EOCostello
New Member
- Joined
- Mar 18, 2017
- Messages
- 13
- Reaction score
- 29
As things stand Tuesday morning, before today's matches, only nine teams have a mathematical (as opposed to a practical) chance of catching the Blades, based on the number of points United has, versus the total theoretical maximum teams could earn if they ran the table for the rest of the season. Thus, the Blades can finish, at absolute worst (if they collapse utterly and lose their last eight games) in 10th place, which I'll show in a moment is quite unlikely.
These are: Bolton, Fleetwood, Millwall, Bradford, Scunthorpe, Southend, Rochdale, Oxford and Bristol City.
There is a type of "magic number" associated with each of these rivals, which is a combination of "points won" by United, and "points lost" by the team (i.e., 3 points lost for a loss, 2 points lost for a draw).
The "magic number" for each of the nine teams, by my calculations, is as follows, in ascending order: Bristol 1, Oxford 5, Rochdale 6, Southend 7, Scunthorpe 8, Bradford 10, Millwall 12, Fleetwood 15 and Bolton 19.
Where it gets interesting is for days like today (March 21st) where you have two teams still in contention playing each other in a match; in fact, two sets (Oxford v. Bolton and Rochdale v. Millwall). In that case, United can't lose, since some team is going to drop points. Some results, of course, are better than others.
There are a number of combinations possible for today's match, but two stand out in my mind:
(a) Oxford beats Bolton, Rochdale beats Millwall. This would drop the magic numbers for Bolton to 16, Millwall to 9, Rochdale to 6 and Oxford to 5. Obviously, the lower the magic number, the less the Blades have to do to clinch.
(b) Both matches end in draws, reducing the magic numbers as follows: Bolton 17, Millwall 10, Rochdale 4 and Oxford 3.
Looking ahead to this weekend, while it doesn't seem possible that United will clinch a playoff spot, they could knock out as many as three teams from contention (that is, catching the Blades), if results fall a certain way.
(a) Bristol City will be out if: United wins, United draws, Bristol draws OR Bristol loses. Since Bristol has 78 points as its theoretical maximum, and United has 78 points already, that's why Bristol is on the edge, and so many different outcomes can knock it out.
(b) Oxford United will be out if: they lose to either Bolton or Northampton (this weekend) AND the Blades win, or Oxford loses to BOTH Bolton and Northampton. Their magic number being 5, certain 2-match combinations is what will knock them out.
(c) Rochdale will be out if: they lose to BOTH Millwall and Chesterfield AND the Blades win, or if Rochdale loses to BOTH Millwall and Chesterfield AND the Blades draw.
Thus, if all the results fall just right, United can finish no worse than seventh. Southend and Scunthorpe have too many theoretical points to be knocked out, at least this week.
Given that the Blades play three matches against teams currently in the relegation zone (Port Vale, Chesterfield and Coventry), and two more matches against teams in the bottom half (Oldham and MK Dons), it's going to be very tough for other teams to catch them. Beating either Bradford or Millwall in those matches will produce the obvious effect: seriously denting those teams' chances of catching United.
By my calculations, the magic number for making the playoffs is 7 (a combination of points won and opponents losing points), assuming that four teams are knocked out. The magic number for getting automatic promotion is 15, and the magic number for winning the league is 19. Hence the importance of sweeping those five matches against the bottom half.
These are: Bolton, Fleetwood, Millwall, Bradford, Scunthorpe, Southend, Rochdale, Oxford and Bristol City.
There is a type of "magic number" associated with each of these rivals, which is a combination of "points won" by United, and "points lost" by the team (i.e., 3 points lost for a loss, 2 points lost for a draw).
The "magic number" for each of the nine teams, by my calculations, is as follows, in ascending order: Bristol 1, Oxford 5, Rochdale 6, Southend 7, Scunthorpe 8, Bradford 10, Millwall 12, Fleetwood 15 and Bolton 19.
Where it gets interesting is for days like today (March 21st) where you have two teams still in contention playing each other in a match; in fact, two sets (Oxford v. Bolton and Rochdale v. Millwall). In that case, United can't lose, since some team is going to drop points. Some results, of course, are better than others.
There are a number of combinations possible for today's match, but two stand out in my mind:
(a) Oxford beats Bolton, Rochdale beats Millwall. This would drop the magic numbers for Bolton to 16, Millwall to 9, Rochdale to 6 and Oxford to 5. Obviously, the lower the magic number, the less the Blades have to do to clinch.
(b) Both matches end in draws, reducing the magic numbers as follows: Bolton 17, Millwall 10, Rochdale 4 and Oxford 3.
Looking ahead to this weekend, while it doesn't seem possible that United will clinch a playoff spot, they could knock out as many as three teams from contention (that is, catching the Blades), if results fall a certain way.
(a) Bristol City will be out if: United wins, United draws, Bristol draws OR Bristol loses. Since Bristol has 78 points as its theoretical maximum, and United has 78 points already, that's why Bristol is on the edge, and so many different outcomes can knock it out.
(b) Oxford United will be out if: they lose to either Bolton or Northampton (this weekend) AND the Blades win, or Oxford loses to BOTH Bolton and Northampton. Their magic number being 5, certain 2-match combinations is what will knock them out.
(c) Rochdale will be out if: they lose to BOTH Millwall and Chesterfield AND the Blades win, or if Rochdale loses to BOTH Millwall and Chesterfield AND the Blades draw.
Thus, if all the results fall just right, United can finish no worse than seventh. Southend and Scunthorpe have too many theoretical points to be knocked out, at least this week.
Given that the Blades play three matches against teams currently in the relegation zone (Port Vale, Chesterfield and Coventry), and two more matches against teams in the bottom half (Oldham and MK Dons), it's going to be very tough for other teams to catch them. Beating either Bradford or Millwall in those matches will produce the obvious effect: seriously denting those teams' chances of catching United.
By my calculations, the magic number for making the playoffs is 7 (a combination of points won and opponents losing points), assuming that four teams are knocked out. The magic number for getting automatic promotion is 15, and the magic number for winning the league is 19. Hence the importance of sweeping those five matches against the bottom half.
