Run-in Stats

[Jim Chimmerney]

I've updated with the number of points of the 3rd place team at the end of the season.
View attachment 10803

A win on Saturday puts us on 54 after 32 games and in line with Oxford (96), Stockport (97), Leeds (10), Southampton (11). All were in 5th place or lower on similar points. The points per game range for these clubs was 2.14 - 2.64. When you look at the points they actually needed to achieve promotion indication is we will need around 2.3 - 2.4 points per game on average meaning 33-34 points and therefore can afford to drop 8-9 points only from remaining games.

Yep, I was reckoning on dropping no more than 10 points which is around what your stats are showing. We're looking at something like 11 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats.

 

[MobileBlade]

Win Satdi would out us on 55 pts Moby

Still think Preston have the edge with the 7 points in hand they have on us with same number of games played and the players coming back (Garner)
Brizzle will kick on again now Wilbrahim is back in the fold

Anticipate Swindon and MKD to drop points (Dele Alli is a blow to MKD)

We will get 3rd place in my estimation - and fuck up the POF

I was thinking we were on 51 pts now not 52. Whilst that point may make difference at end of season, I don't think it matters for this exercise.

I will put my neck on the line and say is we drop only 8 or 9 points for the remainder of the season we will go up automatically. 88 points will be enough this season.

If I get chance in next couple of days I will drill down those 4 seasons mentioned to show why I think so.

 

[JohnDenver]

If I get chance in next couple of days I will drill down those 4 seasons mentioned to show why I think so.

No need - I'm happy blaming your medication.

 

[Highbury_Blade]

I was thinking we were on 51 pts now not 52. Whilst that point may make difference at end of season, I don't think it matters for this exercise.

I will put my neck on the line and say is we drop only 8 or 9 points for the remainder of the season we will go up automatically. 88 points will be enough this season.

If I get chance in next couple of days I will drill down those 4 seasons mentioned to show why I think so.

Me too 87 or 88 I think will be the magic number depending on Goal difference.

 

[SUFC Handsworth]

our goal difference would improve enormously if we put the said amout of wins together so it is possible, lets enjoy the ride for as last night proved we are going to have to dig out some wins and although it was uncomfortable towards the end ,great feeling when the final wistle blows.plenty more like that to come! phew¬ hope the old ticker can take it.Being blades we;re used to it! bring it on.

We're going to have to go some to catch up MK Dons +35 goals diff from our +9!!!

 

[Highbury_Blade]

We're going to have to go some to catch up MK Dons +35 goals diff from our +9!!!

The only way we'll beat their goal difference is if they go on a shit run. And then the goal difference won't matter anyway.

 

[Davie Blade]

I précised a similar thread back in January.

I'm not sure how relevant 20 years stats are,so I'd be more inclined to look at the last 10 years.

That shows average of 87 gets second but the run-in 14 games average is 29.1, .
IF Preston win their game in hand that makes two clubs on 62 points.
Adding 29 to 62 gives 91.
With 2 clubs in the mix it seems highly likely that at least one of them is going to hit the average at get at least 91 points.
This is of course to ignore Swindon only 2 point back of this!

Thus it is making 92 our target with inferior GD.

So we need 40 points from a possible 45. .
Room to lose just 1 game.
I said at the halfway stage we could afford to lose only 3 more games, well we've lost 2 in getting from 23 games to 31 games!

We need a Southamptonesq run.
Which I cant EVER see happening at all from this side.

 

[Davie Blade]

The easy precise
Good spreadsheet wrong interpretation Mobile.

MK and possibly Preston (win game in hand) are both on 62, which is 4 ahead of the average.

Add 4 to the end of season average hey presto 90/91.

Simples

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

The spanner in the works is that MKD, Swindon and PNE all have to play each other, PNE also play Brizzle. If all these games finish in draws and we win on the same days, this brings it all a lot closer. Win the game in hand and all of a sudden it's down to 3 points

 

[MobileBlade]

I précised a similar thread back in January.

I'm not sure how relevant 20 years stats are,so I'd be more inclined to look at the last 10 years.

That shows average of 87 gets second but the run-in 14 games average is 29.1, .
IF Preston win their game in hand that makes two clubs on 62 points.
Adding 29 to 62 gives 91.
With 2 clubs in the mix it seems highly likely that at least one of them is going to hit the average at get at least 91 points.
This is of course to ignore Swindon only 2 point back of this!

