Utd3
03/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdAston Villa1
10/02/2024 15:00LutonSheffield Utd3
17/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBrighton3
24/02/2024 15:00WolvesSheffield Utd1
02/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdArsenal0
09/03/2024 15:00BournemouthSheffield Utd3
16/03/2024 15:00Man UtdSheffield Utd0
30/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdFulham3
03/04/2024 20:00LiverpoolSheffield Utd0
06/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdChelsea1
13/04/2024 15:00BrentfordSheffield Utd1
20/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBurnley3
27/04/2024 15:00NewcastleSheffield Utd0
04/05/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdNottingham Forest3
11/05/2024 15:00EvertonSheffield Utd1
19/05/2024 16:00Sheffield UtdSpurs1


31pts from the remaining fixtures. I think it's doable, but we could be out of he running by the end of January. Feb will be a big month!

What does everyone else think?
Click to expand...
I think weve got more chance of 1 point v Man u than 3 v Bournemouth, and we aren't beating Luton twice, more like draws, let's not get carried away, long way to go yet!
 
If Wilder had come in after the Fulham game we might have been in with a chance. Should have acted earlier imo, i posted as much at the time. Still there is a slim chance. Can't see us getting 6 points off Luton. But we may pick up others elsewhere.
The Shammers could be 3pts at home, especially if they're still tied up in Europe. We will have further disappointments and further highs. At least we have a team worth watching now.
Great to see Peck and Slimane coming on and making a difference, and with some height. As I said elsewhere the subs v Liverpool left us with just 2 outfield players above 6ft against a tall Liverpool team.
It also depends on how other teams fair. Hopefully Florist and Palace will slip into the mix with us, Burley and Luton. I don't really see anyone else down there at the moment.
 
If CW and co had been brought in a few games previous, we might have had a chance of staying up. The old romantic in me still thinks it is possible, but unlikely.

The main thing is, until it is mathematically impossible to stay up, let's get behind the team and give them a boost, every game, no matter what.
 
Klaatu Barada Nikto said:
29pts would not have kept you up in 20/21.
Click to expand...
That is exactly my last point, you can never know. My analysis looks from above at the overall strength of a season, not at team specifics. and in 2021 3 teams got 28 points or less - but obviously if you were 1 of those 3 teams then 29 points would not have kept you up - unless of course your extra points reduced the points of somebody just above you. If you were not one of those 3 teams then 29 points was enough.

So it’s impossible to look at a season from a team-specific view.

This season could be 3 teams with 28 or less and 1 with 29 stays up - or it could be 3 teams with 28 and 4th bottom is 42.

As I said, anything can happen but, as another forum always tells us, the league we are in is always the weakest ever, so there is hope!!

Magic is Possible - but Hard Work Helps!
 
Klaatu Barada Nikto said:
Lots of speculation on what the total required for survival this year, and whether it wll be a record low. I don't know about that, but assuming 38 pts is the regular benchmark for staying up and an average of 36 pts is usually safe, then we'll need 28-30 more pts! I've gone through the fixtures left and stuck what i think is achievable against each.


16/12/2023 15:00ChelseaSheffield Utd0
22/12/2023 20:00Aston VillaSheffield Utd0
26/12/2023 15:00Sheffield UtdLuton3
30/12/2023 15:00Man CitySheffield Utd0
21/01/2024 14:00Sheffield UtdWest Ham1
30/01/2024 20:00Crystal PalaceSheffield Utd3
03/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdAston Villa1
10/02/2024 15:00LutonSheffield Utd3
17/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBrighton3
24/02/2024 15:00WolvesSheffield Utd1
02/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdArsenal0
09/03/2024 15:00BournemouthSheffield Utd3
16/03/2024 15:00Man UtdSheffield Utd0
30/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdFulham3
03/04/2024 20:00LiverpoolSheffield Utd0
06/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdChelsea1
13/04/2024 15:00BrentfordSheffield Utd1
20/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBurnley3
27/04/2024 15:00NewcastleSheffield Utd0
04/05/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdNottingham Forest3
11/05/2024 15:00EvertonSheffield Utd1
19/05/2024 16:00Sheffield UtdSpurs1


31pts from the remaining fixtures. I think it's doable, but we could be out of he running by the end of January. Feb will be a big month!

