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Champagneblade

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New manager or not for West Brom, United are due a big win soon and hopefully it is this weekend.

Our attacking play has continued to be decent. You'd think our luck will turn some time soon.

Having scored twice at the weekend we registered an xG of almost 4.

We have, I believe as at the weekend the highest xG of anyone. Even Man City.

It seems even more of an anomaly that we haven't scored more given a stable of strikers that includes McBurnie, Sharp, Brewster and N'Diaye.

The goals we gave away against Norwich were a gift in the first instance and a combination of bad fortune and bad play in the second. Surely we can't keep giving away these freakish goals?

As frustrating as it was to lose to Coventry, their goal was completely unnecessary from our side and it isn't often you hit both the post and the bar in one game. Lady Luck certainly hasn't been shining on United of late.

Even the prior match, we missed a penalty, had another for blatant handball not given and a good goal disallowed. With a fair wind we'd have picked up more from all three of these fixtures. Even in the away game at Stoke, at a crucial point N'Diaye hit the post and it came out only for then to score in off the post to take the lead.

Looking up in the league, I'm uncomfortable that we've allowed such a good start to slip and the 4 points difference to the automatics grates because a win won't even put us back into the top two.

But looking up, we hammered Blackburn. I don't see them finishing above us. You can file QPR's win as a good away performance, but 21 shots to 10 doesn't tell me they are a better team than us head to head.

Burnley I can't quite figure out. They are obviously well organised but they don't have an amazing goal scorer. They have been fortunate with injuries too. Some luck there also. A pen given last night and Norwich being down on senior players must have aided their dominance.

But it really is time for the senior pros to step up now. And for that matter the coaching staff.

Whoever plays we will field an experienced, capable keeper, certainly more so than West Brom, having lost Sam Johnstone.

The defence we can put out, if Osborn can replicate his second half against Norwich, should be strong. We kept a clean sheet away at Preston with 4/5 of this defence. Robinson is now back too to add strength and depth and is naturally left footed.

For West Brom, they've been playing a back three of O'Shea, Bartley and Pieters. Bartley is out as he got sent off, O'Shea was at fault for Millwall's winner and Pieters went off. They don't look in especially good shape defensively either.

They can certainly be got at.

The new manager timing is a tad unfortunate as you'd rather face a team meandering than one with renewed hope, but no saying there will be immediate impact.

Time for United to play to our potential. Need a big game from them. They owe it to us after the results of late. Hopefully they can seize the moment.
 

Let's see who's overperforming and underperforming on xg (WF10BLADE agree it's goals that count, but it's a good tool to see who is finishing and who isn't). All stats from infogoal.

People with more goals than xg, most to least:

Ndiaye 6 goals, 4.3xg
Ahmedhodzic 3 goals, 1.53xg
Berge 3 goals, 1.58xg
Lowe 1 goal, 0.77xg
Khadra 1 goal, 0.7 xg
Osborn 1 goal, 0.7xg
Norwood 2 goals, 1.8xg

Good stuff from the top 3, the others about where you'd hope, with Norwood making up for missing a pen with 2 great strikes.

Goalless players who haven't really had a clear chance:

Gordon 0 goals, 0.07xg
Jebbison 0 goals, 0.07xg
Clark 0 goals, 0.07xg
Basham 0 goals, 0.1xg
Bogle 0 goals, 0.12xg
Fleck 0 goals, 0.15xg

Underperformers, least to worst:

McAtee 1 goal, 1.21xg
RND 0 goals, 0.44xg
Baldock 0 goals, 0.58xg
Sharp 0 goals, 0.69xg
McBurnie 6 goals, 7.01xg
Egan 0 goals, 2.0xg
Brewster 1 goal, 3.62xg

We have 2.52 more expected goals than goals overall. That is more or less equivalent to Brewster's deficit. Even with a penalty miss the lad needs to pull his finger out.

Other thoughts:

Almost all of McBurnie's deficit comes from the Blackburn game. Since then he is well into positive territory and going well despite the late miss Saturday.

Confirmation, as if any were needed, that Egan is terrible in front of goal. Egan's stats for us in 4 and a bit seasons: 5 goals, 13.1 xg. That's awful.

I was surprised how low Sharp's xg is. Perhaps it might be better to write him off after we actually create some chances for him.
 
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New manager or not for West Brom, United are due a big win soon and hopefully it is this weekend.

Our attacking play has continued to be decent. You'd think our luck will turn some time soon.

Having scored twice at the weekend we registered an xG of almost 4.

We have, I believe as at the weekend the highest xG of anyone. Even Man City.