Thus it is making 92 our target with inferior GD.

So we need 40 points from a possible 45. .
Room to lose just 1 game.
I said at the halfway stage we could afford to lose only 3 more games, well we've lost 2 in getting from 23 games to 31 games!

We need a Southamptonesq run.
Which I cant EVER see happening at all from this side.

Without going into the detail, as it would take too long and bore everyone to death, you will see that there is little difference between the 10 years and 20 years but by taking the wider range gives more data and with it more accuracy. On the four seasons I mentioned earlier, in three of them the positions of the top 4 were very similar to the situation this year.

I haven't had chance to check how they played each other but this year remember that Swindon and Preston still have the other three in the top 4 to play, whilst MK Dons have Preston and Swindon to play. 21 points to play for there and in the best case scenario only 14 of them will be won.

IF each of the those averaged 2 points per game from the games not involving each other (which based on the current form of Swindon and Bristol City is unlikely but nevertheless) and Preston did win their game in hand then the situation would be

Bristol City 89
MK Dons 84
Preston 81
Swindon 80

If Bristol City and MK Dons do win their matches against the other two then yes, obviously, 88/89 will not be enough but in reality it will be.

 

[Davie Blade]

Without going into the detail, as it would take too long and bore everyone to death, you will see that there is little difference between the 10 years and 20 years but by taking the wider range gives more data and with it more accuracy. On the four seasons I mentioned earlier, in three of them the positions of the top 4 were very similar to the situation this year.

I haven't had chance to check how they played each other but this year remember that Swindon and Preston still have the other three in the top 4 to play, whilst MK Dons have Preston and Swindon to play. 21 points to play for there and in the best case scenario only 14 of them will be won.

IF each of the those averaged 2 points per game from the games not involving each other (which based on the current form of Swindon and Bristol City is unlikely but nevertheless) and Preston did win their game in hand then the situation would be

Bristol City 89
MK Dons 84
Preston 81
Swindon 80

If Bristol City and MK Dons do win their matches against the other two then yes, obviously, 88/89 will not be enough but in reality it will be.

Sorry Mate
More data doesn't mean more accuracy. It means ignoring current trends.
Sport has moved on and cricket scoring rates is a prime example.

Taking the last 10 years shows significant upward trend on EVERY criteria of your spreadsheet.
So on average Clubs are needing more points to gain promotion and are going on better last 14 games runs.
e.g last 10yrs 29.1 vs previous 10 is 26.3 . Nearly 3 points more.
29,1 points from 14 games of course represents more than 2 points a game.
It's a similar story for second and third place.


The correct figures for your 2 points a game table EXCLUDING playing each other is
Bristol City 91
MKD 86
Preston 83
Swindon 82

So it isn't the final table as points are certain to be gained by one side.

Despite what some might think the top clubs each playing each other is a real downside to our chances.

When those points are added in to the table
The middle column showing the spread of possible additional points by playing each other
The last column shows the final table with a best scenario of all the games ending draws.
Bristol City 91 0+6 93
MKD 86 0+6 88
Preston 83 0+9 86
Swindon 82 0+9 85

Given that only one of the 3 clubs has to go on a 2 point a game run (a feat bettered in 5 out of the last 8 years) and then take 1 win (MKD) or 2 wins (Preston or Swindon) in their crunch games and some one is topping 89 points.

 

[Athens Blade]

They made their own luck. We could have still fucked up even with Ched in the squad.

We lost at home to Oldham and let a two goal lead slip against the spawny fucking pigs that season. They were the defining points.

 

[Davie Blade]

If I get chance in next couple of days I will drill down those 4 seasons mentioned to show why I think so.

Oxford and Stockport went up with 82 and 83 points not going to be anywhere near good enough this season.
Too many clubs this season miles ahead of the 83 target.
That can be ignored completely.

Leeds went on a 35 from 42 run and got up with 86 points again highly unlikely that will be enough this season.
MK and Preston would both have to have the worst recorded finish in 8 years.

Southampton had an amazing season.
They sacked Pardew in August.
Atkins started with loads of defeats and were 22nd after 7 games.
They went on a amazing run.
Losing only 3 times after their 19th game.

