12) Reading
Started last season on fire but could not sustain it and in the end, they missed even the playoffs after having been around the top two for periods of the campaign. They were exciting to watch with fast, attacking football and goals coming from a variety of sources. Talented Michael Olise (Palace hope to make him this seasons Eze with the former QPR man out injured) moves on and they also lost Omar Richards to Bayern Munich in a surprise move (he has been starting friendlies for them as they saw the success of Jude Bellingham for Dortmund). The biggest issue is due to FFP, they have been placed under a transfer embargo and thus with a number moving in, they have only 17 senior players left. Striker Meite is injured too. They still have some real talent and the starting eleven will be fine but do not be surprised if they have to sell more and the likes of Swift, Moore and Puscas could be the next to be sacrificed. These might be the hardest side to predict. They finished 7th last season and some previews have them finishing in the playoffs but I think there is too much to overcome for them to sustain a promotion challenge. There is too much talent left to struggle as other say but of course if they do lose more of the first team left then it will not be a season to enjoy.
11) Swansea
Like Reading and Barnsley, another side that I see taking a bit of a plummet. They do have talent remaining but another side that seems to be in transition somewhat. I also believe Steve Cooper was an impressive manager that was a big part of their success. Cooper’s reasoning for leaving is not yet clear but many feel he had grown disenchanted with the lack of ambition shown to improve the squad and it certainly seems that his thoughts did not align with ownership. However, with no return after three seasons away from the Premier League and the parachute payments ending, the board may not have been able to quite match the ambition of the promising Cooper. Russell Martin, at only 35, is a bold appointment with more experienced campaigners around but Swansea have made some superb choices to lead them with Martinez, Rodgers and will hope this move will work again. He had done well at MK Dons but this challenge provides bigger expectations. Leading scorer Andre Ayew moved to Qatar with his contract up and City unable to keep him on such a high wage. However, they did manage to sign Joel Piroe, a young Dutch forward, but he has hardly been prolific in the Eredivisie thus far. They do have some mainstays returning but as I have discussed for other teams, the loss of the manager and the leading scorer with lesser replacements seemingly, does not normally lead to an upward trend.
10) Middlesbrough
Fresh from giving out signed autographed pictures of himself from a bum bag to keen fans, the inimitable Mr Warnock is back again for ‘one last challenge.’ He is at a ‘club he has always wanted to manage’ under a ‘chairman he has always wanted to work for!’ and ‘fans he has always thought were the best around. Proper fans.’ Joking aside, no one can really question that wherever he goes at this level, he gets results and normally moves them away from trouble up towards the top end. He did this with Boro but they did not quite have the consistency to mount a proper play off challenge last season and at times the results were confusing as they would have impressive victories mixed in with awful defeats, many at the Riverside Stadium. The transfer business was very Warnock with him signing players he knew from before in the likes of Peltier to players that have not quite fulfilled early promise (Ameobi, Ikpeazu). Utility man Crooks will be a Warnock dream in that he is a handful and will do whatever the manager wants and an Argentinian playmaking midfielder that is maybe the antithesis of a Warnock signing. He will hope he is more Adel Taarabt than Ten Heuvel. As for finishing position, they do have some wily players to back up the wily gaffer but have lost Assombalonga and Fletcher up top so I just think they will finish in the exact same position as they did last season. I feel he will then maybe finally bow out until that club he has always wanted to manage comes in for him in another salvage act!
9) Cardiff City
For Boro, see Cardiff. A decent sized club with loyal supporters who have tried different managers in recent times and not really found the link or the results. McCarthy, like Warnock, is maybe not an exciting appointment nor is it one that will be long term. However, he too has steadied the ship, making City hard to beat and delivering the same media friendly barb in his gruff Yorkshire accent. The similarities between both clubs and managers are obvious and this does not end at the top. The playing squads both similarly have some talent with youth coming through backed up by a smattering of experience. However, both squads lack the quality top to bottom to really have a proper go at Promotion. Kieffer Moore will be a big player for City, in moore (geddit!) ways than one! Outside of the front man, Cardiff seem to now lack goals in the squad and opted to let Glatzel, Hoilett and Whyte move on but Ryan Wintle is a talented young player, coming in from Crewe. They have solid, sturdy defenders on Morrison and Flint but also will struggle with pace and athleticism coming at them as the side is set up as physical but lacking craft and individuality with Harry Wilson now signing for Fulham.
