Steve Mackan
Greasy Wilder
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2016
- Messages
- 1,050
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Well okay... 44. But the table shows 42. And I'm a bit obsessed with the significance of the 20-game mark. Only two teams in the last 15 years have failed to get promoted of the 25 teams with 40+ points from 20 games (one of them Leeds last season). Of the 23 that did get promoted, 20 made it via automatics. See table below.
Of course, nothing is set in tablets of stone. We could have a miraculous decline. But realistically, Boro, Blackburn, WBA and Watford are almost certainly not going to make the automatics and very unlikely to overtake our final tally. Which leaves Sunderland, Burnley and Leeds. I expect Leeds to keep up their PPG (2.05) and make top 2 - best squad. Burnley probably have second best squad, but are so weird; a team that seemingly can defend but cannot attack. And then Sunderland, who look pretty good, but also pretty young and potentially that's a downside in the post-xmas slog. All four in it, but as soon as any gap opens up, it becomes increasingly unlikely for a team to claw it back. The top 4 simply don't drop enough points.
Then there's us. And it kinda feels like we're due a regression of a kind; I'm sure that'll happen. Let's say our points tally for the rest of the season drops off around 20%, from 2.20 ppg now to 1.80 ppg for the rest of the season. Our final total would still be.... erm, 89 points, which will be enough automatics, or at least likely within 1x game margin of the top 2.
I raise all this because last night at Millwall the negativity of some fans was utterly ridiculous at times (some people around me anyhow - young and old). It's almost as if people forget that there's an opposition to play, and they aren't just going to roll over. We're going to lose games and teams are going to gain ground at some point (like Boro did in Hecky promotion). But there's no reason to think over the rest of the season that our form will deviate any more than anyone else's. Just wish some fans - and by no means all - could be a bit more positive, and ideally a bit more vocal. We're in the best position in a Championship season for two decades, a better than 50% chance of promotion. Better off enjoying it now, cos whatever happens, next season won't be as fun.
TL;DR -- don't forget the maths!
Of course, nothing is set in tablets of stone. We could have a miraculous decline. But realistically, Boro, Blackburn, WBA and Watford are almost certainly not going to make the automatics and very unlikely to overtake our final tally. Which leaves Sunderland, Burnley and Leeds. I expect Leeds to keep up their PPG (2.05) and make top 2 - best squad. Burnley probably have second best squad, but are so weird; a team that seemingly can defend but cannot attack. And then Sunderland, who look pretty good, but also pretty young and potentially that's a downside in the post-xmas slog. All four in it, but as soon as any gap opens up, it becomes increasingly unlikely for a team to claw it back. The top 4 simply don't drop enough points.
Then there's us. And it kinda feels like we're due a regression of a kind; I'm sure that'll happen. Let's say our points tally for the rest of the season drops off around 20%, from 2.20 ppg now to 1.80 ppg for the rest of the season. Our final total would still be.... erm, 89 points, which will be enough automatics, or at least likely within 1x game margin of the top 2.
I raise all this because last night at Millwall the negativity of some fans was utterly ridiculous at times (some people around me anyhow - young and old). It's almost as if people forget that there's an opposition to play, and they aren't just going to roll over. We're going to lose games and teams are going to gain ground at some point (like Boro did in Hecky promotion). But there's no reason to think over the rest of the season that our form will deviate any more than anyone else's. Just wish some fans - and by no means all - could be a bit more positive, and ideally a bit more vocal. We're in the best position in a Championship season for two decades, a better than 50% chance of promotion. Better off enjoying it now, cos whatever happens, next season won't be as fun.
TL;DR -- don't forget the maths!