What does everyone else think?
Click to expand...

Think they're semi realistic but pretty optimistic predictions. You have us winning all our winnable games, doesn't tend to work like that.
No doubt we'll have an off day or a really unlucky day when their goalie has a worldie.

Even with the optimism it's still only 31 points.
I reckon we'll finish on 25 points and probably need 30 to stay up, hopefully far lower but doubt it.

So pretty sure we'll be relegated but think we'll be strong for next season
and easily be one of the best teams in the Championship.

Always said don't mind losing, don't mind being relegated but it's the way you lose.
We were an embarrassing laughing stock where opposition teams didn't even need to try against us.
For the 1st time in 50 years I was turning up to matches with zero nerves, zero excitement, zero expectation because I knew we would lose.
The question was you were hoping we would we keep it down to 2 or 3-0 but you feared it might end up 6 or 7-0.
Never known this as bad before and for some reason many of our fans turned a blind eye because they liked Hecky and saw him as a victim with a long list of valid excuses. He did have valid excuses, did deserve sympathy and was a nice man but he was massively underperforming.
 

We need to focus on ourselves and performances - certainly need to continue with the levels of the last two games but also keep in mind that with such a small squad with less depth than most clubs and a huge number of injuries, it’s going to be hard work

But A lot will depend on what happens around us. Burnley, Forest and Palace may all feel the pressure to pull the trigger and replace their managers or spend big in Jan to escape the bottom 3. Right now we’re heading for a scrap between us, Forest, Burnley and Luton with Palace potentially getting dragged in

All of the above could make the final total required very unpredictable
 
Klaatu Barada Nikto said:
Lots of speculation on what the total required for survival this year, and whether it wll be a record low. I don't know about that, but assuming 38 pts is the regular benchmark for staying up and an average of 36 pts is usually safe, then we'll need 28-30 more pts! I've gone through the fixtures left and stuck what i think is achievable against each.


16/12/2023 15:00ChelseaSheffield Utd0
22/12/2023 20:00Aston VillaSheffield Utd0
26/12/2023 15:00Sheffield UtdLuton3
30/12/2023 15:00Man CitySheffield Utd0
21/01/2024 14:00Sheffield UtdWest Ham1
30/01/2024 20:00Crystal PalaceSheffield Utd3
03/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdAston Villa1
10/02/2024 15:00LutonSheffield Utd3
17/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBrighton3
24/02/2024 15:00WolvesSheffield Utd1
02/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdArsenal0
09/03/2024 15:00BournemouthSheffield Utd3
16/03/2024 15:00Man UtdSheffield Utd0
30/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdFulham3
03/04/2024 20:00LiverpoolSheffield Utd0
06/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdChelsea1
13/04/2024 15:00BrentfordSheffield Utd1
20/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBurnley3
27/04/2024 15:00NewcastleSheffield Utd0
04/05/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdNottingham Forest3
11/05/2024 15:00EvertonSheffield Utd1
19/05/2024 16:00Sheffield UtdSpurs1


31pts from the remaining fixtures. I think it's doable, but we could be out of he running by the end of January. Feb will be a big month!

What does everyone else think?
Click to expand...

What do I think?
I think if we do that lot I'll buy you next year's season ticket mate ;)
 
Grappler said:
If CW and co had been brought in a few games previous, we might have had a chance of staying up.
Click to expand...

You can blame the fans for that....the Prince was never going to sack Hecky when 90% of the fanbase were backing him.

