The Good, the bad and the alright. United League Form.

[bromtom]

For me, this season is easily split into three parts; 'Upto and including Burton', 'Post Burton', and 'Post JTW Reinforcements'. I dug up some simple stats. It's late so if there are errors in my methodology, apologies.

We started brilliantly, and then Coutts broke his leg, and while I don't think he's responsible entirely for our good form early on (scoring more helps), the subtle shift in style without him obviously affected things, Duffy and Fleck being more risk averse going forward without Coutts to mop up should they be dispossessed is the main thing I noticed.

Adjusted to match the first 17 games of the season, we scored 4.4 fewer goals in the period between Burton and our reinforcements getting here, and 11.7 fewer in the period since the JTW players arrived.

Our adjusted win rate is better however since the JTW, with 6.8 wins compared to 1.88 Post Burton/PreJTW.

That says to me that the JTW players are having an impact, which is what I felt at the time. We looked fucked in that Christmas period, only managing to beat Sunderland. The criticism I see on here of our dealings (bar needing a striker) are way off in my opinion.

I have also seen posts lamenting the fact that we've become defensive. I agree to some extent but I think there's a reason.

Upto & Inc Burton we had let 3 late Goals in (85 minutes or later) and had 3 narrow 1-0 defeats. Post Burton we got worse in that area, with 2 of each in half as many games, or 3.77 when adjusted, so we were obviously starting to get sloppy.

The Bristol debacle sealed it for me, I think that was the point we stopped throwing caution to the wind and started trying to arrest the situation. To that end, Wilder has succeeded, and in the post JTW period, we have won 4 times as many and conceded just one late goal (1.7 adjusted) and had two (3.4 adjusted) narrow 1-0 defeats, though one of those was Hull and that's about as anomalous as anomalous data gets. That was barely Sheffield United.

Our obvious problem is, we aren't scoring enough. Nothing else. Defensively we have improved, we are giving ourselves a chance but we are not taking them at the other end.

Here's a graph

It's not the new players not working (except Wilson you could argue) and it's not Coutts now, though I'd love him back. We're making about as many chances as we always have but we just aren't scoring, otherwise we're not far off.

We've won the 6th most games in the league, and we're starting to let less in again but Jesus H Christ we need to get our shooting boots on if we want to make the Playoffs.

Whether this provides any worthwhile insight I'll let you decide haha

UTB

Oh. And Brooks' glands shitting the bed didn't help

 

[knowsnowt]

In blame the freehold.

 

[Davie Blade]

Posted at 2.00 am and now 6.00 am does this OP come with 'get a life' subtitles?

We played different clubs throughout the season was my conclusion.

 

[Houston_Blade]

I hope Marvin Sordell is given the appropriate treatment on Tuesday night. He's now put himself in between Gareth Ainsworth and Mauricio Taricco as my 2nd most hated footballer for crimes against the Blades. Kevin Muscat and Alex Rae are the remainder of the top 5.

 

[Yellarbellyblade]

I hope Marvin Sordell is given the appropriate treatment on Tuesday night. He's now put himself in between Gareth Ainsworth and Mauricio Taricco as my 2nd most hated footballer for crimes against the Blades. Kevin Muscat and Alex Rae are the remainder of the top 5.

Sordell is not even in the same postcode of wankerdom as Ainsworth!

 

[Woodwardfan]

For me, this season is easily split into three parts; 'Upto and including Burton', 'Post Burton', and 'Post JTW Reinforcements'. I dug up some simple stats. It's late so if there are errors in my methodology, apologies.

We started brilliantly, and then Coutts broke his leg, and while I don't think he's responsible entirely for our good form early on (scoring more helps), the subtle shift in style without him obviously affected things, Duffy and Fleck being more risk averse going forward without Coutts to mop up should they be dispossessed is the main thing I noticed.

Adjusted to match the first 17 games of the season, we scored 4.4 fewer goals in the period between Burton and our reinforcements getting here, and 11.7 fewer in the period since the JTW players arrived.

Our adjusted win rate is better however since the JTW, with 6.8 wins compared to 1.88 Post Burton/PreJTW.

That says to me that the JTW players are having an impact, which is what I felt at the time. We looked fucked in that Christmas period, only managing to beat Sunderland. The criticism I see on here of our dealings (bar needing a striker) are way off in my opinion.

I have also seen posts lamenting the fact that we've become defensive. I agree to some extent but I think there's a reason.

Upto & Inc Burton we had let 3 late Goals in (85 minutes or later) and had 3 narrow 1-0 defeats. Post Burton we got worse in that area, with 2 of each in half as many games, or 3.77 when adjusted, so we were obviously starting to get sloppy.

The Bristol debacle sealed it for me, I think that was the point we stopped throwing caution to the wind and started trying to arrest the situation. To that end, Wilder has succeeded, and in the post JTW period, we have won 4 times as many and conceded just one late goal (1.7 adjusted) and had two (3.4 adjusted) narrow 1-0 defeats, though one of those was Hull and that's about as anomalous as anomalous data gets. That was barely Sheffield United.