It seems even more of an anomaly that we haven't scored more given a stable of strikers that includes McBurnie, Sharp, Brewster and N'Diaye.

The goals we gave away against Norwich were a gift in the first instance and a combination of bad fortune and bad play in the second. Surely we can't keep giving away these freakish goals?

As frustrating as it was to lose to Coventry, their goal was completely unnecessary from our side and it isn't often you hit both the post and the bar in one game. Lady Luck certainly hasn't been shining on United of late.

Even the prior match, we missed a penalty, had another for blatant handball not given and a good goal disallowed. With a fair wind we'd have picked up more from all three of these fixtures. Even in the away game at Stoke, at a crucial point N'Diaye hit the post and it came out only for then to score in off the post to take the lead.

Looking up in the league, I'm uncomfortable that we've allowed such a good start to slip and the 4 points difference to the automatics grates because a win won't even put us back into the top two.

But looking up, we hammered Blackburn. I don't see them finishing above us. You can file QPR's win as a good away performance, but 21 shots to 10 doesn't tell me they are a better team than us head to head.

Burnley I can't quite figure out. They are obviously well organised but they don't have an amazing goal scorer. They have been fortunate with injuries too. Some luck there also. A pen given last night and Norwich being down on senior players must have aided their dominance.

But it really is time for the senior pros to step up now. And for that matter the coaching staff.

Whoever plays we will field an experienced, capable keeper, certainly more so than West Brom, having lost Sam Johnstone.

The defence we can put out, if Osborn can replicate his second half against Norwich, should be strong. We kept a clean sheet away at Preston with 4/5 of this defence. Robinson is now back too to add strength and depth and is naturally left footed.

For West Brom, they've been playing a back three of O'Shea, Bartley and Pieters. Bartley is out as he got sent off, O'Shea was at fault for Millwall's winner and Pieters went off. They don't look in especially good shape defensively either.

They can certainly be got at.

The new manager timing is a tad unfortunate as you'd rather face a team meandering than one with renewed hope, but no saying there will be immediate impact.

Time for United to play to our potential. Need a big game from them. They owe it to us after the results of late. Hopefully they can seize the moment.
Swings and roundabouts and for margins you could analyse the games we won that we could have lost or drawn
Preston
Swansea
Hull
Sunderland at 11v11
 
New manager or not for West Brom, United are due a big win soon and hopefully it is this weekend.

Our attacking play has continued to be decent. You'd think our luck will turn some time soon.

Having scored twice at the weekend we registered an xG of almost 4.

We have, I believe as at the weekend the highest xG of anyone. Even Man City.

It seems even more of an anomaly that we haven't scored more given a stable of strikers that includes McBurnie, Sharp, Brewster and N'Diaye.

The goals we gave away against Norwich were a gift in the first instance and a combination of bad fortune and bad play in the second. Surely we can't keep giving away these freakish goals?

As frustrating as it was to lose to Coventry, their goal was completely unnecessary from our side and it isn't often you hit both the post and the bar in one game. Lady Luck certainly hasn't been shining on United of late.

Even the prior match, we missed a penalty, had another for blatant handball not given and a good goal disallowed. With a fair wind we'd have picked up more from all three of these fixtures. Even in the away game at Stoke, at a crucial point N'Diaye hit the post and it came out only for then to score in off the post to take the lead.

Looking up in the league, I'm uncomfortable that we've allowed such a good start to slip and the 4 points difference to the automatics grates because a win won't even put us back into the top two.

But looking up, we hammered Blackburn. I don't see them finishing above us. You can file QPR's win as a good away performance, but 21 shots to 10 doesn't tell me they are a better team than us head to head.

Burnley I can't quite figure out. They are obviously well organised but they don't have an amazing goal scorer. They have been fortunate with injuries too. Some luck there also. A pen given last night and Norwich being down on senior players must have aided their dominance.

But it really is time for the senior pros to step up now. And for that matter the coaching staff.

Whoever plays we will field an experienced, capable keeper, certainly more so than West Brom, having lost Sam Johnstone.

The defence we can put out, if Osborn can replicate his second half against Norwich, should be strong. We kept a clean sheet away at Preston with 4/5 of this defence. Robinson is now back too to add strength and depth and is naturally left footed.

For West Brom, they've been playing a back three of O'Shea, Bartley and Pieters. Bartley is out as he got sent off, O'Shea was at fault for Millwall's winner and Pieters went off. They don't look in especially good shape defensively either.

They can certainly be got at.