I still think someone in the club deliberately released news about Wilders return just to plant the seed and test the waters.
The 1st reaction was a resounding and powerful NO, a few weeks later there was another leak to the press. The fans still said NO, but the negativity wasn't quite as strong this time and some even suggested we were so desperate that Wilder was an option.

I predicted the only way Wilder would be returning was when the fans at matches turned against Hecky.
 
Last edited:
Klaatu Barada Nikto said:
Lots of speculation on what the total required for survival this year, and whether it wll be a record low. I don't know about that, but assuming 38 pts is the regular benchmark for staying up and an average of 36 pts is usually safe, then we'll need 28-30 more pts! I've gone through the fixtures left and stuck what i think is achievable against each.


16/12/2023 15:00ChelseaSheffield Utd0
22/12/2023 20:00Aston VillaSheffield Utd0
26/12/2023 15:00Sheffield UtdLuton3
30/12/2023 15:00Man CitySheffield Utd0
21/01/2024 14:00Sheffield UtdWest Ham1
30/01/2024 20:00Crystal PalaceSheffield Utd3
03/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdAston Villa1
10/02/2024 15:00LutonSheffield Utd3
17/02/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBrighton3
24/02/2024 15:00WolvesSheffield Utd1
02/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdArsenal0
09/03/2024 15:00BournemouthSheffield Utd3
16/03/2024 15:00Man UtdSheffield Utd0
30/03/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdFulham3
03/04/2024 20:00LiverpoolSheffield Utd0
06/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdChelsea1
13/04/2024 15:00BrentfordSheffield Utd1
20/04/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdBurnley3
27/04/2024 15:00NewcastleSheffield Utd0
04/05/2024 15:00Sheffield UtdNottingham Forest3
11/05/2024 15:00EvertonSheffield Utd1
19/05/2024 16:00Sheffield UtdSpurs1


31pts from the remaining fixtures. I think it's doable, but we could be out of he running by the end of January. Feb will be a big month!

What does everyone else think?
Click to expand...
I think that losing only 7 of the final 22 with a couple of 5 and 6 game unbeaten runs is very optimistic,
 
It's the hope that kills you. To me, going down with a sense of togetherness and optimism will be equally as great an escape. We were well on the road to ruin IMO.

We've a chance though!
 
Let's stay grounded for now. We are 6 points adrift of Forest, who are the team we need to catch. We have an awful December coming up on paper where we may well only pick up points from Luton. Our best hope is that Forest's winless streak continues and we maintain the gap at 6 and not allow it to increase by any more than 1 point.

It really is a case of taking things one game at a time and not getting carried away. That said, one week ago I'd have said we'd go to Stamford Bridge and get battered. With another week of Wilder working with the players there's optimism for a draw, which would have seemed like deluded mad talk a week ago.

What a difference a week makes.
 
It's unlikely at this time to say we'll stay up, but the more the fans believe it, the better. Wilder will be banking on that hope and belief to up the atmosphere and lift the players.

I personally think it's a bit daft to get excited but I'm not gona stop anybody!
 
It might seem unrealistic at the moment, but it's not impossible. It's just nice to have a bit of hope again
 
I'm happy we can get 20+ points now, maybe up nearer 30. But Brentford were missing arguably their 3 best attacking players yesterday (Jensen, Mbeumo, Toney). Chances are we'll be a run of the mill low end PL team rather than a disaster the rest of the way.

26 points is my bet. 10 points from safety but with a lot of hope that next season can be a good one
 
I was starting to feel slightly optimistic until I saw the fixtures and proposed points.

I still think we'll go down, as I have since day one or even when Ndiaye left, and I'm not allowing myself to get over excited about some unlikely survival attempt. All I expect are the type of performance we saw against Brentford and if we can do that, I'll be happy.
 
ZoneManWilf said:
Whilst we're drinking the cool-aid, can that match on 4th May also consign Forest to relegation as well please? :)
Click to expand...
We need one of Forest and CP to be relegated otherwise we are down with 36/38 points.
 

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