Run-in Stats Re-visited

[Highbury_Blade]

I'll update whilst the going's good

Based on season average:

Blades 74
Peterboro 68
Barnsley 67
Rochdale 66
Bradford 65
Doncaster 64
Chesterfield 63
Fleetwood 63

Based on last 8 form:

Barnsley 75
Blades 73
Peterboro 71
Rochdale 67
Bradford 64
Fleetwood 63
Doncaster 61
Chesterfield 61


Based on last 3 form:

Blades 80
Peterboro 72
Rochdale 71
Barnsley 68
Fleetwood 63
Doncaster 61
Bradford 61
Chesterfield 60

Automatic is back on i reckon

 

[blade too long]

Automatic is back on i reckon

mathematically possible, but on a par with winning the grand national on a shetland pony

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Yeah the disappointment of missing out on the autos is a big factor. Been there done that, prefer it this way. There must be a stat out there but can't be arsed to check, I reckon the 3rd placed teams don't win the playoffs as often as you'd expect.

We have positive memories of Wembley too for a change which will help.

I seem to remember 3rd just about finishes on top of the winners league but it's only around 30 odd % of the time. They do tend to reach the final more often than not but then lose as many as they win when it matters.

 

[Blade82]

I seem to remember 3rd just about finishes on top of the winners league but it's only around 30 odd % of the time. They do tend to reach the final more often than not but then lose as many as they win when it matters.

In the last four seasons in league one the 4th placed team has won the playoffs. Rotherham, Yeovil, Huddersfield, peterbough. Beating the 3rd placed team in the final on every occasion too. Better catch mk quick !!!

 

[Blade56]

Important game this weekend for all play off contenders, all got 'easy' games, banana skins ahoy!
Blades v Crewe
Peterborough v Coventry
Bradford v Oldham
Rochdale v Yeovil
Bristol v Barnsley .......tough game but we beat em at their ground

 

[Darren]

Yeah the disappointment of missing out on the autos is a big factor. Been there done that, prefer it this way. There must be a stat out there but can't be arsed to check, I reckon the 3rd placed teams don't win the playoffs as often as you'd expect.

We have positive memories of Wembley too for a change which will help.

We have lost play offs when finishing:

3rd 2003, 2009, 2012
5th 1997, 2013
6th 1998

We have never finished 4th since the play offs came in. Maybe that is the lucky position

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Automatic is back on i reckon

Someone else at last.

 

[blade too long]

We have lost play offs when finishing:

3rd 2003, 2009, 2012
5th 1997, 2013
6th 1998

We have never finished 4th since the play offs came in. Maybe that is the lucky position

its only our 3rd league one play off , 3rd time lucky
itll be Clough teams first , which is more relevant, the striking thing about those previous play off losses is they are all in the past.

 

[TonyAgana]

Given that we've generally played better away for large parts of this season i'm not sure chasing down 4th is as vital as it may seem..

Based on stats, maybe - but our home draws / defeats have mostly been drab and flat affairs. Play-off games with a full-house are a totally different matter.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Based on stats, maybe - but our home draws / defeats have mostly been drab and flat affairs. Play-off games with a full-house are a totally different matter.

Whilst I think Clough's style would be more suited by a solid away leg first anyway, if we know we HAVE to win a game at BDTBL there's no more intimidating ground when we're up for it.

 

[raul]

Whilst I think Clough's style would be more suited by a solid away leg first anyway, if we know we HAVE to win a game at BDTBL there's no more intimidating ground when we're up for it.

Sheffield United 1 Wigan 2
Sheffield United 2 Stevenage 2
Sheffield United 2 Tottenham Hotspur 2


* cue BTL in 5.....4.....

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

I am predicting that the team finishing in 6th place will get less than 70 points

*fewer

;-)

 

[Blade56]

If we get a solid result at home the pressure will be on the home team in second leg!

Won't it?

 

[Kenilworth]

mathematically possible, but on a par with winning the grand national on a shetland pony

You know what? If that happened I think I would be shouting so much that I would feel a little horse

 

[Kenilworth]

Yeah the disappointment of missing out on the autos is a big factor. Been there done that, prefer it this way. There must be a stat out there but can't be arsed to check.

The stat is that if you're Sheffield United and you get to a play off final ...................................... you're fucked

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

If we get a solid result at home the pressure will be on the home team in second leg!

Won't it?

True, and it would depend how much we had to play with goals wise. The likelihood is though that Clough would go and defend what we have and that's a dangerous game, Yeovil springs to mind.

 

[Liaminho9]

Looking at the table i would much rather face Swindon or Peterborough (or whoever finishes 6th) at Wembley than MK Dons.

 

[dingledog]

You have to beat whoever you play, not our strong point at Wembley.