The new manager timing is a tad unfortunate as you'd rather face a team meandering than one with renewed hope, but no saying there will be immediate impact.

Time for United to play to our potential. Need a big game from them. They owe it to us after the results of late. Hopefully they can seize the moment.
Bit long that pal due lose all sense of what your writing halfway through 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
 
It seems even more of an anomaly that we haven't scored more given a stable of strikers that includes McBurnie, Sharp, Brewster and N'Diaye.

Not really when Oli has only just found his magic scoring boots, Sharp just falls over all the time and Brewster continues to flatter to deceive.....in fact if we are to stand any chance of going up a striker would be top of my shopping list in Jan.
 
Not really when Oli has only just found his magic scoring boots, Sharp just falls over all the time and Brewster continues to flatter to deceive.....in fact if we are to stand any chance of going up a striker would be top of my shopping list in Jan.
Brewster is a problem. The rest are fine at the moment.
 
It would be nice, just for once to see us come flying out of the blocks with high intensity and take the game by the scruff of the neck like we are more than capable of doing. However away from home we seem quite happy to let the home side dictate the pace. This usually leads us to either falling behind or letting the home side get on top.
 

New manager or not for West Brom, United are due a big win soon and hopefully it is this weekend.

Our attacking play has continued to be decent. You'd think our luck will turn some time soon.

Having scored twice at the weekend we registered an xG of almost 4.

We have, I believe as at the weekend the highest xG of anyone. Even Man City.

It seems even more of an anomaly that we haven't scored more given a stable of strikers that includes McBurnie, Sharp, Brewster and N'Diaye.

The goals we gave away against Norwich were a gift in the first instance and a combination of bad fortune and bad play in the second. Surely we can't keep giving away these freakish goals?

As frustrating as it was to lose to Coventry, their goal was completely unnecessary from our side and it isn't often you hit both the post and the bar in one game. Lady Luck certainly hasn't been shining on United of late.

Even the prior match, we missed a penalty, had another for blatant handball not given and a good goal disallowed. With a fair wind we'd have picked up more from all three of these fixtures. Even in the away game at Stoke, at a crucial point N'Diaye hit the post and it came out only for then to score in off the post to take the lead.

Looking up in the league, I'm uncomfortable that we've allowed such a good start to slip and the 4 points difference to the automatics grates because a win won't even put us back into the top two.

But looking up, we hammered Blackburn. I don't see them finishing above us. You can file QPR's win as a good away performance, but 21 shots to 10 doesn't tell me they are a better team than us head to head.

Burnley I can't quite figure out. They are obviously well organised but they don't have an amazing goal scorer. They have been fortunate with injuries too. Some luck there also. A pen given last night and Norwich being down on senior players must have aided their dominance.

But it really is time for the senior pros to step up now. And for that matter the coaching staff.

Whoever plays we will field an experienced, capable keeper, certainly more so than West Brom, having lost Sam Johnstone.

The defence we can put out, if Osborn can replicate his second half against Norwich, should be strong. We kept a clean sheet away at Preston with 4/5 of this defence. Robinson is now back too to add strength and depth and is naturally left footed.

For West Brom, they've been playing a back three of O'Shea, Bartley and Pieters. Bartley is out as he got sent off, O'Shea was at fault for Millwall's winner and Pieters went off. They don't look in especially good shape defensively either.

They can certainly be got at.

The new manager timing is a tad unfortunate as you'd rather face a team meandering than one with renewed hope, but no saying there will be immediate impact.

Time for United to play to our potential. Need a big game from them. They owe it to us after the results of late. Hopefully they can seize the moment.
Echoes my thoughts exactly.

Said the same on Saturday when one forum member who was in my company clearly didn't agree with me.

I just don't get all the negativity flying around.

Given our iinjury problems I think we're doing incredibly well and I'm happy to be called a clapper.

What's with all the negative waves Moriarty 😉
 
Re the OP, I’m inclined to agree with him. Someone will get a good stuffing when it all clicks.

I hope it’s against the Baggies, but probably for the wrong personal reasons. Corboran is strong on details, and a quality manager once he gets going.

JLT is a decent left sided defender, but there’s a reason he hasn’t had minutes yet.

I hope we slaughter the Brom, but if we do it will be goals from defenders and midfielders. This is just an opinion. No facts presented at all.;)
 
I wonder how many times we’ve played a struggling team just after they’ve appointed a new manager? It seems like it happens at least once a season.
 
Let's see who's overperforming and underperforming on xg (WF10BLADE agree it's goals that count, but it's a good tool to see who is finishing and who isn't). All stats from infogoal.