8) Luton Town
Now I start predicting some unfashionable sides that I feel are ready to move up and upset some of the bigger and more fancied contenders. Luton with Nathan Jones back in the helm after struggling at Stoke, had a really solid season last time out and went from last day survival in 19-20 to a mid-table finish where at times the playoffs seemed in reach. Jones (like Ferguson at Peterborough) just seems the right for Luton and vice versa. The fans have forgiven him for moving on and all seems right at Kenilworth Road. Longer term they need the move to a new stadium (2024 if all goes to plan is when this move will finally happen) but actually for now, maybe the pokey ground helps them have an advantage at home over bigger sides at this level. They have added to a decent squad who now know they can compete at this level. Experienced players like Jerome and Lansbury come in as does young talent Carlos Mendes Gomes, who was the hero of the Play Off final for Morecambe last season. Onyedinma, Bell and Burke also have been mainstays at this level. Squad depth will not be an issue as it maybe was last time out. They will put a decent fight for a top 6 place.
7) Millwall
Millwall are another side that I feel have all the ingredients to be nearer the top than bottom. In a weaker Championship seemingly, they have the same advantages Luton have. A fervent home crowd allied to a manager who gets the best out of his players. Millwall also made some smart acquisitions too. Saville was excellent when at The Den before and with Jed Wallace still around, those two should be able to thrive. Benik Afobe has lost his way somewhat after being one of the best around at this level a few years ago but expect Rowett to get him firing again. Daniel Ballard also comes in on loan from Arsenal to provide depth at the back to supplement no nonsense defenders Jake Cooper and Murray Wallace. With fans back in ground, the ‘Wall can really use this home advantage and the way they play means they will be hard to play against all season long.
6) Birmingham City
This prediction is a bold one and I could be left with egg on my face but I am not playing it totally safe and feel that there will be a few teams who make a big upward surge. Birmingham are one. They underachieved hugely for much of last season until Bowyer came in and if he had been there all season with the results they had, they would have been much nearer the top end. Maybe it was a new manager bounce but Bowyer did a really good job at Charlton and is well liked by Blue Noses from his time as a player at St Andrews. He made some excellent signings brining in Aneke from his former club but Woods is a player that has definite quality in midfield. They have used the loan market very well seemingly. Chong is an eye-catching signing (look out for his long hair!) from Manchester United on loan. Castillo is also promising young left back from Chelsea. A few loan players came in from Wolves also. Sanderson, who was linked with United, impressed at the Stadium of Light and is seen as a really good defensive prospect. Playoffs might seem a stretch but they have the momentum and with fans back, City can also improve their home form and I feel if they start well then, they could be one of the surprise packets.
5) Queens Park Rangers
Were stuck in a real malaise around the turn of the year but then suddenly after some smart loan signings (Austin, Johansen, Field and De Wijs – all who have now signed permanently – Johansen in particular seems a bargain) they surged up the league and had 15 wins in the calendar year (2021) alone. They may have lost Osayi Samuel and Eze but credit to Warburton who has managed to replace them with Austin and Dykes. They might lack the defensive quality needed but with more attacking talent this time around, they will try and outscore teams. Maybe a playoff assault might be a step too far but as with Birmingham, they ended the season so well and with fans back and goals in the side, they are my biggest surprise tip for the top (to make the playoffs).
4) Sheff Utd
Like with the other two relegated side, the Blades have managed to retain most of their squads but have a new manager also and thus may have a new formation and style. There is pressure on all these sides and fans expectations will be of a promotion campaign and playoffs at the very least. With a new manager and a different way of playing, United fans will need to patient. We have not had the best pre preparation with only 1 meaningful pre season game played and with covid cases not helping. However, on the surface Jokanovic seems to be the best option we could have got. Proven at this level and he has been successful gaining promotion twice. He is known to be quite slow at first in terms of results and getting his players to buy into his methods – hence the patience needed but he will come in and you hope be ruthless if he needs to be. The side and squad has not changed with no major departures (if you do not count Lundstram!) and no incomings whatsoever. Defensively we still need to replace O’Connell and midfield lacks legs and goals for me but the plus side is we have 15 left backs and 28 strikers! Seriously, as it stands, the same argument I have put forth for Fulham and Bournemouth I could say the same for us. We have a number of striking options although McBurnie and Brewster need to start repaying sizeable fees in some way but with old heads like McGoldrick, Sharp and behind them Fleck, Norwood, Basham, Egan and Baldock – the crux of the side is top end Championship easily. The key might be retaining Ramsdale and Berge. Last August our season kind of imploded after losing O’Connell and a bad start – you hope the same does not happen with outgoing transfers and a poor start after the difficult pre season. Quality and experience wise we should be too strong for many at this level. I just fear that the loss of one/both of above may mean top two is beyond us. We also need to endure that Mousset carries his pre season form into the season. A look at the possible backs ups though and you have players like Bogle, Sharp, McBurnie/Brewster, Norrington Davies/Osborn/Stevens (2 of the 3) and some young talent coming though and it is hard to see a Bryan Robson type season when we had a similarly very talented squad coming down from the Premier League. If we keep the two mentioned and can add some energy into the middle of the park – allied to a left sided centre back then we could be even higher. We need to use the loan market as surely, we could/should have the pick of some flight talent – I look at what teams are doing in this area and hope we do not miss the boat. This would be relatively inexpensive and gamble free. It will be interesting how certain players cope with formation changes and the pressing intensity he seems to demand but I feel relatively confident that as long as we do not start badly and thus see possible fan division (will the Wilder v Prince thing come to the fore again if this happens?) and lose key men at the end of August; we will be there or thereabouts. There is too many good players, experience and options for us to not be in the mix – aren’t there?