They only conceded 38 goals scored 86 for a GD of 48!
They kept 19 clean sheets!
Amazingly they only won 7 of their 28 games by a single goal.
8 times they score 4 goals or more.
There lies the huge difference to us I'm afraid, and why it is fanciful bollocks to even think we will do it.


Saints epic run in.

 

[MobileBlade]

Sorry Mate
More data doesn't mean more accuracy. It means ignoring current trends.
Sport has moved on and cricket scoring rates is a prime example.

Taking the last 10 years shows significant upward trend on EVERY criteria of your spreadsheet.
So on average Clubs are needing more points to gain promotion and are going on better last 14 games runs.
e.g last 10yrs 29.1 vs previous 10 is 26.3 . Nearly 3 points more.
29,1 points from 14 games of course represents more than 2 points a game.
It's a similar story for second and third place.


The correct figures for your 2 points a game table EXCLUDING playing each other is
Bristol City 91
MKD 86
Preston 83
Swindon 82

So it isn't the final table as points are certain to be gained by one side.

Despite what some might think the top clubs each playing each other is a real downside to our chances.

When those points are added in to the table
The middle column showing the spread of possible additional points by playing each other
The last column shows the final table with a best scenario of all the games ending draws.
Bristol City 91 0+6 93
MKD 86 0+6 88
Preston 83 0+9 86
Swindon 82 0+9 85

Given that only one of the 3 clubs has to go on a 2 point a game run (a feat bettered in 5 out of the last 8 years) and then take 1 win (MKD) or 2 wins (Preston or Swindon) in their crunch games and some one is topping 89 points.

I know you are querying my maths, but MK Dons currently have 62 points from 32 matches. Ignoring the other two 4 sides they have to play, that would leave them with 12 matches to play. 12 x 2 (points per game) = 24. 62 + 24 = 86. I think we were both wrong!

Understand what you are saying about the upward trend in cricket (mainly thicker bats) but we are still using the same football as 20 years ago and a win only gives you the same number of points. There were three exceptional years in the past 10 years (2010/11/12) if you take these three out of the equation then the other 7 years actually averaged less than the previous 10 years so I cannot agree with your argument.

EDIT: Sorry misread your post re the maths. But the last bit still holds.

 

[MobileBlade]

Just to add, I think to get a true reflection we would need to add the number of points on average by the other team that got promoted in the final 14 games, and maybe the whole top 5. I will try and look at that over the weekend.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Oxford and Stockport went up with 82 and 83 points not going to be anywhere near good enough this season.
Too many clubs this season miles ahead of the 83 target.
That can be ignored completely.

Leeds went on a 35 from 42 run and got up with 86 points again highly unlikely that will be enough this season.
MK and Preston would both have to have the worst recorded finish in 8 years.

Southampton had an amazing season.
They sacked Pardew in August.
Atkins started with loads of defeats and were 22nd after 7 games.
They went on a amazing run.
Losing only 3 times after their 19th game.

They only conceded 38 goals scored 86 for a GD of 48!
They kept 19 clean sheets!
Amazingly they only won 7 of their 28 games by a single goal.
8 times they score 4 goals or more.
There lies the huge difference to us I'm afraid, and why it is fanciful bollocks to even think we will do it.


Saints epic run in.


View attachment 10830

I know you are querying my maths, but MK Dons currently have 62 points from 32 matches. Ignoring the other two 4 sides they have to play, that would leave them with 12 matches to play. 12 x 2 (points per game) = 24. 62 + 24 = 86. I think we were both wrong!

Understand what you are saying about the upward trend in cricket (mainly thicker bats) but we are still using the same football as 20 years ago and a win only gives you the same number of points. There were three exceptional years in the past 10 years (2010/11/12) if you take these three out of the equation then the other 7 years actually averaged less than the previous 10 years so I cannot agree with your argument.

EDIT: Sorry misread your post re the maths. But the last bit still holds.

Two wins aand draw better than who ever holds second place gets us up.

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

hampton had an amazing season.
They sacked Pardew in August.
Atkins started with loads of defeats and were 22nd after 7 games.
They went on a amazing run.
Losing only 3 times after their 19th game.

They only conceded 38 goals scored 86 for a GD of 48!
They kept 19 clean sheets!
Amazingly they only won 7 of their 28 games by a single goal.
8 times they score 4 goals or more.
There lies the huge difference to us I'm afraid, and why it is fanciful bollocks to even think we will do it.


Saints epic run in.