People with more goals than xg, most to least:

Ndiaye 6 goals, 4.3xg
Ahmedhodzic 3 goals, 1.53xg
Berge 3 goals, 1.58xg
Lowe 1 goal, 0.77xg
Khadra 1 goal, 0.7 xg
Osborn 1 goal, 0.7xg
Norwood 2 goals, 1.8xg

Good stuff from the top 3, the others about where you'd hope, with Norwood making up for missing a pen with 2 great strikes.

Goalless players who haven't really had a clear chance:

Gordon 0 goals, 0.07xg
Jebbison 0 goals, 0.07xg
Clark 0 goals, 0.07xg
Basham 0 goals, 0.1xg
Bogle 0 goals, 0.12xg
Fleck 0 goals, 0.15xg

Underperformers, least to worst:

McAtee 1 goal, 1.21xg
RND 0 goals, 0.44xg
Baldock 0 goals, 0.58xg
Sharp 0 goals, 0.69xg
McBurnie 6 goals, 7.01xg
Egan 0 goals, 2.0xg
Brewster 1 goal, 3.62xg

We have 2.52 more expected goals than goals overall. That is more or less equivalent to Brewster's deficit. Even with a penalty miss the lad needs to pull his finger out.

Other thoughts:

Almost all of McBurnie's deficit comes from the Blackburn game. Since then he is well into positive territory and going well despite the late miss Saturday.

Confirmation, as if any were needed, that Egan is terrible in front of goal. Egan's stats for us in 4 and a bit seasons: 5 goals, 13.1 xg. That's awful.

I was surprised how low Sharp's xg is. Perhaps it might be better to write him off after we actually create some chances for him.
I'm generally pro-xG and stats in general, if well used but there is no such thing as an objective xG, there are just different, often proprietary, xGs. So go to another xG provider and you will get a different set of xG stats.

For instance for McBurnie you might get:

StatsMyBoy xG = 5.4
FactThat xG = 6.34
DataRelater xG = 7.01

It's an incomplete and misleading statement to assert that "McBurnie's xG is 7.01". This sounds like an objective fact when it isn't at all.

"McBurnie's xG is 7.01 according to DataRelater."

Despite the alluring presence of numbers and even decimal places 🤯, which seem to have more, and more unquestioning, worshippers than the Christian faith these days, conversations about xG are not conversations about facts, they are conversations about the far more vague opinions and models.

I've not looked into it but I'd imagine xG now is where, say, weather forecasting was 20 or 30 years ago, with often significant differences between models. But as techniques and technology improve the models will tend to agree much more, and have much more predictive value. Till then any statement about xG, for instance, should be regarded with healthy skepticism.

"All models are wrong, some are useful."
 
Let's see who's overperforming and underperforming on xg (WF10BLADE agree it's goals that count, but it's a good tool to see who is finishing and who isn't). All stats from infogoal.

People with more goals than xg, most to least:

Ndiaye 6 goals, 4.3xg
Ahmedhodzic 3 goals, 1.53xg
Berge 3 goals, 1.58xg
Lowe 1 goal, 0.77xg
Khadra 1 goal, 0.7 xg
Osborn 1 goal, 0.7xg
Norwood 2 goals, 1.8xg

Good stuff from the top 3, the others about where you'd hope, with Norwood making up for missing a pen with 2 great strikes.

Goalless players who haven't really had a clear chance:

Gordon 0 goals, 0.07xg
Jebbison 0 goals, 0.07xg
Clark 0 goals, 0.07xg
Basham 0 goals, 0.1xg
Bogle 0 goals, 0.12xg
Fleck 0 goals, 0.15xg

Underperformers, least to worst:

McAtee 1 goal, 1.21xg
RND 0 goals, 0.44xg
Baldock 0 goals, 0.58xg
Sharp 0 goals, 0.69xg
McBurnie 6 goals, 7.01xg
Egan 0 goals, 2.0xg
Brewster 1 goal, 3.62xg

We have 2.52 more expected goals than goals overall. That is more or less equivalent to Brewster's deficit. Even with a penalty miss the lad needs to pull his finger out.

Other thoughts:

Almost all of McBurnie's deficit comes from the Blackburn game. Since then he is well into positive territory and going well despite the late miss Saturday.

Confirmation, as if any were needed, that Egan is terrible in front of goal. Egan's stats for us in 4 and a bit seasons: 5 goals, 13.1 xg. That's awful.

