stats on penalties

[Darren]

he was barged off the ball in a coming together - while it was a definite penalty - I have seen many similar not given.

While the freeman one, together with the one Darren mentioned Kenny got away with against Hull, where absolutely full on stanewallers with no room for interpretation otherwise by all officials.

Another one I remember was v Millwall at the Lane on 4/2/84. We were going through a sticky patch on our promotion bid and had not won since New Year's Eve. We really needed to beat Millwall and were leading 1-0 through a Morris goal, when about 5 mins from the end, a Millwall player broke through with only Tomlinson to beat and Joe Bolton was just behind and literally grabbed him by the shoulders and wrestled him to the ground. A clear pen we all thought, but not given!

To add insult to injury, we went up the other end and Arnott scored to give us a much needed 2-0 win.

 

[Silent Blade]

In the last 10 minutes of our home game against Man U in Sept 1972 we should have had a penalty when Woody was chopped down in the penalty box but the ref turned the appeals down. Woody needed treatment for the injury and the crowd booed the ref loudly. In the last minute we had a corner that went nowhere but to everyone's surprise the ref awarded us a penalty (he said one of our players was fouled but the players looked at each other wondering who was fouled!) in which Woody coverted. After the game Man U's manager Frank O'Farrell accused the ref of doing two wrongs to make a right!

 

[Punk Blade]

My point was purely that, on the whole you get awarded more penalties if you are a better team (because you spend more time in the opposition penalty area), hence the awarding of penalties is an effect not a cause of being a better team (as defined by the league table).

I just picked you up on your presentation of that as a great insight, when to me it seems bleedin' obvious

It was presented as a way to explain a counter-argument to the original post.

Is it because I quoted my source? If I'd just said "obviously winning teams will be given more penalties," would you have just nodded and agreed? I'd only recently been reading about the statistical evidence, and I found it interesting (and quite surprising) just how small a difference there is between win ratios when penalties are or aren't awarded. It doesn't seem to make any difference in any way, not improving the records of home teams, away teams, champions or underdogs. It suggests to me that when you are doing well, sometimes scoring a goal is an inevitability however you do it.

I would recommend reading the book. I'm currently reading about the really obvious reason why out of the four largest metropolitan areas in Europe (Istanbul, Moscow, Paris and London) they have just one European Cup/Champions League title between them (one fewer than Nottingham Forest!).

 

[Darren]

It was presented as a way to explain a counter-argument to the original post.

Is it because I quoted my source? If I'd just said "obviously winning teams will be given more penalties," would you have just nodded and agreed? I'd only recently been reading about the statistical evidence, and I found it interesting (and quite surprising) just how small a difference there is between win ratios when penalties are or aren't awarded. It doesn't seem to make any difference in any way, not improving the records of home teams, away teams, champions or underdogs. It suggests to me that when you are doing well, sometimes scoring a goal is an inevitability however you do it.

I would recommend reading the book. I'm currently reading about the really obvious reason why out of the four largest metropolitan areas in Europe (Istanbul, Moscow, Paris and London) they have just one European Cup/Champions League title between them (one fewer than Nottingham Forest!).

Now that is interesting. I would say Istanbul and Moscow because, historically at least, Russia and Turkey are poorer countries than those in western Europe, but Paris and London are conundrums...

 

[curtisblades]

The soccernomics read is a really great read if you are interested in the stats side of football.
Personally liked the section on why transfers don't work if you buy lots of players from different countries. Maybe Nigel has read it and realised that success comes from just buying players from one country, in our cas Scotland.

 

[Punk Blade]

The soccernomics read is a really great read if you are interested in the stats side of football.
Personally liked the section on why transfers don't work if you buy lots of players from different countries. Maybe Nigel has read it and realised that success comes from just buying players from one country, in our cas Scotland.

I was particularly interested in the bit about why managers don't make any difference. If they are right, I assume our 2013/14 season is the exception to the rule!

 

[blade too long]

Its about the ref giving the decision.teams get some given .and it can alter a game.take wednesday .were struggling .get a nice penalty and a red card in 5 minutes at Reading .a decision later over turned .and it more or less saved them.and it happened again in their favour.

 

[BerksBlade]

It also depends on the individual players who get the ball in the box. Contrast Suarez (who I would consider a diving cheat) with Aguero (who generally speaking, isn't). So I'd expect Liverpool to get more penalties than City, even if they have the ball in the box a similar number of times.

 

[Pittsburg Blade]

Surely not as bad as Keith Gillespie away at Reading? That was outrageous.

The Gillsepie incident starts at 6 mins in this clip. It was hardly a "coming together" but the ref couldn't give a pen as he had earlier inexplicably decided not to red card Paddy Kenny when he handled outside the box.

 

[Darren]

The Gillsepie incident starts at 6 mins in this clip. It was hardly a "coming together" but the ref couldn't give a pen as he had earlier inexplicably decided not to red card Paddy Kenny when he handled outside the box.

I don't think it is that clear cut. Gilliespie knocks the ball past the defender and, on one interpretation, could be said to launch himself over the defender's body in order to get a pen. It could have been that the defender was too slow to react to get himself out of Gilliespie's way when the ball had gone past him.

I agree that it's a decision that could have gone either way.

 

[cooperblade]

Fashanu's 2nd handball has to be top of the list of stonewallers we've not been given

 

[ChrisBlade]

I find that penalty table very interesting, irrespective of meta-discussions. For years I have felt that in most leagues, being a name team buys you an absolutely over-proportionate amount of decisions. At the same time, I felt that whenever we are low enough to be a "name" team, we still do not get anything.

This table obviously confirms that we did indeed get very few pens last year. However, Bristol City and wolves also got pretty few, even though they also would be considered big teams with intimidating crowds. In the case of Wolves, they also were very successful.

So overall, sadly, as hard as I look, this table does not really give me any food for conspiracy theories. At least not for systematic bias for big clubs with selected "blind eyes" for United due to past allegiances with a string of moaning whingers as managers.

 

[Pittsburg Blade]

I don't think it is that clear cut. Gilliespie knocks the ball past the defender and, on one interpretation, could be said to launch himself over the defender's body in order to get a pen. It could have been that the defender was too slow to react to get himself out of Gilliespie's way when the ball had gone past him.

I agree that it's a decision that could have gone either way.

...one of those incidents thats a foul anywhere on the pitch except in the penalty area.

 

[wizadry]

I don't think it is that clear cut. Gilliespie knocks the ball past the defender and, on one interpretation, could be said to launch himself over the defender's body in order to get a pen. It could have been that the defender was too slow to react to get himself out of Gilliespie's way when the ball had gone past him.

I agree that it's a decision that could have gone either way.

Don't take this the wrong way dazzler,but that is a stonewaller no matter which way you look at it,he's been took out of the game,no doubt about it,and tbh if you can't see that go and watch rugby pal.They might just get away with that sort of challenge

 

[oldblade]

I can't see that it's counter intuitive at all. If Shittown City spend 80% of their time in their own half, they will obviously get fewer penalties than Superduper United who spend 80% of their time in the opposition's half.

Ah, but you are assuming that all the worst teams spend less time in the opposition's penalty area. They might just have useless strikers that can't hit a barn door.