View attachment 10830

Yeah but they also wear red and white stripes. Fanciful bollocks, or near certainty? Only time will tell.

 

[Blade56]

Looking like a Bristol and Preston way they are playing and SCORING with their big STRIKERS.

best outcome, wouldn't want Preston in play offs tbh

 

[Guesty]

Looking like a Bristol and Preston way they are playing and SCORING with their big STRIKERS.

best outcome, wouldn't want Preston in play offs tbh

We'd have to spot them two goals from Gallagher's free kicks, for one thing.

 

[grafikhaus]

More data doesn't mean more accuracy. It means ignoring current trends.

Well here's a trend for you:



Bristol, obviously, are looking good. Thirteen matches left to play - some against rivals - and they haven't had a 'blip' yet. Team in second place - MKD - are a bit becalmed. Doesn't surprise me at all. They've lost both Afobe and Alli. United, a solid February (P:7, W:4 D:2 L:1). Preston look good - same points as MKD (62), but same games as us (32). BUT, sixth place has changed again and they're killing each other (only a four point increase (from 44 pts. to 48 pts.) in the last six games.

Yes, Preston have again shown the form you need at this stage, Their run-in fixtures aren't too daunting. Lots to play for yet.

 

[super_pig]

Looking like a Bristol and Preston way they are playing and SCORING with their big STRIKERS.

best outcome, wouldn't want Preston in play offs tbh

interesting .. best mate here is a Preston fan and they say the same about us

 

[Blade56]

Well here's a trend for you:

View attachment 10847

Bristol, obviously, are looking good. Thirteen matches left to play - some against rivals - and they haven't had a 'blip' yet. Team in second place - MKD - are a bit becalmed. Doesn't surprise me at all. They've lost both Afobe and Alli. United, a solid February (P:7, W:4 D:2 L:1). Preston look good - same points as MKD (62), but same games as us (32). BUT, sixth place has changed again and they're killing each other (only a four point increase (from 44 pts. to 48 pts.) in the last six games.

Yes, Preston have again shown the form you need at this stage, Their run-in fixtures aren't too daunting. Lots to play for yet.

Oh I love a good graph......

interesting .. best mate here is a Preston fan and they say the same about us

Nah, 5 straight wins in league 3 home 2 away, they are on a roll and we are dropping behind them.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

A bit too early to be 'peaking' for the playoffs for PNE but at this rate they're looking at auto. Grayson knows what he's doing in this League.

Anyway, after yesterday:

Based on season form:

Brizzle 98
PNE 89
MK 86
Swindon 85
Blades 76

Last 8 form:

Brizzle 96
PNE 92
Blades 83
MK 80
Swindon 77

Last 3 form:

PNE 104
Brizzle 96
MK 88
Swindon 78
Blades 76

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Not going to happen folks............

Season form;

Brizzle 99
PNE 88
MK 84
Swindon 83
Blades 74

Last 8 form;

Brizzle 97
PNE 91
MK 77
Blades 76
Swindon 72


Last 3 form;

Brizzle 109
PNE 93
Swindon 77
MK 74
Blades 70

 

[Rodders]

Not going to happen folks............

Season form;

Brizzle 99
PNE 88
MK 84
Swindon 83
Blades 74

Last 8 form;

Brizzle 97
PNE 91
MK 77
Blades 76
Swindon 72


Last 3 form;

Brizzle 109
PNE 93
Swindon 77
MK 74
Blades 70

I await BTL to prove you wrong Jim.

 

[Tezza1889]

Said the same back in jan, got called a cunt for it..

Form is form.... nigel is a consistently average manager..

Average with derby millions
Average with our millions..

Average in the championship
Average in league one.....

Average, mid table, boring, always somebody elses fault, vindictive and possibly racist?

But hey, he's called clough so he must be a winner, we just need to give him more time...


Anybody with anything about them would have smashed this league with our budget and finances, and some talent, which clough clearly lacks...

 

[longinthe toothblade]

I reckon we can afford to drop 6 points max

Well that's the 6 points gone - in a week

Any clowns out there still tipping us for auto?

Any one out there who still thinks the play offs are a certainty?

UTB

 

[longinthe toothblade]

Well that's the 6 points gone - in a week

Any clowns out there still tipping us for auto?

Any one out there who still thinks the play offs are a certainty?

UTB

I'll assume that's No and No then