I was surprised how low Sharp's xg is. Perhaps it might be better to write him off after we actually create some chances for him.
Why am I not surprised Brewster is bottom of the list.
Egan should be doing better but he's a defender, not a striker
 
Let's see who's overperforming and underperforming on xg (WF10BLADE agree it's goals that count, but it's a good tool to see who is finishing and who isn't). All stats from infogoal.

People with more goals than xg, most to least:

Ndiaye 6 goals, 4.3xg
Ahmedhodzic 3 goals, 1.53xg
Berge 3 goals, 1.58xg
Lowe 1 goal, 0.77xg
Khadra 1 goal, 0.7 xg
Osborn 1 goal, 0.7xg
Norwood 2 goals, 1.8xg

Good stuff from the top 3, the others about where you'd hope, with Norwood making up for missing a pen with 2 great strikes.

Goalless players who haven't really had a clear chance:

Gordon 0 goals, 0.07xg
Jebbison 0 goals, 0.07xg
Clark 0 goals, 0.07xg
Basham 0 goals, 0.1xg
Bogle 0 goals, 0.12xg
Fleck 0 goals, 0.15xg

Underperformers, least to worst:

McAtee 1 goal, 1.21xg
RND 0 goals, 0.44xg
Baldock 0 goals, 0.58xg
Sharp 0 goals, 0.69xg
McBurnie 6 goals, 7.01xg
Egan 0 goals, 2.0xg
Brewster 1 goal, 3.62xg

We have 2.52 more expected goals than goals overall. That is more or less equivalent to Brewster's deficit. Even with a penalty miss the lad needs to pull his finger out.

Other thoughts:

Almost all of McBurnie's deficit comes from the Blackburn game. Since then he is well into positive territory and going well despite the late miss Saturday.

Confirmation, as if any were needed, that Egan is terrible in front of goal. Egan's stats for us in 4 and a bit seasons: 5 goals, 13.1 xg. That's awful.

I was surprised how low Sharp's xg is. Perhaps it might be better to write him off after we actually create some chances for him.
I dont usually read too much in this kind of stats but I have read this and I think it still doesnt mean some are over performing or under performing.

An example is that TC scored only 3 league goals during the 1972-73 season but he was still our best player and went on to play more games for England after the end of the season and papers were saying that he was England's answer to Gunther Netzer
 
I'm generally pro-xG and stats in general, if well used but there is no such thing as an objective xG, there are just different, often proprietary, xGs. So go to another xG provider and you will get a different set of xG stats.

For instance for McBurnie you might get:

StatsMyBoy xG = 5.4
FactThat xG = 6.34
DataRelater xG = 7.01

It's an incomplete and misleading statement to assert that "McBurnie's xG is 7.01". This sounds like an objective fact when it isn't at all.

"McBurnie's xG is 7.01 according to DataRelater."

Despite the alluring presence of numbers and even decimal places 🤯, which seem to have more, and more unquestioning, worshippers than the Christian faith these days, conversations about xG are not conversations about facts, they are conversations about the far more vague opinions and models.

I've not looked into it but I'd imagine xG now is where, say, weather forecasting was 20 or 30 years ago, with often significant differences between models. But as techniques and technology improve the models will tend to agree much more, and have much more predictive value. Till then any statement about xG, for instance, should be regarded with healthy skepticism.

"All models are wrong, some are useful."
I agree with most of that, which is why I said “all stats from infogoal” at the top of my post.

It is not an exact science. But fun to look at and useful as a guide, and tends to support what I’ve seen with my own eyes this season FWIW.
 
I dont usually read too much in this kind of stats but I have read this and I think it still doesnt mean some are over performing or under performing.

An example is that TC scored only 3 league goals during the 1972-73 season but he was still our best player and went on to play more games for England after the end of the season and papers were saying that he was England's answer to Gunther Netzer
Of course your best player might not be your best goalscorer.

I’m saying overperforming or underperforming as a goalscorer only.
 
I agree with most of that, which is why I said “all stats from infogoal” at the top of my post.

It is not an exact science. But fun to look at and useful as a guide, and tends to support what I’ve seen with my own eyes this season FWIW.
All stats from infogoal.
Cheers. "My bad", as the kids say.
 

Some good points there in your o/p Champagne.. agree with all that.
Hopefully new manager syndrome won't work against us, but I think we can draw confidence from that 2nd half comeback v Norwich.. I know some will say we had nothing to lose, but we showed character to dig our way out against a decent team after gifting them a 2 goal lead. Some teams would have folded and gone down 3 or 4...Hopefully we can build on that 2nd half v Baggies.
Burnley are going well but I've not seen any team to fear, no outstanding team, and I think without the injuries we'd be still top.
 

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