Our obvious problem is, we aren't scoring enough. Nothing else. Defensively we have improved, we are giving ourselves a chance but we are not taking them at the other end.

Here's a graph

It's not the new players not working (except Wilson you could argue) and it's not Coutts now, though I'd love him back. We're making about as many chances as we always have but we just aren't scoring, otherwise we're not far off.

We've won the 6th most games in the league, and we're starting to let less in again but Jesus H Christ we need to get our shooting boots on if we want to make the Playoffs.

Whether this provides any worthwhile insight I'll let you decide haha

UTB

Oh. And Brooks' glands shitting the bed didn't help

Well said. Fascinating analysis.

Stats only tell us so much but this rings true to me.

One important benfit of the new signings is cover in the squad for injuries, suspensions and tired legs; the bench is always strong now.

Wilder has definitely altered his 'gung-ho' approach. Not sure it's worked but tiredness of key players demanded it really.

 

[Beans]

Thanks for this bromtom, really interesting reading.

Here’s hoping someone can get on a scoring hot streak for us a la Clarke in Sept-Oct. Teams that are powering on now have that, Mitrovic has 7 goals in a short spell for Fulham and I think Bamford has 8 in 5 for Boro.

 

[Kozzy_is_my_Dad]

Thanks bromtom good bit of analogy that and nice to read that the stats reflect the lived experience of watching us week in, week out. Someone give this lad a job in Wilder's backroom team, sincerely!

You can see the upward shift since the reinforcements but you can tell that they don't quite measure up to the form pre-Burton, hence why they're all getting the "they're OK but their not Couttseh" treatment. Whilst that may be true, and I agree, we have improved since their arrival. There's no guarantee that we would've carried on in the same vein of form with him fit any way. More to the point, I don't think we would have seen Evans and Leonard arrive and provide much needed squad depth, without Coutts' abseweve We've sorely missed him but I'm also glad they're here as I think they'll come good.

Would you say the stats reflect other observations such as the most notable for me...a reduction in O'Connell bombing forward and the change in our style as a result?

 

[Carlton Blade]

For me, this season is easily split into three parts; 'Upto and including Burton', 'Post Burton', and 'Post JTW Reinforcements'. I dug up some simple stats. It's late so if there are errors in my methodology, apologies.

We started brilliantly, and then Coutts broke his leg, and while I don't think he's responsible entirely for our good form early on (scoring more helps), the subtle shift in style without him obviously affected things, Duffy and Fleck being more risk averse going forward without Coutts to mop up should they be dispossessed is the main thing I noticed.

Adjusted to match the first 17 games of the season, we scored 4.4 fewer goals in the period between Burton and our reinforcements getting here, and 11.7 fewer in the period since the JTW players arrived.

Our adjusted win rate is better however since the JTW, with 6.8 wins compared to 1.88 Post Burton/PreJTW.

That says to me that the JTW players are having an impact, which is what I felt at the time. We looked fucked in that Christmas period, only managing to beat Sunderland. The criticism I see on here of our dealings (bar needing a striker) are way off in my opinion.

I have also seen posts lamenting the fact that we've become defensive. I agree to some extent but I think there's a reason.

Upto & Inc Burton we had let 3 late Goals in (85 minutes or later) and had 3 narrow 1-0 defeats. Post Burton we got worse in that area, with 2 of each in half as many games, or 3.77 when adjusted, so we were obviously starting to get sloppy.

The Bristol debacle sealed it for me, I think that was the point we stopped throwing caution to the wind and started trying to arrest the situation. To that end, Wilder has succeeded, and in the post JTW period, we have won 4 times as many and conceded just one late goal (1.7 adjusted) and had two (3.4 adjusted) narrow 1-0 defeats, though one of those was Hull and that's about as anomalous as anomalous data gets. That was barely Sheffield United.

Our obvious problem is, we aren't scoring enough. Nothing else. Defensively we have improved, we are giving ourselves a chance but we are not taking them at the other end.

Here's a graph

It's not the new players not working (except Wilson you could argue) and it's not Coutts now, though I'd love him back. We're making about as many chances as we always have but we just aren't scoring, otherwise we're not far off.

We've won the 6th most games in the league, and we're starting to let less in again but Jesus H Christ we need to get our shooting boots on if we want to make the Playoffs.

Whether this provides any worthwhile insight I'll let you decide haha

UTB

Oh. And Brooks' glands shitting the bed didn't help

We were a unique team pre Burton. We offered opponents a challenge they had to work very hard to counter. We tried to maintain that style while replacing Coutts and won 1 in 9.

I think from Derby away onwards the 'new' way of playing cemented itself. More cautious but most of all more standard. CBs staying in place to stop counter attacks means you are more solid but you don't get to double up out wide unless one of your midfield 3 or a striker goes over to help the WB. That automatically means one less person on the box.

Personally, I would have liked mid Feb to have seen a move back towards how we played before. Maybe they are trying and the energy isn't there but it doesn't seem that way to me.