Like with the Blades, hard one to call really. They have a new manager but have someone who imposed a certain style at Barnsley and no reason why his high intensity driven football will not work with better players. He brought in his former skipper Mowatt to help replicate the style he operated so well at Oakwell and even though some experienced players did move on, that might be a good thing due to how Ismail likes to operate – not sure any would have been seen as starters regardless of their experience and the loan players were not going to return anyway. Pereira is a fantastic footballer and Diangana also can unlock defenses’ with his pace. Sawyers and Livermore in midfield will also be strong at the lower level and Grant and Robinson should also score goals against weaker defenses’. They actually lack the same depth of United but maybe have a bit more quality and pace to break sides down who will sit in against the better sides.
2) Bournemouth
I am still not totally sure about Scott Parker yet which is odd to say as he has been a manager for a while now and not sure why he was targeted specifically by Bournemouth, who of course needed to upgrade from Woodgate – who did ok but was not really ready to take them on the next step. They were close last season but managerial changes, injuries and lack of consistency saw them not quite make an immediate return. Parker though has done it before with Fulham and is a year older in managerial terms of experience. It is not all about talent but you scan down the side and squad and they have not lost any key men and the forward/creative players all remain. David Brooks finally seems fit (scored a wonder goal in the opening round of the Carabao Cup) but we have heard that before so will wait and see. Ben Pearson gives them steel in the middle of the field to add to the quality of Lerma, Cook and Billing. Marcondes gives them a bit of a wild card – if he can find the form, he showed in his early days at Brentford then it just another option that defenses will struggle to cope with. Solanke, Stanislas, Danjuma and Brooks is a fairly frightening array of forwards. Defensively I am still a little concerned they have the back ups they need but with the striking options it might not matter! The key is keeping them fit and retaining them before the end of the window of course with Danjuma and Brooks the type of forwards some lower Premier League teams may be circling to pick off.
1) Fulham
It might be a stretch for all the top 4 to be with teams with new managers but the three relegated sides and Bournemouth, do seem to have far stronger and deeper squads than any of the other sides. It might be seen as a lazy prediction to go with those as the top 4 but I just feel with the strength in depth and power/pace/goals these sides have up top, that it will be tough for any team to unseat them. Of course, if any of them lose players or have a bad start, then pressure ramps up and fan unrest may see boardrooms panic. Silva seemed an odd choice as he had lost his way at Everton and he has managed 7 clubs and is only 45. He did really well at Watford of course before and Fulham will hope his time away will have recharged the batteries. Fulham have become the perennial yo-yo side – the new West Brom if you like. They have things a better attempt last time but ultimately still went down in the end. Scott Parker moved on which seemed a surprise but the squad he left albeit bereft of many of the loan players he opted to use, still has plenty of quality. Cairney, Mitrovic, Decordova-Reid, Cavaleiro, Knockaert, Reed, Bryan, Carvalho, the list goes on. They should be too much for most teams and the fact they spent 12 million+ on a player in Wilson shows they still have the spending power that no other team will possess at this level. They have the best squad by some way. It’s a toss-up between them and their former manager, Parker who wins the league.
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As a further bit of fun here are my predictions for the other leagues:
Premier League –
Man City
Other top 4 – Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd
Relegated – Watford, Burnley and Crystal Palace
League One –
Promoted – Charlton, Ipswich and Sunderland (Playoffs)
Other Playoffs – Rotherham, Sheff Wed and Wycombe
Relegated – Morecambe, Wimbledon, Cheltenham, Doncaster
League Two –
Promoted – Newport, Exeter and Salford
Other Playoffs – Tranmere, Forest Green, Mansfield, Port Vale
Relegated – Hartlepool, Stevenage
Champions League – PSG beating Barcelona
FA Cup – Man Utd
League Cup – Aston Villa