 

[mattbianco1]

The 'Top 2' now dead and buried, we now switch to the clubs new goal of cementing 5th or 6th

Think we should be targeting a 4th place finish so that we can get the 2nd Play Off Leg at home

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Think we should be targeting a 4th place finish so that we can get the 2nd Play Off Leg at home

To be honest, with the likelihood it'll be MK Dons whether we finish 4th or 5th, I don't think it'll really matter, both games will be ultra tight affairs as they always are whether home or away in the 1st leg. Having said that, Swindon's next three games are MK, Brizzle and Peterborough so there may still be a twist or two yet. Keep saying it though, momentum and confidence, if we have both of those, we shouldn't have any fears whoever it is.

 

[mattbianco1]

To be honest, with the likelihood it'll be MK Dons whether we finish 4th or 5th, I don't think it'll really matter, both games will be ultra tight affairs as they always are whether home or away in the 1st leg. Having said that, Swindon's next three games are MK, Brizzle and Peterborough so there may still be a twist or two yet. Keep saying it though, momentum and confidence, if we have both of those, we shouldn't have any fears whoever it is.

The good thing is we can take 7k to MK Dons away

 

[Blade56]

Radio pig today, Barnsley fans up for next week and so they should be. If they win (and I can't see any other outcome on form and mental attitude) that will make our 5 point cushion look sorry.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Think we should be targeting a 4th place finish so that we can get the 2nd Play Off Leg at home

Finishing 7th would save a lot of misery.

 

[Blade56]

Finishing 7th would save a lot of misery.

And grief

 

[Large Mendonca]

And grief

and money

 

[Dkc]

This season has so far been very strange, in that as in today, many of the games we're expected to win, we lose But then we have won quite a few that we weren't expected to, most notably Bristol City away.

It's impossible to predict the results of our final seven games. I believe we will still make the Play Offs, but it will be tight right to the end and we might just scape in in 6th. Here are my predictions.

Barnsley (a) - L
Doncaster (h) - D
Oldham (a) - L
Yeovil (a) - W
Bradford (h) - W
Leyton Orient (a) - W
Chesterfield (H) - W

13 points from the last 7 games would be a decent haul that would put us on 74 points which should be enough. However, we have three tough games coming up and if we fail to win any of them we could find ourselves in 7th. If that happened, fan dissatisfaction might play a big part in how we perform in the final four games.

Of course we could beat Oldham and / or Doncaster, and a loss to Yeovil wouldn't be a big surprise.

One thing to say amidst all the negativity is that it could actually be an exciting end to the season.

 

[Blade56]

If that happened, fan dissatisfaction might play a big part in how we perform in the final four games.

Interesting view Dkc. Are you suggesting on the back of a total of 10 points from 33 (1 from next 9) the high level of fan dissatisfaction will drive the team to win the last 4?

If we only take 1/9 I don't think we will make play offs!

Tbh I am so deflated I could not predict how many players we will field in goal let alone the results! I'm hoping the high level of confidence amongst the Dingles and our urgent situation will drive NN to have a go and blag a win.

Play offs? Who knows?

 

[grafikhaus]

But then we have won quite a few that we weren't expected to, most notably Bristol City away.

And Peterborough & MKD away and - possibly - Preston at home. Apart from that, I'm struggling.

The fact is, we've lost too many we should have been expected to win. Play-offs or not, it's been a poor season.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

This season has so far been very strange, in that as in today, many of the games we're expected to win, we lose But then we have won quite a few that we weren't expected to, most notably Bristol City away.

It's impossible to predict the results of our final seven games. I believe we will still make the Play Offs, but it will be tight right to the end and we might just scape in in 6th. Here are my predictions.

Barnsley (a) - L
Doncaster (h) - D
Oldham (a) - L
Yeovil (a) - W
Bradford (h) - W
Leyton Orient (a) - W
Chesterfield (H) - W

13 points from the last 7 games would be a decent haul that would put us on 74 points which should be enough. However, we have three tough games coming up and if we fail to win any of them we could find ourselves in 7th. If that happened, fan dissatisfaction might play a big part in how we perform in the final four games.

Of course we could beat Oldham and / or Doncaster, and a loss to Yeovil wouldn't be a big surprise.

One thing to say amidst all the negativity is that it could actually be an exciting end to the season.

It could well be an exciting end to the season but they could just as easily kick us all in the nuts.

On the subject of BC away being notable, if people sat down and listed teams who should be in each league I'd suspect many wouldn't put them in the Championship so no, whilst they were top of the league it wasn't notable just an indication of how far we have fallen.

 

[grafikhaus]

Well that's Preston (Second) gone. Thirteen points ahead of us and a game in hand. Only one promotion place to play for now.

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And I'm sure, after the Barnsley game, our chances will look even more precarious.

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