Our uniqueness gave us an advantage. We don't have the most talented squad. I think if this has become our base way of playing than we will struggle to replicate that start to the season again. But fingers crossed we can get it back - it's the best football I've ever seen us play

 

[Large Mendonca]

All good points made, but i do think there is an element of teams working us out a bit. We hit the ground running and teams knew little about us, but now there's loads of video evidence to the way we play, you can see it in how teams set up against us. For example, most teams now stifle us playing the ball out of defence by pushing up high forcing Blackman / Moore to punt it long, and most of the time we lose possession.

 

[Woodwardfan]

Thanks bromtom good bit of analogy that and nice to read that the stats reflect the lived experience of watching us week in, week out. Someone give this lad a job in Wilder's backroom team, sincerely!

You can see the upward shift since the reinforcements but you can tell that they don't quite measure up to the form pre-Burton, hence why they're all getting the "they're OK but their not Couttseh" treatment. Whilst that may be true, and I agree, we have improved since their arrival. There's no guarantee that we would've carried on in the same vein of form with him fit any way. More to the point, I don't think we would have seen Evans and Leonard arrive and provide much needed squad depth, without Coutts' abseweve We've sorely missed him but I'm also glad they're here as I think they'll come good.

Would you say the stats reflect other observations such as the most notable for me...a reduction in O'Connell bombing forward and the change in our style as a result?

Stevens non-existant attacking after a promising first 2 months. 'Worldie 'goals against. Fleck playing less forward. Sharp ineffective until he returned to the side after a rest. Brooks illness. Duffy in and out of the side. Bad luck. Tiredness; after all we were all over the opposition week after week, something had to give.

 

[Fanny magnet]

Wilders biggest mistake at the lane was not prioritising left wing back and getting in cover for baldock when Freeman got Injured

 

[Tom Bott]

Some refreshing insight there

, good work.

 

[Chali 2na]

For me, this season is easily split into three parts; 'Upto and including Burton', 'Post Burton', and 'Post JTW Reinforcements'. I dug up some simple stats. It's late so if there are errors in my methodology, apologies.

We started brilliantly, and then Coutts broke his leg, and while I don't think he's responsible entirely for our good form early on (scoring more helps), the subtle shift in style without him obviously affected things, Duffy and Fleck being more risk averse going forward without Coutts to mop up should they be dispossessed is the main thing I noticed.

Adjusted to match the first 17 games of the season, we scored 4.4 fewer goals in the period between Burton and our reinforcements getting here, and 11.7 fewer in the period since the JTW players arrived.

Our adjusted win rate is better however since the JTW, with 6.8 wins compared to 1.88 Post Burton/PreJTW.

That says to me that the JTW players are having an impact, which is what I felt at the time. We looked fucked in that Christmas period, only managing to beat Sunderland. The criticism I see on here of our dealings (bar needing a striker) are way off in my opinion.

I have also seen posts lamenting the fact that we've become defensive. I agree to some extent but I think there's a reason.

Upto & Inc Burton we had let 3 late Goals in (85 minutes or later) and had 3 narrow 1-0 defeats. Post Burton we got worse in that area, with 2 of each in half as many games, or 3.77 when adjusted, so we were obviously starting to get sloppy.

The Bristol debacle sealed it for me, I think that was the point we stopped throwing caution to the wind and started trying to arrest the situation. To that end, Wilder has succeeded, and in the post JTW period, we have won 4 times as many and conceded just one late goal (1.7 adjusted) and had two (3.4 adjusted) narrow 1-0 defeats, though one of those was Hull and that's about as anomalous as anomalous data gets. That was barely Sheffield United.

Our obvious problem is, we aren't scoring enough. Nothing else. Defensively we have improved, we are giving ourselves a chance but we are not taking them at the other end.

Here's a graph

It's not the new players not working (except Wilson you could argue) and it's not Coutts now, though I'd love him back. We're making about as many chances as we always have but we just aren't scoring, otherwise we're not far off.

We've won the 6th most games in the league, and we're starting to let less in again but Jesus H Christ we need to get our shooting boots on if we want to make the Playoffs.

Whether this provides any worthwhile insight I'll let you decide haha

UTB

Oh. And Brooks' glands shitting the bed didn't help

Excellent post mate.

 

[HodgysBrokenThumb]

Wilders biggest mistake at the lane was not prioritising left wing back and getting in cover for baldock when Freeman got Injured

Any names of a left wing back we could have obtained within the budget? When Freeman got injured, the transfer window was not open, so only players out of contract would have been available (I think).

 

[Fanny magnet]

Any names of a left wing back we could have obtained within the budget? When Freeman got injured, the transfer window was not open, so only players out of contract would have been available (I think).

Freemans been injured since October !

Like I said left wing back should have been a priority so the budgets irrelevant as one should have been signed before the three midfielders and striker who've barely featured

 

[HodgysBrokenThumb]

Freemans been injured since October !

Like I said left wing back should have been a priority so the budgets irrelevant as one should have been signed before the three midfielders and striker who've barely featured

As the OP is about the whole season, I assumed you were talking about the season as a whole. I think the LWB question is still relevant - with so many teams playing wing-backs now, good ones are expensive. I can't think of any that would have been realistic for us in January. And as Freeman is apparently on the way back, we have so far got away with that one, as Baldock has been playing pretty well.